Iran's Ballistic Missile test :Implications

[Irfan Baloch]

Note:
please note following are my personal notes and opinions and without any favour or malice to any party that loves or hates Iran.


U.S., allies demand UN action after Iran missile test| Reuters

So Saudis and Israelis will secretly (or not so Secretly) celebrating with the air of "told you so" to the Americans. the Iran did exactly which it shouldnt have done (to my understanding) when the world specially west is finding excuses to bring Iran back to the business world and open up trade with it.

but it seems that the hawks in Iran were getting bored and restless and they HAD to do something provocative to spoil all the hard efforts of Iranian government in the successful nuclear deal and potential of Iran opening up to the west.

no matter what articulate counter narrative you build up. this test is nothing but a spanner in the entire effort of normalisation of relations of Iran with the world for its own sake. it not only reduced the imminient Sauid/ Israeli sponsored raid on Iran but also a possible outbreak of war and further chaos in middle east. many other countries that celebrated over the successful negotiaitons (like Pakistan and India) due to eventual ease of trade with Iran find themselves in the quagmire. India was eyeing a port in Iran as well.

I mean no disrespect to Iranian nation and its history but when I read and saw the news of this nuclear capable Missile test ... the first word that came to my mind was "YOU IDIOTS"!! (meant for blowhard gnostic Iranian clergy ).


I am sorry, but I am really disappointed at this development and it only further strengthens the case of Israel and Saudis against Iran.

NOW NOW.. hold on.. I know you will be able to bear it as you did suffer even worse case situations but why invite trouble to yourself?

 

[Zarvan]

Note:
please note following are my personal notes and opinions and without any favour or malice to any party that loves or hates Iran.


U.S., allies demand UN action after Iran missile test| Reuters

So Saudis and Israelis will secretly (or not so Secretly) celebrating with the air of "told you so" to the Americans. the Iran did exactly which it shouldnt have done (to my understanding) when the world specially west is finding excuses to bring Iran back to the business world and open up trade with it.

but it seems that the hawks in Iran were getting bored and restless and they HAD to do something provocative to spoil all the hard efforts of Iranian government in the successful nuclear deal and potential of Iran opening up to the west.

no matter what articulate counter narrative you build up. this test is nothing but a spanner in the entire effort of normalisation of relations of Iran with the world for its own sake. it not only reduced the imminient Sauid/ Israeli sponsored raid on Iran but also a possible outbreak of war and further chaos in middle east. many other countries that celebrated over the successful negotiaitons (like Pakistan and India) due to eventual ease of trade with Iran find themselves in the quagmire. India was eyeing a port in Iran as well.

I mean no disrespect to Iranian nation and its history but when I read and saw the news of this nuclear capable Missile test ... the first word that came to my mind was "YOU IDIOTS"!! (meant for blowhard gnostic Iranian clergy ).


I am sorry, but I am really disappointed at this development and it only further strengthens the case of Israel and Saudis against Iran.

NOW NOW.. hold on.. I know you will be able to bear it as you did suffer even worse case situations but why invite trouble to yourself?

Problem is Iran still has massive resistance from within against the deal so Government is trying to show a hard stand

 

[TurAr]

but it seems that the hawks in Iran were getting bored and restless and they HAD to do something provocative to spoil all the hard efforts of Iranian government in the successful nuclear deal and potential of Iran opening up to the west.

Apparently, Iran is still suffering under the multi headed governance. Different factions like clergy and army, hawks and doves have been undermining each other's operations for quite some time, even at the expense of damaging Iran.

If this was really happened without the blessing of the Iranian government as you are suggesting, then it means there are some serious issues and differences between the Iranian elite that requires some serious attention before Iran can possibly move forward with the deal.

 

[CHD]

I was really looking forward to iranian gas and some electricity for gawadar

 

[Serpentine]

Note:
please note following are my personal notes and opinions and without any favour or malice to any party that loves or hates Iran.


U.S., allies demand UN action after Iran missile test| Reuters

So Saudis and Israelis will secretly (or not so Secretly) celebrating with the air of "told you so" to the Americans. the Iran did exactly which it shouldnt have done (to my understanding) when the world specially west is finding excuses to bring Iran back to the business world and open up trade with it.

but it seems that the hawks in Iran were getting bored and restless and they HAD to do something provocative to spoil all the hard efforts of Iranian government in the successful nuclear deal and potential of Iran opening up to the west.

no matter what articulate counter narrative you build up. this test is nothing but a spanner in the entire effort of normalisation of relations of Iran with the world for its own sake. it not only reduced the imminient Sauid/ Israeli sponsored raid on Iran but also a possible outbreak of war and further chaos in middle east. many other countries that celebrated over the successful negotiaitons (like Pakistan and India) due to eventual ease of trade with Iran find themselves in the quagmire. India was eyeing a port in Iran as well.

I mean no disrespect to Iranian nation and its history but when I read and saw the news of this nuclear capable Missile test ... the first word that came to my mind was "YOU IDIOTS"!! (meant for blowhard gnostic Iranian clergy ).


I am sorry, but I am really disappointed at this development and it only further strengthens the case of Israel and Saudis against Iran.

NOW NOW.. hold on.. I know you will be able to bear it as you did suffer even worse case situations but why invite trouble to yourself?

Bro, let me disagree with you a 100%.

The nuclear deal is supposed to only be about nuclear program, nothing more. Iran's missile program is a strategic part of our defense doctrine and they their aim is nothing short of seeing all of it gone (which they won't). Iran's leader said few months ago that, after nuclear deal, they will resort to other ridiculous excuses like ballistic missiles, human rights, blah blah to add new sanctions and we are seeing the exact same thing happening.

Now they are asking us not to develop our defense capabilities? Well in their dreams, no sovereign and independent nation in the world accepts that. What would your reaction be if they asked Pakistan not to fly its F-16s or not to produce or enhance its missile arsenal? Would you accept it or tolerate it?

So it's better to make things clear now, if they are planning to bring ridiculous excuses after nuclear deal and play games, no deal is better than a deal and let it be clear from now. No country in the world negotiates on its defense capabilities, you can call us idiots for that or whatsoever, but that's the reality.

And you are deeply wrong if you think that missile tests are an act by 'hardliners' to sabotage the deal, the exact opposite. The president himself encouraged all the tests and there is a broad consensus in this regard among ALL parties that Iran's weapons industry is a red line and there is nothing there to negotiate about.

And see what happened after they tried to impose sanctions and Iran answered by ordering to expand the program.

White House Delays Imposing New Sanctions on Iran for Missile Program - WSJ

Today it's about missiles, tomorrow it will be about producing any weapons and after that, they'll say you can't shoot a bullet inside your country for test. Finally, it will be a total surrender, all while they are arming their top dogs in the region non-stop, e.g Israel and Saudis and other banana Arab regimes. Please bro, don't act like you don't know about dirty games the U.S plays. If anything, fate of Gaddaffi, Saddam and others should be a good lesson. We are not planning anything like that, but we are seeking a China-like scenario, in which we will be powerful enough in a way that they have to act based on mutual respect.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Apparently, Iran is still suffering under the multi headed governance. Different factions like clergy and army, hawks and doves have been undermining each other's operations for quite some time, even at the expense of damaging Iran.

If this was really happened without the blessing of the Iranian government as you are suggesting, then it means there are some serious issues and differences between the Iranian elite that requires some serious attention before Iran can possibly move forward with the deal.

you summed it up well. very precise and complete answer. yes your post supports my thinking but I appreciate that no one can complain that there was any insult or mockery

 

[TurAr]

The nuclear deal is supposed to only be about nuclear program, nothing more. Iran's missile program is a strategic part of our defense doctrine and they their aim is nothing short of seeing all of it gone (which they won't). Iran's leader said few months ago that, after nuclear deal, they will resort to other ridiculous excuses like ballistic missiles, human rights, blah blah to add new sanctions and we are seeing the exact same thing happening

Actually, it seems there is more to it than just the nuclear program:

"Ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned under a 2010 Security Council resolution that remains valid until a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers is implemented.

Under that deal, reached on July 14, most sanctions on Iran will be lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Once it takes effect, Iran will still be "called upon" to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years.

U.S. and European officials have said it is unlikely the deal will be fully implemented before next year.

The deal allows for supply of ballistic missile technology to Tehran with Security Council approval, but the United States has pledged to veto any such requests.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday conditionally approved the nuclear deal but warned it would be violated if any of the six world powers imposed any sanctions on any level and under any pretext."

U.S., allies demand UN action after Iran missile test| Reuters

 

[Irfan Baloch]

I was really looking forward to iranian gas and some electricity for gawadar

and with Indians involved also in trade it was going to further help the Iranians and take pressure off us since Indians have a political and economic clout too.
it seems that it has been challenged now
requesting any Indian point of view on it since it will be pragmatic and unbiased.
@illusion8 @MilSpec @Joe Shearer

 

[Serpentine]

Under that deal, reached on July 14, most sanctions on Iran will be lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. Once it takes effect, Iran will still be "called upon" to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years.

No. "called upon" does not bring any legal commitment unlike previous resolution 1929 which said Iran "shall not" do ballistic missile test. It's just more of an advice, otherwise, since day 1 of negotiations, it was already made clear not even smallest limitation on missile program will not be accepted.

 

[MilSpec]

and with Indians involved also in trade it was going to further help the Iranians and take pressure off us since Indians have a political and economic clout too.
it seems that it has been challenged now
requesting any Indian point of view on it since it will be pragmatic and unbiased.
@illusion8 @MilSpec @Joe Shearer

The complain seems to be invalid as US officials are on record that the test has no bearing on the nuclear deal, now Iran was asked to refrain from developing nuclear delivery missiles for next the 8 years once the deal goes thorugh which still hasn't.

So Iran has ways to cover it's ideas. Every missile with a cone big enough to fit a RV is capable of delivering a nuclear device, if anything a rocket strapped with a elementary nuclear device can too fling a nuclear weapon. Iran could have played it slightly different by changing the test into a SLV test article or a sounding rocket instead of calling it a BM.

What is done is done, it would he helpful for Iran to either promote other stories so the world looks elsewhere for other alarms, and develop back channel with US, Germany, France and UK, to reassure Israel that strategic equation will remain cool.

I am not sure if you had seen the Maz Jobrani's stand up, Irans diplomacy needs to promote , "Persian Meooow".

 

[IceCold]

Bro, let me disagree with you a 100%.

The nuclear deal is supposed to only be about nuclear program, nothing more. Iran's missile program is a strategic part of our defense doctrine and they their aim is nothing short of seeing all of it gone (which they won't). Iran's leader said few months ago that, after nuclear deal, they will resort to other ridiculous excuses like ballistic missiles, human rights, blah blah to add new sanctions and we are seeing the exact same thing happening.

Now they are asking us not to develop our defense capabilities? Well in their dreams, no sovereign and independent nation in the world accepts that. What would your reaction be if they asked Pakistan not to fly its F-16s or not to produce or enhance its missile arsenal? Would you accept it or tolerate it?

So it's better to make things clear now, if they are planning to bring ridiculous excuses after nuclear deal and play games, no deal is better than a deal and let it be clear from now. No country in the world negotiates on its defense capabilities, you can call us idiots for that or whatsoever, but that's the reality.

And you are deeply wrong if you think that missile tests are an act by 'hardliners' to sabotage the deal, the exact opposite. The president himself encouraged all the tests and there is a broad consensus in this regard among ALL parties that Iran's weapons industry is a red line and there is nothing there to negotiate about.

And see what happened after they tried to impose sanctions and Iran answered by ordering to expand the program.

White House Delays Imposing New Sanctions on Iran for Missile Program - WSJ

Today it's about missiles, tomorrow it will be about producing any weapons and after that, they'll say you can't shoot a bullet inside your country for test. Finally, it will be a total surrender, all while they are arming their top dogs in the region non-stop, e.g Israel and Saudis and other banana Arab regimes. Please bro, don't act like you don't know about dirty games the U.S plays. If anything, fate of Gaddaffi, Saddam and others should be a good lesson. We are not planning anything like that, but we are seeking a China-like scenario, in which we will be powerful enough in a way that they have to act based on mutual respect.

If Iran always knew that after nuclear deal the west specially us will find other excuses to sanction Iran (and I agree with that assessment) question is why entered into one one? Wouldn't it be better if Iran actually did build nuclear weapons and means to deliver it, it would have put these western champs along with their supporters into their place.

 

[raptor22]

It's silly and laughable First they threatened by military option on daily basis then they baned us from buying any weapons even defensive weapons like what happened to S-300 AD and now they are telling us no weapon production or test ...
How do they expect a nation not to work on its defense capabilities? is Iranian army supposed to fight back by shovel or stick?

Sod off ...

If Iran always knew that after nuclear deal the west specially us will find other excuses to sanction Iran (and I agree with that assessment) question is why entered into one one? Wouldn't it be better if Iran actually did build nuclear weapons and means to deliver it, it would have put these western champs along with their supporters into their place.

We are a nuclear threshold country, we have the needed knowledge to build a nuke ... but we don't want to make it ...

 

[TurAr]

No. "called upon" does not bring any legal commitment unlike previous resolution 1929 which said Iran "shall not" do ballistic missile test. It's just more of an advice, otherwise, since day 1 of negotiations, it was already made clear not even smallest limitation on missile program will not be accepted.

Read it again. Ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned until a nuclear deal is reached. Even after it takes effect (which has not yet), Iran will still be called upon to refrain from the tests for up to eight years.

 

[Serpentine]

Read it again. Ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned until a nuclear deal is reached. Even after it takes effect (which has not yet), Iran will still be called upon to refrain from the tests for up to eight years.

Well, no sanctions have been lifted either, so it doesn't make any difference, since we didn't implement 1929 resolution even for 1 day. After the deal is implemented, the resolution will be non-binding.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Bro, let me disagree with you a 100%.

The nuclear deal is supposed to only be about nuclear program, nothing more. Iran's missile program is a strategic part of our defense doctrine and they their aim is nothing short of seeing all of it gone (which they won't). Iran's leader said few months ago that, after nuclear deal, they will resort to other ridiculous excuses like ballistic missiles, human rights, blah blah to add new sanctions and we are seeing the exact same thing happening..

agreed in principle under normal circumstances for any other country.
the issue here is . the country in question is Iran

• remained under strict/ unfair economic sanctions for decades
• faced/ faces imminent attack on its nuclear sites
• faced/ faces constant assassination of its nuclear related experts, technicians, scientists
• faced/ faces organised campaign by Arab/ Israel collation through media and politics even an invasion.
• faced/ faces insurgency and terrorism funded and supported by hostile foreign agencies.
• faced/ faces a spectre of invasion by the west with UN names sake approval.

and despite all this,, through brinkmanship , hard work and persistence of Iranian negotiators and other well wishers of Iran .. a deal was struck which was hailed by the entire world and almost everyone involved gave a sigh of relief except two countries in the middle east.

so the prudent approach from Iran should have been to wait and play it mildly and slowly. it has already won, morally and politically. its two bitter enemies cursing and bickering over "American betrayal" and getting sidelined by the eorld that made a queue to start business with Iran. Americans keen, European union keen, Indians keen, Chinese keen, Pakistanis keen, Russians keen...

and then this.
to me it looked like a sabotage by people within the Iranian setup who want to humiliate Ruhani. and tell you what. if I was Saudi or Israeli, I would be popping Champaign and poking fingers in the eyes of Obama saying
"told you .. Iran cant be trusted".. now leave it to us.. we will deal with it.

I am a pragmatic man, I am firm believer in prevention is better than cure. if its not broken .. don't fix it. as a sovereign nation Iran has right to what it thinks is best for it including verifying its defence and deterrent. but in order to do that Iran has to shorten the distance between itself and all its well wishing countries and widen the gap between those who day and night dream of invading Iran and turning it into another Iraq/ Syria experiment.
I don't know how much this missile test has helped Iran in real defence terms but it has had some negative impact on the efforts of those in the American leadership that are up for closer and cordial ties with Iran.