India third largest economy by 2028: CEBR

[djsjs]

any predictions about Indian manufacture in 2028?

 

[xuxu1457]

That is a lot of pounds So per capita income increases from 5k $ to almost 20k $. Almost as good as a European nation like Portugal. I do not know when will India reach that point :/

Who knows, just as 2 years ago many worried about could we pass 2012 the end of the world

 

[WAR-rior]

Well i dont know anything about economics,please explain.....


Please elaborate......

India's GDP is calculated in amount of baskets of goods which inturn is calculated in rupees. Its around 90 trillion INR. Now on basis of this figure your GDPs in PPP and Nominal are calculated by dividing by currency exchange rate.

In PPP, you consider purchasing parity ie. price of an apple in India vis a vis Price in USA(dollors). since in general you get basic stuff in India around 2,3 times cheap compared to Developed world our PPP ration is around 2.5 (p).

In Nominal, you directly consider international rates without considering adjustments. ie. GDP calculated when dealt only in dollors directly.

Hence, GDP (PPP) = GDP(INR)*(p/e)
and, GDP (Nominal) = GDP(INR)*(1/e)

ie. GDP (Nominal) = GDP (PPP)/p

Now, if same concept is applied to growth rates
We calculate real growth rate on GDP(INR). Now its a complex formula mathematically but u just need to understand that nominal growth also depends on currency. So if economy is strong with less debt, your currency will be strong and hence multiplier to real growth will be above 1 and hence more than real growth.

For eg: Chinese nominal growth during its boom was 15-17% with real growth of 10%.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

You are right, banking and financial services are not limited to UK or US any more. However, because of blurring of capital markets, proximity of finance to Industrial centres is important but not a necessity any more. It is as easy and sometime easier for an Indian company to raise money in US and UK than in India. Given that Capital markets in west are more liquid and more sophisticated than in India or China, and given that it would take many years for developing world to have such financial markets as in west, I don't see any imminent threat to finance world in London or New York in near future.

You're forgetting that the conditions in which UK flourished are vanishing. India and China had nationalized banks 20 yers ago- both have allowed domestic private banks to be setup and many-like HDFC, ICICI etc. are doing extremely well. Once that happens, it is cheaper to raise funds here than elsewhere.

 

[WAR-rior]

Of pound sterling

I dont know how is this calculated and on what basis but my understanding of prediction methods basis dont justify above numbers. Simple logic being, you cannot predict nominal GDP coz you simply cannot know what path the currencies are gonna take. Institutes do predict currencies but no prediction has till date come true for emerging nations simply coz lack of stability in the growth pattern. Developing nations are more volatile as compared to developed nations. Also, China has its currency stagnent around a particular number so its possible for China but for India with reforms and high inflow of FDI, currency will gain strength and hence nominal growth mite go to figures of 25%.

Eg: Indian nominal GDP has shrunk as compared to last yr to around 1.8 trillion coz of currency depreciation. If you see real growth has only increased and will keep on increasing. Now if currency goes back to old values of 45-50, The GDP will shoot off directly to around 3 trillion in next 3,4 years for 8-9% real growth.

 

[Sunny009]

Well i dont know anything about economics,please explain.....


Please elaborate......

If our currency remains constant against the dollar, nominal growth of an year would be 9% real growth (your assumption) plus average inflation(6% assumption) for that year.

So increase in GDP year on year would be (9+6) 15% to the previous year.

If currency appreciates, GDP in dollar terms increases and vice versa.

 

[Aramsogo]

When there are 6 billion Indians in 2028 making $2 a day, this will be possible. Jai hind!

 

[Sunny009]

duplicate

 

[WAR-rior]

If our currency remains constant against the dollar, nominal growth of an year would be 9% real growth (your assumption) plus average inflation(6% assumption) for that year.

So increase in GDP year on year would be (9+6) 15% to the previous year.

If currency appreciates GDP in dollar terms increases and vice versa.

ya rite, inflation in one word explains all.

When there are 6 billion Indians in 2028 making $2 a day, this will be possible. Jai hind!

. OK

 

[Jade]

You're forgetting that the conditions in which UK flourished are vanishing. India and China had nationalized banks 20 yers ago- both have allowed domestic private banks to be setup and many-like HDFC, ICICI etc. are doing extremely well. Once that happens, it is cheaper to raise funds here than elsewhere.

HDFC and ICICI may be doing extremely well. But the quantum of financing activity that happens in India is not anywhere near what is happening in US or UK. There are several reason for that and one of them is investor would always consider the following before investing 1) Liquidity of financial markets 2) Low political risk 3) Low credit risk and 4) Low transaction costs. In all these areas both India and China are far behind the west.

Ex: Shanghai Stock exchange is the third largest stock exchange in the word, but also one of the least liquid (50% illiquid). Hence a Chinese company - Alibaba - turned to US to raise its first IPO.

Alibaba turns to the U.S. for IPO

Yes, India and China have improved a lot in recent years. And in this regard India is much ahead of China, but both are yet to catch up with west.

 

[Guynextdoor2]

HDFC and ICICI may be doing extremely well. But the quantum of financing activity that happens in India is not anywhere near what is happening in US or UK. There are several reason for that and one of them is investor would always consider the following before investing 1) Liquidity of financial markets 2) Low political risk 3) Low credit risk and 4) Low transaction costs. In all these areas both India and China are far behind the west.

Ex: Shanghai Stock exchange is the third largest stock exchange in the word, but also one of the least liquid (50% illiquid). Hence a Chinese company - Alibaba - turned to US to raise its first IPO.

Alibaba turns to the U.S. for IPO

Yes, India and China have improved a lot in recent years. And in this regard India is much ahead of China, but both are yet to catch up with west.

No one said it's fully solved. A new slew of banking licenses is on the way. Further relaxation on pension funds and insurance is on the way. The US will always remain on the radar because of the depth of it's capital markets. But I suspect the UK will start waning significantly.

 

[Aramsogo]

^^^^

"Quantum" - mostincorrectly used word by those attempting to sound intelligent.

HDFC and ICICI may be doing extremely well. But the quantum of financing activity that happens in India is not anywhere near what is happening in US or UK. There are several reason for that and one of them is investor would always consider the following before investing 1) Liquidity of financial markets 2) Low political risk 3) Low credit risk and 4) Low transaction costs. In all these areas both India and China are far behind the west.

Ex: Shanghai Stock exchange is the third largest stock exchange in the word, but also one of the least liquid (50% illiquid). Hence a Chinese company - Alibaba - turned to US to raise its first IPO.

Alibaba turns to the U.S. for IPO

Yes, India and China have improved a lot in recent years. And in this regard India is much ahead of China, but both are yet to catch up with west.

"quantum" - most incorrectly used word by dumb people trying to sound intelligent.

Looking at Markit desktop, both ICICI and HDFC have a single-B (as of 25Dec13) implied credit rating. Basically junk credit for a bank. Yeah, "doing extremely well". More Indian BS.

 

[Jade]

No one said it's fully solved. A new slew of banking licenses is on the way. Further relaxation on pension funds and insurance is on the way. The US will always remain on the radar because of the depth of it's capital markets. But I suspect the UK will start waning significantly.

UK will remain significant because

1) Investor always look at investing in portfolio of assets and UK provides a degree of diversification because of its exposure to EU markets
2) I know first hand that major European Companies (Even German companies ) raise funds from UK markets rather than from their host countries given lower transaction costs
3) 40% of UK assets are in fact controlled by US investors and 20% of money in UK capital markets are investments from BRIC; this shows how international UK capital markets are
4) In recent times I have seen even US companies raising money from UK markets. In fact this year US companies raised more money from UK than European/UK companies did.
5) London and New York are tightly integrated as they facilitated trade between US and Europe (World two biggest economies) for last 100 or more years since the industrial revolution. This is not going disappear any time soon. For ex: any tampering with LIBOR will have similar effect in US financial markets as they do in UK financial markets.

 

[Raphael]

This is a dubious report made to pamper the UK's ego. It will take a decade for Brazil to surpass the UK when they've already done so? The UK could surpass Germany in the next two decades? Educated people can only LOL at these farfetched assertions.

The UK may currently have one of the better performing economies in the EU, but:
1. It's only recently that they've managed to turn things around. Not so long ago, they were the 'sick man of Europe'. There's no guarantee its recovery can continue, and certainly none that it can be extrapolated 20 years in the future.
2. Their performance is still worse than Germany. Germany has weathered the recession so well because they have a real, manufacturing economy, and they make real things. Some of the things they make, no one else in the world can.
3. The UK's "demographic strength" is an illusion. The native birth rate is the same as elsewhere in Western Europe, so the figure is inflated by the fecundity of its undesirable, low-IQ sections of the population, who will make no contribution to productivity. France has the same fertility statistics as the UK, but the report (wisely) made no attempt to tout France's prospects, wonder why?

 

[liall]

When there are 6 billion Indians in 2028 making $2 a day, this will be possible. Jai hind!

Say are you retarded?