Kansel
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Sigh, guess I'm getting another products then
Indonesia Economy Forum
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nufix
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Trying to achieve stable economy by sacrificing growth potentials (no major infra projects or economic initiatives) will only get you a temporary stability. This was apparent towards the end of SBY's second terms where neighboring countries stepped up their FDI games. True, the economy was kept relative stable with USD to IDR around 8k to 9k due to relatively lower account deficits and debt , but no major investments were done as well by the government because that might require the country to go into account deficits. Therefore, our true underlying issues that clogs our long term economic growth were never really addressed during SBY's terms: Distribution costs and organic growth from domestic consumption.
I personally believe that the true economic stability is resulted from a constant growth. Take growth away, you will have problems with stability. Corona is a crisis that is not financial in nature, but it could get financial. Indonesia is projected to be least impacted by Covid19 compared to many ASEAN countries, I think partly because we pursued growth oriented economic policies in the last 5 years so there is some domestic consumption left to support the economy so that it could tank the impact of the crisis.
trishna_amṛta
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If you intent to use the phone for 5 years or longer (which is my practice) get something that has wide selection of after market parts & accessories. I've made a mistake by favoring Sony (Xperia X10mini & Zperia Z3) before, and as it turn out there isn't any after market parts available for it, by the time their battery reach their end of life I've end up with brick phones. And now I intend to buy Xiomi, mostly due their price (value for money) and wide availability of after market spare part particularly battery. I do however need to "sacrifice" so many functionality that typically available in Sony phone
Logam42
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To add to this discussion.
The economic legacy of SBY is actually rather good, but he simply failed to invest in infrastructure due to putting waaaaay too much money into energy subsidies which provided economic stability, but no long term growth boost.
If you look at historical government budget balance, even SBY ran a budget deficit during his entire presidency. Difference is that during Jokowi era, more money is put into growth generation spending, such as infrastructure and healthcare, don't forget, BPJS for all its faults has greatly improved access of lower class to healthcare, especially the BPJS ketenagakerjaan which see's none of the budgetary problems the BPJS kesehatan struggles with.
Jokowi is arguably more aggressive in using government budget deficit but even during his time he follows Sri Mulyani and BI advice to make sure that our economy grows in sustainable manner and not "overheat", very important since we rely on so much foreign hot money.
A great part of our Financial System resilience stems from the clear and consistent regulator policy of "crisis proofing" our financial systems. In this case, not only BI is to be praised, but also OJK (Wimboh Santoso, basically). Even during Jokowi infrastructure push, OJK singlemindedly persisted on following the "resilience" playbook for the Banking Sector: Liquidity, Loan Quality, and Capital Adequacy.
I remember watching an Australian Lecture in 2019... note that during that time our GDP growth was seeing a slowdown. The Lecturer complained that instead of adjusting the rules to allow banks to give out more loans, the OJK instead brags that Indonesian banks are swimming in liquidity.
In 2008, it was the SMEs and consumers that cushioned our economy when the financial sector strained. Jopefully this time the Financial System will return the favor by staying healthy enough to spearhead recovery once a vaccine is finally widely administered.
Indos
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COVID-19: Health minister issues ‘new normal’ guidelines for workplaces
Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto has issued new health protocols for workplaces to usher in the so-called “new normal” even as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to rise.
In a ministerial decree issued on Saturday, Terawan detailed how offices and manufacturers should operate during the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB).
Government Regulation (PP) No. 21/2020 requires all workplaces, except those in essential sectors, to be temporarily shut down in areas enacting the PSBB.
"However, it's impossible to impose restrictions on workplaces forever. We should keep the wheels of our economy running," Terawan said in a statement on the Health Ministry’s official website. “That’s why workplaces must prepare to adapt to changes amid the COVID-19 situation, also known as the new normal.”
The ministerial decree requires company management to create task forces to curb the spread of the disease. They should also ensure cleanliness and hygiene at the workplace and increase the number of hand-washing facilities.
The decree also advises workplaces to do away with late-night shifts or at least only assign such shifts to workers under the age of 50.
Employees are required to maintain a safe physical distance at the workplace and wear masks. Their temperatures should also be checked daily. Companies are also advised to set aside a time for employees to exercise together – while adhering to physical distancing guidelines – before work starts.
"By implementing these guidelines, we hope to minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission at the workplace," Terawan said.
The Health Ministry announced 479 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, bringing the total number of infections nationwide to 22,750 with 1,391 fatalities.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...oil-and-gas-well-despite-weak-oil-prices.html
- Nina A. Loasana
The Jakarta Post
Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto has issued new health protocols for workplaces to usher in the so-called “new normal” even as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to rise.
In a ministerial decree issued on Saturday, Terawan detailed how offices and manufacturers should operate during the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB).
Government Regulation (PP) No. 21/2020 requires all workplaces, except those in essential sectors, to be temporarily shut down in areas enacting the PSBB.
"However, it's impossible to impose restrictions on workplaces forever. We should keep the wheels of our economy running," Terawan said in a statement on the Health Ministry’s official website. “That’s why workplaces must prepare to adapt to changes amid the COVID-19 situation, also known as the new normal.”
The ministerial decree requires company management to create task forces to curb the spread of the disease. They should also ensure cleanliness and hygiene at the workplace and increase the number of hand-washing facilities.
The decree also advises workplaces to do away with late-night shifts or at least only assign such shifts to workers under the age of 50.
Employees are required to maintain a safe physical distance at the workplace and wear masks. Their temperatures should also be checked daily. Companies are also advised to set aside a time for employees to exercise together – while adhering to physical distancing guidelines – before work starts.
"By implementing these guidelines, we hope to minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission at the workplace," Terawan said.
The Health Ministry announced 479 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, bringing the total number of infections nationwide to 22,750 with 1,391 fatalities.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...oil-and-gas-well-despite-weak-oil-prices.html
Indos
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On 1 June, Indonesia's lock down will be eased and people can start working, shop reopening, and so on. Infection rate will likely to surge but government doesnt seem to have any other option rather than start reopening the economy. Something that need to be prepared is the covid 19 treatment capacity that must be increased to cope with this "new normal". Medical staff will have to continue working in a dangerous situation and possibly add their work shift. Government should disburse proper monetary incentive to medical staff who are dealing with Covid 19 patients.
With this reopening, Government look like avoiding disbursing huge economic incentive to ease the lock down effect on the economy. As Indonesia economy is more domestic consumption driven economy, so the coronavirus outbreak economic effect will likely to be much more minimal compared to export driven economy in the region like Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.
As other economy like USA, Europe, China, and others are reopening their economy as well, so there is hope that oil price will go up that later help increase other commodity prices. Indonesia export still rely on commodity so the increase of the price will improve our overall export performance that will later affect our trade balance. This somehow will strengthen our Rupiah and give more hope to our ability in curbing the economic crisis effect in the financial sector.
Despite more positive outlook that we can get from reopening the economy, there is still uncertainty haunting us in term of the outcome of the economy reopening in our health sector. More infection and death will likely to happen. I hope we can still curb the infection and death rate with this new normal by implementing social distancing measure. What is truly happening here is that government is buying time until effective drug and vaccine can be available while keep opening the economy to help the vulnerable group survive under this outbreak.
Just like happening in many countries, we are failed to contain the disease and forced to reopen the economy because there is no other option left. I hope people keep being discipline in undergoing this "new normal" so that new infection and death number can still be maintained in a mild rate. School, I hope, will still be closed until effective drug is found and wildly available.
With this reopening, Government look like avoiding disbursing huge economic incentive to ease the lock down effect on the economy. As Indonesia economy is more domestic consumption driven economy, so the coronavirus outbreak economic effect will likely to be much more minimal compared to export driven economy in the region like Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.
As other economy like USA, Europe, China, and others are reopening their economy as well, so there is hope that oil price will go up that later help increase other commodity prices. Indonesia export still rely on commodity so the increase of the price will improve our overall export performance that will later affect our trade balance. This somehow will strengthen our Rupiah and give more hope to our ability in curbing the economic crisis effect in the financial sector.
Despite more positive outlook that we can get from reopening the economy, there is still uncertainty haunting us in term of the outcome of the economy reopening in our health sector. More infection and death will likely to happen. I hope we can still curb the infection and death rate with this new normal by implementing social distancing measure. What is truly happening here is that government is buying time until effective drug and vaccine can be available while keep opening the economy to help the vulnerable group survive under this outbreak.
Just like happening in many countries, we are failed to contain the disease and forced to reopen the economy because there is no other option left. I hope people keep being discipline in undergoing this "new normal" so that new infection and death number can still be maintained in a mild rate. School, I hope, will still be closed until effective drug is found and wildly available.
Nike
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I believe, more people will suffer if economy not be opened. The first objective of lockdown is to giving chance for health system to cope with the possibility of increasing risk of outbreak pandemic caused by Covid 19. To adjust the system and rectify what needed to be done.
The windows of opportunity came in January but we are squandered the precious two month for nothing
Nike
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Industry Ministry encourages innovation in preparing for new normal
8 hours ago
Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita. ANTARA/HO-Industry Ministry/am/sh
Through innovation, industry operators can answer various challenges and create competitive products.
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Industry Ministry has encouraged the country's industry sector to boost competitiveness and self-reliance through innovation and get ready for transitioning to the new normal.
"Through innovation, industry operators can face various challenges head on and create competitive products," Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita noted in a statement here on Wednesday.
Kartasasmita remarked that innovation will also lower the country's dependence on imports and bolster the national industry to face the new normal.
The minister cited the example of innovation in the health sector that has become the key to expedite the handling of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
"Before the COVID-19 pandemic, no domestic industry could produce ventilators. However, now, in less than three months, the industry, in cooperation with several universities, has developed (ventilators) and are ready for manufacturing," Kartasasmita pointed out.
The Health Ministry cited the requirement for one thousand units of CPAP (Continuous Positive Airway Pressure) transport ventilator and Ambubag 668.
A team of experts from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), University of Indonesia (UI), Gadjah Mada University (UGM), and Surabaya 10 Nopember Institute of Technology (ITS) has worked in coordination with the Industry Ministry and developed various types of ventilator, including emergency ventilator.
A team from UGM will soon produce the fully featured or high-grade ventilator.
"Their innovation will also help the domestic industry to become self-reliant," he noted.
The ministry’s research is ongoing to create products to support the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the design of a face shield as personal protective equipment (PPE), research and development of non-PCR test kit for virus detection, development of rapid test kit to detect COVID-19 by employing the lateral flow immunoassay method, and development of PPE raw material.
Moreover, the ministry has encouraged the domestic pharmaceutical industry to develop raw materials for medicine.
"For the long term, the Industry Ministry will build cooperation between the research institute and pharmaceutical industry to develop raw material for the COVID-19 drug," the minister explained.
To support the survival of the Small- and Medium-Scale Industry (SME), the ministry has helped SME operators to market their products through digital channel.
Kartasasmita highlighted the importance of the national industry to be ready to face the new normal. The industry can adopt the strategy of digital innovation to maintain productivity and contribute to the national economy while adhering to the health protocol.
"Digital innovation has given the opportunity to face the challenges to reawaken the national industry. We are upbeat about our industry sector recovering faster than other countries. This is the type of optimism that we should build and maintain as a symbol of national awakening," Kartasasmita affirmed.
Related news: Polri-TNI personnel to edify public on COVID-19 health protocols
Related news: 86% SOEs ready to implement 'new normal' protocol
Close
EDITED BY INE
https://en.antaranews.com/news/1494...urages-innovation-in-preparing-for-new-normal
8 hours ago
Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita. ANTARA/HO-Industry Ministry/am/sh
Through innovation, industry operators can answer various challenges and create competitive products.
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Industry Ministry has encouraged the country's industry sector to boost competitiveness and self-reliance through innovation and get ready for transitioning to the new normal.
"Through innovation, industry operators can face various challenges head on and create competitive products," Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita noted in a statement here on Wednesday.
Kartasasmita remarked that innovation will also lower the country's dependence on imports and bolster the national industry to face the new normal.
The minister cited the example of innovation in the health sector that has become the key to expedite the handling of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
"Before the COVID-19 pandemic, no domestic industry could produce ventilators. However, now, in less than three months, the industry, in cooperation with several universities, has developed (ventilators) and are ready for manufacturing," Kartasasmita pointed out.
The Health Ministry cited the requirement for one thousand units of CPAP (Continuous Positive Airway Pressure) transport ventilator and Ambubag 668.
A team of experts from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), University of Indonesia (UI), Gadjah Mada University (UGM), and Surabaya 10 Nopember Institute of Technology (ITS) has worked in coordination with the Industry Ministry and developed various types of ventilator, including emergency ventilator.
A team from UGM will soon produce the fully featured or high-grade ventilator.
"Their innovation will also help the domestic industry to become self-reliant," he noted.
The ministry’s research is ongoing to create products to support the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the design of a face shield as personal protective equipment (PPE), research and development of non-PCR test kit for virus detection, development of rapid test kit to detect COVID-19 by employing the lateral flow immunoassay method, and development of PPE raw material.
Moreover, the ministry has encouraged the domestic pharmaceutical industry to develop raw materials for medicine.
"For the long term, the Industry Ministry will build cooperation between the research institute and pharmaceutical industry to develop raw material for the COVID-19 drug," the minister explained.
To support the survival of the Small- and Medium-Scale Industry (SME), the ministry has helped SME operators to market their products through digital channel.
Kartasasmita highlighted the importance of the national industry to be ready to face the new normal. The industry can adopt the strategy of digital innovation to maintain productivity and contribute to the national economy while adhering to the health protocol.
"Digital innovation has given the opportunity to face the challenges to reawaken the national industry. We are upbeat about our industry sector recovering faster than other countries. This is the type of optimism that we should build and maintain as a symbol of national awakening," Kartasasmita affirmed.
Related news: Polri-TNI personnel to edify public on COVID-19 health protocols
Related news: 86% SOEs ready to implement 'new normal' protocol
Close
EDITED BY INE
https://en.antaranews.com/news/1494...urages-innovation-in-preparing-for-new-normal
nufix
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Just in case, I am a bit traumatized with how certain mod here acted. So consider this as my disclaimer.
Brainsucker
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Well, take it easy. I got warned by a mod some time ago too. Not only once but twice. And don't worry, I have report Raphael for his racism post.
Kansel
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Indonesia to get $300 million ADB loan for geothermal electricity generation
News Desk
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
Jakarta / Thu, May 28, 2020 / 06:56 pm
A geothermal heat pump installation owned by state-owned PT Geo Dipa Energi is in operation in Batang, Central Java, in January.(Antara/Anis Efizudin)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a US$300 million loan for state-owned geothermal energy company PT Geo Dipa Energi (GDE) to expand its geothermal power generation capacity.
GDE will receive an additional $35 million loan from the Clean Technology Fund for the project managed also by the ADB, the bank announced on Thursday.
The company will use the loan to increase its generation capacity by 110 megawatts for its largest electricity grid in Java by constructing and commissioning two geothermal plants in Dieng in Central Java and Patuha in West Java.
“The project is a national strategic project, and it will provide environmentally friendly base-load electricity to the Java–Bali electricity grid,” GDE president director Riki Ibrahim said in a statement.
He went on to say that the project could reduce CO2 emissions by more than 700,000 tons per year and provide direct assistance to local communities, including women and other vulnerable groups.
“The project will build critical geothermal experience in Indonesia and contribute to the government’s efforts in attracting private investors to the sector by reducing early-stage project development risk,” he added.
ADB country director for Indonesia Winfried F. Wicklein said the geothermal project would help Indonesia combat climate change and make its electricity system more sustainable and efficient.
“It can also help businesses and consumers access affordable and modern energy,” he said.
ADB senior energy specialist for Southeast Asia Shannon Cowlin said the project would help ensure that Indonesia’s economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic would be green, sustainable and resilient.
“The project will create jobs for those supplying goods and services for drilling and construction and will create livelihood opportunities in the local area,” she said.
Indonesia has the world’s largest geothermal energy potential with an estimated 29 gigawatts, and the world’s second-largest installed geothermal capacity at 2.1 GW.
However, the development of geothermal power remains slow, largely because the exploration phase is costly, lengthy and high risk. (eyc)
https://www.thejakartapost.com/amp/...ity-generation.html?__twitter_impression=true
News Desk
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
Jakarta / Thu, May 28, 2020 / 06:56 pm
A geothermal heat pump installation owned by state-owned PT Geo Dipa Energi is in operation in Batang, Central Java, in January.(Antara/Anis Efizudin)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a US$300 million loan for state-owned geothermal energy company PT Geo Dipa Energi (GDE) to expand its geothermal power generation capacity.
GDE will receive an additional $35 million loan from the Clean Technology Fund for the project managed also by the ADB, the bank announced on Thursday.
The company will use the loan to increase its generation capacity by 110 megawatts for its largest electricity grid in Java by constructing and commissioning two geothermal plants in Dieng in Central Java and Patuha in West Java.
“The project is a national strategic project, and it will provide environmentally friendly base-load electricity to the Java–Bali electricity grid,” GDE president director Riki Ibrahim said in a statement.
He went on to say that the project could reduce CO2 emissions by more than 700,000 tons per year and provide direct assistance to local communities, including women and other vulnerable groups.
“The project will build critical geothermal experience in Indonesia and contribute to the government’s efforts in attracting private investors to the sector by reducing early-stage project development risk,” he added.
ADB country director for Indonesia Winfried F. Wicklein said the geothermal project would help Indonesia combat climate change and make its electricity system more sustainable and efficient.
“It can also help businesses and consumers access affordable and modern energy,” he said.
ADB senior energy specialist for Southeast Asia Shannon Cowlin said the project would help ensure that Indonesia’s economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic would be green, sustainable and resilient.
“The project will create jobs for those supplying goods and services for drilling and construction and will create livelihood opportunities in the local area,” she said.
Indonesia has the world’s largest geothermal energy potential with an estimated 29 gigawatts, and the world’s second-largest installed geothermal capacity at 2.1 GW.
However, the development of geothermal power remains slow, largely because the exploration phase is costly, lengthy and high risk. (eyc)
https://www.thejakartapost.com/amp/...ity-generation.html?__twitter_impression=true
Indos
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Rupiah Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Level: Bank Indonesia
BY DIANA MARISKA
MAY 28, 2020
Jakarta. Indonesia's central bank said the rupiah still remains undervalued and will continue to strengthen to its pre-pandemic levels supported by a low inflation, narrowing current account deficit and increasing foreign capital inflow.
Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah might soon strengthen to Rp 13,600–Rp 14,000 against the US dollar.
"We believe the rupiah is still undervalued and has the potential to get back to its fundamental level," Perry said in a teleconference on Thursday.
The rupiah traded at Rp 14,769 against the greenback on Thursday, dropping by one basis point (bps) from a day earlier according to the Jakarta interbank dollar spot rate compiled by Bank Indonesia.
The currency has appreciated by 11 percent from its lowest level ever on March 23, when it traded at Rp 16,603 against the US dollar.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's current account deficit has narrowed to $3.9 billion or 1.4 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year from $8.1 billion or 2.8 percent of the GDP in the last quarter of 2019.
Perry said he took confidence from the declining spread of credit default swap (CDS) – a contract for investors to eliminate possible loss from a sovereign's default.
A high CDS spread indicates high investment risks.
"[CDS] is a premium for global investors when they hold bonds issued by the Indonesian government. To mitigate risks, they make CDS transactions, and for now [the CDS spread] is at 160 basis points," Perry said.
During the peak of the Covid-19 panic in the global market – in the second and third weeks of March – the CDS reached as high as 245 bps.
Before the pandemic, Indonesia's CDS spread was at 66 bps.
Support for Optimism
Perry's optimistic view has found some support among foreign investors. A study from global investment bank Morgan Stanley showed Indonesia could be among the first countries in Asia outside China and Japan to return to their pre-pandemic economic level.
Morgan Stanley said China's "first-in, first-out of Covid-19, domestic demand-oriented economy and policy easing" would help its economy to return to pre-Covid-19 levels by the third quarter of this year.
Indonesia, India and the Philippines would follow close behind, thanks to their "lower exposure to global recession impact and relatively high structural growth," Morgan Stanley said.
"The risk is if the Covid-19 pandemic does not peak by the second quarter, as per our assumption. If that happens, they would fall behind [Korea and Taiwan] on the timing of their recovery," Morgan Stanley said.
Export-oriented economies like Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore would recover slower, possibly by the first quarter next year, the investment bank said.
Low Ramadan Inflation
Bank Indonesia also estimated the country's annual inflation rate would likely be at 2.21 percent this month based on a preliminary survey from 43 branch offices across Indonesia until the fourth week of May.
The country recorded a 2.67 percent inflation last month, its lowest in the past 12 months. The Central Statistics Agency will announce May's inflation figure on Monday.
Perry said inflation in May was lower than the corresponding figures in previous Ramadans. The estimated month-to-month rate of 0.09 percent is significantly lower than in 2019 (0.68 percent and 0.55 percent before and after Idul Fitri, respectively), in 2018 (0.59 percent) and in 2017 (0.69 percent).
Low demand for goods and services as a result of restricted activities during the Covid-19 pandemic was one factor for the low inflation, along with low prices of imported goods.
Foreign Capital Inflow on the Up
Bank Indonesia data also show that foreign capital continues to come in to Indonesia, particularly from investors interested in buying government bonds.
There was Rp 2.97 trillion in foreign capital inflow in the first week of May before doubling to Rp 6.15 trillion on May 18–20, Perry said.
The yield on Indonesia's 10-year government bonds has declined from 8 percent in the second week of April to 7.22 percent on Wednesday, Perry said.
The spread between Indonesian government bonds and US Treasury bonds now stands at 6.7 percent, still an attractive opportunity for investors, Perry said.
https://jakartaglobe.id/business/rupiah-set-to-return-to-prepandemic-level-bank-indonesia
BY DIANA MARISKA
MAY 28, 2020
Jakarta. Indonesia's central bank said the rupiah still remains undervalued and will continue to strengthen to its pre-pandemic levels supported by a low inflation, narrowing current account deficit and increasing foreign capital inflow.
Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah might soon strengthen to Rp 13,600–Rp 14,000 against the US dollar.
"We believe the rupiah is still undervalued and has the potential to get back to its fundamental level," Perry said in a teleconference on Thursday.
The rupiah traded at Rp 14,769 against the greenback on Thursday, dropping by one basis point (bps) from a day earlier according to the Jakarta interbank dollar spot rate compiled by Bank Indonesia.
The currency has appreciated by 11 percent from its lowest level ever on March 23, when it traded at Rp 16,603 against the US dollar.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's current account deficit has narrowed to $3.9 billion or 1.4 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year from $8.1 billion or 2.8 percent of the GDP in the last quarter of 2019.
Perry said he took confidence from the declining spread of credit default swap (CDS) – a contract for investors to eliminate possible loss from a sovereign's default.
A high CDS spread indicates high investment risks.
"[CDS] is a premium for global investors when they hold bonds issued by the Indonesian government. To mitigate risks, they make CDS transactions, and for now [the CDS spread] is at 160 basis points," Perry said.
During the peak of the Covid-19 panic in the global market – in the second and third weeks of March – the CDS reached as high as 245 bps.
Before the pandemic, Indonesia's CDS spread was at 66 bps.
Support for Optimism
Perry's optimistic view has found some support among foreign investors. A study from global investment bank Morgan Stanley showed Indonesia could be among the first countries in Asia outside China and Japan to return to their pre-pandemic economic level.
Morgan Stanley said China's "first-in, first-out of Covid-19, domestic demand-oriented economy and policy easing" would help its economy to return to pre-Covid-19 levels by the third quarter of this year.
Indonesia, India and the Philippines would follow close behind, thanks to their "lower exposure to global recession impact and relatively high structural growth," Morgan Stanley said.
"The risk is if the Covid-19 pandemic does not peak by the second quarter, as per our assumption. If that happens, they would fall behind [Korea and Taiwan] on the timing of their recovery," Morgan Stanley said.
Export-oriented economies like Thailand, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore would recover slower, possibly by the first quarter next year, the investment bank said.
Low Ramadan Inflation
Bank Indonesia also estimated the country's annual inflation rate would likely be at 2.21 percent this month based on a preliminary survey from 43 branch offices across Indonesia until the fourth week of May.
The country recorded a 2.67 percent inflation last month, its lowest in the past 12 months. The Central Statistics Agency will announce May's inflation figure on Monday.
Perry said inflation in May was lower than the corresponding figures in previous Ramadans. The estimated month-to-month rate of 0.09 percent is significantly lower than in 2019 (0.68 percent and 0.55 percent before and after Idul Fitri, respectively), in 2018 (0.59 percent) and in 2017 (0.69 percent).
Low demand for goods and services as a result of restricted activities during the Covid-19 pandemic was one factor for the low inflation, along with low prices of imported goods.
Foreign Capital Inflow on the Up
Bank Indonesia data also show that foreign capital continues to come in to Indonesia, particularly from investors interested in buying government bonds.
There was Rp 2.97 trillion in foreign capital inflow in the first week of May before doubling to Rp 6.15 trillion on May 18–20, Perry said.
The yield on Indonesia's 10-year government bonds has declined from 8 percent in the second week of April to 7.22 percent on Wednesday, Perry said.
The spread between Indonesian government bonds and US Treasury bonds now stands at 6.7 percent, still an attractive opportunity for investors, Perry said.
https://jakartaglobe.id/business/rupiah-set-to-return-to-prepandemic-level-bank-indonesia
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