Still, it is strange. There is now an atmosphere in the Western camp and in Israel that a preemptive strike against Iran is only a matter of time.
And yet, Iranians seem to have no sense of crisis at all, thinking that they are the only ones who are safe.
It is like looking at Ukraine before the war. When people are in the position of a party to a war, they think things conveniently and their eyes are clouded.
Already the U.S. and Israel have agreed on a plan for a major attack on Iran, and it is being actively reported in Israel that they are rapidly preparing for war.
There is a massive buildup of air power, rapid development of an air defense network with US cooperation to contain an Iranian counterattack, plans for an attack on Syria/Lebanon, agreements for the IDF to use air bases in Greece and Cyprus, and cooperation in air defense networks with Saudi Arabia/Jordan is underway.
Meanwhile, it seems as if the Iranians are willingly and ineptly trying to get attacked.
If the Iranian regime and media were behaving like the West and my own country, Japan, the media would already be running daily specials on war preparations and mobilization, and the country would be fortifying itself at full speed.
If one observes the situation then your view is a possibility that is correct. But this does not mean that this scenario you mentioned is the only possible and probable scenario. Are you sure that you can exclude all other possibilities?
I think that it is possible to complete the view. The fact that the West, especially the USA and the Zionists, want to force Iran to fulfill their will by military means can certainly be considered as a fact.
It is also obvious that this military alliance is increasing the air defense and other core areas in the region which are aimed at the biggest military threats from Iran. In addition, a number of other preparatory measures have been taken in recent times to create the basis for a military conflict with Iran. However, this dynamic is not only on the Western side, but Iran is also acting dynamically and adapting to the circumstances. There have been many previously unknown developments in Iran, especially in the recent past, that have shattered the equations of U.S. and Zionist strategists.
These include
- -Prätzision of the missiles
- -expansion of air defenses in Syria
- -increasing resistance of Iranian missiles to missile defense systems
- - establishment of various underground and camouflaged missile bases with the ability to fire them at high frequency
- -establishment of advanced radar technology
- -development of advanced drone systems
- -increasing Iranian access to foreign defense technologies especially since the beginning of the Ukraine war
This list could be continued. The point here is not to show Iran's various defense technologies and therefore to ascribe Iran a stronger defensive power, but that even if certain nations have decided to want to wage a war against Iran, they do so on the basis of the current Iranian means and possibilities do. Since the Iranian means and possibilities are constantly changing and are always going through dynamic processes, it cannot be said that the West has a master plan, but must constantly adapt to the conditions. In the past there have often been plans to attack Iran, but the fact of the dynamic changes in Iran means that the West has had to constantly rethink its plans.
Therefore, it is certainly no coincidence that Iran is now building up hypersonic capacities, has presented ICBM or has bought Su 35, etc.
These releases are once again shifting the balance of power on the drawing board of western war strategists and they will have to adjust their plans again and, if necessary, work at length to find solutions to new Iranian threats before the attack comes. It's a game of dynamics.
Scenario: Iran is to be attacked. Actors: USA, Israel, Saudi, UAE, Jordan on the one hand against Iran and its allies on the other.
What would be the goals of the West?
- Destruction of the nuclear program (primary objective)
- Implementation of a long-term military naval blockade against Iran (secondary objective)
- Reduction of the Iranian military arsenal to a less serious level (secondary objective)
- Destroy Iranian allies, particularly in Lebanon and Syria, or reduce their power to a manageable level (secondary objective/primary objective)
From the West's point of view, the following framework conditions would have to be met for a war:
- War must not last long as the West is already at war with Russia and is also expending enormous resources. Too long a conflict in West Asia with a simultaneous war in Ukraine could tempt China to get involved with Taiwan without the West being able to do anything about it because too many resources would be tied up in two major theaters of war.
- The West must not be seen as an aggressor, which is why Iran would have to be provoked in order to be able to sell it to the public as a defensive act. You would have to provoke an Iranian action that justifies a reason for war. But Iran won't agree to that. The west's last attempt was certainly to trigger the mass unrest in iran. I assume that Iran saw through this plan and therefore solved the problem very professionally considering that there were so few deaths in relation to the extent of the unrest.
There are certainly more conditions to mention. But the first condition alone is difficult to meet. Especially considering the fact that Iran is just putting its new cards on the table.
