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Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Intercepting the Taliban
Baitullah Mahsud has again gone quiet. It happens whenever he becomes the target of a military operation by Pakistans armed forces or the US drones. He stops chattering on his satellite phone and walkie-talkie and is often unavailable to even his commanders. His code name, Nasrat, is no longer heard on the airwaves.
We are told the intelligence agencies, or those assigned to eavesdrop on anyone suspicious, could hear him loud and clear until a few weeks ago. He was even giving commands to his fighters during a recent battle against Pakistan Army troops in South Waziristan. That was the last time they heard his by now familiar voice.
The military authorities would love to get back Baitullah Mehsud`s voice on their listening machines. The signalmen are waiting to hear the code name Nasrat again. This could possibly provide them clues about him and understand his mind. An unguarded sentence by him or his associates could provide the military an idea about his whereabouts. The army could better understand his plans by intercepting his conversations with Taliban commanders. Even if its in bits and pieces, such information helps in filling the gaps with regard to the intelligence available on the head of the Tehrik-e-Tliban Pakistan (TTP).
Intercepts are a good source of information on the militants. The military finds the intercepted communication quite useful in knowing about the morale of the Pakistani Taliban and their jihadi allies, their battlefield losses and their plans. The almost daily claims made by the army spokesmen about the losses inflicted on the militants are sometimes based on the intercepts of communication between the Taliban fighters. Though the information made available to an obliging media is one-sided and difficult to believe in view of the tall claims of success, it is still useful to understand the way the battle is proceeding in places like Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand and South Waziristan.
It is not the military alone that can monitor the militants` communication. The Taliban too are sometimes able to listen in to the communication lines of their rivals. They too make claims about their battleground achievements by insisting that the information was partly obtained by listening to the intercepted communication between military officials. No doubt that the claims the militants make are exaggerated but they do try to copy the tactics used by the army authorities.
Knowing pretty well that their communication is being intercepted, would the militants continue to give away their secrets by talking unguardedly on their satellite, mobile and other phones? Wont they try to misguide their foe by relaying wrong information? This is something normal as deception is considered a legitimate tactic in war. The militants do have their code words but some of the codes have been used so often they these are no longer a secret. Nasrat, which means victory, is a codeword for Baitullah Mahsud and he has not bothered to change it and get a new one to avoid detection. In fact, during the Afghan war against the Soviet occupying forces, Nasrat was a favourite codename for a number of mujahideen leaders and commanders. The Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistanis, have continued the practice because they believe the word is a constant source of inspiration for their fighters.
The recent military claim about injuries sustained by the Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah too was based on intercepted communication between the militants. But there has been no further communication that could provide clues about his fate. The same holds true for his deputy Maulana Shah Dauran as reports of his death in a military operation need to be confirmed, possibly through some new intercepts. The intercepts despite their utility are, therefore, unable to tell the whole story. The intercepted communication will thus provide as much information as is intended by the users.
While still on the subject of the Taliban in Swat, their spokesman Muslim Khan used to talk on his mobile phone with journalists for hours. Using his two cell phones, he gave interviews in Pashto, Urdu and even English that he learnt while serving for four years in the US, negotiated with government officials, sympathetic politicians and supportive clerics, and passed on messages to fellow Taliban in Swat and beyond as some sort of a contact person. The government made no effort to block his mobile phones as his conversations provided it with useful information on him and his group.
The controversial claim by President General Pervez Musharraf`s government about Baitullah Mehsud`s involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was also based on the intercepted communication between him and one of his trusted aides. Baitullah Mahsud is heard talking in Pashto and asking the man about the success of the mission. Intriguingly, Baitullah Mahsud doesnt know the names of the attackers and is heard asking whether they were their men. Nowhere is Benazir Bhuttos name mentioned in the conversation. All this generated controversy and things were further compounded when the PPP and Benazir Bhuttos family expressed doubts about the veracity of the Musharraf regimes claim that Baitullah Mahsud was involved in the conspiracy to eliminate the two-time prime minister of Pakistan.
As many wanted Al Qaeda and Taliban figures have been killed or captured after being tracked down through their satellite phones, the militants have either stopped using these communication gadgets or become cautious and selective in their use. It seems Osama bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda figures no longer use their satellite phones and faxes. Afghan Taliban leader Mulla Mohammad Omar too appears to have given up the use of the satellite and mobile phone. This is the major reason of their staying alive and remaining free eight years after the US invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban regime in late 2001. They are obviously using more traditional means of communication such as couriers, hand-written letters and audio-tapes.
One is reminded of the story of Nek Mohammad, the first Pakistani Taliban commander who became well-known when he forced the Pakistan Army to sign a peace accord with him in April 2004 in South Waziristan. After gaining instant fame, the young tribesman in his 20s took a liking for the satellite phone. He would talk with reporters for long durations and pester them with requests to be interviewed. Finally, the Americans got him in a village near Wana, tracking his satellite phone when he was talking with a reporter and firing a laser-guided missile from a US drone at the compound where he was staying.
Now that the militants are making selective and clever use of the modern means of communication, it will become increasingly difficult for the armies and their intelligence agencies in Pakistan, Afghanistan and other theatres of war to track them down. Intercepts too could become few and far between or there would be greater recourse to deception to mislead the enemy. Still the intercepts would continue to remain a useful tool in collecting information and updating intelligence on ones foe. There perhaps is no substitute for good old human intelligence. But modern technology and its clever use combined with human intelligence could achieve far better results than those presently being obtained through one source alone. Then one will not have to wait for Baitullah Mahsud or the likes to come back on the line and start using satellite phone again to become traceable.
The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar. Email: rahimyusufzai@ yahoo.com
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Intercepting the Taliban
Baitullah Mahsud has again gone quiet. It happens whenever he becomes the target of a military operation by Pakistans armed forces or the US drones. He stops chattering on his satellite phone and walkie-talkie and is often unavailable to even his commanders. His code name, Nasrat, is no longer heard on the airwaves.
We are told the intelligence agencies, or those assigned to eavesdrop on anyone suspicious, could hear him loud and clear until a few weeks ago. He was even giving commands to his fighters during a recent battle against Pakistan Army troops in South Waziristan. That was the last time they heard his by now familiar voice.
The military authorities would love to get back Baitullah Mehsud`s voice on their listening machines. The signalmen are waiting to hear the code name Nasrat again. This could possibly provide them clues about him and understand his mind. An unguarded sentence by him or his associates could provide the military an idea about his whereabouts. The army could better understand his plans by intercepting his conversations with Taliban commanders. Even if its in bits and pieces, such information helps in filling the gaps with regard to the intelligence available on the head of the Tehrik-e-Tliban Pakistan (TTP).
Intercepts are a good source of information on the militants. The military finds the intercepted communication quite useful in knowing about the morale of the Pakistani Taliban and their jihadi allies, their battlefield losses and their plans. The almost daily claims made by the army spokesmen about the losses inflicted on the militants are sometimes based on the intercepts of communication between the Taliban fighters. Though the information made available to an obliging media is one-sided and difficult to believe in view of the tall claims of success, it is still useful to understand the way the battle is proceeding in places like Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand and South Waziristan.
It is not the military alone that can monitor the militants` communication. The Taliban too are sometimes able to listen in to the communication lines of their rivals. They too make claims about their battleground achievements by insisting that the information was partly obtained by listening to the intercepted communication between military officials. No doubt that the claims the militants make are exaggerated but they do try to copy the tactics used by the army authorities.
Knowing pretty well that their communication is being intercepted, would the militants continue to give away their secrets by talking unguardedly on their satellite, mobile and other phones? Wont they try to misguide their foe by relaying wrong information? This is something normal as deception is considered a legitimate tactic in war. The militants do have their code words but some of the codes have been used so often they these are no longer a secret. Nasrat, which means victory, is a codeword for Baitullah Mahsud and he has not bothered to change it and get a new one to avoid detection. In fact, during the Afghan war against the Soviet occupying forces, Nasrat was a favourite codename for a number of mujahideen leaders and commanders. The Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistanis, have continued the practice because they believe the word is a constant source of inspiration for their fighters.
The recent military claim about injuries sustained by the Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah too was based on intercepted communication between the militants. But there has been no further communication that could provide clues about his fate. The same holds true for his deputy Maulana Shah Dauran as reports of his death in a military operation need to be confirmed, possibly through some new intercepts. The intercepts despite their utility are, therefore, unable to tell the whole story. The intercepted communication will thus provide as much information as is intended by the users.
While still on the subject of the Taliban in Swat, their spokesman Muslim Khan used to talk on his mobile phone with journalists for hours. Using his two cell phones, he gave interviews in Pashto, Urdu and even English that he learnt while serving for four years in the US, negotiated with government officials, sympathetic politicians and supportive clerics, and passed on messages to fellow Taliban in Swat and beyond as some sort of a contact person. The government made no effort to block his mobile phones as his conversations provided it with useful information on him and his group.
The controversial claim by President General Pervez Musharraf`s government about Baitullah Mehsud`s involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was also based on the intercepted communication between him and one of his trusted aides. Baitullah Mahsud is heard talking in Pashto and asking the man about the success of the mission. Intriguingly, Baitullah Mahsud doesnt know the names of the attackers and is heard asking whether they were their men. Nowhere is Benazir Bhuttos name mentioned in the conversation. All this generated controversy and things were further compounded when the PPP and Benazir Bhuttos family expressed doubts about the veracity of the Musharraf regimes claim that Baitullah Mahsud was involved in the conspiracy to eliminate the two-time prime minister of Pakistan.
As many wanted Al Qaeda and Taliban figures have been killed or captured after being tracked down through their satellite phones, the militants have either stopped using these communication gadgets or become cautious and selective in their use. It seems Osama bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda figures no longer use their satellite phones and faxes. Afghan Taliban leader Mulla Mohammad Omar too appears to have given up the use of the satellite and mobile phone. This is the major reason of their staying alive and remaining free eight years after the US invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Taliban regime in late 2001. They are obviously using more traditional means of communication such as couriers, hand-written letters and audio-tapes.
One is reminded of the story of Nek Mohammad, the first Pakistani Taliban commander who became well-known when he forced the Pakistan Army to sign a peace accord with him in April 2004 in South Waziristan. After gaining instant fame, the young tribesman in his 20s took a liking for the satellite phone. He would talk with reporters for long durations and pester them with requests to be interviewed. Finally, the Americans got him in a village near Wana, tracking his satellite phone when he was talking with a reporter and firing a laser-guided missile from a US drone at the compound where he was staying.
Now that the militants are making selective and clever use of the modern means of communication, it will become increasingly difficult for the armies and their intelligence agencies in Pakistan, Afghanistan and other theatres of war to track them down. Intercepts too could become few and far between or there would be greater recourse to deception to mislead the enemy. Still the intercepts would continue to remain a useful tool in collecting information and updating intelligence on ones foe. There perhaps is no substitute for good old human intelligence. But modern technology and its clever use combined with human intelligence could achieve far better results than those presently being obtained through one source alone. Then one will not have to wait for Baitullah Mahsud or the likes to come back on the line and start using satellite phone again to become traceable.
The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar. Email: rahimyusufzai@ yahoo.com
