Is Pakistan poised for default in FY 2024?

[epebble]

Only Eritrea and maybe Venezuela on this list can be compared to Pakistan. The other countries are far more developed, having a population that pays taxes and is productive. Pakistan has neither. The gameplan is and has always been to borrow new loans to pay the older loans and the interest and kick the can down the road. It seems IMF has had enough of that.

Eritrea is the African analog of Lebanon. A small coastal state riven by factionalism for so long that it atomizes into desert dust.
Venezuela defies comprehension. Probably a South American regime that corresponds to North Korea.

 

[HerbertPervert]

Eritrea is the African analog of Lebanon. A small coastal state riven by factionalism for so long that it atomizes into desert dust.
Venezuela defies comprehension. Probably a South American regime that corresponds to North Korea.

You know... at the rate Pakistan is going, maybe even Somalia will rank above it.

 

[ziaulislam]

Debt isn't the problem, rather the decreasing ability to repay it. With PTI, exports & remittances were on upwards trajectory so we thought things were looking bright. Then came PDM to reverse all that and take it down even further.

If a very big if a national consensus govt forms and overseas Pakistanis aren't afraid of their investment you will see massive uplift of foreign investment

As we saw during Khan era

Exports are tricky but atleast in the most lowest value exports ..textiles and low hanging IT the potential is huge and is not a major problem

In other words what pakistan needs is national govt and more importantly for the people to final agree that khata hey tu lagata be hey isn't a smart thing


For now according to Pakistani law corruption is halal, the recent amendment said that anyone can accumulate unexplained wealth and that's okay or legal

I won't be surprised if tomorrow a new law states murder is fine if it's done by MNA since both laws are against common sense (law)

 

[HerbertPervert]

If a very big if a national consensus govt forms and overseas Pakistanis aren't afraid of their investment you will see massive uplift of foreign investment

As we saw during Khan era

Exports are tricky but atleast in the most lowest value exports ..textiles and low hanging IT the potential is huge and is not a major problem

In other words what pakistan needs is national govt and more importantly for the people to final agree that khata hey tu lagata be hey isn't a smart thing


For now according to Pakistani law corruption is halal, the recent amendment said that anyone can accumulate unexplained wealth and that's okay or legal

I won't be surprised if tomorrow a new law states murder is fine if it's done by MNA since both laws are against common sense (law)

And this is why I think the current suffering of people is absolutely necessary. It's the only way the people will learn this lesson that "khata hey tu lagata be hey" is not okay and is the reason why they're suffering.

 

[epebble]

The gameplan is and has always been to borrow new loans to pay the older loans and the interest and kick the can down the road. It seems IMF has had enough of that.

The cynics who have been running the country probably don't see any irony in that much effort went into creating a new nation only for it to become a parasite.

 

[ziaulislam]

And this is why I think the current suffering of people is absolutely necessary. It's the only way the people will learn this lesson that "khata hey tu lagata be hey" is not okay and is the reason why they're suffering.

100% agree

The other lesson is that being a rental state is also not okay. Central punjab has been having parties because they rented out rest of state. They still remember 2013-2017 era of being a rental state bringing in 60-70b in CSF IMF WB AB AND CPEC loan.

I think Pakistan needs nawaz sharif to rule another 5 yrs without any foreign aid so people can finally have their software updated because some still think savior is sitting in London

 

[HerbertPervert]

100% agree

The other lesson is that being a rental state is also not okay. Central punjab has been having parties because they rented out rest of state. They still remember 2013-2017 era of being a rental state bringing in 60-70b in CSF IMF WB AB AND CPEC loan.

I think Pakistan needs nawaz sharif to rule another 5 yrs without any foreign aid so people can finally have their software updated because some still think savior is sitting in London

Don't forget to include PPP also selling out KPK to drones in 2008-2012 and Zardari's famous words "Collateral damage worries you Americans. It doesn't worry me."

We've seen now that the so-called "good administrator" or best CM Punjab, as described by many Lahoris, Shehbaz Sharif turned out to be horrible for the country. Sharif's without foreign aid (CSF) or loans (CPEC) are useless.

 

[ziaulislam]

Don't forget to include PPP also selling out KPK to drones in 2008-2012 and Zardari's famous words "Collateral damage worries you Americans. It doesn't worry me."

We've seen now that the so-called "good administrator" or best CM Punjab, as described by many Lahoris, Shehbaz Sharif turned out to be horrible for the country. Sharif's without foreign aid (CSF) or loans (CPEC) are useless.

There still some confusion.

Let PMLN rule another 5 yrs so these delusions are settled

I don't see any rental situation that will bail the sharifs out this time.

Arabs, Chinese and Americans have no interest in Pakistan

If and when Pakistanis wake up and bring the right people

Pakistan has incredible potential..it has vast resources, fertile land and large growing population, perfect location and hard working populace(toughest construction work and hardest working people are Pakistanis but outside Pakistan!!)

But problem is religion and ethnic mindset..punjabis Sindhis won't vote for someone outside of their bradery

People who don't know how to pray and hence are practically "kafir" are the biggest followers of all the religious motivates fanatism in Pakistan

Not sure how this is going..munir won't backup..so only way this is going to end is either Khan dies or brigadiers under corps commanders do coup...

I don't see any other way out

Protest won't work as military will fire, they killed millions in bengal and won't shy doing it again

I initially thought central punjab protest will do the trick but as many have pointed out it was surprising that current leadership didn't even care about their own x personal

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

No we won't default. There are quite a few sensible people in Pakistan who won't allow that to happen.

 

[epebble]

Zardari's famous words "Collateral damage worries you Americans. It doesn't worry me."

I was not aware of that quote. The proper context for it is:

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

www.nation.com.pk

What had happened was, the drone strike was killing some 'American' terrorists and that was causing political problems for U.S. government in U.S.

 

[ziaulislam]

Will Pakistan default???
No

Why??
Because it's already in technical default
And
It doesn't care about it population

If it cared about its population it would have opted for restructuring rather then weird taxation on poor people through billing on sub 100 units power consumers

Srilankan and Argentina defaulted because they couldn't damage their civilians more...but pakistanis elite don't care so they wont default..the creditors will always give you more time ..they don't want to loose their money altogether

I was not aware of that quote. The proper context for it is:

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

www.nation.com.pk

What had happened was, the drone strike was killing some 'American' terrorists and that was causing political problems for U.S. government in U.S.

Zardari and sharifs are manifestation of Pakistanis

They define us...and represent us

Sure you may not like themNOW but your family did between 1985-2023

 

[HerbertPervert]

I was not aware of that quote. The proper context for it is:

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

Collateral damage worries you Americans, not me: Zardari

www.nation.com.pk

What had happened was, the drone strike was killing some 'American' terrorists and that was causing political problems for U.S. government in U.S.

That is fine. Even if the quote is taken out of context, he still authorized a surge in drone strikes, far more than Musharraf had tolerated. It's clear Zardari did not have the lives or interests of Pashtuns at heart when making these decisions driven by money.

 

[TheSolution]

Military rule would have to care less about maintaining vote banks in the short term.


If they succeed economically, they will still be able to rule.


Of course, if they fail hardcore, they will be overthrown in time.

Military has shown time and time against that they don't fight for Pakistan's interests, but rather their own

What use is their dictatorship if its not for the interests of the country

 

[HerbertPervert]

Will Pakistan default???
No

Why??
Because it's already in technical default
And
It doesn't care about it population

If it cared about its population it would have opted for restructuring rather then weird taxation on poor people through billing on sub 100 units power consumers

Srilankan and Argentina defaulted because they couldn't damage their civilians more...but pakistanis elite don't care so they wont default..the creditors will always give you more time ..they don't want to loose their money altogether


Zardari and sharifs are manifestation of Pakistanis

They define us...and represent us

Sure you may not like themNOW but your family did between 1985-2023

I feel debt restructuring is inevitable. The IMF loan is not enough and I'm sure Pakistan, with its decreasing cash flows and increasing debt servicing, will run out of money soon.

Imran Khan shouldn't come back to this bankrupted country. Fixing it requires painful decisions enforced by the rifle, something which I feel only the current GHQ is willing to do.

 

[epebble]

That is fine. Even if the quote is taken out of context, he still authorized a surge in drone strikes, far more than Musharraf had tolerated. It's clear Zardari did not have the lives or interests of Pashtuns at heart when making these decisions driven by money.

But if Zardari believed most of the terrorists are foreigners and therefore have to be taken out, it is hard to blame him. I think every Pakistani government has used military assets against suspected terrorists, even when they did not think they are foreigners. The raid on the mosque comes to mind.