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[HinduFacist]

100% do not vote. Voting is around 60-65%.

In a multi cornered contest whoever takes 30-32% is a winner.

For e.g. in 2014 LS election BJp gets 42% of votes but sweeped by taking 72/80 seats.

Math Samajh main aaya Babua!

This is assuming 100% muslims vote for SP

Muslim vote is split between SP and BSP and few independent candidates.

 

[Ashesh]

A pic(s) from Fathepur Rally which Modi Ji going to address at 1:00 PM:

100% do not vote. Voting is around 60-65%.

In a multi cornered contest whoever takes 30-32% is a winner.

Apply this logic to yourself. 30% ain't gonna vote in Election today for SP-INC.

BJP can make inroads into Yadav Heartland today.

 

[HinduFacist]

Apply this logic to yourself. 30% ain't gonna vote in Election today for SP-INC.

BJP can make inroads into Yadav Heartland today.

Yadav vote will always go to SP in state election. Jadav vote to BSP.

BJP has to worry about the rest of the votes.

 

[Tridibans]

100% do not vote. Voting is around 60-65%.

In a multi cornered contest whoever takes 30-32% is a winner.

For e.g. in 2014 LS election BJp gets 42% of votes but sweeped by taking 72/80 seats.

Math Samajh main aaya Babua!

You seem confused.

BJP got 42% in LS 2014. Even if it loses 10% its VS will be 32%. Plus 2% of its allies means NDA at 34%.

BSP will fetch atleast 25-27% (Jatav dalits, Muslims, some upper castes). At best, SP-Cong alliance will get 30-32%.

No way SP is forming government this time around. Either it will be BJP or a hung assemble. (who knows Mayawati may even give outside supp

 

[Ashesh]

You seem confused.

BJP got 42% in LS 2014. Even if it loses 10% its VS will be 32%. Plus 2% of its allies means NDA at 34%.

BSP will fetch atleast 25-27% (Jatav dalits, Muslims, some upper castes). At best, SP-Cong alliance will get 30-32%.

No way SP is forming government this time around. Either it will be BJP or a hung assemble. (who knows Mayawati may even give outside supp

Mayawati is the Dark Horse in this election. BJP and BSP are in neck to neck fight in Kanpur Dehat & Auriya. BJP is leading in Lucknow.

 

[Tridibans]

Mayawati is the Dark Horse in this election. BJP and BSP are in neck to neck fight in Kanpur Dehat & Auriya. BJP is leading in Lucknow.

After this phase, BSP's bastions are over. In eastern UP (Varanasi, Ghazipur, Allahabad, etc) its BJP vs SP. In north-east UP bordering Nepal/ Bihar, its BJP alone.

So while SP strongholds are over in phase 2-3, and BSP strongholds are almost over (phase 1,3,4), BJP is yet to enter its main strongholds of eastern/ N.E UP (phase 1,4,5,7).


Phase 1 (BJP stronghold ) moderate BJp performance/ strong BSP showing
Phase 2 ( SP/INC stronghold ) Very good performance by BJP

Phase 3 (SP/INC stronghold) Till now it seems BJP is leading/ BSP second

Phase 4,5,7 ( BJP stronghold)

Phase 6 BJP will need to do badly to lose this as it is weakest for SP/INC.

 

[Kathin_Singh]

A pic(s) from Fathepur Rally which Modi Ji going to address at 1:00 PM:

Apply this logic to yourself. 30% ain't gonna vote in Election today for SP-INC.

BJP can make inroads into Yadav Heartland today.

MODIs Rally in Bihar election

And what was the RESULT of these big rallies??

You seem confused.

BJP got 42% in LS 2014. Even if it loses 10% its VS will be 32%. Plus 2% of its allies means NDA at 34%.

BSP will fetch atleast 25-27% (Jatav dalits, Muslims, some upper castes). At best, SP-Cong alliance will get 30-32%.

No way SP is forming government this time around. Either it will be BJP or a hung assemble. (who knows Mayawati may even give outside supp

Compare state eleciton of 2012, When BJp got only 15%. Even if BJp gains 10%, It is still 25%.
Ab kaisa raha ?

Phase 1 (BJP stronghold ) lacklustre BJp performance/ strong SP showing
Phase 2 ( SP/INC stronghold ) Disaster for BJP

Phase 3 (SP stronghold) BJp BSp non-entity here.

Phase 4,5,7 ( None stronghold) Since when Bundelkhand was BJp strong hold?

You stand corrected!

https://twitter.com/x/status/833240156911988736

https://twitter.com/x/status/833241052915970048

 

[Ashesh]

MODIs Rally in Bihar election

And what was the RESULT of these big rallies??

TO GET BIHAR LIKE RESULT; MAHA THAGBHANDAN IS NEEDED I.E. SP-INC-BSP. SP-INC CAN'T REPEAT BIHAR.

 

[Soumitra]

How should you, an Adarsh Liberal, react to Uttar Pradesh election results

ByAmit Kelkar
Posted on February 19, 2017


Uttar Pradesh is a big state and so much is at stake over who wins there. As the state goes into the third phase of polling, most reports suggest that the state can throw up any kind of result on March 11.

Now as an Adarsh Liberal, this is not an envious situation to be in. You want things to be in black and white. For example, you are intellectual and everyone else disagreeing with you is a troll. This is how simple things should be. Not this uncertainty about what happens in Uttar Pradesh and how are you supposed to feel.

However, there is a cheat-sheet that can help you with coming up with reactions once the Uttar Pradesh results are announced. Please follow this algorithm to remain a liberal intellectual:

If BJP loses badly and is pushed to hopeless third position (doesn’t matter who is first):

Modi has lost the moral right to govern. Bihar had destroyed the Modi wave, and now Uttar Pradesh has destroyed the brand Modi. Being ruled by a government that has lost popular support is nothing but EMERGENCY. Mid-term elections must be called right away. Intolerance is rising. Zinc is blasting. Tigers are being killed. OMG I AM DEAD. *make the next peg, party time!*

If BJP is runner up, and SP-Congress wins:

This is victory of secularism. Akhilesh Yadav is Indian of the Year 2017. This is ‘coming of age’ of Rahul Gandhi. Priyanka Gandhi has nice dimples. Economic Times should win Pulitzer Prize. And obviously, Modi should resign.

If BJP is runner up, and BSP wins:

Dalit-Muslim combine will defeat Hindutva in 2019 too. We need reservations in media because media didn’t give BSP a chance. We also need reservations in private sector, cricket team, movies, and on Twitter (the caste shit should hit the fan and BJP supporters must be provoked into making anti-Dalit and anti-reservation remarks). Rahul Gandhi is a failure (unless Congress wins Punjab, in which case ‘coming of age’ of Rahul Gandhi should be tried, but only after Mayawati is sworn in and things have settled down a bit).

If there is hung assembly with all parties similarly placed:

Call up someone like Nira Radia. Start thinking of a deal for securing BSP-SP-Congress government. More than op-eds, lobbying is needed. And yes, it’s a defeat of BJP when compared to 2014 general elections, so you may write something on that.

If there is hung assembly with BJP being the single largest party:

Re-run the articles you wrote after 2014 general elections blasting the ‘First Past The Pole’ electoral system. Insist how the majority voted against BJP. Call up someone like Nira Radia as well as someone like Amar Singh. Check WhatsApp messages from Maneka Gandhi and Varun Gandhi.

If BJP alliance wins a simple majority:

Check the vote percentage. If they lost vote percentage compared to the 2014 general elections in the state, everyone write at least three articles highlighting this. Write articles on how BJP may split because there is no unanimity over who should be the Chief Minister. Also, write that BJP has become an election winning machine with no focus on governance and development.

If BJP sweeps the elections with huge majority:

*abuse BJP supporters online and call them trolls* *unfollow and unfriend Economic Times journalists* *make the next peg, you must forget this happened.*

 

[HinduFacist]

https://twitter.com/x/status/833240156911988736

https://twitter.com/x/status/833241052915970048

The next phase is "Yadav" ilaka. So obviously the only way to make them cover over to the BJP is Hindutva and hence this speech.

Its a most pragmatic approach.

 

[skyisthelimit]

Tu pagal hai kya? Phase 3 is in "Yadavland" region of UP. Only credible challange to SP is SP itself under rebels.

In 2012 SP won 55 seats out of 69 seats.Challange before Akhilesh Yadav is whether he gets support like his father used to get among Yadavs in this region.

Pagal nahi hu. But being a bit radical optimistic.
Let us see, we will all know on 11th Match anyways.

Aap kisko support kar rahe hoon?

In Bihar too, people over here were saying BJP is gonna form next government. Don't they?

Caste equations are in favour of SP.

I would surely agree with you, if GA would have had BSP with them.
In Bihar we all knew, RJD+JD and Cong was too much for BJP, its like 3 parts against 1 part.

Last line in your comment is one of the reasons, what keeps states such as UP Bimaru and backward.

 

[Kathin_Singh]

TO GET BIHAR LIKE RESULT; MAHA THAGBHANDAN IS NEEDED I.E. SP-INC-BSP. SP-INC CAN'T REPEAT BIHAR.

Half baked project of Demonetization has added fuel to fire.

Core vote bank of BJP i.e. traders and small businessmen not happy with it.

No need of Maha-GathBanthan. Even alone SP would have give BJP equal fight.

Pagal nahi hu. But being a bit radical optimistic.
Let us see, we will all know on 11th Match anyways.

Aap kisko support kar rahe hoon?

I would happy if BJP wins.

But sadly,BJP is not going to win it.

 

[skyisthelimit]

Without verifying Ground Reports he tells BJP is winning & then ask for $$$. My problem with him is that he shouldreport after verifying Ground Reports.



Even I hope so. Jaats, Small Business Community and Farmers have deserted BJP.



He's making money from Bhakt's by initially telling it's BJP sweeping and then backtracks.

Maybe true. We all have opinion.
We will see on 11th March.
Eventually people who donate will also realize and agree with your point.

Even if Y-M are saying it, Y-M are enough to win this election.

Y-M constitutes 30% of votes in UP.

In 2012 election, SP garnered only 29% of total votes and still won 225 seats.

Now who is laughing ?

So CM with 29% votes acceptable and is progressive, development model
a PM with 31% votes not acceptable and is backward, non lutyens, communal.

hehehe Liberal Media and Opposition Logic.

 

[Kathin_Singh]

I would surely agree with you, if GA would have had BSP with them.
In Bihar we all knew, RJD+JD and Cong was too much for BJP, its like 3 parts against 1 part.

Last line in your comment is one of the reasons, what keeps states such as UP Bimaru and backward.

SP and BSP are the north and south pole of politics. They would commit suicide if they ever form coalition. Jatavs would junk BSP and Yadavs would junk SP.

So CM with 29% votes acceptable and is progressive, development model
a PM with 31% votes not acceptable and is backward, non lutyens, communal.

hehehe Liberal Media and Opposition Logic.

I am not a representative of so called Liberal media. What is this Lutyens and non Lutyens shit!

The next phase is "Yadav" ilaka. So obviously the only way to make them cover over to the BJP is Hindutva and hence this speech.

Its a most pragmatic approach.

Pragmatic nahi ye Hataasha ki Nishaani hai !..

BJP abandoned the VIKAS agenda and riding the good old polarisation horse.

 

[HinduFacist]

Pragmatic nahi ye Hataasha ki Nishaani hai !..

BJP abandoned the VIKAS agenda and riding the good old polarisation horse.

You are free to see what you WANT to see.

BJP policy is to have Different strokes for different folks.