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Indonesia bans coal exports in January on domestic power worries

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Indonesia bans coal exports in January on domestic power worries

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Coal barges are pictured as they queue to be pulled along Mahakam river in Samarinda, East Kalimantan province, Indonesia, August 31, 2019. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

JAKARTA, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia has banned coal exports in January due to concerns that low supplies at domestic power plants could lead to widespread blackouts, a senior official at the energy ministry said on Saturday.

The Southeast Asian country is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, exporting around 400 million tonnes in 2020. Its biggest customers are China, India, Japan and South Korea.


Indonesia has a so-called Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy whereby coal miners must supply 25% of annual production to state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) at a maximum price of $70 per tonne, well below current market prices.

"Why is everyone banned from exporting? It's beyond us and it's temporary. If the ban isn't enforced, almost 20 power plants with the power of 10,850 megawatts will be out," Ridwan Jamaludin, director-general of minerals and coal at the energy ministry, said in a statement.


"If strategic actions aren't taken, there could be a widespread blackout."

Ridwan said coal supplies to power plants each month were below the DMO, so by the end of the year "there was a coal stockpile deficit," adding that the ban will be evaluated after Jan. 5.


The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) called on the energy minister to revoke the export ban, saying in a statement the policy was "taken hastily without being discussed with business players".

The widespread export ban may disrupt monthly coal production volumes of around 38-40 million tonnes said ICMA chairman Pandu Sjahrir. In recent years, Indonesia has exported about 30 million tonnes of coal in the month of January.

The association said it was also concerned about potential disputes with buyers if coal producers declared force majeure for not being able to deliver coal exports.

"Ships sailing to Indonesian waters will also experience conditions of uncertainty and this would affect Indonesia's reputation and reliability as world's coal supplier," Sjahrir said.

HIGHER PRICES

Ahmad Zuhdi Dwi Kusuma, an industry analyst at Bank Mandiri, said the ban would push global coal prices higher in coming weeks as stockpiles decline, adding Indonesia's customers may turn to Russia, Australia or Mongolia.

"In the midst of this global uncertainty, the market often seeks the safest partners," he said.

China's coal imports hit their highest level of 2021 in November, as the world's biggest consumer of the dirty fuel scrambled to feed its power system as the winter heating season kicked in. But Beijing had also ordered miners to boost production.

Putera Satria Sambijantoro, an economist at brokerage Bahana Sekuritas, said that Indonesia's economic growth may have resulted in a higher electricity and coal consumption forecasts than earlier projections.

The PLN did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In August 2021, Indonesia suspended coal exports from 34 coal mining companies it said failed to meet domestic market obligations between January and July last year.

Indonesia is among the top 10 global green house gas emitters and coal makes up around 60% of its energy sources.

 
Big coal miner supports the government

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This is Adaro Energy's reaction to the ban on coal exports

Jakarta,ruangenergi.com

Head of Corporate Communication of Adaro Energy, Febrianti Nadira, said that it was Adaro's priority to comply with the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) regulations and meet the demand and supply of coal.

For 2021, Adaro's DMO is around 11.1 million tons. Domestic sales realization in January – October 2021 was 9.69 million tons.

Ira, Febrianti Nadira's nickname, conveyed this when asked for a response to the news that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed a coal export ban from January 1, 2022 to January 31, 2022.

The government has taken a policy to ban coal exports for the period 1 to 31 January 2022 for holders of Mining Business Permits (IUP) or IUPKs for the Production Operation stage, IUPK as Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations and PKP2B.

This step is taken to ensure the fulfillment of coal supply for power plants. This lack of supply will impact more than 10 million PT PLN (Persero) customers, ranging from the general public to industry, in Java, Madura, Bali (Jamali) and non-Jamali areas.

 
High energy prices are likely to remain for a decade and there will be competition to get energy sources. Gas will likely be used as part of green energy as transition into renewable energy will likely not happen as smooth as people may think.

This then should make energy companies to keep bullies on gas mining, not decreasing the investment. For coal, the demand will like still increase until 5 years to come as current new coal power plant contracts will keep being proceeded, only the ones which hasnt made effective contract that will be banned, it is also the case in Indonesia.
 
Indonesia strategy

 
LNG, coal lead 2021 commodities rally as markets eye COVID-19 for next move
By Naveen Thukral and Florence Tan

  • Summary
  • LNG up more than 200%, while coal prices have doubled in 2021
  • Copper added a quarter in 2021, aluminium up 40%
  • Agriculture markets, including vegoil, made sharp gains
  • Commodities seen staying firm in 2022 if COVID-19 tamed
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Bucket wheel excavators await the start of lignite mining from the coal mines near the town of Obilic, Kosovo September 10, 2021. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Fatos Bytyci/File Photo

SINGAPORE, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Commodity prices from energy and metals to agricultural products rebounded sharply in 2021, with power fuels leading the rally, driven by tight supplies and a strong economic recovery as COVID-19 vaccinations staved off widespread lockdowns.

Global demand for commodities is expected to remain robust in 2022 and underpin prices as the world economy continues to recover, although similar price jumps are unlikely, analysts and traders say.


"2021 has been characterised by a huge broad-based rally," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at brokerage OANDA.

"Although I believe commodity prices will remain robust, I believe the rebound in 2020 and the rally of 2021 will be exceptional years and as such I am not anticipating the same level of gains in the year ahead."


Energy and food prices rocketed higher this year, hammering utilities and consumers from Beijing to Brussels, raising inflationary pressures.

High prices are encouraging producers to ramp up output, but some analysts expect supplies for products such as oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to stay tight as these projects require years for production to come on line.


Top energy markets in 2021

Top energy markets in 2021

ENERGY

Record coal and natural gas prices led to a severe power crunch from Europe to India and China in 2021.

Asian LNG rallied more than 200%, while Asia's benchmark coal prices doubled.

"Global LNG demand grew by 20 million tonnes per year in 2021 with Asia accounting for virtually all of this growth," said Valery Chow, head of Asia gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie, adding that more than 20% growth in demand from China has made it the world's top importer, overtaking Japan.

"However, persistently high LNG spot prices are likely to start dampening overall demand growth, especially in the more price-sensitive markets of South Asia and Southeast Asia," he said.

Global oil prices , also recovered 50% to 55% in 2021, with Brent settling at $77.78 per barrel and WTI at $75.21 per barrel, and are set to rise further next year as jet fuel demand catches up. [nL1N2TG03Y]

In China, coal prices have more than halved from a record high reached in October after the top producer and consumer boosted output and tamed prices.

METALS

The power crunch in China and Europe hit aluminium production, driving prices up over 40% for a second year of gains. However, it also affected demand for iron ore as the world's top steel producer China cut output.

Iron ore prices, which hit record peaks in May, crashed in the second half of the year amid strict output curbs in China. Dalian iron ore futures fell more than 10% after a massive rally over the past two years. read more

Base metals are expected to outperform as energy transition will drive demand, analysts say, while supply chain bottlenecks could persist.

LME copper rose for a third year, up about 25% in 2021.

"Copper demand is expected to enter its second year of expansion, especially after the recently-concluded COP26 demonstrated an increasing willingness by governments to prioritise clean energy," OCBC economist Howie Lee said.

China’s main metals markets in 2021

China’s main metals markets in 2021

RALLYING AGRICULTURE MARKETS

Chicago soybeans rose for a third year in a row, corn by 22% and wheat by more than 20%.

Supply constraints due to adverse weather and strong demand generally boosted agricultural markets.

Both Malaysian palm oil and soybean oil added more than 30%, each rallying for a third year.

Top global agriculture futures markets in 2021

Top global agriculture futures markets in 2021

For beverages, arabica coffee added almost 80%, taking gains into a second year and robustas jumped 70%, recouping three years of losses, as supply chain issues increased appetite.

Raw sugar rose more than 20%, rallying for a third year and white sugar made similar gains as production fell in top producer Brazil because of a drought and frosts.

Precious metals prices may cool, dragged down by strong risk appetite in equities and other markets, analysts say.

Gold was largely unchanged after dropping last year and silver is set to end the year down after two strong years.

 
Coal export ban to ensure reliability of power supply: PLN
2nd January 2022


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A coal-fired power plant operated by state-owned electricity provider PT PLN (Persero). (ANTARA/HO-PLN/am/uyu

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Indonesian government's decision to ban coal exports due to the declining domestic supply of the mineral will ensure the reliability of electricity supply, state-owned electricity provider PT PLN (Persero) has said.

PLN’s executive vice president for corporate communications, Agung Murdifi, said that the government's full support will ensure the fulfillment of coal supply for power plants to maintain national electricity reliability and protect national interests.

Related news: PLN completes 27 electricity infrastructure projects in 2021

"It is in accordance with the mandate of Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution as well as related laws and regulations, which state that national resources must be used as much as possible for the prosperity of the people, including for PLN's operations," he remarked in a statement released on Saturday.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has emphasized that coal demand for all PLN power plants is a matter of national interest and its fulfillment must be prioritized by all mining business license holders, he noted.

Related news: Indonesia bans coal exports until Jan 31

"The potential of power outages for 10 million PLN customers can be avoided thanks to the (government) support," Murdifi stated.

PLN is ready to ensure the availability, reliability, and affordability of electricity for all Indonesian people by optimizing its operational sector and getting coal supply reserves for at least 20 operating days, he added.

To ensure service during the 2022 New Year holiday, the company has deployed 48,179 officers, ranging from the operational sector to customer services, he informed.

The enterprise will work efficiently to implement the policy in a short time by mobilizing all available resources as well as coordinating with the ministry and other stakeholders related to the coal supply chain, he added.

Earlier in the day, the director general of mineral and coal at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, Ridwan Jamaludin, announced that the government has temporarily banned coal exports from January 1 to January 31, 2022, to ensure the availability of coal stocks for domestic power plants.


Related news: Almost 1 million Pfizer doses arrive from Italy

Related news: Uno calls for Formula E pre-events involving MSMEs


Reporter: Sugiharto Purnama, Uyu Liman
Editor: Fardah Assegaf
COPYRIGHT © ANTARA 2022

 
Viewpoint: Indonesia projects higher 2022 coal demand

Published date: 03 January 2022


As of 21 December 2021, Indonesia looked set to fall short of its 2021 coal production target of 625mn t, following rain-related disruptions to output earlier in the year. But the country's producers are hopeful that global and domestic demand will increase this year as economies recover from the pandemic. This means Indonesian coal production could increase on the year in 2022.

Indonesia's coal output stood at 588.54mn t as of 21 December 2021, equating to 94.17pc of the national production target, according to energy ministry (ESDM) data. The ESDM is expecting coal producers to raise output to 637-664mn t this year based on preliminary discussions with coal mining companies, as it expects mining companies to try and take advantage of expectations that coal prices will remain relatively high. But the projection is based on preliminary discussions and is yet to be confirmed.

The ESDM will finalise its 2022 national coal production target after coal producers submit their work plans for approval. The Indonesian coal mining association (APBI) has said it expects a modest increase in output this year as producers look to take advantage of coal prices, which it forecasts will be relatively high.

It is difficult to forecast Indonesian coal output as production is subject to external factors such as weather-related delays, prevailing coal prices and changing demand dynamics. A lack of heavy mining machinery and slower infrastructure development were also cited as reasons why output in 2021 lagged behind target. Funding difficulties could also hamper any potential plans for increased output, with a number of financial institutions turning their backs on funding new coal projects.

Monthly global thermal coal exports mostly rose last year although seaborne supply remained down compared with pre-pandemic levels. Global exports in January-August 2021 were higher by 3.2pc, or 19.8mn t, than in the same period of 2020, at 634.4mn t, according to Argus estimates based on customs and shipping data. But this was still lower by 6.5pc, or 44.4mn t, of the January-August total in 2019.

Suppliers optimistic on demand
But Indonesian coal suppliers remain optimistic about the prospects of coal demand in both the domestic and international markets, despite a growing push against fossil fuel use to combat climate change. Indonesian coal producers and government officials project a continued increase in demand for coal while coal prices are also expected to remain relatively high in 2022.

The APBI said that the contraction in the Indonesian HBA coal reference price for December 2021 to $159.79/t was merely a price correction following a strong rally earlier in the year. The HBA price peaked at $215.01/t in November 2021, nearly three times higher than the 2021 low of $75.84/t in January. The APBI said that while it does not expect coal prices to return to the historical highs of 2021 this year, it expects the HBA price to still hover above the $100/t mark.

The APBI said that its projections for relatively high coal prices are based on expectations of higher demand for coal as countries recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Demand in Asia will still primarily be centred on key consumers China and India. Demand from developing countries such as the Philippines is also expected to increase in 2022, it said.

Global coal demand could rise to a record high of 8.025bn t in 2022 and stay at this level until 2024, according to the International Energy Agency's 2021 coal report released last month.

In Indonesia's domestic market, state-owned utility PLN is projecting a 5.3pc year-on-year increase in coal demand from the power sector alone in 2022. PLN expects Indonesian power generators to consume 119mn t of coal in 2022, up from 113mn t in 2020, as new coal-fired generation capacity is brought online. PLN's own coal-fired power plants are expected to consume up to 68.42mn t while independent power producers are projected to consume up to 50.76mn t in 2022.

By Antonio delos Reyes and Andrew Jones

 
Indonesia should sell while prices are still high. There are some massive supply coming online in China in the short term and will drive down coal prices.
 
Indonesian coal producers to declare force majeure amid ban on exports in Jan

  • COAL | METALS
  • 03 Jan 2022 | 06:12 UTC

Coal miners in Indonesia are likely to declare force majeure after the government banned exports in January to increase domestic supply as power plants grapple with critically low stock levels, market sources said.

While some miners are understood to have already declared force majeure, others are likely to follow suit, sources said, without divulging further details. Even cargoes already loaded till Dec. 31, 2021, are barred from sailing, sources said, adding this could likely lead to de facto force majeure of mines across the country.

The export ban has led to uncertainty in the market as supply to key consumers including China and India will be affected, given that deals already done are also subject to the ban.

The move comes at a time when coal stocks at domestic power plants of the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal fell to critically low levels, raising possible risk of disruption to power supply in the country.

As part of the Domestic Market Obligation, Indonesia's energy ministry has mandated producers to prioritize supply to state-owned PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero), or PLN. Under the DMO, coal miners must supply 25% of annual production to the domestic market, of which PLN takes the major portion.

Ridwan Jamaludin, director general of mineral and coal at the energy ministry, said if the export ban is not enforced, nearly 20 steam power plants with a power of around 10,850 MW will be impacted.

"This has the potential to disrupt the stability of the national economy," he said Jan. 1.

Reconsideration on ban possible

Market sources said there would be another meeting between the coal producers and the government on Jan. 5 to reconsider specific details of the ban.

An Indonesia-based producer said he expects the ban to be revoked for those producers that are able to meet the DMO by Jan. 5. Other said all mines will likely need to declare force majeure till the ban is revoked or something else is announced Jan. 5.

"From the 5.1 million mt assigned by the government until Jan. 1, 2022, only 35,000 mt or less than 1% has been fulfilled. This amount cannot meet the needs of each existing PLTU," Ridwan said.

Sources said the sudden demand from the government could disrupt supply fundamentals and lead to force majeures. "Their [PLN] consumption is only 7 million mt/month and suddenly they want 5 million mt. Realistically, some change should happen in one or two days," an Indonesia-based producer said.

"We have given notices to our buyers and other producers have canceled delivery for January. This is a force majeure situation because it is for now applying to everyone," the producer said.

Sellers prefer exporting coal as it gives immediate cash benefits to a miner whereas supplying to DMO leads to payments at a later date. Also, export prices are higher than what miners get under DMO, sources said.

Participants seek exemption

While some sources said coal specifications that do not match PLN requirements must be exempt from the export ban, miners said those producers who have met 75% of their domestic obligations should be allowed to export.

Ridwan said while the coal that is already on board and contracts that have been signed before are also subject to the ban, aspects with the buyers will be consulted later.

Indonesia exported about 300 million mt coal in 2021, with China, India, Japan and South Korea being the largest customers.

The ban could disrupt coal production of around 38 million-40 million mt, according to the Indonesian Coal Mining Association APBI. "As a result, the government has the potential to lose foreign exchange from coal exports of around $3 billion per month."

"They [buyers' ships] want to leave but there is no sailing permit," an Indonesia-based trader said. The traded added that discussions about Indonesian coal price were meaningless at the moment with the confusion around the supply ban.

The price of Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR averaged $67.70/mt FOB in 2021, up from $29.50/mt FOB in 2020, S&P Global Platts data showed. The price of 4,200 kcal/kg GAR was assessed at $63.45/mt FOB Dec. 31, according to Platts data.

Indonesia's annual production target for 2021 was set at 650 million mt, while its actual output stood at 611.42 million mt, according to Minerba One Data.

Earlier in August, Indonesia's federal energy ministry threatened to impose an export ban on 34 coal companies if they failed to meet their DMO, however, most companies came out of it quickly.

 
Indonesia coal exports are overwhelmingly exported to Asia's big economies, China, India, South Korea, and Japan. All of them received 73 % of Indonesian coal export in 2021.

 
Last edited:
Indonesia should sell while prices are still high. There are some massive supply coming online in China in the short term and will drive down coal prices.

The problem has been resolved just within days, our state owned utility company, PLN, who has majority of power plant in Indonesia has said their coal stock has been full just within days. We should see the current coal stock of independent power plants owned by private sectors before resuming the export, IMO the export will be resumed in the third week of January

 
 
Coal Price Set To Surge As Major Producer Indonesia Bans Exports
By Irina Slav - Jan 04, 2022, 10:00 AM CST
  • Coal prices moved higher after Indonesia imposed a temporary ban on coal exports
  • President Joko Widodo threatened miners with business license revocation should they fail to supply enough coal for domestic consumption
  • The Indonesian government said the ban is not final and will be revisited later this week

Coal prices moved higher and have higher still to go as Indonesia imposed a temporary ban on coal exports on worries that it will be unable to meet domestic demand.

Reuters reported that President Joko Widodo had also threatened miners with business license revocation should they fail to supply enough coal for domestic consumption.

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal, and there is concern the ban will be disruptive to the global supply. According to Bloomberg, Indonesia is expected to export 482 million tons of coal, far ahead of the world’s second-largest exporter, Australia, with 204 million tons.

“Losing 40% of the seaborne market overnight, in the midst of peak winter demand, could set us up for another coal price spike,” Morgan Stanley commodity analysts wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg.

Coal has rallied substantially this year amid higher energy demand and tight supplies of natural gas, and coal exporters have enjoyed windfall profits as the world—even Europe—reverses its negative stance on the most polluting fossil fuel. The rally was ignited by China, which effectively banned imports from Australia amid surging energy demand, although it was later forced to restart purchases of Australian coal.

However, this has also sparked concern about the security of supply, and for Indonesia specifically, it caused lower than usual inventory levels, which was the reason for the proposed ban, as the government worried about the risk of widespread blackouts.

Indonesia already has a protective mechanism to secure domestic supply. It is called a Domestic Market Obligation policy that stipulates coal miners active in the country must supply 25 percent of their output to state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara, at a maximum fixed price of $70 per ton. To compare, the benchmark Newcastle coal is trading at above $150 per ton at the moment.

The Indonesian government said the ban is not final and will be revisited later this week.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

 
Indonesia talks on coal exports postponed as scores of ships in limbo
Author of the article:
Reuters

Reuters

Publishing date:

Jan 05, 2022 • 2 hours ago • 2 minute read

JAKARTA — Indonesian authorities on Wednesday postponed a meeting with coal miners to discuss a ban on coal exports, as scores of ships moored off the coast due to load remained in limbo.

The world’s top exporter of thermal coal and China’s largest overseas supplier on Saturday announced a ban on exports in January to avoid outages at its own generators.

The ban sent thermal coal futures in China surging reflecting concerns it could threaten energy security in some of the world’s biggest economies.


China’s benchmark thermal coal futures rose by as much as 7.8% on Tuesday in the first day of trading since the policy was announced, before paring gains on Wednesday. The futures were last traded at 702 yuan a tonne, down 1.3%.

ICE Newcastle monthly coal futures also jumped sharply when trading resumed on January 4, registering their largest one-day gain since November 3 and topping $174 a tonne for the first time since October.

Coal miners had been scheduled to meet Indonesian trade minister Muhammad Lutfi on Wednesday morning, but talks did not take place, officials at the Indonesian Coal Miners Association (ICMA) said. They said no new meeting time had been agreed. Ministry officials declined to comment.

Separately, State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Minister Erick Thohir said his ministry, along with the energy ministry, planned to hold talks with state power company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) to review their coal supplies.

“We will clearly map out the condition in each coal power plant, so later on we won’t find any more problems,” Erick said in a statement late on Tuesday.

The meeting with PLN might take place on Wednesday evening followed by talks between the energy ministry and miners, an official at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said.

BUILD UP

During the impasse over exports, around 100 vessels either loading or waiting to load a total of around 5.9 million tonnes of coal have amassed near Indonesia’s main coal ports off Kalimantan, Refinitiv data shows. This includes around 25 vessels waiting off the port of Samarinda and 27 off Taboneo.

“We have not seen any shipments ..loaded after 31st December, said a trader in India’s Western Gujarat state.

PLN on Tuesday said it had secured an extra 7.5 million tonnes of coal, but aimed to continue increasing stockpiles so it had at least enough supplies to last 20 days. Indonesia’s Tangguh and Bontang gas plants are committed to selling 58 cargoes of liquefied natural gas to PLN in 2022, regulator SKK MIgas said on Wednesday. Indonesian President Joko Widodo this week called on LNG producers and coal miners to prioritize domestic market needs.

In a stock exchange filing, state coal miner PT Bukit Asam on Wednesday said ICMA and the trade ministry has submitted to the energy ministry names of companies that had fulfilled their domestic market obligations (DMO) “in which it is proposed to lift the export ban for such companies.”

Those obligations require miners to sell 25% of their output to local power plants at a maximum price of $70 per tonne.

(Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe, Fransiska Nangoy, Sudharshan Varadhan; editing by Ed Davies and Jason Neely)

 
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