Iranian Chill Thread

[TheImmortal]

You cannot wipe out an insurgency group like Hamas. Even if you do, another group will rise to take their place. Imagine how many young Palestinians the Zionists have radicalised with their massacres of civilians and Nazi rhetoric.

Doesn’t matter. If they don’t have proper weapons. If Hamas is destroyed and Gaza is occupied, you are back to 1990’s level of weapons. Basically some assault rifles and maybe an RPG if your lucky.

Recently the Zionists have spoken of reducing the size of Gaza and occupying part of it. Ethnic cleansing north Gaza --> 'temporary' occupation --> incremental annexation? But I don't think this really helps them - if they want to seriously degrade militant groups in Gaza they ought to occupy south Gaza to cut off the border with Egypt, not the north.

Zionists want Gaza and West Bank. Not sure why this surprises anyone. They want all that land.

Indeed. People vastly overstate the destructive impact of ballistic missiles and the amount of munitions needed for a war.

You underestimate the explosive shockwave effect of basic physics. A Mach 6th object smacking into the ground creates an explosive shockwave in itself that an air to ground munition can never match.

Google ‘Tungsten Rod project’. You can get to tactical nuke level destructive power by just launching rods from space.

Even 1000 Khorramshahr-4 missiles (note: we have only seen 6-10 delivered) successfully impacting in Tel Aviv will do very little (Israel has dropped 4x as much bombs in tiny Gaza in a week).

Nonsense.

1000 K-4’s = 1,500,000 kg explosives + kinetic shockwave effect of each missile which acts as a force multiplier.

Israel has not dropped 3,330,000 lbs of explosives on Gaza let alone “4x as much” which is an absurd 13M+ lbs of munitions.

I will agree that missiles cannot match a long term high frequency bombing campaign.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714691200366588148

 

[SalarHaqq]

Completely insufficient. The casualties will be completely improprotional + Iranian land would be infected. It's fine to accept that we are in a tight spot due to this nuclear issue.

I was referencing a scenario of deterrence, by definition Iran will not sustain casualties in such a scenario.

The zionists fear Iran's missile power because it is sufficient to cause mass emigration from and thereby put an end to the viability of the settler state.

As soon as vital infrastructures in Occupied Palestine (which are limited in numbers) cease functioning due to coming under sustained BM fire, a significant portion of zionist settlers will find that giving up the comfort of safety in the USA, Canada, France, the UK etc simply isn't worth it.

 

[HGV]

Doesn’t matter. If they don’t have proper weapons. If Hamas is destroyed and Gaza is occupied, you are back to 1990’s level of weapons. Basically some assault rifles and maybe an RPG if your lucky.

After dropping 10,000+ bombs on Gaza in less than two weeks (3-6 million kg of explosives), Hamas and PIJ are still able to launch large rocket barrages towards Tel Aviv. So far there is no evidence that Israel is able to destroy this ability. To do that they would probably need to occupy all of Gaza to intercept the smuggling routes from Egypt, but that's not realistic.

You underestimate the explosive shockwave effect of basic physics. A Mach 6th object smacking into the ground creates an explosive shockwave in itself that an air to ground munition can never match.

I did not compare the kinetic impact, just the amount of explosives. A 1500kg warhead impacting at mach 10+ will obviously create a massive impact radius but Israel is also much larger than Gaza and has invested heavily in advanced AD systems. In any event, I repeat: 1000 Khorramshahr-4 missiles successfully defeating Israel's advanced and layered AD systems will not have as much impact on a war as you think.

Nonsense.

1000 K-4’s = 1,500,000 kg explosives + kinetic shockwave effect of each missile which acts as a force multiplier.

Israel has not dropped 3,330,000 lbs of explosives on Gaza let alone “4x as much” which is an absurd 13M+ lbs of munitions.

Israeli confirmed that they dropped 6000 bombs on Gaza 6 days ago (at this rate, the number is now probably 10,000-15,000): https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/is...pped-6-000-bombs-on-gaza-QK1aSnupiGqytMVO86PU

MK-84 bomb contains c. 500kg of explosives. 10,000 x 500 = 5,000,000kg (kg, not lbs). (This is, of course, a very rough estimate.)

I will agree that missiles cannot match a long term high frequency bombing campaign.

Indeed. Nor can they match WMDs. Israel is capable of(/possesses) both, Iran neither.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714727789163602170

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714733884116447434

 

[Stryker1982]

Indeed. People vastly overstate the destructive impact of ballistic missiles and vastly understate the amount of munitions needed for a war.

It is worth mentioning, the impact of a long range conventional BM is quite devastating if used in urban areas, or near front lines, but yeah, never will be able to compete with standard gravity bombs in terms of numbers.

 

[BigMelatonin]

It's time to unveil the nukes or WMDs, I know you have them.......

The west has shown it will accept outright genocide, realistically, it will excuse nuclear weapon use. By not pursuing nuclear weapons, you're basically just tying your own hand at this point as "Israel" will use them in any confrontation and suffer no consequences.

 

[Stryker1982]

1000 K-4’s = 1,500,000 kg explosives

K-4s" have a 1500kg warhead? Interesting.

The engine is quite complex, so to build 1000....would be take a few years I think.

Would be just as useful if you built Shahab-3's with extended range and 600kg warhead. I would not be surprised if you can build 3 Shahab-3's for 1 K-4 in terms of price and time.

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714740461313696248

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714737055547240471

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714727438146523322

 

[SalarHaqq]

Israel's endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza​

By Samia Nakhoul, Matt Spetalnick a,d Alexander Cornwell

October 18, 20238:53 PM GMT+2
Updated an hour ago

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-endgame-no-sign-post-war-plan-gaza-2023-10-18/

Some interesting bits:

There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold onto any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.

A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit.

The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon's Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.

Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel's northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.

The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.

Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, expressed deep skepticism about the potential for establishing a post-Hamas government to rule Gaza.

"I could paint you a picture more appropriate to a galaxy far, far away and not on planet Earth on how you could combine the U.N., the Palestinian Authority, the Saudis, the Egyptians, led by the U.S. marshalling the Europeans, to basically convert Gaza from an open-air prison to something much better," he said.

In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians has drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714736197933605163

 

[TheImmortal]

K-4s" have a 1500kg warhead? Interesting.

The engine is quite complex, so to build 1000....would be take a few years I think.

Would be just as useful if you built Shahab-3's with extended range and 600kg warhead. I would not be surprised if you can build 3 Shahab-3's for 1 K-4 in terms of price and time.

K-4 is just a modified H-10/12 which itself is just a modified Soviet R-27.

So maybe your confusing K-4 with Fattah?

 

[Stryker1982]

K-4 is just a modified H-10/12 which itself is just a modified Soviet R-27.

So maybe your confusing K-4 with Fattah?

For some reason, I assumed it had a 650kg warhead cause I figured it was an IRBM, but I forgot we reduce range to 2000km.

Terminal velocity, probably at low hypersonic? with 1500kg warhead. What a horrific weapon lol.

 

[HGV]

K-4s" have a 1500kg warhead? Interesting.

The engine is quite complex, so to build 1000....would be take a few years I think.

Would be just as useful if you built Shahab-3's with extended range and 600kg warhead. I would not be surprised if you can build 3 Shahab-3's for 1 K-4 in terms of price and time.

Shahab-3 is modified SCUD/Nodong which lacks accuracy and follows a predictable trajectory - it's food for Israeli Patriot missiles.

Iran has large numbers of SCUD-based MRBMs (Shahab 3, Ghadr, Rezvan, Emad) and smaller numbers of advanced precision-guided MRBMs (Fattah, Khorramshahr-4).

This leaves, in my view, two approaches to a large-scale missile strike against Israel:

1. Use large number of SCUD-based missiles to saturate Israeli air defences and drain missile interceptors, degrading Israel's AD network, then follow-up with targeted strikes of Fattah and Khorramshahr-4, giving the best missiles the highest chance of successful impact. The US will be on hand to resupply these interceptors, so this has to happen quickly.
2. Use Fattah and Khorramshahr-4 to target Israeli AD sites to degrade Israel's AD network (i.e. by targeting large radars and known SAM sites), then follow-up with large numbers of SCUD-based missiles which will be able to inflict significant damage.

The first route seems too wasteful and the IRGC seem to have designed Fattah specifically for the purpose in the second route. Of course, this ignores the role of UAVs and LACMs (and proxies).

 

[HGV]

For some reason, I assumed it had a 650kg warhead cause I figured it was an IRBM, but I forgot we reduce range to 2000km.

Terminal velocity, probably at low hypersonic? with 1500kg warhead. What a horrific weapon lol.

K-4 has a claimed max speed of mach 16 outside the atmosphere and mach 8 inside the atmosphere