Is China going down the same path as Japan with its ageing population?

[Mista]

When the French slut can have 2.0 TFR, I dont see why East Asian, who have shown inclination to families, in all surveys, are incapable of having babies.

The problem is not the people but the elites who suck people dry using 50 years mortgage.

You cant ask the people to give birth on one hand, and have punitive policies such as mortgage, high tuition, high medical cost...etc. Basically in Singapore, people are one disease away from bankruptcy and financial ruins.

You're the banned member... Lux de Veritas right?

 

[HannibalBarca]

When the French slut can have 2.0 TFR, I dont see why East Asian, who have shown inclination to families, in all surveys, are incapable of having babies.

The problem is not the people but the elites who suck people dry using 50 years mortgage.

You cant ask the people to give birth on one hand, and have punitive policies such as mortgage, high tuition, high medical cost...etc. Basically in Singapore, people are one disease away from bankruptcy and financial ruins.

Speaking about yourself?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

That's what they saidbefore the industrial revolution. Farmers are going to lose their jobs. As technology improves, people's demand will grow too. Eg; Smartphones, TVs etc.

You simply haven’t seen full industrialization in your countryside yet. There are still plenty of farmers with buffalo working your fields. As your wealth grows you will see all that disappear as people will find farming about as appealing as working in some assembly line job. Those who remain will simply buy up the others and use machinery to work the land. One farmer will do the work of many in the past.

Farms these days in the US are all mechanized. No animals pulling plows or hauling loads.

 

[antonius123]

China’s demographic picture is starting to look a lot like Japan’s, with new births in decline, a shrinking workforce and an ageing population, according to the latest official data.

While China’s headline growth accelerated to 6.9 per cent in 2017 from 6.7 per cent in 2016, its demographic statistics are less positive.

Despite the nationwide introduction of a two-child policy in 2015, the number of new births fell to 17.23 million last year, from 17.86 million in 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. At the same time, the labour force – defined as those aged between 16 and 59 – shrank by more than 5 million last year.

Meanwhile the proportion of people aged over 65 has continued to rise. This age group accounted for 11.4 per cent of China’s total population at the end of last year, up from 10.8 per cent a year earlier, according to the statistics bureau data. That means China has 158.31 million people aged over 65 – more than the population of Russia.

Although the greying population is not as acute as Japan’s – where more than a quarter of people are aged over 65 and adult diapers now outsell baby diapers – researchers warn China may face similar challenges down the track to those Japan is grappling with.

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said Beijing’s policy to allow couples to have a second child had failed, and it needed to encourage people to have children if it was to avoid become like Japan.

“I think China will totally abandon its family planning policy in 2018,” Yi said.

President Xi Jinping has been gradually relaxing China’s population controls since he came to power in 2012. The notorious one-child policy, which was introduced in 1979 to control population growth, was relaxed in late 2013, with couples allowed to have a second child if either parent was an only child. Two years later, the one-child policy ended and all couples were allowed to have two children.

But now, researchers say the ageing population, along with a shrinking labour pool, could drag down economic growth in the long run.

The government’s harsh population control measures have reduced the number of new births by an estimated 200 million in the past four decades, undermining the country’s growth potential, according to research led by Zhou Tianyong, deputy director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies at the Central Party School in Beijing.

“If no strong measure is taken to address [the loss of population] ... the cumulative damage stemming from a shrinking labour force on consumer demand, incomes and GDP output will only get bigger,” Zhou wrote in a journal article in the latest edition of Research on Financial and Economic Issues.

The effects of the changing demographics are already being seen. The government is under mounting pressure as provincial pension funds rapidly run out of money as the greying population puts a strain on the social security scheme. Close to half of China’s provincial pension funds are in deficit, as the burden shifts to the younger workforce to support the elderly, according to a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences this month.

The problem is particularly severe in the northeastern provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, where the proportion of retirees has risen as the size of its labour force has declined as workers go elsewhere, the report said.

Affluent coastal areas such as Guangdong and cities like Beijing have more money to cover pensions because they tend to attract migrant workers, the academy found.

In his speech to the Communist Party congress in October, Xi said China would promote “the coordination of childbirth policies with other economic and social policies”, dropping the usual reference to “family planning”.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...ng-down-same-path-japan-its-ageing-population

Don't forget about 4th Industrial Revolution that I have explained to you in other similar thread

Labour force appeared after 1st Industrial Revolution, and will disappear after 4th Industrial Revolution accompanied by possibility of social & political revolution.

Even US, Europe and Japan can regain her once used to be a labor intense manufacturing back if they utilize fully automation - robots and AI, hence aging population wont be important issue anymore for economic growth & health.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Even US, Europe and Japan can regain her once used to be a labor intense manufacturing back if they utilize fully automation - robots and AI, hence aging population wont be important issue anymore for economic growth & health.

Europe and the US are not interested in going back to the days of intense manufacturing. The level of pollution of land, air, and water was not sustainable. Laws were passed to stop it. All the pollution you see in China used to be on the other side of the planet. Robots aren’t going to solve this.

 

[antonius123]

Europe and the US are not interested in going back to the days of intense manufacturing. The level of pollution of land, air, and water was not sustainable. Laws were passed to stop it. All the pollution you see in China used to be on the other side of the planet. Robots aren’t going to solve this.

I dont think so.

The drive of business is "profit". The main drive of many US - Europe - Japan companies moved their production to China and other developing countries, and been outsourcing to China is "cost reduction" due to "cheaper labor cost" rather than environment cost (environment penalty, etc). Therefore if the robot and AI could help them to reduce manufacturing cost, there is no reason for them not to move back manufacturing to their lands.

Besides, intense labor manufacturing not always produce high pollution.

Robot alone may not be able to solve the pollution problem, but other technology such as AI, chemical eng, etc & other energy resource "CAN" reduce the pollution. Imagine in the future there will be abundant of SHALE GAS, and 4th Generation Nuclear Power Plant including Fusion Technology. They are all clean energy. See how China the heavy weight manufacturing nation has been successfully reducing pollution, and it is ongoing along with the technology progress.

 

[52051]

Europe and the US are not interested in going back to the days of intense manufacturing. The level of pollution of land, air, and water was not sustainable. Laws were passed to stop it. All the pollution you see in China used to be on the other side of the planet. Robots aren’t going to solve this.

Exactly, the US should stick to printing papers, hypes and fake news, and see how much longer this ponzi scheme can last.

 

[Menthol]

To be fair I don't think Japan government has short sight. They had realized the internet revolution no late than Americans. The problem is, changes are not welcomed for Japanese. Japanese companies never fire workers and workers never change their job in whole lives. Japanese like doing one thing from top to the bottom and doing one thing generation by generation. That's their national character. The good side of it is they make good quality. The bad side is their society loses adaptation or has very slow response to the changes.

I read news from Japan several years ago when many of Japanese large company went financial difficulty.

Their analysis was something like what I explained above.

For example Sony. They may be aware about internet, but they unable to follow the change what internet bring. And they unable to make bombastic products to utilize it. Even if the product fail in Japan, at least, it will success in international market.

Their politicians are also look down on China. Because of pride, and USA persuasion that USA is going to crush China. Japanese politicians took gambling and confident that China will be crushed.

I dont think so.

The drive of business is "profit". The main drive of many US - Europe - Japan companies moved their production to China and other developing countries, and been outsourcing to China is "cost reduction" due to "cheaper labor cost" rather than environment cost (environment penalty, etc). Therefore if the robot and AI could help them to reduce manufacturing cost, there is no reason for them not to move back manufacturing to their lands.

Besides, intense labor manufacturing not always produce high pollution.

Robot alone may not be able to solve the pollution problem, but other technology such as AI, chemical eng, etc & other energy resource "CAN" reduce the pollution. Imagine in the future there will be abundant of SHALE GAS, and 4th Generation Nuclear Power Plant including Fusion Technology. They are all clean energy. See how China the heavy weight manufacturing nation has been successfully reducing pollution, and it is ongoing along with the technology progress.

Agree!

I think the recent years of green revolution campaign is actually good to bring back manufacturing with automation.

4th industrial revolution + green campaign.

Theoretically thou... I don't know much about the implementation on the reality, whatever it really clean with the increase of production.

Don't underestimate AI. It can replace massive human workers. For instance, unmanned drive can make millions of taxi/truck drivers unemployed. And it will become reality in the near future. This is just a tip of the iceberg. Even for human workers, the rising productivity will make things worse. Growing demand caused by more population can never catch up with technology improvement.
I'm not saying I want fewer population. I believe China's government will find a way to solve the problem if it wants to. The CCP is really good at handling tough tasks.

I think the biggest problem with the coming of AI and complete automation will be workforces.

And no one have any idea how to solve it. What kind of economy and social model that is going to work and progressing.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I read news from Japan several years ago when many of Japanese large company went financial difficulty.

Their analysis was something like what I explained above.

For example Sony. They may be aware about internet, but they unable to follow the change what internet bring. And they unable to make bombastic products to utilize it. Even if the product fail in Japan, at least, it will success in international market.

Their politicians are also look down on China. Because of pride, and USA persuasion that USA is going to crush China. Japanese politicians took gambling and confident that China will be crushed.
.

Japan was known for high-end consumer electronics and cars. Stereo television, PC’s, and the mp3 killed them.

In the 80’s people would pay crazy money for cameras, camcorders, and Japanese stereo equipment. Also once you bought a car the first thing you did was replace the crappy analog radio with some suped-up Japanese aftermarket digital one. At home people would buy racks with dual cassette players, VCRs, CD players, equalizers, receivers, phonographs, tall speakers. People would even plug their monosound TVs into them and enjoy great sound. When you went out you had your Sony Walkman, Japanese camera and camcorder.

All these products everybody had (just think of it like how popular cell phones are today) and the cost for all these items was well over $5000 (in 1980’s money) Everybody bought them. Japan had a huge money machine going in consumer electronics.

Then each one of these components became obsolete...and the money machine ran out of steam.

First stereo TV sets came out. Now instead of the crappy tinny sound it was not bad. So people didn’t have an urgent need to connect the tv anymore. Rack market share takes a hit. Stereos in cars improve with digital dials and CD players becoming standard. Aftermarket car stereos take a hit. Then PC’s with CD burners appeared and so the dual tape deck was dead. Then mp3’s became popular and nobody burned CD’s for music anymore. The iPod kills the Walkman. Everything centered on the computer. Then cable tv became popular and the VCR was not needed. The entire rack system and all the billions it generated was effectively dead. Samsung starts becoming popular as a tv maker. Japanese electronics take another hit. Now when you buy a car it comes with a decent stereo with multiple speakers. The need for an aftermarket one is not there anymore. The sales of cameras and camcorders takes a big hit when smart phones do the same job.

Japan never recovered. No popular mp3 player to outdo the iPod and no huge market share PC success. Samsung owns the TV market. Cell phones play mp3’s, take pictures, and play the role of the camcorder. No popular Japanese cell phones.

Japanese consumer electronics have no market share anymore. It’s as simple as that. No matter what they do those days are permanently over.

What was $5000 back in the 1980’s can be replaced with a typical car, PC, a cellphone, internet streaming, and a flat screen tv. A good 27” tv cost $2000 in 1985 (Sony Trinitron XBR). You can buy one for around $100 now. You can buy a cell phone and a PC for just a few hundred too. That’s a huge drop from the $5000 of 30 years ago.

You may think today there is lots of money in consumer electronics...well it doesn’t compare to yesteryear when it was insane money on a whole line of products. Now it is just a smart phone, laptop, and a flat screen tv. Not much else.

 

[Menthol]

Japan was known for high-end consumer electronics and cars. Stereo television, PC’s, and the mp3 killed them.

In the 80’s people would pay crazy money for cameras, camcorders, and Japanese stereo equipment. Also once you bought a car the first thing you did was replace the crappy analog radio with some suped-up Japanese aftermarket digital one. At home people would buy racks with dual cassette players, VCRs, CD players, equalizers, receivers, phonographs, tall speakers. People would even plug their monosound TVs into them and enjoy great sound. When you went out you had your Sony Walkman, Japanese camera and camcorder.

All these products everybody had (just think of it like how popular cell phones are today) and the cost for all these items was well over $5000 (in 1980’s money) Everybody bought them. Japan had a huge money machine going in consumer electronics.

Then each one of these components became obsolete...and the money machine ran out of steam.

First stereo TV sets came out. Now instead of the crappy tinny sound it was not bad. So people didn’t have an urgent need to connect the tv anymore. Rack market share takes a hit. Stereos in cars improve with digital dials and CD players becoming standard. Aftermarket car stereos take a hit. Then PC’s with CD burners appeared and so the dual tape deck was dead. Then mp3’s became popular and nobody burned CD’s for music anymore. The iPod kills the Walkman. Everything centered on the computer. Then cable tv became popular and the VCR was not needed. The entire rack system and all the billions it generated was effectively dead. Samsung starts becoming popular as a tv maker. Japanese electronics take another hit. Now when you buy a car it comes with a decent stereo with multiple speakers. The need for an aftermarket one is not there anymore. The sales of cameras and camcorders takes a big hit when smart phones do the same job.

Japan never recovered. No popular mp3 player to outdo the iPod and no huge market share PC success. Samsung owns the TV market. Cell phones play mp3’s, take pictures, and play the role of the camcorder. No popular Japanese cell phones.

Japanese consumer electronics have no market share anymore. It’s as simple as that. No matter what they do those days are permanently over.

What was $5000 back in the 1980’s can be replaced with a typical car, PC, a cellphone, internet streaming, and a flat screen tv. A good 27” tv cost $2000 in 1985 (Sony Trinitron XBR). You can buy one for around $100 now. You can buy a cell phone and a PC for just a few hundred too. That’s a huge drop from the $5000 of 30 years ago.

You may think today there is lots of money in consumer electronics...well it doesn’t compare to yesteryear when it was insane money on a whole line of products. Now it is just a smart phone, laptop, and a flat screen tv. Not much else.

Japanese is trying to revive it, but fail I think.

Sony with Xperia smartphones, OLED TV, etc. I think Japanese products are good, and in my opinion are well thought made. But I don't know, it fail to win the market.

After electronic consumer products, I think 2-3 decades later their car will take a hit as well, with the rise of smart car like Tesla, Nio and Byton like cars.

I wonder whatever Japanese is really smart like they what used to be?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Japanese is trying to revive it, but fail I think.

Sony with Xperia smartphones, OLED TV, etc. I think Japanese products are good, and in my opinion are well thought made. But I don't know, it fail to win the market.

After electronic consumer products, I think 2-3 decades later their car will take a hit as well, with the rise of smart car like Tesla, Nio and Byton like cars.

I wonder whatever Japanese is really smart like they what used to be?

I think they are good at visualizing what a completed electronic device should look like and how it should be built but when it comes to something abstract like software they get tripped up.