Wednesday, February 07, 2007
India to face decline in farm output
By Iftikhar Gilani
NEW DELHI: India is poised for another year of declining food production that will further push up prices of cereals and edible oils for the second consecutive year as the government has admitted a drop in their production in the second advanced official estimates for 2006-07 released here on Tuesday.
The total cereal production is estimated to be 194.65 million tonnes, nearly half a million tonnes less than the final estimates for 2005-06. It may actually go down much further as the estimates of wheat production included in the calculations do not take into account the hot spell that made the agriculture secretary sound alarm bells of low outputs.
The official estimates still show wheat production going up from 69.35 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 72.5 million tonnes in 2006-07. The government has, in fact, tried to paint a rosy picture of the total foodgrain production going up as compared with last year, by adding up figures for lentils in which India is always surplus. The estimate of 209.17 million tonnes, however, is still just 580,000 tonnes more than the final estimates of 2005-06. Much worse is the edible oil scenario as the oilseed production is estimated to fall by 4.38 million tonnes -- from 27.98 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 23.6 million tonnes this fiscal, mainly because of the sharp decline of 3.5 million tonnes in groundnut. Rice production is also down from 91.79 million tonnes last year to 90.13 million tonnes while the coarse cereals also recorded a drop from 34.06 million tonnes to 32.02 million tonnes during the period. The story is other way round when it comes to cash crops as the official estimates show a big jump in sugarcane production from 281.172 million tonnes in 2004-06 to 315.528 million tonnes while cotton production is also estimated to go up from 18.5 to 20.964 million bales this year. Jute production is also up from 10.84 to 11.39 million bales.
Critics say the government cannot take comfort by adding up lentils, whose production is estimated to go up from 13.39 million tonnes to 14.52 million tonnes, to show a slight increase in total foodgrain production as they point out that prices of lentils had skyrocketed last year despite high production and, moreover, the reality will bite further if the government's wheat estimates go awry because of the hot spell.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\02\07\story_7-2-2007_pg5_12
India to face decline in farm output
By Iftikhar Gilani
NEW DELHI: India is poised for another year of declining food production that will further push up prices of cereals and edible oils for the second consecutive year as the government has admitted a drop in their production in the second advanced official estimates for 2006-07 released here on Tuesday.
The total cereal production is estimated to be 194.65 million tonnes, nearly half a million tonnes less than the final estimates for 2005-06. It may actually go down much further as the estimates of wheat production included in the calculations do not take into account the hot spell that made the agriculture secretary sound alarm bells of low outputs.
The official estimates still show wheat production going up from 69.35 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 72.5 million tonnes in 2006-07. The government has, in fact, tried to paint a rosy picture of the total foodgrain production going up as compared with last year, by adding up figures for lentils in which India is always surplus. The estimate of 209.17 million tonnes, however, is still just 580,000 tonnes more than the final estimates of 2005-06. Much worse is the edible oil scenario as the oilseed production is estimated to fall by 4.38 million tonnes -- from 27.98 million tonnes in 2005-06 to 23.6 million tonnes this fiscal, mainly because of the sharp decline of 3.5 million tonnes in groundnut. Rice production is also down from 91.79 million tonnes last year to 90.13 million tonnes while the coarse cereals also recorded a drop from 34.06 million tonnes to 32.02 million tonnes during the period. The story is other way round when it comes to cash crops as the official estimates show a big jump in sugarcane production from 281.172 million tonnes in 2004-06 to 315.528 million tonnes while cotton production is also estimated to go up from 18.5 to 20.964 million bales this year. Jute production is also up from 10.84 to 11.39 million bales.
Critics say the government cannot take comfort by adding up lentils, whose production is estimated to go up from 13.39 million tonnes to 14.52 million tonnes, to show a slight increase in total foodgrain production as they point out that prices of lentils had skyrocketed last year despite high production and, moreover, the reality will bite further if the government's wheat estimates go awry because of the hot spell.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007\02\07\story_7-2-2007_pg5_12