India’s GDP may expand by 7% in 2nd quarter of FY24: Experts

[NG Missile Vessels]

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) may expand by nearly 7% in the second quarter of FY24 on sound economic fundamentals, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October 6 estimate of 6.5%, but in line with governor Shaktikanta Das’s prediction on Tuesday, at least four experts said.

Speaking at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit on Tuesday, Das said India’s economic growth number in the second quarter (Q2) is likely to surprise “on the upside”. His observation was based on trends such as momentum of economic activities and some early indicators. The following day, Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in October surged to ₹1.72 lakh crore, the second highest monthly collection since the new indirect tax regime started in July 2017.

The official GDP number for Q2 (July-September 2023) is expected to be released on November 30.

“The reasons for the current optimism regarding India’s growth prospect for 2QFY24 lie in the buoyant high frequency indicators for recent months,” said EY chief policy advisor DK Srivastava. The core Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth averaged 9.7% in the second quarter (2Q) of FY24, gross GST collections averaged ₹1.62 lakh crore, and PMI manufacturing and services also showed high levels at an average of 57.9 and 61.1 respectively.

"Power consumption, automobile sales, and credit growth also provide strongly positive signals. It would not, therefore, be a surprise if the 2QFY24 growth exceeds RBI’s earlier expectation of 6.5%,” he said. For the year as a whole, there is a strong likelihood that GDP growth may turn out to be 6.5%, marginally higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank’s projection of 6.3%, he added. RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its meeting on October 4-6 this year meeting projected real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 6.5% with Q2 at 6.5%; Q3 at 6%; and Q4 at 5.7%.

Srivastava, however, cautioned about the risks.

“Some of the risk factors that India may still need to take into account include deficiency and uneven spread of the southwest monsoon, volatile global crude prices, and some supply side disruptions due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts,” he said. “It is however definite that India will outperform its large peer economies by a tangible margin,” he added.

Nilaya Varma, co-founder and CEO of consultancy firm Primus Partners, said: “Strong GDP growth for the quarter will not be a surprise. Most high frequency indicators are in the green- IIP is up 8-12%, PMI is around 58 indicating strong expansion, SBI banking is showing 19% yoy growth, automobile sales are at their historic high.” Higher infrastructure spend should be able to sustain this growth, he added.

Global agencies also saw Indian economy growing faster than previously estimated this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook last month said, It projected India’s 2023-24 GDP growth to be 6.3%, a 20-basis point up from the July numbers. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Last month, World Bank also retained India’s economic growth forecast for 2023-24 at 6.3% in its biannual review despite challenging external conditions. “IMF, in its October 2023 issue of the World Economic Outlook, has highlighted India’s position as the global growth leader among major economies with a medium-term growth prospect of 6.3% in each year from 2023 (FY24) to 2028 (FY29),” Srivastava said in the latest edition of EY Economic Watch.

India’s GDP may expand by 7% in 2nd quarter of FY24: Experts

The official GDP number for Q2 (July-September 2023) is expected to be released on November 30.

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[NG Missile Vessels]

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday said the growth momentum in the economy continues to be strong, and that the GDP number for the second quarter will surprise everyone on the upside. Shaktikanta Das said that geopolitical uncertainty is the biggest risk to global growth but was quick to add that India is better placed to deal with any potentially risky situation.

Speaking at the annual BFSI Insight Summit organised by Business Standard, Shaktikanta Das said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is watching the issue of attrition at some private sector banks “closely".

In the comments that come amid some major banks reporting attrition rates of over 30 per cent, Das said every bank has to build a core team to take care of such issues.

He also said that the career outlook of youngsters has changed with regard to job switching and added that the youth is "thinking differently" on the aspect now. He said that the RBI is looking at the issue as part of the regulatory supervision efforts.

India's Q2 GDP number will surprise everyone: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

Shaktikanta Das said that geopolitical uncertainty is the biggest risk to global growth but was quick to add that India is better placed to deal with any potentially risky situation.

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[nahtanbob]

Must be fake news

 

[buntalanlucu]

iNDIA always looks good and have promising future ... ON PAPER

in realty it is descending into chaos as poverty , brutality , tribal and religions animousity and rebellious provinces all conspire to drag india down into another civil war breakup.

this is the fate of ALL delusional nations in the history of man , just like how the arrogant Carthage think they can squash Roman republic because they are the Naval superpower and Trade superpower in the mediterran.. turned out they are outwitted and destroyed by Rome due to their arrogance

ok carthage might be bad example as it is truly the naval superpower at that time , while india is the supapowa in the next 5 or is 10 or is it 50 years in the future ?