IRI survey sees opposition sweeping polls

[mujahideen]

IRI survey sees opposition sweeping polls

By Anwar Iqbal

WASHINGTON, Feb 11: President Pervez Musharraf’s popularity has hit an all-time low while opposition parties can have a landslide victory in the Feb 18 elections, said an opinion survey released on Monday.

The surveyors – Washington-based International Republican Institute – noted that a major victory for opposition parties could force the president to step down.

Released a week before the parliamentary elections, the survey predicted a bleak future for the former ruling party, PML-Q.

As many as 79 per cent Pakistanis told the surveyors that if PML-Q wins, they will consider the elections rigged. And 58 per cent said they will participate in a protest if the elections are rigged.

The two main opposition parties – PPP and PML-N – have the backing of a combined 72 per cent of those surveyed.

The surveyors noted that former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has had an enormous impact on the political landscape; both as a setback to President Musharraf as well as a boost to her party’s numbers.

When asked if they felt that Ms Bhutto’s death had weakened the federation, 93 per cent agreed.

Pakistan is also facing economic difficulties; 94 per cent agreed that the shortages of wheat, petrol and electricity were serious problems. These bread and butter issues remain the top concern in the minds of Pakistani voters.

Also important to voters, is the declining sense of security. Voters expressed concern regarding rising extremism; 73 per cent agreed that religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan.

The randomly selected sample consists of 3,485 adult men and women from 223 rural and 127 urban locations in 50 districts in all four provinces of Pakistan. The margin of error for the national sample is plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.

According to the survey, Pakistan People’s Party has gained substantial support since Ms Bhutto’s assassination in December. Half of those surveyed said they plan to vote for PPP, with the next highest total, 22 per cent, intend to vote for PML-N.

When asked about the direction that the country was headed, an all-time high of 84 per cent said it was headed in the wrong direction while an all-time low of 15 per cent said in the right direction; this represents a 14 point increase in the wrong direction number and an 11 point drop in the right direction number.

President Musharraf: The vast majority of Pakistanis want President Musharraf out of office, with 75 per cent wanting his resignation and 16 per cent opposed; six per cent replied maybe. The number calling for his resignation has increased eight points from the last poll.

When Pakistanis were asked which one leader was the best person to handle the country’s problems, only eight per cent named him this time around; this is a drop of 15 points since the last poll.

When asked how they would feel about the future of the country if Mr Musharraf resigned, 62 per cent of the respondents said very good and another 17 per cent said good, for a combined 79 per cent.

If President Musharraf’s support among Pakistanis has plummeted, PPP co-chairman Asif Zardari is not doing much better either.

Asif Zardari and Makhdom Amin Fahim: When asked who they would prefer to lead PPP until Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes of age, 66 per cent chose Makhdom Amin Fahim. Mr Fahim was also the choice of 77 per cent to be PPP’s candidate for prime minister.

When asked if they liked or disliked various political personalities, 66 per cent said they liked Makhdom Amim Fahim, 55 per cent saikd they liked Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and 37 per cent said they liked Mr Zardari.

Jailed lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan was liked by 37 per cent as well, an increase of 24 per cent since the last survey.

Best Suited to lead Pakistan: Asked to choose the one person they believed could best handle the problems facing Pakistan 32 per cent said Makhdom Amin Fahim. PML-N chairman Nawaz Sharif came in second at 23 per cent. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (14 per cent), Mr Musharraf (eight per cent), and former chief minister of Punjab Pervez Elahi (five per cent) rounded out the top five.

Elections: Interest in the elections remains high. When asked if they were planning on voting, 90 per cent of respondents said that they were either very or somewhat likely to vote.

When asked if they supported the delay in the elections from its original date to February 18, Pakistanis were surprisingly split, with 51 per cent saying that they supported the delay while 43 per cent opposed.

However, when they asked why they thought the elections had been delayed, 57 per cent said that it was because Mr Musharraf feared that PML-Q would not win, while 39 per cent said that it was due to legitimate security concerns.

When asked if they would support a postponement of the elections for up to one year, voters were overwhelmingly opposed: 85 per cent said they would oppose such a postponement.

The idea of President Musharraf resigning and the elections being held under a unity government had the support of 69 per cent.

IRI survey sees opposition sweeping polls -DAWN - Top Stories; February 12, 2008

 

[mujahideen]

People want Fahim as PM: IRI

* 90pc planning to vote
* Poll claims Pakistanis already convinced PML-Q will lose
* 75pc demand Musharraf’s resignation

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: An International Republican Institute (IRI) poll released on Monday revealed that 77 percent of Pakistanis would prefer Makhdoom Amin Fahim to be the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)’s candidate for prime minister. According to the IRI poll, which represents a sample of 3,845 adults who were questioned between January 19 and 29, 66 percent of the respondents said they wanted Makhdoom Amin Fahim to lead the PPP until Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes of age. On the likeability of various political personalities, 66 percent said they liked Makhdoom Amin Fahim, 55 percent said they liked Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and 37 percent said they liked PPP Co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari. When asked to choose their top choice for prime minister, 56 percent opted for PPP’s Makhdoom Amin Fahim, while 15 percent chose PML-N’s Javed Hashmi and 12 percent supported PML-Q’s Pervaiz Elahi. Interest high: The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.69 percent, showed that interest in the elections remains high, with 90 percent of respondents saying they were either very likely, or somewhat likely to vote. Support for the political parties appeared to centre on the PPP, with it winning 44 percent of the support in Punjab, 74 percent in Sindh, 37 percent in NWFP and 44 percent in Balochistan. Already decided: According to the IRI, Pakistanis have already decided that the PML-Q should not win. On which party would win the most seats if the elections were free and fair, 58 percent of the respondents said the PPP, 22 percent said the PML-N and 13 percent said the PML-Q. Seventy-nine percent also said that they would believe the elections to be rigged if the PML-Q won the most seats. On whether they would support protests against the government if the PML-Q was declared the winner, 55 percent replied yes, pointing at “a potential for post-election turmoil should that event occur”. As many as 93 percent of Pakistanis believe that Benazir Bhutto’s death has weakened the federation, with 62 percent of them blaming the government for her demise, and only 13 percent holding Al Qaeda responsible. The poll also showed that voters expressed concern regarding rising Islamic fundamentalism, with 73 percent stating that religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan. However, only 33 percent of Pakistanis supported the army fighting extremists in NWFP and just nine percent felt that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States in its war on terror. When asked about the direction that the country was headed in, an all-time high of 84 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction. Nearly half of the population is pessimistic about their economic future, and economic issues are prominent in the minds of voters. Eroded: The poll showed that President Pervez Musharraf’s political position has “severely eroded, with his popularity and approval ratings falling to all-time lows”. It said that 75 percent of Pakistanis want his resignation. The number has increased eight points from the last poll. Seventy-two percent also said that the president was not doing a good job. Fifty-seven percent of respondents said that Musharraf’s performance had lowered their opinion of the army.

Courtesy Daily Times

 

[mujahideen]

FACTBOX - Who stands to win or lose in Pakistani vote

(Reuters) - The assassination of Benazir Bhutto sucked the oxygen out of campaigning in Pakistan for an election on Feb. 18 that is meant to mark a transition to civilian-led democracy.

No one has dared speak out as forcefully as Bhutto did against Islamist militancy and need for democracy in a nuclear-armed Muslim state on the front line of a war against al Qaeda.

The following are profiles of politicians with most at stake in polls for national and provincial assemblies;


PRESIDENT PERVEZ MUSHARRAF

* It's not a presidential election, but the outcome of the vote is vital for Musharraf's future. A hostile parliament could try to impeach him for the "unconstitutional" way he got himself re-elected for a second five-year term by the outgoing assemblies, and imposed six weeks of emergency rule in November to get rid of judges who could have annulled his victory.

* Musharraf, 64, came to power as a general in a bloodless coup in 1999, ousting prime minister Nawaz Sharif. He first became president in 2001. He quit as army chief in November, weakening links with the institution that has been the greatest source of his strength.

* He has survived at least three al Qaeda inspired assassination attempts after becoming a U.S. ally following the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

* The alliance with the United States, and authoritarian responses to political challenges over the past year have caused Musharraf's popularity to plummet. A survey released on Monday by the U.S.-based International Republican Institute (IRI) showed 75 percent of Pakistanis want him to quit, and put his job approval rating at a low of 15 percent.


CHAUDHRY PERVEZ ELAHI

* The Chaudhrys of Gujrat are an influential political family in Punjab. They worked with intelligence agencies to herd support for Musharraf by taking over Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League. While called the PML, it is usually refered to as PML-Q or Q League to differentiate it from Sharif's wing.

* Elahi, former chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan's richest and most populous province, is a cousin of PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. The IRI survey said only five percent of people saw Elahi as the best person to handle Pakistan's problems.

* Regarded as opportunists, the Chaudhrys are also seen as conservatives, sensitive to the religious lobby, who have failed to help Musharraf set a more liberal agenda.


ASIF ALI ZARDARI

* Bhutto's 51-year-old widower is not standing for election. But having been made joint chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) along with his son 19-year-old Bilawal, in accordance with Benazir's wishes, Zardari's calling the shots for a party that is likely to emerge with the largest number of seats.

* The moustachioed Zardari has a reputation for warmth and loyalty to friends. But he is dogged by the nickname "Mr Ten Percent". He spent 11 years in jail for graft and other charges. Never convicted, he says the charges were politically motivated.

* The government last month said it would pursue an old money laundering case against Zardari in a Swiss court.

* Though it was Sharif that hounded Bhutto out of Pakistan and jailed Zardari, Musharraf kept Zardari in prison until 2004. While regarded as political liability for Bhutto, Zardari earned respect for the fortitude he showed during his time in jail.

* Like his late wife, Zardari hails from a feudal landowning family, though his was far smaller than the Bhuttos'. Aside from Bilawal, he has two teenaged daughters.


MAKHDOOM AMIN FAHEEM

* The PPP's vice chairman could very well become the next prime minister. Many people believe Musharraf regards Faheem as an acceptable as he doesn't take hard positions.

* A large landowner in his native Sindh province, soft-spoken Faheem has been loyal to the Bhutto family throughout.

* He served in the cabinet of Benazir's father, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan's first popularly elected prime minister, who was toppled and hanged by the military in late 1970s. He also served in Benazir's two governments, and led the party during her eight years in self-exile. He refused the prime ministership offered him by Musharraf after a 2002 general election.


NAWAZ SHARIF

* Sharif, 58, is barred from standing for election. He was prime minister twice in the 1990s. His first government was fondly remembered by businessmen. The second ended in a coup with Pakistan almost bankrupt. He was sent into exile in 2000.

* The PML-N, otherwise known as the Nawaz League, can't win. But Sharif hopes to re-capture ground, particularly in central Punjab province, to keep pressure on Musharraf, or even bring him down if PPP joins hands.

* Known for a love for food and grand life-style, Sharif still possesses a common touch most other leaders lack.

* Musharraf promptly deported Sharif to Saudi Arabia when he tried returning in September, but had to let him come back in November because of pressure from Saudi monarch King Abdullah.

* A protege of an earlier military dictator, President Mohammad Zia-ul Haq, Sharif sometimes displays colours of a pro-West liberal, but he cultivated appeal to the religious constituency over the years. Critics say he mixed pragmatism in foreign policy with conservatism and illiberalism domestically.

* Sharif has yet to earn Washington's trust. President George W. Bush has said Sharif should prove his commitment to battling against al Qaeda and the Taliban.

 

[MOSABJA]

my personal opinion is that in Free and Fair Polls

PML(N) + PPP = at least 70-80% majority.

A little RIGGING

PML(N) + PPP = at least 50 % majority.

if BIG RIGGING then

PML Q + MQM + PML(F) + PPP(S) = more than 50 % Majority = Not acceptance of results by Pakistani people and MASS PROTESTS AND AND HUNG PARLIAMENT AND THEN NEW POLLS AND THEN AGAIN NEW GOV.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

What can i say about thinking of People but i can assure you that 1 year before when there was not a single word about election Pakistani People were living fine.

Shows how much work Musharaf and the group did.

Ironical people still want to be looted by the faces which raped Pakistan before.

If only our people have some self respect..........They should not go for Polls!

 

[MOSABJA]

What So much work Musharraf and his group Did???????

People dont want the same OLD FACES but let me tell you People want DEMOCRACY.

Democracy is a system that takes time to settle and when once settle it shall bring its NEW FACES .Unfortunately with MILITARY INTERVENTIONs democracy has not yet settled down.
People want Musharraf to GO and Democracy to develop and in future we would have a strong base.


WHAT ARE YOU FOR REAL.MUSHARRAF HAS LOOTED US MORE THAN ANY OTHER gov.

from 1986 to 1999 only 20 bn Rs Loans were forgiven..
from 1999 -2007 107 billion Rs loand of Influential loans are forgiven.

Musharraf era is the most CORRUPT OF THEM ALL(Amnesty international).




MOST OF IT ALL IS THAT WHILE MILITARY GOV DO SOME THINGS GOOD BUT THEY DONT BRING IN STABILITY AND CERTAINITY.

We didnt have Suicide bombings before.
People want stability .
Right now believe me Pakistani dont know where they are heading for.
Foreign media keep saying PAKISTAN WILL DISINTEGRATE SOON.
If we had democracy we would BE ASSURED OF SURVIVAL.
But Because of military intervention we ARE UNCERTAIN.

 

[mujahideen]

Everyone is constantly critising President Musharraf and his government but they really forget what he has done for the country. In the past 60 years we have only had two governments who have developed Pakistan and they are the governments of Field Marshall Ayub Khan and President Musharraf's government. For those who critisize the army for getting involved, it is interesting to note that the army has always come to power on a wave of popular support. It is the politicians who have called for the army to intervine and even today they want General Kiyani to get involed in the political mess. It is interesting to note that the modern "Establishment" was not created by the army but by a democratically elected government, it was Zulifikar Ali Bhutto who created a political wing of the ISI, it was Bhutto who wanted to have complete control of the army so that it may be used for political purposes. First of all we must stop calling on the army to get involved in politics, they have a duty to protect our borders, and they have made us proud and I am sure they will continue to make us proud. Second and most important is that our politicians must grow up. First thing someone does when they come into power is loot as much as they can as fast as possible, and send all that money and their family outside the country. The reason for this is they dont know if they will be in power the next day because we have no political stability. Lets say President Musharraf is to step down tomorrow, who is going to gaurantee his safety, who is going to say he wont be jailed, who is to say he wont be assassinated, all these factors are very important in making our politicians so imature. The bottom line is President Musharraf has done many good things, but we must remember he is human and has made some very big mistakes, but at the same time we must also give him credit for his achievements. We have a culture where if someone is in opposition then they will never say anything good and give credit to the positives of the sitting government. Today when anti-Pakistan propaganda is being spread about Pakistan in the international media, I haven't seen one opposition leader trying to defend Pakistan and say that this is not true. We must learn to work together. In about less then a week Pakistan will go to the polls, I think it will be a hung Parliament, but one thing is for sure, this new government will have a lot of support, but within a year or so its popularity will plummit, because in Pakistan if we look at the history governments aren't popular with the people for long. The next government I say let it be a government of national unity, but the people must give it time, we will vote for it and for the next five years we must live with it, and punish it at the polls after five years. But one thing is for sure, if our politicians commit the same mistakes as they did in the 1990s the army will again be forced to take power and will once again have popular support when it overthrows a democratically elected government.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

this is really stupid man, can't our people see that he was used and dumped. why is everyone blaming him? people don't have the right to call him dictator, he hasn't killed anyone. maybe he should've to shut these people up, they always cause fitna. i don't think anyone has done a better job than mush.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

as ahmed quraishi puts it, the last time we had free and fair elections, it broke the country apart. democracy, my ***, this term first appeared during WWII. the youth of pak are so brainwashed.

 

[mujahideen]

Fraud fears overshadow Pakistan polls

By Chris Morris
BBC News, Islamabad

Democracy, Benazir Bhutto said, is the best form of revenge.

She is eulogised in election songs produced by her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and her face stares out from the party's election posters dotted around the city.

But on the day she was assassinated in December, Ms Bhutto was about to present evidence which cast grave doubt on whether Pakistan's parliamentary elections would be free and fair.

More than six weeks later, with the delayed elections nearly upon us, her opinions still matter.

The report she had with her on the day she died talks of election violence, intimidation and corrupt officials. According to the PPP, nothing has changed.

Senator Enver Beg says more than 100 parliamentary candidates who support President Pervez Musharraf are close relatives of the people who are running the elections, district by district.

"They will use government machinery, government finances and government funds. They will use government transport," he said.

"They have the police under their control. District officials have been transferred in violation of the law. I call this dishonest."

'Unprecedented open-ness'

The PPP has filed more than 1,200 complaints with the election commission, but has received virtually no response.

"I'm sorry to say," said Senator Beg, "that the election commission is deaf, dumb and blind. They just take all these complaints and throw them in the dustbin."

And that probably reflects the view of the majority of Pakistan's opposition parties and their supporters - partly because some of them have experience of rigging elections themselves.

There is a crisis of confidence in official institutions here.

The international pressure group Human Rights Watch says the election commission simply isn't politically impartial.

But the commission's secretary, Kanwar Dilshad, disputes that finding, and scoffs at opposition claims of organised fraud.

"There has been no pre-poll rigging," he declared.

"All these complaints are contrary to the facts. District officials have found there is no case to answer."

Mr Dilshad says the commission is committed to maintaining neutrality and impartiality.

"For example, there are about 64,000 polling stations which have been established. That list has already been posted on the website. That is the first time the process has been so open."

Scepticism

At an election rally in a small park on the outskirts of Islamabad, supporters of the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif have gathered to hear from their local candidate. Flags carrying his party's tiger symbol flutter in the breeze.

There is plenty of enthusiasm among the party faithful, but in a small market at one corner of the park scepticism comes quickly to the fore.

"How can you call them free and fair when you haven't got a free judiciary and a free election commission?" asked one man.

"Definitely there will be rigging. And then people will come out on the street and say this is not right," says another.

"I haven't voted and I don't intend to this time. They never come and work for us."


At the headquarters of the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), a coalition of NGO groups, they are preparing forms to be filled in by some 20,000 volunteers who will be monitoring the election around the country.

It will be an important job, especially as many international election observers won't be present on election day. Some have pulled out, citing security concern, others - like the Commonwealth - haven't been allowed in.

The Secretary General of FAFEN, Sarwar Bari, believes his organisation will get a pretty accurate picture of what is happening around the country. And he doesn't much like what he's seen so far.

"This is perhaps the most controversial election in Pakistan's history.

"Two major parties are participating under protest, and the judiciary has been bulldozed," he says.

"I hope I'm wrong, but I foresee chaos after the polling."

A number of smaller parties are boycotting the election altogether, convinced that the process cannot be fair.

Benazir Bhutto, for all her reservations, had embarked upon a different path.

But in the end, what matters is not whether the election is rigged or not.

What matter is whether Pakistan's people will accept the result which emerges next week.

And in that respect, this is a country holding its breath and hoping for the best.

 

[mujahideen]

PAKISTAN DECIDES: As loyal as they come...: ‘Steadfast’ politicians

By Mansab Dogar

LAHORE: Out of the hundreds of politicians contesting Punjab’s 148 National Assembly seats in the 2008 parliamentary elections, only 45 claim to have maintained steadfastness in their political affiliations since 1988.
A Daily Times review of the political allegiances maintained by Punjab's politicians over recent political history revealed that since 1998 — the year in which the first party-based elections were held after prolonged martial law — very few politicians have remained true to their political affiliations.
Even this list of 45 politicians contains the names of numerous individuals who, in cognisance of the accrued infamy earned by politicians overtly labelled turncoats or 'lotas' in the vernacular, hold on to the claim of maintaining political loyalty by not shedding their mother-party's tag. This lot has, however, split from their mainstream party and forged rival splinter factions (hence adding to the never ending list of familiar party names with hyphenated appendages). For example, Manzoor Ahmad Watoo has not disassociated himself from his mother-party's familiar tag, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), but has created his own faction by appending 'Jinnah' to it - creating the PML-Jinnah he leads. This is the same course followed by the Chatha league, the Junejo faction and others.
However, for the purpose of this review, these politicians have been provisionally considered 'loyalists'.
Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, who is contesting the parliamentary elections this year from NA-50, Rawalpindi, on a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz ticket (PML-N) is amongst these rare 'loyalists'. His father Shahid Abbasi successfully contested an NA seat from the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad platform - an alliance of right wing parties knit together by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to counter the Pakistan People's Party in 1988, which later morphed into various PML factions (including Quaid, Chattha, etc).
The son, Shahid Khaqan, continued in his father's tradition and was elected from the same platform in 1990. In 1993 he joined the PML-N when another splinter faction, the PML-Junejo was formed. He was elected to the National Assembly from this platform in 1993 and again in 1997, when PML-N won a two-thirds majority in the assembly. In 2002 though, maintaining his PML-N loyalty, Shahid Khaqan lost the seat he is now eager to reclaim.
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, an MNA-hopeful contesting NA-52 and -53, Rawalpindi, has also maintained his loyalty to the PML-N since 1993. He was elected to the National Assembly in the 1985 party-less elections, then retained his seat twice from the IJI platform. In 1993, he joined the PML-N and successfully defended his seat in the 1993, 1997 and 2002 elections.
Muhammad Basharat Raja, who is contesting the 2008 elections from NA-54, Rawalpindi, on a Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) ticket, contested the 1988 elections without success from the IJI platform. Since then he has successfully retained a provincial assembly seat from the PML-N platform. After Nawaz Sharif was exiled and the PML-Q formed, while not abandoning the mother-tag, Basharat did jump on to the -Q bandwagon.
Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, one of the most entrenched veteran politicians, who will be contesting NA-55 and -56, Rawalpindi, on a PML-Q ticket in the 2008 elections, has technically not changed parties since 1985. He was elected to the NA in the party-less elections, then retained his seat twice from the IJI platform in 1988 and 1990. He retained the seat again in 1993 and 1997 from the PML-N platform. Like Basharat, though, while retaining the mother-party's tag, he too abandoned the -N appendage for the newly formed -Q after Nawaz's ouster in 2000, and once again successfully defended his NA seat from the PML-Q platform in the 2002 elections held under General Pervez Musharraf's military-led regime.
Chaudhry Anwar Ali Cheema, contesting NA-67, Sargodha, on a PML-Q ticket, is an ostensibly steadfast Muslim Leaguer, who won twice on an IJI ticket in 1988 and 1990. In 1993 and 1997 he retained his NA seat from the PML-N platform and again in 2002 on a PML-Q ticket.
Rai Salahud Din, contesting from the PML-N platform in NA-76, Faislabad, is another apparently loyal Muslim Leaguer. In 1988 and 1990, he contested and lost from the IJI platform, did not contest in 1993, but hit gold with the PML-N ticket, being elected to an NA seat in 1997 and 2002.
Mehar Abdul Rasheed has remained true to the PPP, the platform from which he will contest NA 84, Faisalabad. He was elected to an NA seat from this platform in 1998. He retained his loyalty but remained in the political wilderness in the 1990, 1993 and 1997 elections and did not contest in 2002.
Muhammad Hamza, contesting this time around on a PML-N ticket in NA-92, Toba Tek Singh, was elected to an NA seat on the IJI platform in 1988 and 1990. He joined the PML-N in the 1993 elections but lost his seat. He returned to the NA in 1997 from the same platform, but lost again in 2002.
Khalid Ahmad Khan Kharal, contesting NA-94, Toba Tek Singh, on a PPP ticket. Although considered a veteran of the party he has remained loyal to he has contested all the elections held since 1988 on the PPP ticket, but has won only once, in 1993.
Chaudhry Asadur Rehman, also contesting from the same Toba Tek Singh constituency on a PML-N ticket, is an old Muslim Leaguer who has contested all elections since 1988. He won in 1988, 1990 and 1997 but lost in 1993 and 2002.
Khuram DastAgir Khan, a PML-N candidate in NA-96 Gujranwala, is the son of veteran Muslim Leaguer Ghulam Dastagir Khan. Khuram lost from the IJI platform in 1988 but won in 1990. The elder Dastgir won in the 1993 and 1997 elections from the PML-N platform, but his son lost in 2002 from the same platform.
Shahid Akram Bhinder, contesting NA-97 on a PML-Q ticket, Gujranwala, hails from an old Muslim League family, won an NA seat in 2002. His father-in-law Anwar Bhinder contested the 1998 elections unsuccessfully from the IJI platform.
Bilal Ijaz, a PML-Q hopeful in NA-100, Gujranwala, was elected from the platform in 2002. His father Ijaz Ahmad won from the IJI platform in 1988 but lost in 1990. In 1993 he decided to sail with the fortunes of the PML-N and returned to the assembly, but lost his seat in 1997.
Hamid Nasir Chattha, contesting NA-101 Gujranwala on a PML-Q ticket, lost in 1988 on an IJI ticket, but won in 1990 from the same platform. Instead of joining the PML-N for the 1993 elections, he joined the PML-J and won. In 1997 he did not have the same luck, losing his seat while contesting from the platform of PML-Chattha- a faction he created and led after developing differences with colleagues in his mother-party. He contested the 2002 elections from the same platform. In 2008, however, he is contesting on a PML-Q ticket because he merged his PML faction with the Q-league in the wake of the 2002 elections.
Nawabzada Ghazanfar Gul, a PPP candidate in NA-104 Gujranwala, is an old party faithful. He won an NA seat for the party in 1993, but lost in 1990, 1997 and 2002.
Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who managed to assemble many of the country's different political factions on the PML-Q platform to contest the 2002 elections, is the party's president and will be contesting from his home constituency, NA-105 Gujrat. He won an NA seat in the 1988 and 1990 elections on an IJI ticket. In 1993, he became an effective PML-N member even though he lost the election that year. He won the party and himself an NA seat in 1997. After General Musharraf exiled Nawaz Sharif in 2000, Shujaat was instrumental in assisting the general in forming the new Muslim League.
Nazar Muhammad Gondal has been a staunch, if marginally successful, PPP loyalist. He will be contesting NA-109, Mandi Bahauddin, from the same platform that saw him victorious in 1990 and 1993, but a loser in 1988, 1990 and 1997. He did not contest the 2002 elections.
Chaudhry Amir Hussain, former National Assembly speaker a PML-Q candidate in NA-111, Sialkot, is a veteran Muslim Leaguer who has contested all the elections since 1988, losing out only once, in 1993.
Jahangir Badr PPP senior leader who will vie for an NA seat in NA-120, Lahore, contested the 1988, 1990 and 2002 elections for his party, but won only the first time around.
Sheikh Rohail Asghar, a PML-N contender in NA 124, Lahore, contested unsuccessfully in 1988 from the IJI platform. Although he has not contested any election since, he has not joined any other party either.
Malik Mushtaq Ahmad, a PPP candidate in NA-133, Sheikhupura, successfully contested the 1988 elections from the same platform, but lost in 1990. He did not contest the 1993, 1997 and 2002 elections.
Malik Birjees Tahir, contesting NA-35, Sheikhupura from a PML-N ticket, contested the 1988 elections as an independent candidate. He joined the Muslim League and successfully contested the 1990 elections from the IJI platform. He has won all subsequent elections from the PML-N platform.
Rai Mansab Ali Khan, a PML-Q candidate in NA-137, Sheikhupura, won in the 2002 elections on a PML-Q ticket. In 1988, he lost from the IJI platform, but won from it in 1990. He lost again in 1993 on a PML-N ticket, but was successful from it in 1997.
Rao Mazhar Hayat Khan, a PML-N candidate in NA 138, Kasur, lost in 2002 and 1997 from the same platform. His father, Rao Khizar Hayat Khan, won in 1988 and 1990 on the IJI platform, and again in 1993 on a PML-N ticket.
Tariq Hakim Ali, a PPP contender in the same constituency, contested for the first time, unsuccessfully, in 1993. His father, Hakim Ali, contested and lost as an independent candidate in 1988. He later joined the PPP, but lost from this platform too in the 1990 elections.
Sardar Talib Hassan Nakai, a PML-Q candidate in NA-142, Kasur, won an NA seat in 1988 on the IJI platform. Although he lost in 1990, he won again in 1993 on a PML-N ticket. The same pattern recurred when he contested on a PML-Q ticket, with him losing in 1997 and winning in 2002.
Mian Yawar Zaman, a PML-N aspirant in NA-144 Okara, contested on a party ticket in 1988 and 1990, losing the first and winning the second. After failing in 1993 on a PML-N ticket, he regained an NA seat in 1997 and chose not to contest in 2002.
Mian Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, former Punjab chief minister, is contesting NA-146 and -147, Okara, from his own PML-Jinnah platform. He was elected to an NA seat in 1988 on an IJI ticket. He did not contest the 1990 elections. In 1993, he contested unsuccessfully from the PML-Junejo platform. In 1997 he again chose not to contest the elections. His daughter, Rubina Shaheen Wattoo, won an NA seat in 2002 from the PML-Jinnah platform. Although he had merged his party with the PML-Q, as he was not accorded party tickets for the constituencies of his choosing, he entered the arena along with his daughter from his own platform.
Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, PML-N Senior Vice President, will be contesting NAs 55, 148, 149 and 123, Rawalpindi. He contested successfully from the IJI platform in 1988 but lost in 1990. In 1993 he joined the PML-N but lost again. He returned to the NA in 1997 and 2002.
Sheikh Tahir Rasheed, a PML-Q aspirant in NA 149, Multan, contested successfully on a PML-N ticket in 1993 and 1997. In 2000 he joined the PML-Q after Nawaz was exiled. His father, Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad, contested unsuccessfully from the IJI platform in 1988.
Mirza Naseer Ahmad Baig, a PPP candidate in NA-154 Lodhran, contested successfully in 1988 and 1993 but lost in 1990, 1997 and 2002 from the platform.
Muhammad Ajmal Kanju, a PML-Q contender in NA-155, Lodhran, will enter the political arena for the first time in 2008. His father Sidiqque Ahmad Khan Kanju won all the elections held since 1988, except in 1993. His uncle, Akhtar Khan Kanju won in 2002 on a PML-Q ticket, but is contesting on a PML-N ticket against his nephew this time around.
Ghulam Fareed Kathia, contesting NA-161, Sahiwal, has remained a PPP stalwart. He lost the 1988 elections but succeeded in 1990 and 1993. In all subsequent elections, however, he has failed to make his way back to the National Assembly.
Rana Naeem Mehmood, a PPP candidate in NA-166, Pakpattan, contested from this platform in 1988. He has not contested any election since, but has returned to active politics once again in 2008.
Sardar Saifuddin Khosa, a PML-N candidate in NA-173, DG Khan, is the son of former governor of Punjab Sardar Zulfiqar Ahmad Khosa, a five-time member of the provincial assembly.
Sahibzada Faizul Hassan, a PML-N candidate in NA-181, Layyah, won from the IJI platform in 1988 and 1990. He joined the PML-N for the 1993 elections but lost the contest. He managed to return to the NA on a PML-N ticket in 1997 but failed again in 2002.
Sahibzada Farooq Anwar Abbasi, a PML-Q candidate in NA-185, Bahawalpur, is an old Muslim Leaguer who was elected to an NA seat on the IJI platform in 1990. Later, he joined the PML-N faction of the IJI and won in 1993 and 1997. He did not contest the 2002 elections.
Syed Tasneem Nawaz Gardezi, an independent candidate in NA-186 Bahawalpur, is an old Muslim Leaguer who has preferred to go independent instead of changing his party loyalties. He had successfully contested the 1988 and 1990 elections from the IJI platform, and lost in 1993, contesting on a PML-N ticket. He did not contest in 1997, and made his way back to the NA in 2002 on a PML-Q ticket.
Syed Mumtaz Alam Gilani, a PPP candidate in NA-189, Bahawalnagar, won an NA seat for his party in the 1988 elections, although he had failed to do so in 1990. He did not contest the 1993, 1997 and 2002 elections.
Abdul Sattar Lalika's widow Shahida Sattar Lalika is contesting the same constituency from the PML-Q platform. Her late husband was elected to the NA twice from the IJI platform, in 1988 and 1990. He had lost on a PML-N ticket in 1993 but only to win again in 1997. He had retained his seat in the 2002 elections on a PML-Q ticket.
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the PML-Q prime ministerial candidate, is contesting NA-187, Rahim Yar Khan, NA-58, Attock, and NA-61, Chakwal. The politician who has served as Punjab Assembly speaker and chief minister of Punjab is contesting a National Assembly seat for the first time.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

 

[mujahideen]

Survey shows 56% people view Musharraf worked for the infrastructure development

ISLAMABAD, Feb 13 (APP) -- A survey shows 56% people viewed Musharraf worked for the infrastructure development in the country, while 95% credit him for initiating media growth, agreeing that media should be responsible.The survey, released on Wednesday, was conducted by ‘Views in Pakistan’, an organization which asserts expertise in socio-economic market research.

When asked, which government do they feel had done most for development of infrastructure related projects like roads, dams, flyovers, etc. 56% named Musharraf while 19% said Nawaz Sharif contributed to development of the country.

Regarding efforts to develop Balochistan and the Northern Areas, 42% agreed that Musharraf had done more than the previous governments.

According to the survey, 95% people attributed media growth to Musharraf era. The people viewed that eight years back there was only PTV while today there are more than 50 TV channels and more than 106 FM radio stations operating in the country.

People also think that media owed responsibility in terms of ethics and observing of codes for good of the society. Almost 67% surveyed people believed that the dead bodies should not be shown on the news channels.

To a query regarding technological standing of the country, 84% of the public opined that Pakistan is more modern and technologically equipped than it was eight years back.

Those who participated in the survey were taken from cross section of the population with 59% males and 41% females.

For reference, details about the surveyors can be found on the Internet web link:

Views in Pakistan

At their website, the surveyors say, “Our primary focus is to continually research, analyze and monitor the socio-economic pulse of the nation. We specialize in designing, developing, and executing, market research programs rapidly. Our phone based surveys, are executed within hours of design, and the data is presented in dynamic graphical reports. All clients get web access to our Views in Pakistan System, enabling them to design studies, and see data in “real time.

“As another competitive advantage we record each phone interview and clients get on-line access to every comment. Our expertise is socio-economic surveys all across Pakistan,” the surveyors say.

 

[mujahideen]

64pc say Musharraf resignation to improve stability

Our monitoring desk

A LARGE majority of Pakistanis (64 per cent) say that stability and security in Pakistan would get better ‘if President Musharraf resigned now’, according to a new BBC World Service poll. Only one in four (25 per cent) say that security would get worse if he were to resign.
Just 29 per cent regard Pervez Musharraf’s election as President held last November as valid, while 49 per cent say it is invalid (22% per cent did not provide an answer).
In one of the most striking findings of the poll, almost two out of three Pakistanis (63%) say that the National Assembly should reinstate Iftikhar Chaudhry as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court following the general election. Only 19 percent say the Assembly should not seek Chaudhry’s reinstatement.
The poll of a nationally representative sample of 1,476 Pakistanis was conducted by Gallup Pakistan using in-home interviews from 27 to 28 January 2008.
Asked about the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, only a very small minority-16 percent-believe the Pakistani government’s contention that the Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and his Al-Qaeda linked network are responsible. The largest number-39 percent-believe that “the Pakistani security agencies or people linked to them” are responsible. Twenty-four percent say that some other party is responsible and 21 percent say they do not know. (The poll was taken before the release of the Scotland Yard report largely affirming the Pakistan government’s account of how Bhutto died.)
Looking ahead, Pakistanis are divided about whether the general elections scheduled for 18 February will be “free and fair.” Forty-four percent say they are very (11%) or somewhat (33%) confident that they will be free and fair. Forty-six percent say they are not very confident (27%) or not at all confident (19%).
Overall, Pakistanis do show some cautious optimism that the situation in Pakistan will improve over the next six months. Fifty-one percent say they are very (16%) or somewhat (35%) optimistic that conditions will improve. In contrast, 39 percent say they are very (19%) or somewhat (20%) pessimistic.
GlobeScan President Doug Miller, who worked with the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland to develop and analyse the poll, says, “While many Western governments have supported President Musharraf in the belief that he offers the only hope of a stable Pakistan, average citizens in the country disagree with this assessment in large numbers.”
Detailed results of the poll are available on the special Election 2008 microsite on the BBC Urdu website, bbcurdu.com.
Regional Variations
There were a number of variations among provinces. The belief that Musharraf’s resignation would help stabilise the country was held by majorities in all provinces, though in Sindh, the majority was not as strong (56% believe the country would stabilize).
The belief that Pakistani security agencies or those close to them are responsible for Benazir Bhutto’s death was strongest in the Northwest Frontier Province (48%) and in Sindh (46%), and weakest in Baluchistan (30%).
Sindh was the least optimistic (38%) that conditions in the country would improve in the next six months and Balochistan was the most optimistic (76%). Punjab and NWFP (53% each optimistic) were similar to the country overall. Gallup Pakistan conducted 1,476 face-to-face, in-home interviews on January 27 and 28, 2008 across four provinces, including urban and rural locations in each province. The sample was weighted based on geography, the urban/rural ratio, and key demographics to reflect the distribution of the national population.

The Nation

 

[mujahideen]

The ‘real’ question facing political parties

The population of Pakistan has increased five times since it came into existence. Now when it has crossed the figure of 150 million, the majority lack basic amenities of life. The supply of pure drinking water is still a dream while no city, big or small, has a proper drainage system. Industry is non-existent and agriculture has reached saturation point. After the setting in of the global age, the state has been left with little resources to scale up the ladder of the Human Development Index (HDI). Where to begin? It is the real question for the political parties making loud noises for strengthening of civilian rule in the country.


The state is a legal entity. It owes its existence to the recognition by the international community of its role to ensure the welfare of its citizens. The best utilisation of resources makes its people prosper in peace and tranquillity. As per its logic of existence, its policy-makers cannot dare committing blunders and institutions do not cross their limits. The oft-talked of national interest stands supreme, for it is good for the people from top to bottom.


In Pakistan’s case, the political parties have behaved opportunistically, judges have drastically failed to defend the Constitution, academics have been disinterested in research and the clergy have been out on the streets to push the state in their desired direction. What should the state do when society lacks a consensus on the conditions for peace and stability? None should wonder why it has been under martial law for the most part of its history.


Pakistan was not fortunate enough to have a simple society after it came into being. The British might have added to it the areas traditionally claimed by neighbours Iran and Afghanistan. Had the entire Indus Basin been made its part, Pakistan would have managed its economy effectively. Unfortunately, Punjab was partitioned. Kashmir, wherefrom the Indus with its tributaries flows down, went into the Indian lap for reasons well known to the world.


Pakistan was too weak to walk for a few years after its birth. The nascent state needed ample time to grow in strength. The state was put on the war path instead. It fought against its neighbour far larger in size; it came into confrontation with its own people who demanded education, health and jobs. Failing to do all on its own, the state joined the anti-socialist camp.


India made Pakistan sign the Indus Basin Treaty. Neither morality nor international law supported it to get complete rights on the three rivers flowing down from its territories. Had the leadership of the country not preferred militant means to diplomacy for settling bilateral disputes with the eastern neighbour, the nation would have got a different history. Its fate would not have hung in the balance as the case has been for the last 60 years. Democracy would have kept its borders intact and economy stable.


Pakistan had a chance to take the right path after the creation of Bangladesh, but the opportunity was missed this time too. The ground realities were ignored once again. War has not been fought with India since then but defence expenditure has not witnessed a downslide. Pakistan acted as a base camp to wage the jihad against the Soviet forces occupying Afghanistan. The nation has literally eaten grass in a bid to become nuclear. It has survived without any real development work during the whole 1990s.


General Musharraf came into power because the political parties had asked the army to save them from the excesses of the Nawaz regime. The apex court of the country validated his actions and his uniformed presidency has the backing of parliament. He has shown interest in undertaking institutional reforms. He has held elections at all levels on time. He is fighting against militancy. He has vowed to stand by the ‘progressive elements’ to defeat the ‘retrogressive forces’ in the next general elections. He is ready even to undertake jobs as difficult as enforcing the writ of the state in the tribal belt and constructing ‘big dams’.


There is no guarantee that Musharraf will be able to do everything he is promising right now. He may go half the way. It is the truth today. The same will hold even if he continues with his present role in the years beyond 2007. He seems determined to achieve the objectives he has set for himself but he has his limits. Will political parties help him to retire? Yes, they should. But they will have to adopt peaceful means to this end. Cooperation and not conflict will help.


Fortunately, parliament is there to correct institutional anomalies. The political parties should understand that the religious institution has to be de-politicised and put to the service of society. The Constitution of the country needs drastic amendments so that the state could wear a progressive outlook. Militancy has to be discouraged and the jihadis debriefed. The same platform should be used to redefine the role of the armed forces in the global age. Pakistan will be lucky if it makes a new beginning in 2008.


As far as fighting the problems resulting from over-population is concerned, enough funds need to be spared for health and education. To prevent nature from taking its revenge, revolutionary steps are needed to increase forest cover and livestock population. To strike a balance between humans and nature, fresh water must be preserved as much as possible. Its evaporation and runoff should be slowed down. Remember, water can neither be created nor destroyed but it can be preserved — in dams, aquifers and the atmosphere.

Pakistan News Service - PakTribune

 

[mujahideen]

Showdown looms for Musharraf after Pakistan votes

By Simon Cameron-Moore

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistanis vote in an election on Monday that could bring about the downfall of President Pervez Musharraf if it returns a hostile parliament with a prime minister who wants to be his own man.

While it's not a presidential election there's no doubting what the main issue is.

"It is President Pervez Musharraf," said Ijaz Shafi Gilani, chairman of Gallup Pakistan, whose survey released on Thursday showed almost two-thirds of Pakistanis have had enough of the 64-year-old ex-commando leading their nuclear-armed country.

U.S. ally Musharraf is used to prime ministers doing his bidding since he came to power as a general in coup in 1999, and he behaves like Pakistan's chief executive.

He got himself re-elected while still army chief by a pliant parliament before it was dissolved, and then in November invoked emergency powers for six weeks to remove judges who might have ruled it unconstitutional.

The next prime minister has to choose whether to play second fiddle to him and the parliament cannot duck the issue of the constitutionality of Musharraf's presidency, Gilani said.

An expected low turnout, and possible rigging could help Musharraf ride out the storm. But if any rigging is overdone it would risk sparking agitation that could precipitate his end.

If the vote isn't rejected, everything hinges on what the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto opts to do if, as expected, it emerges as the largest party in 342-seat National Assembly and gets a chance to lead the next coalition.

Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), now led by her widower Asif Ali Zardari must choose between negotiating a working arrangement with Musharraf, or confrontation, which is what most PPP voters want to see, according to Gilani.

Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times and a top political analyst, believed PPP won't make Musharraf's ouster its priority.

"I don't think they would risk getting into another fight so soon after coming into power unless, of course, Musharraf makes life very difficult for them," Sethi said. "If they're pushed to the wall they will, but as a first option, I don't think so."

Musharraf's survival will be unpopular with Pakistanis fed up with rising food prices and the human cost of a war against Islamist militants that many think is America's not Pakistan's.

People are angry over Musharraf's authoritarian responses to challenges over the past year, and they distrust the official account of Bhutto's murder, blaming militants for her assassination on Dec. 27.

Nawaz Sharif, the premier Musharraf overthrew and leader of the other main opposition party, wants Musharraf brought down.

Gilani believes Zardari's position within PPP will come under pressure if he ignores voters' wishes by working with Musharraf.

"This kind of a disconnect between the voters and the people elected will put tremendous stress on PPP," the pollster said.


DOUBLE JEOPARDY

Beyond Musharraf, the personality, the election basically comes down to how much people want the army out of politics, after yo-yoing between military and civilian rule since Pakistan's formation following the partition of India in 1947.

"It's come to a crisis point because for 30 years of Pakistan's 60 years it has been ruled by the military, and ruled in an arbitrary way, one that is disrespectful of the law," said Pervez Hoodhbhoy, a nuclear physicist and commentator with anti-establishment views.

"We have seen that the army has entrenched itself at the cost of the people of Pakistan."

The 1970 poll was the first and only one regarded as fair in a country where intelligence agencies fiddle elections and generals have justified successive coups.

The talk is now of a transition to civilian-led democracy, but Hoodhbhoy believes that even if Musharraf quit, it would take 10 years or more for the military to stop looking over elected politicians' shoulders and let them govern without interference.

Musharraf's idea of transition revolves around himself, his handpicked army chief General Ashfaq Kayani, and whoever is the next prime minister acting as a troika to run Pakistan's affairs.

People have been encouraged to think that Kayani, who took command in November, wants the army out of politics.

He has ordered senior officers to give up civilian posts, and barred them from meeting politicians.

Musharraf, who weakened his ties with the institution that has been his greatest source of strength when he quit the army, is now at his most vulnerable.

Last month he hinted he would quit if there was any move by the new parliament to impeach him or cancel the indemnity he granted himself for breaching the constitution.

"I would give 50-50 to the possibility that he will step down," said Gilani. Otherwise, he foresaw Pakistan's crisis deepening.

© Reuters 2008 All rights reserved