Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

[Rafi]

And neither it is full, or even filling. Your bias prevents you from seeing that, as your posts here show, time and again.

Overall, Pakistani economy is a huge mess, heading from bad to worse, and its social developments indicators are abysmal, and falling.

That is the truth, no matter how you try to whitewash it.

LoL only doom and gloom and hateful stories are acceptable for mr cheng. A true hater - well done mr cheng.

 

[Rafi]

I can also confirm anecdotally that the economy is picking up, just by counting the flat screen tv's, new fridges and micro-wave ovens being purchased in the middle class and lower middle class households, also purchase of new farm equipment points to the rise of the rural rupee.

 

[CZAR]

Mr. Haq. The bull that ONE analyst sees is restricted to liquidity based surge in inflows. The inflows that he is referring to are with respect to FIIs. FII inflows are widely accepted as volatile and unreliable and fickle. A better indicator of buoyancy in the local economy - FDI - paints a grim picture and is not in tune with your rosy outlook.

Simply put - you are either wrong or lying!!

 

[notorious_eagle]

Hows does that mean that the outlook for Pakistan is "bullish"? The outlook for Pakistan is abysmal!

I am just talking on a personal level since i am in the market, people are minting money here. I don't have to say anything; the sheer number of land cruisers, rang rovers, bmw's, mercedes etc speak for themselves. There is almost a 4 month wait to get a new Honda Civic, almost 1 month for Corolla. Anyways, thats just my personal observation as i have not been following the economy on paper for a long time. But i am not going to law, the political and law order situation indeed looks abysmal.

 

[VCheng]

I am just talking on a personal level since i am in the market, people are minting money here. I don't have to say anything; the sheer number of land cruisers, rang rovers, bmw's, mercedes etc speak for themselves. There is almost a 4 month wait to get a new Honda Civic, almost 1 month for Corolla. Anyways, thats just my personal observation as i have not been following the economy on paper for a long time. But i am not going to law, the political and law order situation indeed looks abysmal.

I do appreciate your point of view, and your anecdotal experiences indicating good middle class consumption. However, the economic indicators are quite bad, just as bad as the terrible law and order situation and a military/political system totally incapable of dealing with the nation's issues.

 

[surya kiran]

I am just talking on a personal level since i am in the market, people are minting money here. I don't have to say anything; the sheer number of land cruisers, rang rovers, bmw's, mercedes etc speak for themselves. There is almost a 4 month wait to get a new Honda Civic, almost 1 month for Corolla. Anyways, thats just my personal observation as i have not been following the economy on paper for a long time. But i am not going to law, the political and law order situation indeed looks abysmal.

Ne, if you are talking about the markets, then am sure you are aware that people make money whether its going up or going down. Depends on which way you are trading. But, making money on the market need not translate to economic development, right?

 

[RiazHaq]

And neither it is full, or even filling. Your bias prevents you from seeing that, as your posts here show, time and again.

Overall, Pakistani economy is a huge mess, heading from bad to worse, and its social developments indicators are abysmal, and falling.

That is the truth, no matter how you try to whitewash it.

=============================

You neglected to mention these two interesting charts about the future trends in the growth of the middle class in Asia, from your own source:

from: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/KI/2010/Special-Chapter-02.pdf
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India's middle class is projected to increase about 40% for the $2 and $4 standards, whereas the figures for Pakistan are about 30%, and yet you claim that somehow Pakistan's middle class will do better because of the past two decades.

Cherry pick not, for it is the death of science.

I do agree somewhat with the "upward mobility in a nation is the best indication of its economic, social and educational opportunity and dynamism" though, although you identify the wrong country intentionally.

Pakistan is starting with a bigger base of middle class than India. Pakistan, with 40% of its pop in middle class now, is well ahead of India's 25%, according to ADB.

As to the future, these are just projections, not reality.

You may want to bet against Pakistan, but I won't.

Reality is that Pakistan has continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future.

Historic data tells Pakistanis are very resilient in the face of adversity, and that' the secret of them being much more upwardly mobile than Indians.

Haq's Musings: Upwardly Mobile Pakistan on 66th Independence Day

Here's an ET report on KSE-100 hitting a new high today:

KARACHI:

As investors shrugged off lethargy from the long Eidul Azha weekend, the stock market rebounded amid greater investor participation to close at a new historic high.

“With renewed buying interest from institutional clients and foreign fund managers, the market closed at yet another historic high,” said Topline Securities equity dealer Samar Iqbal. “Investors anticipate lower inflation figures for the month of October, due [to be announced] tomorrow. Bullish sentiments were further augmented after better-than-expected result announcements from Pakistan Petroleum and the Hub Power Company.”

The Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) benchmark 100-share index gained 0.72% or 114.18 points to end at the 15,910.11 points level. Trade volumes surged to 136 million shares compared with Tuesday’s tally of 85 million shares. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs4.96 billion.

“Pakistan stocks closed at their highest-ever, led by oil and cement stocks, as global commodities and stocks rally in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy,” commented Arif Habib Corp analyst Ahsan Mehanti. He also attributed the market’s optimism to the positive current account balance for the first quarter of the fiscal year, and speculation that the State Bank might announce yet another cut in its policy rate next month.

“Major activity was again seen in the cement sector with DG Khan Cement and Lucky Cement gaining 2.0% and 3.1% respectively,” reported JS Global analyst Shakir Padela. “This is likely on the back of October cement dispatch numbers due to be announced in the coming days.”

DG Khan Cement was the volume leader with 14.98 million shares gaining Rs1.04 to finish at Rs52.91. It was followed by Azgard Nine with 9.00 million shares gaining Rs0.46 to close at Rs6.97 and Askari Bank with 7.73 million shares losing Rs0.07 to close at Rs16.57.

“The Oil and Gas Development Company also managed to close the day up by 2.2% on the back of foreign buying in the script,” added Padela.

Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Rs264.33 million, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/459038/market-watch-cement-oil-stocks-take-kse-to-historic-high/

 

[RiazHaq]

Mr. Haq. The bull that ONE analyst sees is restricted to liquidity based surge in inflows. The inflows that he is referring to are with respect to FIIs. FII inflows are widely accepted as volatile and unreliable and fickle. A better indicator of buoyancy in the local economy - FDI - paints a grim picture and is not in tune with your rosy outlook.

Simply put - you are either wrong or lying!!

I believe the analyst is talking about a combination:

1) the central bank further easing money supply through interest rate cuts as inflation eases and

2) new margin trading rules applying to stock purchases of more KSE listed companies and

3) foreign buying.

As to the FDI, yes it's down but it is not the only means of inflows and investment in Pakistan.

 

[darkinsky]

LoL only doom and gloom and hateful stories are acceptable for mr cheng. A true hater - well done mr cheng.

what ever agenda mr vcheng has, lets not debate it, lets debate his arguement here

 

[VCheng]

Pakistan is starting with a bigger base of middle class than India. Pakistan, with 40% of its pop in middle class now, is well ahead of India's 25%, according to ADB.

As to the future, these are just projections, not reality.

You may want to bet against Pakistan, but I won't.

Reality is that Pakistan has continued to offer much greater upward economic and social mobility to its citizens than neighboring India over the last two decades. Since 1990, Pakistan's middle class had expanded by 36.5% and India's by only 12.8%, according to an ADB report titled "Asia's Emerging Middle Class: Past, Present And Future.

Historic data tells Pakistanis are very resilient in the face of adversity, and that' the secret of them being much more upwardly mobile than Indians.
..............

Some fair points, so let's see how long Pakistanis can continue to triumph over ever-increasing levels of adversity. Somethin's gotta give, soon enough.

 

[RiazHaq]

Here's an LA Times story on plans for Zulfikarabad:

SHAH BANDAR, Pakistan — In his dreams, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari sees a spectacular metropolis rising up from the vast stretches of mangrove swamp and sea-salted wasteland along the mighty Indus River Delta.

High-speed rail zips people from place to place. Vacationers soak up the South Asian sun at seaside resorts. Universities, factories and a new seaport pump vitality into the region. Miles of bike lanes crisscross the city, whose population would eventually reach 10 million.

Zardari wants to call his jewel Zulfikarabad, after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the founder of the country's ruling party, a prime minister and president, and the father of Zardari's slain wife, former premier Benazir Bhutto.

That's a lot of dreaming for a country struggling with a dizzying array of afflictions: Millions of Pakistanis are dirt poor, struggling to find clean water, contending with unreliable electricity and living in fear of violent extremists. In addition, the president has continued jousting with Pakistan's Supreme Court over long-standing graft allegations lodged years ago by Swiss authorities.

Such realities have put Zardari's popularity in a tailspin.

Many observers suspect that the president's enthusiasm for Zulfikarabad may be rooted in a burning desire to leave a legacy for this country of 180 million people. He's seeking an enduring achievement, they say, by an administration widely viewed as rife with failure.

Government officials won't place a price tag on the president's lofty vision, which is bound to cost tens of millions of dollars. They say only that the government's share would be limited to the construction of roads, bridges and other infrastructure, with the rest shouldered by investors.

Officials also say they consider the proposed city a desperately needed engine for jobs and economic growth.

Karachi, the country's largest city with a population of 18 million, is bloated with overcrowding and traffic jams, and needs a nearby city that can serve as a relief valve, they say.

"Karachi is getting choked," said Iftikhar Hussain Shah, managing director of the Zulfikarabad Development Authority. "It's going to suffer paralysis because there's no more room. So the people who are trying to look for setting up industries, they are looking for space.
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On a recent afternoon in Shah Bandar, a fishing village not far from where ground was broken this summer for a $39-million Zulfikarabad bridge, a group of sweat-soaked fishermen thumbed through a brochure promoting the city. They weren't too ruffled because they remembered a similar idea laid out by Bhutto's administration years ago to turn a nearby fishing hamlet, Keti Bandar, into a major sea port.

"Bhutto said it would happen," said Wali Mohammed, a 30-year-old Shah Bandar fisherman, "but years passed and nothing was built."

Pakistan's leader mangrove-to-metropolis dream - latimes.com

 

[VCheng]

Riaz Sahib, idher bhi dheyaan dey lein barrahe meherbaani:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...worst-economy-asia-pacific-region-report.html

 

[A.Rafay]

Here's an LA Times story on plans for Zulfikarabad:

SHAH BANDAR, Pakistan — In his dreams, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari sees a spectacular metropolis rising up from the vast stretches of mangrove swamp and sea-salted wasteland along the mighty Indus River Delta.

High-speed rail zips people from place to place. Vacationers soak up the South Asian sun at seaside resorts. Universities, factories and a new seaport pump vitality into the region. Miles of bike lanes crisscross the city, whose population would eventually reach 10 million.

Zardari wants to call his jewel Zulfikarabad, after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the founder of the country's ruling party, a prime minister and president, and the father of Zardari's slain wife, former premier Benazir Bhutto.

That's a lot of dreaming for a country struggling with a dizzying array of afflictions: Millions of Pakistanis are dirt poor, struggling to find clean water, contending with unreliable electricity and living in fear of violent extremists. In addition, the president has continued jousting with Pakistan's Supreme Court over long-standing graft allegations lodged years ago by Swiss authorities.

Such realities have put Zardari's popularity in a tailspin.

Many observers suspect that the president's enthusiasm for Zulfikarabad may be rooted in a burning desire to leave a legacy for this country of 180 million people. He's seeking an enduring achievement, they say, by an administration widely viewed as rife with failure.

Government officials won't place a price tag on the president's lofty vision, which is bound to cost tens of millions of dollars. They say only that the government's share would be limited to the construction of roads, bridges and other infrastructure, with the rest shouldered by investors.

Officials also say they consider the proposed city a desperately needed engine for jobs and economic growth.

Karachi, the country's largest city with a population of 18 million, is bloated with overcrowding and traffic jams, and needs a nearby city that can serve as a relief valve, they say.

"Karachi is getting choked," said Iftikhar Hussain Shah, managing director of the Zulfikarabad Development Authority. "It's going to suffer paralysis because there's no more room. So the people who are trying to look for setting up industries, they are looking for space.
----------
On a recent afternoon in Shah Bandar, a fishing village not far from where ground was broken this summer for a $39-million Zulfikarabad bridge, a group of sweat-soaked fishermen thumbed through a brochure promoting the city. They weren't too ruffled because they remembered a similar idea laid out by Bhutto's administration years ago to turn a nearby fishing hamlet, Keti Bandar, into a major sea port.

"Bhutto said it would happen," said Wali Mohammed, a 30-year-old Shah Bandar fisherman, "but years passed and nothing was built."

Pakistan's leader mangrove-to-metropolis dream - latimes.com

I like this Zulfiqarabad Project a new planned city for Sindh Province of Pakistan Would be great for poor people of Pakistan, Gwadar is also good sea port city but lacks population, But zulfiqarabad near Karachi will be a major Attraction of people of karachi as well as sindh, New highway is visible undercounstruction on google earth going to zulfirabad.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Portfolio + Foreign direct investment are at low levels since the security situation deteriorated in parts of the country post 2007/08

that coupled by ups and downs in the foreign exchange reserves are among quite a few things that have thwarted investors

despite the would haves, could haves and should haves -- Pakistan has been incredibly resilient. Our exposure to the Global Recession was limited for this very reason -- that renewed FDI in Pakistan was on decline (not to say it didnt affect us)


Pakistan is best served by a comprehensive anti-corruption witch-hunt; increasing the tax collection base (even though we love to rag and hate on PPP government -- at least they can be credited with increasing the collection base somewhat --though MUCH more needs to be done)


Pakistan's young and reasonably large population is to its advantage. The real drivers of growth are SMEs (small-medium businesses) and an increasing middle class. That is what we must focus on.


if you tackle the corruption, improve security and law&order, remove red-tape and make it ever easier to do business in Pakistan (Standard & Poors, Fitch and World Bank analyze these trends) then Pakistan is ripe for investment and can be a very profitable place to do business



i tend to view things in a less convoluted form; these "analysts" and "speculators" are sometimes too linear in their thinking




p.s. oh and how could i forget ---- un-interrupted electricity supply......"DUHHH"

 

[RiazHaq]

Riaz Sahib, idher bhi dheyaan dey lein barrahe meherbaani:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...worst-economy-asia-pacific-region-report.html

I don't put much credence in indices and rankings like Legatum simply because it ignores basic measures like per capita income, life expectancy, size of middle class, upward mobility, level of urbanization, educational achievement, per capita consumption of energy, cement, food, retail sales, etc. that say far more about a nation's economy than Legatum's subjective criteria.

A much better measure can be found in Hans Rosling's compilation of a bunch of economic and social indicators at gapminder.org

Gapminder: Unveiling the beauty of statistics for a fact based world view. - Gapminder.org

The Gapminder animations of health and wealth idicators show that life expectancy in Pakistan has jumped from 32 years in 1947 to 67 years in 2009, and per Capita inflation-adjusted PPP income has risen from $766 in 1948 to $2603 in 2009.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Story After 64 Years of Independence

http://www.riazhaq.com/2012/08/upwardly-mobile-pakistan-on-66th.html