"
Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% grew by 6.7 kg (14.8 pounds) to 128.3 kg (282.9 pounds) since the last report on Sept. 4, one of the two reports to member states seen by Reuters said. That is more than
three times the roughly 42 kg (92.6 pounds) that by the IAEA's definition is theoretically enough, if enriched further, for a nuclear bomb.
The rate at which Iran is enriching to 60%, however, has slowed to around 3 kg (6.6 pounds) a month from 9 kg (19.8 pounds) earlier this year, which diplomats said is the
apparent result of indirect negotiations with the United States that led to a prisoner exchange between the two countries in September.
The
number of cascades, or clusters, of uranium-enriching centrifuges in operation
is also unchanged, the report said."
Iran has enough uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade, for three atom bombs and is still stonewalling the agency on key issues, confidential IAEA reports showed on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
Iran now has sufficient HEU (60%) for 4-5 nuclear warheads, sufficient HEU (20%) for 3-4 nuclear warheads and sufficient LEU (5%) for 8-9 nuclear warheads (if further enriched to 90%, which would take only a few weeks for the 20%/60% stockpile, a bit longer for the 5% stockpile) -->
latent capacity to produce 16-18 nuclear warheads at short notice (assuming 16kg of 90% HEU per warhead)
The stockpile of 60% and 20% HEU is the quickest and easiest path to nuclear capability for Iran -
within c. 3-4 weeks Iran could produce sufficient 90% HEU for 7-9 nuclear warheads, 2-3 for testing underground and 5-6 for operationalising on Khorramshahr-4/Fattah/Sejjil MRBMs. I am not sure how much work Iran did on miniaturisation of nuclear warheads pre-2003, but in any event co-operation with North Korea could streamline this process. Realistically, this is still too low for Iran to not be vulnerable during the interim period, but it's getting closer (if Iran can produce 10-20 warheads within 1 week, the calculus for intervention starts to shift IMO).
A dual strategy of amassing much more HEU (20% and 60%) and installing more cascades of advanced centrifuges (IR-4/6 suffice for now but ideally IR-8/9 in the coming years) would be ideal. Unfortunately Iran still uses thousands of IR-1/2 centrifuges and has not yet replaced these with IR-4/6 centrifuges. Hopefully we receive good news on testing of IR-8/9 soon. Any news on this?
@PeeD @AmirPatriot
At the current pace of enrichment to 5%, 20% and 60%, Iran is producing c. 12kg / month (once enriched to 90%) = sufficient for
one additional nuclear warhead every 1.5 months / 8 per year (albeit that it would take longer to enrich this stockpile of LEU to 90% in comparison to uranium enriched to 60% HEU, which is far slower unfortunately - sufficient for one additional warhead every 8-10 months)
