Indian economy will overtake Japan, trail the US by a very slim margin by 2030
MUMBAI: India is set to become the fastest growing major economy in the world by 2012 and will be third largest by GDP-size in the next two decades, behind China and the USA, a global study by British banking giant Standard Chartered said.
"India would have overtaken Japan and will be trailing the US by a slim margin by 2030. China would be at a comfortable number one position," StanChart's Head of India Research, Samiran Chakraborty, said citing the findings of the Super-Cycle Report here today.
The country's contribution to global GDP will go up to 10 per cent of the total pie of approximately $600-trillion while China's will be 24 per cent, he added.
StanChart expects the country to grow at an annual 9.3 per cent for the next two decades and the per capita income of Indians will shoot up to $7,000 by 2030 from the current $1,000, he added.
The world is currently growing through the third super cycle -- a period of sustained high economic growth driven by a particular country -- which will go till 2030, and India and China will be the biggest beneficiaries from the current cycle, Chakraborty said.
The previous two super cycles were 1870-1913 (led by the US) and 1946-1973 (led by Japan).
For India, the biggest positive would be the conducive demographics and the country will continue to grow on the domestic demand front rather than being an export hub like some of its Asian peers, Chakraborty said.
The biggest risks for the expectations to not come true, are a collapse of China, confirming to theories of its growth being a bubble; the US going into a 10-year moratorium like Japan and protectionism gaining currency, he said.
India to be world's fastest growing economy by 2012: StanChart - The Economic Times
MUMBAI: India is set to become the fastest growing major economy in the world by 2012 and will be third largest by GDP-size in the next two decades, behind China and the USA, a global study by British banking giant Standard Chartered said.
"India would have overtaken Japan and will be trailing the US by a slim margin by 2030. China would be at a comfortable number one position," StanChart's Head of India Research, Samiran Chakraborty, said citing the findings of the Super-Cycle Report here today.
The country's contribution to global GDP will go up to 10 per cent of the total pie of approximately $600-trillion while China's will be 24 per cent, he added.
StanChart expects the country to grow at an annual 9.3 per cent for the next two decades and the per capita income of Indians will shoot up to $7,000 by 2030 from the current $1,000, he added.
The world is currently growing through the third super cycle -- a period of sustained high economic growth driven by a particular country -- which will go till 2030, and India and China will be the biggest beneficiaries from the current cycle, Chakraborty said.
The previous two super cycles were 1870-1913 (led by the US) and 1946-1973 (led by Japan).
For India, the biggest positive would be the conducive demographics and the country will continue to grow on the domestic demand front rather than being an export hub like some of its Asian peers, Chakraborty said.
The biggest risks for the expectations to not come true, are a collapse of China, confirming to theories of its growth being a bubble; the US going into a 10-year moratorium like Japan and protectionism gaining currency, he said.
India to be world's fastest growing economy by 2012: StanChart - The Economic Times
