Is Pakistan Losing Another Decade Like the Lost Decade of 1990s?

[RiazHaq]

Did the developed countries of the world have dictatorships when they were developing? And what in your opinion is the time frame of development? How many of the developed countries of the world had dictators?

The arguement you make of continuous military rule can also be turned on its head and said, if the military had not stepped in every now and then Pakistan would be much better place. And for this, I would place USA, England, France and the rest. From developing to developed, could you please highlight when they had dictatorships?

Unlike Asian Tigers, the developed countries took centuries to develop. Democracy does not promote rapid growth as is obvious by the huge and growing gap between China and India.

As China's share of the world's extreme poor (living below $1.25 per day per person level) has dramatically declined, India's share has significantly increased. India now contributes 33% (up from 22 % in 1981). While the extreme poor in Sub-Saharan Africa represented only 11 percent of the world’s total in 1981, they now account for 34% of the world’s extreme poor, and China comes next contributing 13 percent (down from 43 percent in 1981), according to the World Bank report titled State of the Poor.

Haq's Musings: India's Share of World's Poorest Jumped From 22% to 33% in 30 Years!

Biggest blunder of Musharaf was indeed ignoring energy infrastructure to support GDP growth after sanctions were lifted soon after 9/11. And PPP also didn't do anything to correct this.

Think like this, N have initiated many huge projects that will start generating electricity in 3-4 years. So lets assume next time PTI or PPP win election. From 2018 onwards because of projects completed GDP growth will be higher, and load shedding less.

PPP inherited poor energy infrastructure but they didn't do much to change that like N is doing, basically they were only thinking short term.

There was little load-shedding during 2000-2007 because Pakistan had, and still has, surplus power generation capacity to power its homes and industries.

The big problem since 2008 is cost and theft contributing to circular debt and under-utilization of installed capacity.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Suffer Load-shedding While Power Companies' Profits Surge

 

[SrNair]

Unlike Asian Tigers, the developed countries took centuries to develop. Democracy does not promote rapid growth as is obvious by the huge and growing gap between China and India.

As China's share of the world's extreme poor (living below $1.25 per day per person level) has dramatically declined, India's share has significantly increased. India now contributes 33% (up from 22 % in 1981). While the extreme poor in Sub-Saharan Africa represented only 11 percent of the world’s total in 1981, they now account for 34% of the world’s extreme poor, and China comes next contributing 13 percent (down from 43 percent in 1981), according to the World Bank report titled State of the Poor.

Haq's Musings: India's Share of World's Poorest Jumped From 22% to 33% in 30 Years!

Wrong assumption.How can you find out the real poor in India?.
On the basis of basic facilities?.Well I saw a small house in TN wen I visited my friend that house is a small house without a toilet but have a Benz car in front of it.I enquired more about that guy and I could realise that guy is too rich ,but in govt records he is extreme poor .Guess what.
We dont have a sufficient method to find out real poor people.
You may know about SI state Kerala.
We have the HDI of developed nations.But I personally knows state govt officials
who have salary of more than 50000/rs per month that is still find place in BPL card.
But in China they have their own methods and foreign NGO cant analyse inside the PRC and world knows about the data released by Chinese authorities .
But they did a good job and they actually reduced their poor numbers.

 

[RiazHaq]

Wrong assumption.How can you find out the real poor in India?.
On the basis of basic facilities?.Well I saw a small house in TN wen I visited my friend that house is a small house without a toilet but have a Benz car in front of it.I enquired more about that guy and I could realise that guy is too rich ,but in govt records he is extreme poor .Guess what.
We dont have a sufficient method to find out real poor people.
You may know about SI state Kerala.
We have the HDI of developed nations.But I personally knows state govt officials
who have salary of more than 50000/rs per month that is still find place in BPL card.
But in China they have their own methods and foreign NGO cant analyse inside the PRC and world knows about the data released by Chinese authorities .
But they did a good job and they actually reduced their poor numbers.

Your arguments make no sense. No one questions the huge and growing gap between India and China.

Haq's Musings: Indian Economic Miracle is Deceptive!

 

[damdam786]

There was little load-shedding during 2000-2007 because Pakistan had, and still has, surplus power generation capacity to power its homes and industries.

The big problem since 2008 is cost and theft contributing to circular debt and under-utilization of installed capacity.

Haq's Musings: Pakistanis Suffer Load-shedding While Power Companies' Profits Surge

Before 2007 energy demand was meet with very very cheap hydro power. Because of GDP growth of 7-8% between 2004-2007 energy demand exploded including gas. Now the only way to generate electricity is with expensive oil.

Energy theft is going on since 47.

 

[RiazHaq]

Before 2007 energy demand was meet with very very cheap hydro power. Because of GDP growth of 7-8% between 2004-2007 energy demand exploded including gas. Now the only way to generate electricity is with expensive oil.

Energy theft is going on since 47.

The hydro component was and still very small. The bulk of power is generated by oil-fired plants.
They can not generate power without fuel and they can't buy fuel unless they are paid. That's the crux of the issue.
The theft has dramatically increased as has the cost of fuel since 2008 adding up Rs. 1 billion per day in debt.

Haq's Musings: Corruption & Incompetence Hobble Pakistan Power Sector

 

[SrNair]

Your arguments make no sense. No one questions the huge and growing gap between India and China.

Haq's Musings: Indian Economic Miracle is Deceptive!

Yes ,you are right my argument makes no sense to you.
Because you create all this cards of lie on the basis of demerits of democracy.
That is one hell of the mistake.You can see poor people in any others cities like US.China is a special case ,they know how to bulldozer one's house with out any justice.
And you dont know anything about India except some city visit or internet articles.
Things like I posted here earlier happens in India.Due to arrogancy of some officials lot of rich people still find their place in BPL.And when some foreigners take poor people math this people will also include in that list.
I am an Indian I know the things happening in India.

 

[B+ Dracula]

Although I must confess, Pakistan often bucks the trend. We are often growing when the world is stagnating and vice versa... Because of our crazy systems and huge black economy, not much is certain about Pakistan.

like Pakistani Cricket team - Win with South Africa - Lost with Zimbabwe

 

[RiazHaq]

Yes ,you are right my argument makes no sense to you.
Because you create all this cards of lie on the basis of demerits of democracy.
That is one hell of the mistake.You can see poor people in any others cities like US.China is a special case ,they know how to bulldozer one's house with out any justice.
And you dont know anything about India except some city visit or internet articles.
Things like I posted here earlier happens in India.Due to arrogancy of some officials lot of rich people still find their place in BPL.And when some foreigners take poor people math this people will also include in that list.
I am an Indian I know the things happening in India.

Your assumption that I have not seen India is deeply flawed as is your knowledge of India.

Data from reliable and independent sources confirms that India has been and still is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates most of whom still defecate in the open.

Haq's Musings: 63 Years After Independence, India Remains Home to World's Largest Population of Poor, Hungry and Illiterates

 

[SrNair]

Your assumption that I have not seen India is deeply flawed as is your knowledge of India.

Data from reliable and independent sources confirms that India has been and still is home to the world's largest population of poor, hungry and illiterates most of whom still defecate in the open.

Haq's Musings: 63 Years After Independence, India Remains Home to World's Largest Population of Poor, Hungry and Illiterates

I already told you may visit some cities in India.But dont judge whole India with that knowledge.
Who creates reliable data?
You ,GoI ,UN or some other nations.
India have hopes like I mentioned earlier.Most of poor you figured out is just concentrated in BIMARU.And in that MP and Bihar has more than 18% growth annually.SI is quite developed and it is only increasing in coming years.
Some points you posted here is just a cultural thing .Dont make that is an excuse for poverty except some NI states.
Friend you are talking to an Indian.I know my country.And it advantages and disadvantages.

 

[Progressive1]

Need time , economy was in deep slump, FDI negligible, bomb blasts/power cuts rampant during elections. It took whole year to put some life into economy and it is showing signs of recovery. We will see improvement in couple of years as the power cuts decrease below 3 hours. Your right democracy results in slow decision making and implementation but that can be substantially avoided if all parties agree on a "centrist" agenda and actually all major political parties of Pakistan have almost similar economic outlook/vision.

 

[RiazHaq]

I already told you may visit some cities in India.But dont judge whole India with that knowledge.
Who creates reliable data?
You ,GoI ,UN or some other nations.
India have hopes like I mentioned earlier.Most of poor you figured out is just concentrated in BIMARU.And in that MP and Bihar has more than 18% growth annually.SI is quite developed and it is only increasing in coming years.
Some points you posted here is just a cultural thing .Dont make that is an excuse for poverty except some NI states.
Friend you are talking to an Indian.I know my country.And it advantages and disadvantages.

The World Bank data shows that India's poverty rate of 27.5%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than Pakistan's 17.2%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with similar or lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.

Haq's Musings: World Bank on Poverty Across India in 2011

 

[SrNair]

The World Bank data shows that India's poverty rate of 27.5%, based on India's current poverty line of $1.03 per person per day, is more than 10 percentage points higher than Pakistan's 17.2%. Assam (urban), Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are the only three Indian states with similar or lower poverty rates than Pakistan's.

Haq's Musings: World Bank on Poverty Across India in 2011

Really ???in our poor Kerala illegal immigrants from BD and people from poor NI states are in competition for manual labour like in contruction.Because we dont have locals for that job.Same goeas to TN and other SI states.

 

[Progressive1]

Really ???in our poor Kerala illegal immigrants from BD and people from poor NI states are in competition for manual labour like in contruction.Because we dont have locals for that job.Same goeas to TN and other SI states.

How Indian Punjab stands in comparison to other south Indian states.

 

[SrNair]

How Indian Punjab stands in comparison to other south Indian states.

Punjab is developed like us .But Kerala is front runner when it comes to HDI.But Punjab is also ahead us in many other fields.Except what we called us BIMARU all others are either developed or nearly developed.And in this BIMARU Bihar and MP is growing in exorbitant GDP growth.
About 2030 MP become present Kerala or Punjab.

 

[liall]

As long as we hit $1trillion GDP by 2025 I am moderately satisfied.

This mess will take a looooong time to clean up my friends.

250 Billion $ - 2014 to 1 trillion in 2025? 4 times in 11 years when your current growth is 4% is kinda expecting too much.