Russia Getting Iranian Attack Drones Would Be A Very Big Deal
However, the reference to “several hundred UAVs” sounds much more like a smaller type of UAV, perhaps the kind that has become widely known as a ‘suicide drone’ or ‘kamikaze drone’ on account of its one-way mission.
There are multiple examples in the Middle East of Iranian-made suicide drones, including those operated by Iran and its proxies targeting oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, causing significant damage in sometimes-complex raids. The vulnerability of infrastructure, in particular, to these sorts of ‘low-end’ drone attacks is a topic we have explored in the past. Such attacks have also been prosecuted by a combination of suicide drones as well as ballistic and/or cruise missiles, making defense against them even more problematic.
Even used on their own, these kinds of drones are by no means straightforward to counter using traditional air defenses and, in all, they can have a destructive effect that’s entirely at odds with their relatively low cost of procurement.
As a means of prosecuting long-range attacks, Iranian armed drones would be much cheaper than using cruise or ballistic missiles. Furthermore, Russia’s capacity to produce such weapons in the face of sanctions is also questionable. While the Iranian-made suicide drones would lack the sophistication and reduced radar cross-section of the latest Russian cruise missiles, they would be highly suitable for the same kinds of pinpoint attacks on infrastructure. Their range would also mean they could be used against targets in western Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv. Even using them indiscriminately as a sort of 'vengeance weapon' on the capital is a real possibility.
There is also the possibility that Russian could exploit Iranian expertise to prosecute different kinds of drone strikes, including against maritime targets if the need arises, for example, if the conflict expands into the strategically vital Black Sea. Tehran has much experience in this area, having attacked, or coordinated attacks, on commercial shipping on a number of occasions in the past. In August last year, for example, U.S. Central Command released details of a fatal drone attack on a Liberian-flagged, Israeli-operated tanker, M/T Mercer Street, off the coast of Oman. Iran was blamed for that incident, which involved three strikes carried out by “one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicles,” better known as suicide drones.
Other Iranian drones have been developed specifically to seek and destroy air defenses, in the same kind of role that was first pioneered by the Israeli-developed Harpy drone. This could be of particular relevance to Russia as it seeks to further degrade the Ukrainian air defense network, especially as new kinds of surface-to-air missiles begin to threaten Russian aircraft.
Degrading Ukraine's air defenses via anti-radiation seeker-equipped drones could help open up the airspace in the western part of the country for attacks by traditional manned assets.
With all this in mind, it is clear that acquiring Iranian armed UAVs, especially suicide drone types, in such large numbers, could be very attractive for Russia. Indeed, according to Iranian reports, Russian interest in buying its drones — or perhaps licence-producing them — dates back to 2019, at least a year before the UN arms embargo on Iran was lifted.
Then there is the issue of what Tehran stands to gain from a possible deal of this kind. Securing a hugely valuable new customer — one that is fighting an active all-out war no less — for its arms comes at a time when sanctions have taken their toll and cash infusions are much needed. It would also send a powerful signal of its support to the Moscow regime, which has found itself more or less an international pariah since invading Ukraine in February this year. Tehran has already said it blames NATO expansion in Eastern Europe for triggering the war in Ukraine.
As to getting Iranian drones to Russia, that would likely make use of an already established pattern of cargo flights between the two countries. According to data gathered by aircraft tracker and satellite image analyst Gerjon, in the first three months following the invasion of Ukraine, at least 23 Iranian cargo flights flew from Iran to Moscow. Exactly what these aircraft were transporting remains unclear, but all seem to have landed in Moscow and were flown by airlines that have been understood to have transported arms to other countries in the past. In particular, some of the same aircraft and airlines were noted flying to Ethiopia immediately before Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drones appeared in that country.
There is also the option of delivering weapons by sea. According to a report yesterday from the semi-official Mehr News, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) is shipping 300 “special containers” containing undisclosed goods to Russia. The same statement noted that, if demand increases, the number of containers can also grow.
However they are supplied, getting drones into Russian hands quickly could be of great value. The Iranian drone portfolio, by and large, is heavily focused on systems that smaller militaries or even non-state actors can be trained to use quickly. On the whole, they also require minimal logistics, which would be another boon for Russia and its much-publicized logistics issues.
If Russian does indeed get its hands on large quantities of Iranian drones, it could mark a significant shift in the war in Ukraine, with Tehran’s entry into the arena as a potentially significant political player. At the same time, should Russia start deploying Iranian-made suicide drones, as seems entirely possible, it will further reinforce the fact that we are very much entering a new age of warfare, in which standoff strikes by one-way drones are an increasingly common — and challenging — dynamic.
Russia getting hundreds of drones from Iran could help backfill for depleted missile stocks and wreak havoc in the western part of Ukraine.
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