Iranian retaliation, scenarios (how to respond?)

[Dariush the Great]

Ok guys we all know Israel is behind the recent sabotage attacks inside Iran and at the moment of writing Iranian military planners and intelligence are having meetings on how to appropiately respond to their actions without inviting more retaliation or even an open attack on Iranian soil directly.

What i have in mind, the following scenarios all are carried out with plausible deniability through third groups.

a) targeting Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan
The Americans are not the ones responsible for the recent sabotage attempts according to Iranian intelligence but maybe this can put pressure on the US to tell the Israelis to back off ?

b) Massive coordinated cyber attacks targeting the IDF and the civilian network inside Israel such as Ben Gurion airport, Dimona reactor etc
This maybe on the same level as the Israeli attacks but in my idea it won't really deter the Israelis from striking back.

c) Sudden massive nightly pinpoint BM/Drone attack against IDF and other sensitive military installation.
This may prompt a retaliation from Israeli airforce that perhaps will involve Iran directly itself

d) Killing of Israeli elite such as top scientists, professors, doctors engineers by targeted assassinations.
This is risky and might again prompt the Israelis to repeat what they have been doing in the past.

e) blowing up or capturing a Israeli ship near the Persian gulf or the Red/Arabian sea
psychological blow as the Israeli's wouldn't know how to cope with it as it is too far for them. In my opinion this is for sure among the best options available.

f) Shooting down of Israeli passenger plane, this sounds a bit evil but is in the same category as the attack on civilian refineries that has been targeted by the enemy. IMO this has a huge psychological effect and may fully deter the Israelis from taking more action.

g) Small scale invasion/attack on Israeli border outposts,barracks. Penetrating into Israel.
for sure least popular but it has to involve a joint Hezbollah and Syrian army operation. And not much realistic.

The question remains and the Iranian intelligence and decision makers are meeting and still deciding how to respond. Your ideas ?

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran is gonna do nothing. The leadership are way too pragmatic. Israel is trying to get Iran to respond in order to keep arms embargo on Iran and refer nuclear file to UN Security Council.

Iran would be doing the same thing if roles were reversed.

Iran won’t do anything. I mean when Afghanistan Taliban beheaded a bunch of diplomats Iran did nothing in 90’s besides a fake war preparation. History has shown Iran doesn’t respond to attacks on itself minus the PR stunts against ISIS which was the human punching bag of all militaries around the world the last few years.

Let’s remind ourselves we are here because Iran has been probing the defenses (both military and cyber) of Israel for last 10 years gathering intelligence.

 

[Beny Karachun]

f) Shooting down of Israeli passenger plane, this sounds a bit evil but is in the same category as the attack on civilian refineries that has been targeted by the enemy. IMO this has a huge psychological effect and may fully deter the Israelis from taking more action.

Be careful, you might confuse our plane with an Iranian one

Iran is not capable of doing most of these steps.
And whatever it is able to do, Israel can retaliate a thousand times worse.

 

[Blue In Green]

Iran is gonna do nothing. The leadership are way too pragmatic. Israel is trying to get Iran to respond in order to keep arms embargo on Iran and refer nuclear file to UN Security Council.

Iran would be doing the same thing if roles were reversed.

Iran won’t do anything. I mean when Afghanistan Taliban beheaded a bunch of diplomats Iran did nothing in 90’s besides a fake war preparation. History has shown Iran doesn’t respond to attacks on itself minus the PR stunts against ISIS which was the human punching bag of all militaries around the world the last few years.

Let’s remind ourselves we are here because Iran has been probing the defenses (both military and cyber) of Israel for last 10 years gathering intelligence.

Realistically then bro, what's is the endgame?

That's what many of us here seem to argue on as a lot of our frustration does indeed stem from that very pragmatic nature of the current Iranian leadership. Although I don't necessarily place the blame on them entirely, if we account for other long-term goals and other objectives, Iran getting into a hot-war with Israel doesn't bode all that well since Iran has other milestones it wants to see completed namely the recent (idk the veracity of it) deal with China "25 year plan". I would imagine a war with Israel would see those plans set-back quite a bit potentially.

But then again, Iran has been getting hammered by Zionist Squatters for years now and has done little to nothing in return and now the Israelis are seemingly operating in Iran with relative impunity. How far will they go? And what can be considered too far even for Iran. There must be some "red-line" that once crossed will warrant an Iranian retaliation more in-line with what Israel does to Iran on the weekly....

 

[Dexon]

lol none of them.iran decided what going to do. help more palestinian to take back their land...

 

[TNT]

So iran responds to US (staged drama) and will not respond to Israel?
Frankly though i would like to see iran directly target IDF and israelis. This would also massively increase iranian support among many.

 

[Blue In Green]

The only reassuring thing I can reliably fall back on is Iran's general advancement in domestic military technology. If a war to break-out between the two then I would want it to be in the future as it gives Iran more of an upper-hand as well as time to expand missile bases, firing platforms (more TELS), better Radars and AD's, larger missile arsenal, hopefully better training.....etc.

 

[GWXP]

Everything will pass.....no need to retaliate at this moment...

US is already in deep shit with coronavirus and protests and recession and exploding federal deficit and debt levels

Israel can be sent to stone age with 70 Hezbollah missiles anytime, so no need to hurry

 

[Falcon29]

Iran has no ideological problems with Israel and never gonna go to war with it. Irans interests is in Saudi/Gulf/Iraq. Ultimately, if war in region happened Iran will just talk with US and assure them their war is not with Israel but that they want to be allowed to attack Saudi Arabia, Iraqis and other Gulf nations in region.

Everything will pass.....no need to retaliate at this moment...

US is already in deep shit with coronavirus and protests and recession and exploding federal deficit and debt levels

Israel can be sent to stone age with 70 Hezbollah missiles anytime, so no need to hurry

Why don't you just be honest with Iranian people, Iranian gov't is scared of real war and direct involvement of theirs in war. And also Iran has no ideological problem with Israel thus it's very hard for Iranian regime to justify attacking them for any reason. While also Iranian regime officials are corrupt and are the wealthy in Iran and they don't care about resistance or whatever they sell to their people. It's not a serious thing but way to get into power and make money.

They not gonna sacrifice their standing and wealth in society . It is not about strategic thinking. There is no strategic thinking by this regime when it orders it's militias to attack Saudis and Iraqi protesters/activists.

 

[Philosopher]

Few important points to note. These attacks are done by internal saboteurs. Iran is a very large country. It is not hard to plant explosives here and there. Out of the 4 explosions we have seen, half were in civilian sectors. This highlights the desperation of the enemies to try and spark anything in Iran. This is due to their inability to act against Iran directly. I wrote in more details in the other thread, here is a shorter version:

People should not forget the obvious, if Iran wants, it can greatly harm Israel with ease. I have spoken many times in this forum that we are engaged in a long term game. You do not sacrifice your long term goals by some knee jerk reactions fuelled by emotions. These three incidents you have seen are done by internal saboteurs. We know they exist, all major nations have such people in the land of their adversaries. And of course such saboteurs will take advantage if they can. The main question that has to be addressed is how such a thing could come to pass? Clearly there was either a transient or longer lax in security and defence measures.

These attack could have been requested by the Americans due the pressure Trump is feeling regarding Iran nuclear program. Israel could also be behind it due to the rather humiliating cyberattack they faced by Iran on their water facilities recently where the safety of their populace was at the discretion of Iranian hackers (they could have increased the chlorine levels). Israel is under tremendous pressure. They are being surrounded by Iran in multiple fronts and they see this as an existential threat, especially when adding Iran's nuclear latency. Israel's surrounding and check mate is an inevitability, that is why Iran is not resorting to overt actions every-time a building is destroyed sporadically. Nevertheless, you will see a response to these attacks against the perpetrators. These three attacks were in reality a blunder by the enemies of Iran. They revealed their hands too early.

 

[Draco.IMF]

"and considers an important Gulf Country also responsible" -> SA?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1280552554489839617

 

[Falcon29]

"and considers an important Gulf Country also responsible" -> SA?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1280552554489839617

As expected Iranian regime will blame Arabs for an Israeli op.

 

[chauvunist]

So Iran is looking for a Muslim country scapegoat to retaliate against as Iran will never Target Israel..Israel has been killing their Generals and attacking their assets in Syria for a long time now and we haven't seen any of action against them despite Israel right next door to Syria..

 

[Philosopher]

As expected Iranian regime will blame Arabs for an Israeli op.

Conveniently you choose not to see the obvious "with #Israel" in that tweet.

 

[Falcon29]

Few important points to note. These attacks are done by internal saboteurs. Iran is a very large country. It is not hard to plant explosives here and there. Out of the 4 explosions we have seen, half were in civilian sectors. This highlights the desperation of the enemies to try and spark anything in Iran. This is due to their inability to act against Iran directly. I wrote in more details in the other thread, here is a shorter version:

People should not forget the obvious, if Iran wants, it can greatly harm Israel with ease. I have spoken many times in this forum that we are engaged in a long term game. You do not sacrifice your long term goals by some knee jerk reactions fuelled by emotions. These three incidents you have seen are done by internal saboteurs. We know they exist, all major nations have such people in the land of their adversaries. And of course such saboteurs will take advantage if they can. The main question that has to be addressed is how such a thing could come to pass? Clearly there was either a transient or longer lax in security and defence measures.

These attack could have been requested by the Americans due the pressure Trump is feeling regarding Iran nuclear program. Israel could also be behind it due to the rather humiliating cyberattack they faced by Iran on their water facilities recently where the safety of their populace was at the discretion of Iranian hackers (they could have increased the chlorine levels). Israel is under tremendous pressure. They are being surrounded by Iran in multiple fronts and they see this as an existential threat, especially when adding Iran's nuclear latency. Israel's surrounding and check mate is an inevitability, that is why Iran is not resorting to overt actions every-time a building is destroyed sporadically. Nevertheless, you will see a response to these attacks against the perpetrators. These three attacks were in reality a blunder by the enemies of Iran. They revealed their hands too early.

There is only two attacks that are considered sabotage by Iranian authorities and rest are civilian accidents as per Iranian authorities. So no civilian areas were targeted and there is no desperation here.

They have ability to hit you from within, and you are twisting this and calling it desperation on their part? If anything, you are the desperate one trying to pain rosy picture about the situation.

Israel is not under any pressure by Iran and strikes Iranian weapons storages and assets in Syria without consequences. If you are under pressure you step back and take the hits. They are not taking any hits from Iran nor its allies, only Palestinians from Gaza who are actually interested in 'resisting' Israel unlike Iranian regime.

You also claim Iran is playing long game but we don't see this when it launches attack on Saudi Arabia or attacks on Turkish troops in Syria. Iran uses its cards against these Muslim nations but never use one card against Israel even though it can do so and would risk only a small Israeli retaliation. So either you guys are scared or you consider Israeli's as your brothers.

Conveniently you choose not to see the obvious "with #Israel" in that tweet.

Sorry dude but we are not tolerating Iran's sectarianism anymore. You guys tell us Arab regimes like Al-Saud are backwards and incompetent and can't do anything against Iran. Now Israel attack you and you blame Al-Saud for having a hand in it. Now they are suddenly very competent. And we know any military reprisal by Iran won't even target the culprit Israel. You guys are now talking about targeting a Gulf Muslim nation instead. Either shows fear of war or shows love of Israel. Make up your mind. Are you guys afraid of small skirmish with Israel and want to attack weak country instead or you guys have no hate with Israeli's and see only Arabs as enemy?