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Central Chronicle - Madhya Pradesh's News Portal
Eagle's Eye: Iran's nuclear defiance rattles Arabs
MK Dhar, NPA
Editorial Posted On Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The fuelling of its first nuclear reactor by Iran with Russian help, which could facilitate production of enriched uranium, has shaken neighbouring Arab states who are losing faith in America's willingness to prevent nuclearisation of the region. For most of them Tehran crashing upon the world stage with a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future presents a doomsday scenario. Though Iran vehemently denies harbouring nuclear weapon ambitions and insists its uranium enrichment programme is meant for medical purposes, there are few who take the clerical regime at its word. Mocking the West, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared that the Bushehr reactor was a symbol of Iranian resistance and determination and, as a further show of defiance, launched the first domestically-built drone bomber capable of carrying cruise missiles up to a range of 1,000 km calling it an "ambassador of death" to keep the enemy paralysed in its bases.
Iran's show of defiance of UN sanctions is bolstered by the support it receives from Russia and China. The Bushehr reactor is a joint venture of Iran and Russia, will be fully fuelled and operated by Russian engineers for at least two years and Moscow will take back the spent fuel to prevent its misuse, meaning further enrichment to bomb-grade material. To help Iran beat the sanctions, Russia and China have supplied it refined petroleum products, weapons and other goods and entered into lucrative contracts in the energy and other fields. They thus effectively challenged America's power and influence in West Asia and provided a shield of sorts against moves to knock out Tehran's uranium enrichment facilities. Even though US Arab allies feel greatly concerned, its inaction to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state seems to have demoralised them.
A Shiate nuclear bomb would be an unacceptable proposition for its Sunni neighbours because their security would be endangered. Iran's relentless pursuit of uranium enrichment -- for the present upto 20 percent purity -- and its refusal to take IAEA inspectors on board as regards all such facilities, has fuelled fears that its programme masks a weapon drive. While collaborating in the Bushehr atomic power plant, Moscow has pointed out that all its operations will be conducted under IAEA supervision and hence diversion of spent fuel for military purposes was not possible. The US State Department spokesman has poured cold water on the hopes of Iran's shaky neighbours by recognising that Bushehr was designed to produce civilian nuclear power. Apparently, with Congressional elections due in November, President Obama is in no mood to launch another Middle East adventure and thinks of a negotiated solution of the enrichment problem. The hardliners, who are not prepared to trust Iran, argue that Bushehr is a sideshow in the nuclear standoff and should not detract attention form the real issue of enrichment.
The anti-Iran mood in a large section of the US establishment, together with the intense exertions of the non-proliferation lobby within the US bureaucracy has hardened attitudes. Iran acquiring nuclear weapons through the clandestine route of power reactors has increased the threat perception of the Arab states in general and the Gulf in particular. These states fear that a Shiate Iran armed with nuclear weapons will be better equipped to destabilise the region. Some of these states have sizeable Shiite populations which they fear could become breeding grounds for their internal destabilisation. The fear stalking the US and the West generally is that after acquiring nuclear weapons, Iran would emerge as the major power in the region with the strength of its armed forces and its oil reserves, making it impossible to contain it. It could also increase its hostility to Israel, whose right to exist is not recognised by Tehran even now.
With such a strong rival to Israel emerging and the Gulf states finding themselves militarily vulnerable and open to destabilisation, core western interests in the region could be compromised and the balance of power would decisively shift against the west. With a nuclear deterrent in possession, at whatever point of time that happens, Iran would be in a position to impede vital western interests in a number of ways.
The pressure on the US and the West to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is now likely to grow stronger, with Tehran having taken the first major step towards acquiring nuclear fuel. Iran could cheat by stopping the nuclear reactor midway to extract plutonium, which also is used for making atomic weapons, despite the IAEA inspectors and Russian assurances.
Most of the Gulf states being oil-exporters, Iran's capability to stop the flow of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz presents a nightmarish scenario for them. In their view, a nuclear Iran would be well positioned to cause instability in some of its neighbouring oil-rich states. Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest oil reserves, felt greatly concerned by the revelation of Pakistan's clandestine help to Iran with the supply of centrifuges for uranium enrichment and other equipment and know how related to nuclear weaponisation. Riyadh has always regarded Tehran as a potential threat to its security and has fully backed US efforts to prevent Tehran from enriching uranium and acquiring the raw material for a nuclear bomb, the design of which also formed part of the notorious A. Q. Khan network transfers.
Iran insists that it needs 20 per cent enriched uranium for medical purposes though metals other than uranium are most frequently used in radiation treatment machines. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy estabilishment Ali Akbar Salehi has revealed that his country has already accumulated 17 kg of uranium enriched to 20 per cent, without revealing the source. He also claimed that Iran had the capacity to enrich uranium "to any percentage", and this was a legal right for the country. His statement removes all doubts about Iran's capability as highly enriched uranium refined to a level above 90 per cent can be used for making atomic weapons. Such enrichment is possible with the help of the latest centrifuges which it has installed without let or hindrance in defiance of the sanctions and through clandestine routes.
The neighbouring Arab States argue that Iran finds it easier to pursue its weapons goal under sanctions because it is answerable to none for doing so. All its activities in that direction are not open to inspection. North Korea became a nuclear weapon state in this manner and continues its weapon programme unhindered, obviously under China's protection. The mediatory efforts by turkey and Brazil to bring Iran on board have not succeeded. Although they agreed to take away low-enriched uranium from Iran and supply it stuff of 20 per cent purity, not a gramme of uranium has so far been transferred.
Apart from direct help from Russia and China, Iran is beating sanctions in a variety of ways. These include repeatedly renaming ships to evade port authorities' scrutiny and by bribing middlemen to route illicit shipments in round about ways to disguise their destination. Iran has also set up its own shell companies from the Caribbean to the Isle of Man. The UAE authorities recently closed some 40 Iranian companies suspected of channeling embargoes goods to Iran from across the world, but hundreds are known to be still in business.
Russia is going ahead with cooperation in the energy sector and with supplies of S-300 air defence missiles, in addition to massive hardware it has already given through commercial deals. Washington's frustration also stems from the fact that Russia and China have effectively neutralised the effect of UN sanctions by supplying Iran with its needs and pursuing economic, defence and commercial interests with it. Russia and Iran together hold 20 per cent of the global oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas. Russia's Gazprom has offered technical support and indicated willingness to finance a planned gas pipeline form Iran to Pakistan and India.
Although New Delhi has followed the UN sanctions it believes in a negotiated settlement of Iran's uranium enrichment issue. But, it has reservations about the unilateral US and EU sanctions which would hit its economic interests also. Indian oil imports from Iran are to the tune of 18 million tonnes annually and investment in the energy sector is about $ 100 million, which is slated to grow.
Future US strategy in the face of Iran's persistent defiance is still nuclear, but it seems unlikely that Washington and Tol Aviv will exercise the military option to knock out Iran's enrichment facilities. The Arab states are getting worried and are disinclined to accept what seems like fiat accompli.
Eagle's Eye: Iran's nuclear defiance rattles Arabs
MK Dhar, NPA
Editorial Posted On Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The fuelling of its first nuclear reactor by Iran with Russian help, which could facilitate production of enriched uranium, has shaken neighbouring Arab states who are losing faith in America's willingness to prevent nuclearisation of the region. For most of them Tehran crashing upon the world stage with a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future presents a doomsday scenario. Though Iran vehemently denies harbouring nuclear weapon ambitions and insists its uranium enrichment programme is meant for medical purposes, there are few who take the clerical regime at its word. Mocking the West, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared that the Bushehr reactor was a symbol of Iranian resistance and determination and, as a further show of defiance, launched the first domestically-built drone bomber capable of carrying cruise missiles up to a range of 1,000 km calling it an "ambassador of death" to keep the enemy paralysed in its bases.
Iran's show of defiance of UN sanctions is bolstered by the support it receives from Russia and China. The Bushehr reactor is a joint venture of Iran and Russia, will be fully fuelled and operated by Russian engineers for at least two years and Moscow will take back the spent fuel to prevent its misuse, meaning further enrichment to bomb-grade material. To help Iran beat the sanctions, Russia and China have supplied it refined petroleum products, weapons and other goods and entered into lucrative contracts in the energy and other fields. They thus effectively challenged America's power and influence in West Asia and provided a shield of sorts against moves to knock out Tehran's uranium enrichment facilities. Even though US Arab allies feel greatly concerned, its inaction to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state seems to have demoralised them.
A Shiate nuclear bomb would be an unacceptable proposition for its Sunni neighbours because their security would be endangered. Iran's relentless pursuit of uranium enrichment -- for the present upto 20 percent purity -- and its refusal to take IAEA inspectors on board as regards all such facilities, has fuelled fears that its programme masks a weapon drive. While collaborating in the Bushehr atomic power plant, Moscow has pointed out that all its operations will be conducted under IAEA supervision and hence diversion of spent fuel for military purposes was not possible. The US State Department spokesman has poured cold water on the hopes of Iran's shaky neighbours by recognising that Bushehr was designed to produce civilian nuclear power. Apparently, with Congressional elections due in November, President Obama is in no mood to launch another Middle East adventure and thinks of a negotiated solution of the enrichment problem. The hardliners, who are not prepared to trust Iran, argue that Bushehr is a sideshow in the nuclear standoff and should not detract attention form the real issue of enrichment.
The anti-Iran mood in a large section of the US establishment, together with the intense exertions of the non-proliferation lobby within the US bureaucracy has hardened attitudes. Iran acquiring nuclear weapons through the clandestine route of power reactors has increased the threat perception of the Arab states in general and the Gulf in particular. These states fear that a Shiate Iran armed with nuclear weapons will be better equipped to destabilise the region. Some of these states have sizeable Shiite populations which they fear could become breeding grounds for their internal destabilisation. The fear stalking the US and the West generally is that after acquiring nuclear weapons, Iran would emerge as the major power in the region with the strength of its armed forces and its oil reserves, making it impossible to contain it. It could also increase its hostility to Israel, whose right to exist is not recognised by Tehran even now.
With such a strong rival to Israel emerging and the Gulf states finding themselves militarily vulnerable and open to destabilisation, core western interests in the region could be compromised and the balance of power would decisively shift against the west. With a nuclear deterrent in possession, at whatever point of time that happens, Iran would be in a position to impede vital western interests in a number of ways.
The pressure on the US and the West to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is now likely to grow stronger, with Tehran having taken the first major step towards acquiring nuclear fuel. Iran could cheat by stopping the nuclear reactor midway to extract plutonium, which also is used for making atomic weapons, despite the IAEA inspectors and Russian assurances.
Most of the Gulf states being oil-exporters, Iran's capability to stop the flow of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz presents a nightmarish scenario for them. In their view, a nuclear Iran would be well positioned to cause instability in some of its neighbouring oil-rich states. Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest oil reserves, felt greatly concerned by the revelation of Pakistan's clandestine help to Iran with the supply of centrifuges for uranium enrichment and other equipment and know how related to nuclear weaponisation. Riyadh has always regarded Tehran as a potential threat to its security and has fully backed US efforts to prevent Tehran from enriching uranium and acquiring the raw material for a nuclear bomb, the design of which also formed part of the notorious A. Q. Khan network transfers.
Iran insists that it needs 20 per cent enriched uranium for medical purposes though metals other than uranium are most frequently used in radiation treatment machines. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy estabilishment Ali Akbar Salehi has revealed that his country has already accumulated 17 kg of uranium enriched to 20 per cent, without revealing the source. He also claimed that Iran had the capacity to enrich uranium "to any percentage", and this was a legal right for the country. His statement removes all doubts about Iran's capability as highly enriched uranium refined to a level above 90 per cent can be used for making atomic weapons. Such enrichment is possible with the help of the latest centrifuges which it has installed without let or hindrance in defiance of the sanctions and through clandestine routes.
The neighbouring Arab States argue that Iran finds it easier to pursue its weapons goal under sanctions because it is answerable to none for doing so. All its activities in that direction are not open to inspection. North Korea became a nuclear weapon state in this manner and continues its weapon programme unhindered, obviously under China's protection. The mediatory efforts by turkey and Brazil to bring Iran on board have not succeeded. Although they agreed to take away low-enriched uranium from Iran and supply it stuff of 20 per cent purity, not a gramme of uranium has so far been transferred.
Apart from direct help from Russia and China, Iran is beating sanctions in a variety of ways. These include repeatedly renaming ships to evade port authorities' scrutiny and by bribing middlemen to route illicit shipments in round about ways to disguise their destination. Iran has also set up its own shell companies from the Caribbean to the Isle of Man. The UAE authorities recently closed some 40 Iranian companies suspected of channeling embargoes goods to Iran from across the world, but hundreds are known to be still in business.
Russia is going ahead with cooperation in the energy sector and with supplies of S-300 air defence missiles, in addition to massive hardware it has already given through commercial deals. Washington's frustration also stems from the fact that Russia and China have effectively neutralised the effect of UN sanctions by supplying Iran with its needs and pursuing economic, defence and commercial interests with it. Russia and Iran together hold 20 per cent of the global oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas. Russia's Gazprom has offered technical support and indicated willingness to finance a planned gas pipeline form Iran to Pakistan and India.
Although New Delhi has followed the UN sanctions it believes in a negotiated settlement of Iran's uranium enrichment issue. But, it has reservations about the unilateral US and EU sanctions which would hit its economic interests also. Indian oil imports from Iran are to the tune of 18 million tonnes annually and investment in the energy sector is about $ 100 million, which is slated to grow.
Future US strategy in the face of Iran's persistent defiance is still nuclear, but it seems unlikely that Washington and Tol Aviv will exercise the military option to knock out Iran's enrichment facilities. The Arab states are getting worried and are disinclined to accept what seems like fiat accompli.
