India's GDP Data Overstated: Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma

[SrNair]

Please provide the source. I don't think the UN is lying especially when it is talking about fdi.

There is a lots of thread in PDF.Do search and find it if you want .
Dont have time and interest in repeating same BS again .

 

[Roybot]

The guy Ruchir Sharma has just released his book, make a controversial statement, instant popularity, profit?

 

[Tripoli]

Actually my Indian brothers must be confused between the media reports in one of the category of FDI where India got largest I dont remember it but a little google will help, rest India is not the largest FDI receiver as of now, but the % increase is highest in largest economies.

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Jlaw]

You know neither compounding nor math nor facts. Sorry to burst your bubble stupid. But in 2004, when you were in your middle age mother china was exactly at the level where India is now.

why don't you just say back in 200 BC, China is nowhere close to a 2016 mother India

 

[SrNair]

11 trillion vs 1.7 trillion. I don't think Chinese frustrated at all

Then why should you concern and post in the thread like this ?
As an Indian I could sense the changing face of my nation .
We dont need a Chinese certificate.

 

[Centurion2016]

IF YOU COULD CONCEIVABLY FUDGE GDP FIGURES then believe me everybody would do this NOT JUST INDIA.

Evferybody starting with China notourisly secretive and pakisatan and Libya and North Korea.

Im not convinced You can fudge these things.

IF YOU CAN FUDGE THEM whose to say anyones GDP is correct EVEN usa CHINA CUBA SUADI etc

where do you draw the line .

 

[Dzz]

Its funny how the mods keep their lips shut in every thread where the Chinese users keep trolling asking for whiplash .

Anyway have any of you even read the article , first off the very ideology he is using is absurd, its true but completely out of place , his entire argument is based on the fact that India's inflation is higher than the "miracle" economies like Korea , Japan , Taiwan . This logic is wrong because despite what he or anyone says , India is not growing faster than their economies during their maturing age . No one is claiming India is growing at 10% or 13% it's the same modest 7-8% India has had over a decade .

 

[Nilgiri]

India is at number 7 not number 1.
@Skull and Bones @SrNair @Laozi @xxx @Arsalan @Nilgiri The UN(UNCTAD to be more specific) is the most credible organisation when it comes to such data.
Does this mean that the Indian chest thumping about being the largest receiver of FDI was a lie?

Some media jumped the gun and didnt understand the content (and some did and posted the difference clearly).

India certainly was number 1 in Greenfield (completely new projects) FDI in the last fiscal year I believe.

This is different from total FDI since total FDI includes greenfield+brownfield+opex etc...(brownfield and opex concern existing projects).

The figure for India should also be 44 billion. There was a mistake in the UNCTAD report you took this graphic from.

You can check the final figures here:

http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World Investment Report/Country-Fact-Sheets.aspx

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Look like Chinese have a lots of frustration.

If Chinese stock market's collapse, its Morgan Stanley's fault.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/16/inside-china-stock-market-crash-blamed-on-us-consp/

While most analysts point to structural fault lines in China’s economic and political system as the ultimate culprit, many Chinese investors assign blame to a Western conspiracy in general and leading U.S. financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in particular as the root cause of the stock market woes — despite the fact that foreigners are generally restricted from investing in Chinese stock exchanges.

But if Morgan Stanley states India's GDP is overstated, it must be as divine as the words of the omnipotent God like CCP.

Some amazing cognitive dissonance at display here

Fun fact, in 2015, it was Morgan Stanley forecasted India's GDP for 2016 would grow at 7.9%

http://articles.economictimes.india...ws/61102914_1_growth-mix-gdp-growth-forecasts

MUMBAI: The country's economy will grow at 7.9 per cent this fiscal and 8.4 per cent in FY 2016-17, on the back of policy reforms, spurt in domestic demand and lower inflation, according to foreign broking firm Morgan Stanley.

"The government's determined efforts to implement policy actions to improve the growth mix, i.e. reviving productive investment and cutting back less effective re-distributive policies, are helping the economy move towards the path of faster growth and lower inflation," it said in a note on Monday.

Under the new growth computation methodology, the GDP expansion at market prices will go up to 7.9 per cent in FY16 and accelerate further to 8.4 per cent in FY17, it said.

Stating that the risk to the growth forecasts are "evenly balanced", it said that the pace of policy actions to revive productivity dynamics, strength of external demand recovery and trend in capital inflows into emerging markets are the key factors to monitor.

The country switched to a newer system of GDP growth computation, which made it the fastest growing major economy in the world. Analysts still take the numbers with caution owing to absence of comparable back data.

Morgan Stanley said under the older series of growth, its FY16 growth estimate remains unchanged at 6.5 per cent.

The Narendra Modi-led government has initiated a slew of reforms such as opening up the defence sector for private and foreign investments, increasing foreign ownership caps in insurance etc to step up growth.

Inflation has also been trending below 5.5 per cent, well within the RBI's targets. The government and RBI have also agreed on an inflation targeting framework, which will make monetary policy more predictable.

The note said that growth will start picking up from the April quarter and external demand is set to improve during the second half of the year.

On inflation, it remarked that the retail price index will come below five per cent, which will create more room for the RBI for rate cuts to push growth.

The government is expecting a GDP growth of 8-8.5 per cent and to clock double-digit level in the subsequent years.

"Growth in 2015-16 is expected to be between 8-8.5 per cent. Aiming for a double digit rate seems feasible very soon," Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had said while presenting the Budget for 2015-16.

 

[Nilgiri]

If Chinese stock market's collapse, its Morgan Stanley's fault.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/16/inside-china-stock-market-crash-blamed-on-us-consp/




But if Morgan Stanley states India's GDP is overstated, it must be as divine as the words of the omnipotent God like CCP.

Some amazing cognitive dissonance at display here

Fun fact, in 2015, it was Morgan Stanley forecasted India's GDP for 2016 would grow at 7.9%

http://articles.economictimes.india...ws/61102914_1_growth-mix-gdp-growth-forecasts

Well GDP growth rate is not dependent on the "inflation" of the base GDP figure given the "discrepancies" that exist in the current estimates that will only be addressed over time as the data series fills out in the coming years. A 500 billion "real" economy can also grow at 8% compared to its trillion dollar "inflation" (just an example).

We should not take such comments of "inflation" of GDP too seriously given its a new methodology in play right now that has caused a series break and is thus vulnerable to various errors that is only natural. Thats why this Sharma fellow did not qualify the extent of what he thinks the inflation of the figure is (because he would look pretty stupid if he did)....neither did he trump up the importance of GDP (thankfully) since there are far more important underlying metrics which are definitely improving.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

Well GDP growth rate is not dependent on the "inflation" of the base GDP figure given the "discrepancies" that exist in the current estimates that will only be addressed over time as the data series fills out in the coming years.

We should not take such comments of "inflation" of GDP too seriously given its a new methodology in play right now that has caused a series break and is thus vulnerable to various errors that is only natural. Thats why this Sharma fellow did not qualify the extent of what he thinks the inflation of the figure is (because he would look pretty stupid if he did)....neither did he trump up the importance of GDP (thankfully) since there are far more important underlying metrics which are definitely improving.

Its kind of amusing that members on this thread are so gullible to think that Morgan Stanley is questioning India's GDP numbers, when infact he is stating that India's GDP gets too much attention.

The little delusions some people derive their reality from