India’s influence wanes on world stage

[Windjammer]

India’s influence wanes on world stage

Nations lose international influence and power when they are either militarily unprepared or floundering economically. We are still to recover psychologically from the humiliating military defeat inflicted by China in 1962.

THEN…

The 1962 conflict led to an adventurist Field Marshal Ayub Khan seeking to seize Kashmir and failing to do so, in a largely inconclusive conflict in 1965. This conflict had disastrous diplomatic consequences, with the once-friendly Soviet Union seeking the role of a mediator, while readying to supply weapons to Pakistan.

India became a basket case, dependent on the Soviet Union for arms and on the US for IMF assistance, to deal with a balance of payments crisis. With begging bowl in hand, India sought American food aid, as chronic food shortages led people to the verge of starvation.

Things turned for the better when Indian agriculture revived, through a “Green Revolution” spearheaded by then Agriculture Minister C. Subramaniam. The Soviet Union came out in support of an economically self-reliant, rhetorically Left-leaning Indian Government.

The dark shadows of 1962 receded when, backed by the Soviet Union, India emerged victorious, while pitted against a Nixon-Mao-Yahya Khan Axis, in the 1971 Bangladesh conflict. By the early 1990s, however, the Soviet Union collapsed and we had to mortgage our gold reserves to stay afloat.

A malevolent Clinton Administration was prepared to go to any length in pressurising the Russian Federation to end cooperation even in space with India, in a relentless effort to “cap, roll back and eliminate,” India’s nuclear weapons programme. Our prestige sank so low that we were humiliated in an ill-advised contest against Japan for a seat in the UN Security Council in 1997.

It was only when the economic reforms and liberalisation initiated by Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao took effect that India’s economy recovered, for India to withstand global economic sanctions, which the country faced after the nuclear tests of 1998.

A chastened Bill Clinton visited India once he realised that it was pointless to sanction an economically vibrant country. The NDA Government under A. B. Vajpayee observed the fiscal prudence required to not let runaway inflation set in.

The UPA-1 built on all these developments. Global nuclear apartheid against India ended, with India assuming a larger global profile by its participation in forums like G-8, G-20 and BRICS.

…AND NOW

But, the UPA political dispensation still remains wedded to populism and fiscal irresponsibility. Few remember that the economic disaster in 1991 followed a populist loan waiver for farmers by then Prime Minister V.P. Singh.

Now, fiscal deficit has crossed 5 per cent of GDP, and growth is down to 5 per cent levels. A populist Environment Minister brought in regulations destined to inordinately delay project clearances. New investments are becoming scarce, as Indian entrepreneurs seek greener pastures abroad. Every rating agency, foreign investor and foreign government knows that India has become a difficult investment destination.

BRICS FARCE

It is now commonly mentioned that BRICS would be better served if India is replaced by Indonesia, where economic management is prudent and sound.

The current joke is that while corruption is present everywhere in emerging markets, one sees “efficient corruption” in China, but “inefficient corruption” in India!

With the current account deficit at 6.7 per cent of GDP in Q3 of 2012-13, it was ludicrous for New Delhi to be advocating a BRICS Investment Bank. India will be a relatively minor player, given China’s vast reserves and potential. This at a time, when observers believe that we may have to seek a bailout from the Western dominated IMF, whose influence the BRICS Bank is designed to erode.

Reports from Durban that South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma did not bother to meet our Prime Minister, and was busy feting President Xi Jinping and President Putin, are disturbing. Moreover, while other Heads of Government were housed comfortably in Durban, Manmohan Singh was made to stay 40 kilometres away from the Conference venue. Indian prestige and credibility today are at its lowest in recent years.

In Maldives, we have been out-manoeuvred by a wily President Waheed, who skilfully bought insurance from China and Pakistan. On Sri Lanka, we have vacillated in the UNHRC.

In the process, we have gratuitously offended a friendly neighbour and not persuaded public opinion in Tamil Nadu of the merits of our stand.

Moreover, we should ask ourselves whether our diplomacy has really helped a friendly Prime Minister, facing serious challenges from Islamic extremists in Bangladesh.

These issues will hopefully, receive attention, when the Budget session of Parliament resumes.

India

 

[JohnSeb]

So you now want to believe what the Indian media writes

 

[Abingdonboy]

It is now commonly mentioned that BRICS would be better served if India is replaced by Indonesia,

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/centra...nfluence-wanes-world-stage.html#ixzz2Q9LnIAqK

LOL!! And who should replace Russia,South Africa and Brazil? The've all grown significantly LESS than India in the past 2 years- Brazil is barely toughing 0.5% of economic growth ffs!!



Only farce is this article.




No one is saying Indonesia is going to overtake the US within the next 40 years, no one is saying Indonesia is going to be in the top 2 economies in 40 years.

 

[Star Wars]

No one is saying Indonesia is going to overtake the US within the next 40 years, no one is saying Indonesia is going to be in the top 2 economies in 40 years.

When Indonesia invites Wallmart and other stores into their country...they will start saying all that

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I disagree.

All the BRIC nations are gaining influence on a global scale.

Both in absolute and relative terms.

For India specifically, look at the Italian marines issue for example. India successfully won a major diplomatic battle against Italy, and the Italian Foreign Minster had to fall on his own sword.

 

[arp2041]

written By - G. PARTHASARATHY

He has the image of speaking/writing the EXTREMES.

Nevertheless, this article was for domestic consumption, nothing to do with REALITY.

We have many such Experts who try to influence GOI's policy by writing such articles.

Same goes the case for many other nations.

This is what one can call a "Self Bashing Article" whose driving force was to make a CHANGE.

Don't have to read too much into it.

 

[Windjammer]

India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade
Economic Times
Rating agency Standard & Poor's has warned that India is poised to earn the unwanted distinction of becoming the first BRIC nation that may be downgraded to junk status due to worsening growth, but the government insists the economy is on the mend. In an unusually direct reference to what it perceives to be poor quality of the nation's political leadership, S&P has expressed concerns that ballooning government expenses, widening trade deficit and political vacuum could lead to protectionist policies.


India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade, warns Standard & Poor?s - Economic Times

 

[Mike_Brando]

I disagree.

All the BRIC nations are gaining influence on a global scale.

Both in absolute and relative terms.

For India specifically, look at the Italian marines issue for example. India successfully won a major diplomatic battle against Italy, and the Italian Foreign Minster had to fall on his own sword.

i think for the betterment of our future both India and China should put aside their past differences and should work all out to make BRICS as the potential replacement for G-8 group in the near future!just my 2 cents.whats your opinion mate?

 

[Abingdonboy]

India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade
Economic Times
Rating agency Standard & Poor's has warned that India is poised to earn the unwanted distinction of becoming the first BRIC nation that may be downgraded to junk status due to worsening growth, but the government insists the economy is on the mend. In an unusually direct reference to what it perceives to be poor quality of the nation's political leadership, S&P has expressed concerns that ballooning government expenses, widening trade deficit and political vacuum could lead to protectionist policies.


India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade, warns Standard & Poor?s - Economic Times

Posting a 1 year old article, thanks for that!


1 quarter is a long time in econimcs, for get 1 year!! A lot has changed since this alarmist article was written.

 

[arp2041]

India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade
Economic Times
Rating agency Standard & Poor's has warned that India is poised to earn the unwanted distinction of becoming the first BRIC nation that may be downgraded to junk status due to worsening growth, but the government insists the economy is on the mend. In an unusually direct reference to what it perceives to be poor quality of the nation's political leadership, S&P has expressed concerns that ballooning government expenses, widening trade deficit and political vacuum could lead to protectionist policies.


India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade, warns Standard & Poor?s - Economic Times

Jun 12, 2012

Seriously???

Obviously that "MAY" has never happened & "MAY"-2013 is just days away

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

i think for the betterment of our future both India and China should put aside their past differences and should work all out to make BRICS as the potential replacement for G-8 group in the near future!just my 2 cents.whats your opinion mate?

The current uni-polar American world order can't last for much longer. Already you have plenty of countries that do not follow the American line.

The new multi-polar world is inevitable.

And the BRICS will take their places as the major "poles" in this new multi-polar world. Along with America and some European nations, which will have significantly decreased influence.

 

[Koovie]

India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade
Economic Times
Rating agency Standard & Poor's has warned that India is poised to earn the unwanted distinction of becoming the first BRIC nation that may be downgraded to junk status due to worsening growth, but the government insists the economy is on the mend. In an unusually direct reference to what it perceives to be poor quality of the nation's political leadership, S&P has expressed concerns that ballooning government expenses, widening trade deficit and political vacuum could lead to protectionist policies.


India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade, warns Standard & Poor?s - Economic Times

LOL so desperate that you need to post one year old articles?

 

[Windjammer]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

My bad ended up posting the wrong article. !!

Here's the one i intended to post.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa represent about 40 percent of the world’s population and nearly 25 percent of its economic output. Yet momentum of the organized grouping of strong emerging economies could be fading, suggests Harsh V. Pant of King’s College. A major challenge to potential clout of BRICS is China’s dominance: “China’s power makes the other members nervous, leading them to hedge bets by investing in alternative alliances and partnerships even as China’s rapid accretion of economic and political power adds to its own challenges to to make friends,” Pant writes. Manufacturers in emerging economies gripe about contending with China’s currency manipulation, low-cost exports and trade barriers to its own markets. BRICS was supposed to demonstrate power shifting from the West to emerging economies. But four of the members seek equitable relationships and are nervous about serving as a platform for China’s rise. – YaleGlobal

BRICS Not That Sturdy

China dominates BRICS with an economy larger than that of four other members combined

LONDON: With China’s President Xi Jinping planning to make his first foray into international diplomacy since his election at the BRICS annual summit in Durban and his singer wife slated to perform, the organization will hit the headlines. Again, there will be talk about this loose grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa filling the emerging void left by the troubled US and European Union. But yet another summit and ritual show of unity won’t hide the emptiness at the core of BRICS. The strong display of China’s newfound power by its president will only underline the organization’s lopsided nature and lack of actual clout.
Representing around 40 percent of the world’s population and nearly a quarter of its economic output, BRICS does offer promise of clout. The economic profile of the five nations, especially that of China, has continued to grow with suggestions that BRICS collectively could become bigger than the US by 2018 and by 2050 even surpass the combined economies of G7 states.
Yet a major challenge for ongoing influence from BRICS is China’s dominance over the other four members. For all its promise, BRICS has remained a talk shop aspiring for greatness.
The first formal summit meeting was held in Russia in June 2009 with South Africa joining the group in December 2010, changing the nomenclature from BRIC to BRICS. The Yekaterinburg summit called for “a more democratic and just multipolar world order based on the rule of international law, equality, mutual respect, cooperation, coordinated action and collective decision-making of all states.” Since then the joint statements of the various BRICS summits have repeatedly underscored need for a realignment of the post–World War II global order based on the untrammelled supremacy of the US. As the US is preoccupied with internal troubles and the eurozone is mired in a debilitating debt crisis, a vacuum is increasingly being felt in the international system. This presents an opportunity for the BRICS to emerge as major global players. Plans are underway for some joint projects. The New Delhi summit resulted in a proposal to create a joint BRICS development bank that would finance investments in developing nations, and this year’s summit is expected to conclude negotiations for setting up this bank.

But overall momentum for BRICS, a much-hyped initiative, seems to be flagging. Growth-rate estimates for all the BRICS are steadily declining. Fluctuating economic trends, however, are not the leading reason behind the unworkability of the BRICS idea, but rather the structural disparity at the heart of the grouping.
China’s rise has been so fast and so spectacular that others are still trying to catch up. The Chinese economy is not only the second largest in the world but also larger than the economies of the other four members combined. China’s power makes the other members nervous, leading them to hedge bets by investing in alternative alliances and partnerships even as China’s rapid accretion of economic and political power adds to its own challenges to make friends. Given the leverage that China enjoys in BRICS, it should come as no surprise that Beijing has suggested that IBSA – the grouping of democracies India, Brazil and South Africa – be shut down in favor of BRICS.
China’s manipulation of its currency has resulted in significant problems for manufacturing sectors of other emerging powers. India, Brazil and South Africa all have expressed disenchantment with Beijing’s economic policies at various times. New Delhi has even imposed anti-dumping duties on a range of Chinese goods. China’s dominance of the intra-South trade remains overwhelming with other emerging powers struggling to get a share of the pie. Central bankers from Brazil and India spoke against the undervalued yuan in 2009 and 2010 to little effect.
BRICS momentum may be flagging. Growth-rate estimates are declining. Structural disparity is a challenge.
Economic ties between China and Brazil have grown, but so have frictions. China is not viewed as a fair competitor with Brazilian manufacturers accusing China of dumping diverted exports from Europe even as Brazilian manufacturers face steep non-tariff barriers in trying to export to China. Worried about the influx of investment and cheap imports from China, Brazilian manufacturers are losing market share to Chinese counterparts, and Brazil is also wary of China’s growing economic profile in South America, which Brazil considers its own sphere of influence.
Russia and China are united in their aversion to a US-led global political order, but elite distrust of each other remains. Though they coordinate in trying to scuttle western policies, as has been the case on Iran and Syria recently, the partnership is one of convenience. Russia’s failure to develop its Far East has allowed China to gain a toehold in this strategic region and allowed Beijing to define the Asian security landscape. And though China is the largest buyer of Russian conventional weaponry, many in Russia see this as counterproductive: China could emerge as the greatest potential security threat to Russia.
Likewise, Sino-India ties have witnessed a steady deterioration over the last few years on a variety of issues – from land border to maritime disputes. Despite the public pronouncements by the two sides, New Delhi remains skeptical of China’s intentions. Beijing’s refusal to acknowledge India’s rise and a lack of sensitivity on core security interests are leading to pushback. With overall bilateral trade worth $55 billion, India’s trade deficit with China rose to $23 billion in 2012.
Russia and China are united in an aversion to a US-led global political order, but distrust of each other remains.
South Africa’s relations with China are also not as wrinkle-free as so often made out in the popular media. Concerns have been rising that China’s economic power is strangling South African manufacturing while locking up vital resources for years, as the flood of Chinese finished goods to Africa has created a large trade imbalance. Textile mills in South Africa have closed down under the onslaught of inexpensive Chinese imports, leading to public protests. In a somewhat surprising outburst, former South African President Thabo Mbeki had warned that Africa risked becoming an economic colony of China if the growing trade imbalance between the two was not rectified. Though China has its share of supporters in South Africa, its extractive economic policy is leading to growing calls for a more equitable economic relationship.
The fascination with BRICS is partly an offshoot of the discussion on the emerging so-called post-American world. Many commentators argue multipolarity is likely to be the norm. Yet while BRICS may have growing economies, it’s not clear this can translate into power at the global level. Even if the BRICS get their economic act together, the grouping will find it difficult to turn that strength into a unified political force. China’s dominance makes most of the goals articulated by the BRICS states wobbly. The point of this coalition was always to show that the balance of power is shifting toward emerging countries, away from the West’s historical dominance. But a multipolar world isn’t the same as China just trying to tilt the balance of power toward itself.
The narrative surrounding the rise of BRICS is as exaggerated as that of decline for the US. The tectonic plates of global politics are certainly shifting, but their movements are unpredictable. BRICS will remain an artificial construct, merely an acronym coined by an investment banking analyst, for some time to come.

BRICS Not That Sturdy

 

[Contrarian]

I dont get the relevance of this last article @Windjammer.

It is an accepted fact that China is by far the largest economy and influential member of BRIC.

That fact however does not negate the fact that India's influence is also increasing decade on decade in the global arena. And by no means in absolute terms is India's influence low.

 

[manojb]

and in meanwhile .. Sinking like a rock: Slim chances of recovery for Pakistan

Is Pakistan sinking?

P.S. Its 2 day Article!