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By- Dr. Punit Saurabh, Researcher (Strategic affairs) Ph.D (IIT-Kharagpur)
With India, US, Australia & Japan recently holding the first multi-country Malabar naval exercise along with bilaterals in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) and Asia pacific, things are turning out to be interesting for the foreign policy hawks. The significant aspect of this exercise is the participation of these nations which is the first major exercise taking place after 2007 Malabar conducted in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese protest during that time had prevented India to conduct any major trilateral exercise with Japan since then which could be seen as an engagement to counter China. No more.
What could be the reasons behind the change in the strategic policy that forced India to take the decision unmindful of the Chinese protests? We analyze few of the reasons which could have played a major role in the change in favor of a proactive strategy.
The ‘Modi’ Factor ::
One of the most important factor behind the stiffening of the Indian spine is the advent of the new Government headed by Narendra Modi seen as a no nonsense person with the guts to take on the challenge that the Chinese had been throwing ever since both the nations engaged in a short border war in 1962. Notably, there were more than 450 Chinese land intrusions in the Chosul, Tawang and Laddakh regions since the last 3 years of UPA with a frightening upward trend seen. Modi has clearly maintained that the current policy will not be left rudderless on the back of repeated intrusions on the Indian borders which peaked with the advent of Modi government with the objective to unsettle and unnerve the new administration. Clearly an evil ploy by the Chinese which was visible during Prez Xi’s visit to India. It was the constructive engagement that the PM of India had made with exchange of visits between both the nations backed by strong military strategic intervention and tactics which saved the day. Observers have a reason to believe that a rapid shift in the ground scenario with decline in the intrusions from the Chinese side substantially. In the back of this sword dangling the Indian government has since doubled the number of forward posts with doubling the number of military personals on the Chinese borders while also announcing the reduction in the Mountain division from 1 lakh to 60 thousand to signal its peaceful intent. Having said that, for the first time Indian forces dared to cross the Line of Control to destroy a Chinese watch tower in the complicated Ladakh region is a proof of the high spiritedness of the forces and its willingness to throw the gauntlet whenever asked.
Chinese external engagements ::
As much as the end of the policy paralysis in the India strategy, the current state of affairs and a diplomatic war waged by the US, Japan in the backdoor of China in connivance with East Asian nations reduces the Chinese freedom to focus on countering India. The Japanese and US have significantly began arming the Philippines and Vietnam navy with offshore vessels, landing ships and second hand frigates along with training in anti submarine reconnaissance using sophisticated platforms like P8-A Poseidon long range aircrafts. South Korea just delivered two fighter aircrafts. Even India is planning a slew of projects which includes construction and refitting of Vietnam / Philippines warships in Indian yards and training to pilots at Indian air force centres. It has also increased naval exchanges and port visits with the South Asian neighbours while strengthening its presence in the Malacca Straits and Andaman’s. India is also considering selling the Brahmos cruise missiles with a range of 290 kms to Vietnam if the need arises. Russia has already made it clear that it has no objections to the sale of missiles to Vietnam. Vietnam has infact rapidly upped its undersea capabilities with the acquisition of 6 submarines from Russia which could pose a significant threat to the Chinese Navy something that the US would be happy with. Malaysia’s foreign minister seems to have joined the rhetoric against China when he objected to the Chinese hegemony in the East Asian region recently.
Most importantly, India is no longer a pushover and has come a long way since both countries engaged in a short border standoff in 1961. India’s army is as big militarily (3.5 million) taking the reserves into factor as the Chinese (4.5 million) and has a dependable arsenal and a strong government to take care of any exigency. Indian navy is the fourth largest and boosts of two aircraft carriers, a factor the Chinese cannot ignore as they are yet to master the art of handling a war machine as big as an aircraft carrier. Having said that, Chinese are very good copycats and no one should doubt their abilities to come up with fighter planes or an aircraft carrier in short time. Remember that they got an outdated sinking Varyag and remodeled it into a practice carrier and are building 2 carriers inhouse. What must give solace is that by 2018, India will boost of two well armed aircraft carriers and several new frigates, anti submarine corvettes and home built destroyers to address the gaps indigenously. From 2016 onwards, India will be adding 1 home built submarines every year starting 2016. The good news is that the Government has finally decided to order another 3 submarines to keep the existing lines busy. With another six SSN submarines approved for construction, 3 SSBNs including Arihant and Aridaman under construction and another 6 AP enabled stealth submarines under process of tendering, clearly tackling India will not be a mean task. India’s plan to purchase another Akula class SSBN submarines from Russia will add to the force levels. Given the precariously low number of subs available at present with the IN at any given time, it is hoped that the government will take quick decisions to meliorate the navy’s concerns.
The failing Chinese growth story ::
The best part of the story is the failing Chinese economic might on the down swing which has actually led China to reduce the Chinese Reserve numbers by 3 hundred thousand. Even though analysts indicate Chinese intent for going for a lean but Mean Defence force as the main reason, but clearly economic concerns are the major reason for the same. Notwithstanding the Pakistani threats and Chinese connections, with projections of Chinese growth slipping and stabilizing at 4.9 % by 2020 (as per Harvard projections) and India’s growth cracking the glass at 7.9 %, it is hoped that things will be clearer and definitely better for the Indian defence forces in the coming years.
Conclusions ::
Above all, the resolve of 1.29 crore Indians goes a long distance in supporting the defence forces to be at the top. Let us not forget that the defence of the nation is not just a prerogative or the concern of the forces but each and every arm of the nation, be it the government or the ordinary citizens. Government policies through a working ‘Make in India’ policy mated with a solid acquisition policy for strategic assets without delay is the need of the hour which will help us become self-reliant and help the Government to take prompt and unshakable decisions.
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This article was first published on Defence, Indian Defence, Indian Armed Forces, Defence News, India Defence News, Indian Defence News, Indian Army, Indian Navy, Indian Air Force, US Defense News, UK Defence News, World Defence News at 11:50 p.m. on the 16th of December 2015.
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Dr. Punit Saurabh
Ph.D , International Strategy,Technology Innovation Management,
Vinod Gupta School of Management
Indian Institute of Technology- Kharagpur
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Defence News, China warns against provoking confrontation on India Japan naval drills
