Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
The US and the EU recently stated that they have started preparations to end their sanctions on Iran. Three months after signing the Iranian nuclear deal, it has finally moved into the implementation phase. Although both the US and Europe promised to implement this policy in the future, not now, still, it is without doubt good news for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
It will help conservative camp, represented by Rouhani, in Iran's domestic political struggle, and will provide necessary external support for the Rouhani government to further promote the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue. In turn, a consolidated Rouhani administration will help safeguard the country's nuclear achievements and solve unsettled nuclear problems.
The future lifting of sanctions will come with immediate effects on the Iranian economy, from unfreezing assets to the recovery of Iran's access to international settlement, which will activate its frozen foreign exchange and benefit the country's foreign trade and international clearance.
In addition, the possible suspension of oil embargoes will help boost Iran's oil exports, increase Iran's revenues. All these will alleviate the country's knotty problems, including currency devaluation and inflation, brought by the sanctions and the drop in oil prices.
Previously, the biggest concern about maintaining economic ties with Iran used to be a possible war if the tensions between the country and the West were aggravated by the nuclear issue. Yet now, the deal has been signed and all goes well, the economic sanctions against Iran are bound to be lifted, which will eliminate the hidden danger and uncertainties of investment in the country. In the next few years, Iran will be highly likely to experience large-scale economic and trade investment.
But we should note some possible problems. The sanctions will not be lifted now, but at some point in the future. In terms of the time, opinions from Washington and Tehran differ. Iran hopes the day will come as soon as possible, yet the US is acting prudently, insisting on not going too fast.
The lifting of sanctions also has limitations. The US and Europe have announced a possible lifting of the sanctions, but the overall sanctions against Iran by the international community take diverse forms, including the UN-led multilateral sanctions and the unilateral sanctions from the US and Europe. The latter alone is a complex mix that includes energy embargo, freezing of assets, financial sanctions and the SWIFT banking ban on Iran.
Germany claimed that sanctions against the nation will likely remain in place until January at least, while the US will only lift a small part of its sanctions.
It's noticeable that their lifting is in exchange for Iran's commitment of abiding by the rules in solving its nuclear issue. Iran's promises include reducing the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges, turning the current stockpile to low-enriched uranium, demilitarization of the Arak heavy-water production plant, and so forth. Apart from that, there are other possible disputes, such as unrestricted access to the Parchin military base, and the relationship between the Iranian military and the nuclear issue.
Whether the punishments will be ended depends directly on Iran's actions on the nuclear issue. Obviously, as the inspection and supervision over the Iranian nuclear issue go deeper, divergences and conflicts between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran, and between Iran and the international community, may escalate.
All that will have a direct bearing on whether Iran's nuclear issue will be eventually resolved, and whether the international community, especially the US and Europe, will further lift their sanctions against Iran.
The lifting of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran is only the beginning of a long story. What will happen next will depend on each side's actions, and time.
The author is an associate professor of the Institute of International Relations at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. [email protected]
Iran shifts offer hopeful future, but complicated to implement in practice - Global Times
