India, Pakistan playing their ‘Great Game’ Original

[Zeeshan S.]

India, Pakistan playing their ‘Great Game’


NEW DELHI: For long, Pakistan has accused India of fuelling rebellion in Baluchistan. India has vehemently denied any involvement, though it has in recent past and on Monday made statements against Pakistan’s suppression of the rebels.


Pakistan accuses India of using its missions in Afghanistan to train Baluch rebels and arming them. India has reasons to fuel trouble in Pakistan’s biggest province: in the short-run it would keep Pakistan engaged and troubled, and would stymie its ability to focus further on Kashmir. It looks perfectly like the South Asian dog-eat-dog world of counter-intelligence and covert operations.


There has never been any credible evidence to prove Pakistan’s claims, but there is no reason to believe Indian agencies are not interested in Baluch rebels. It is a fact that India for long has been closely watching the situation in Baluchistan due to its strategic location. Not just Pakistan’s richest region in terms of natural resources, the tribal land is also where many of Pakistan’s strategic assets are located. Trouble there should be gladdening to majority in the Indian strategic community who are steeped in the Partition mindset.


A troubled Baluchistan, which it is presently, would be of serious concern to Pakistan. That is where its biggest port project is underway. The Gwadar port, being built with Chinese assistance, would not just be Pakistan’s biggest seaport but also its most important location for naval assets in future. Gwadar is on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, next door to the Strait of Hormuz, a major sea-lane for oil and other cargo. Chagai Hills, where Pakistan conducted the 1998 nuclear tests, is in north-western Baluchistan.


The killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti could have serious long-term repercussions not just in Baluchistan but across South Asia. In Baluch a new martyr is born. Across South Asia, the tremors of a possible redrawing of national boundaries can be felt again. The possibility of Baluchistan disintegrating are distant, but it cannot be ruled out. Given its strategic location and interest of various groups including the Americans in Baluchistan only adds to the possibility of the rebellion remaining robust into the future.

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1049739

 

[Zeeshan S.]

India is now playing what Pakistan used to play, but not much effectively can it contribute. India should really stop this, as Pakistan has temporarily stopped this due to a so called "peace process".

If they really want to play, Pakistan can play this game much effectively due to India's disadvantage of the geographic location of Baluchistan while Pakistan having an advantage of the geographic location of Azad Kashmir, and strong ties with the freedom fighters of Kashmir.

 

[Sid]

The rebellion in Baluchistan will eventually die out. Nawab Akbar Bugti didn't own Baluchistan, he is just a renegade tribal leader of ONE tribe out of many that constitute a 'Baluch' populace. And he's gone now with several rebellion commanders surrendering to the security forces. Rebellion has already been dented. ONLY about ten thousand people attended his funeral which is quite less for a 'great Baluch martyr' and what not the media has been calling him!

At the same time, brute force isn't quite the answer to Baluchistan's ills. There has to be a mix of the carrot and stick policy. Too much of either is simply bad.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Balochis have always been a problem for Pakistan. The Balochi insurrection has been as old as the Independence right from 1948, then in the 70s and so on.

However, the saving grace has been the fact that they being tribal and fierce in the loyalty to their tribe could be easily divided and prevented from doing any serious damage to the integrity of Pakistan.

However, with the advent of TV, and this is a world phenomenon, the so called illiterates and the impoverished are also getting a glimpse of the “outside world”, including the affluent parts of their own country. Hence, dissatisfaction with their lot all over the world is on the rise, Balochistan included. This has also given rise to subnationalism the world over and Balochistan is no exception. This subnationalism is exploited by local satraps and politicians for their good and for the good of “their people”.

Because of the TV and because the Govt (of any country) always likes to highlight their achievement, in Pakistan, the economic wonders of Balochistan including the Gwadar Port obviously must have excited the Balochis and also made them feel that they are being deprived. Because of subnationalism, one fails to see the general good it is doing to the country and instead are overcomed with self pity. Self pity is the basest of emotions and when this seizes the people, it takes on dangerous proportions and insurrection is one of them. Hence, there is this insurrection in Balochistan.

There is also a growing feeling in Pakistan, if one goes by the newspaper reports of Pakistan that all development projects are in favour of the Punjabis. Statistics abound these newspapers leading to this view. There obviously must be some credence or else it would not have made the news. This alienation and the feeling that someone else is benefiting because of other resources makes the situation worse.

Who all are interested in Balochistan, apart from General Musharraf and the Pakistani govt?

India has been mentioned. The only advantage is that it would be a tit for tat for Kashmir. The Chinese presence too would be alarming to India given the Chinese “String of Pearls” pearls strategy that the Chinese have adopted to offset it lack of a blue water navy that is so essential for her to dominate the Indian Ocean. But, India does not have the wherewithal to offset the Chinese presence. India also does not have the finances that are essential to fund a cogent insurrection. The days of one party rule in India are over. Every govt of India has to showcase the improvement that it has done in its tenure or else it is shown the door. All said and done, politicians are thick skinned self preservation animals the world over and more so when they are worried of being shown the door. Being shown the door is like committing suicide since the avenues to self economic enhancement or access to power is denied, at least till the next elections. Therefore, no govt of India can sacrifice “temples of progress and improvement” and worry itself unduly with encouraging and funding insurrections abroad. Neither, does India have rich co-religionist nations to share the bill for funding such insurrections as some others have including having a common goal of spreading the religion world wide or fomenting insurrection in the name of religion.

Therefore, who has the money and the will to do so and who will reap the richest of benefits?

This question has raised some interesting opinions. One such is that it is of intense strategic importance to the US.

The argument goes that the US is neck deep in the Balochistan issue since the TAP oil and gas pipeline is planned to travel through via Afghanistan and Balochistan to the port of Gwadar. Indeed, if Balochistan declares independence with covert US help the border along Balochistan and FATA would be neutralised and Afghanistan would be in a better position to put its house in order so that the pipeline fructifies! If this happens, then the importance of Pakistan will fade as far as the US strategy is concerned and so it is a question of survival for Musharraf to ensure that Balochistan is calmed, but the terrorist threat to Afghanistan kept alive! An independent Balochistan would also be worth the while for the US because Iran will be boxed from both the flanks.

The port of Gwadar is an important issue in the US strategic map. China is assisting Pakistan in developing this port and will be using it as a listening post into US activities in the Middle East as also be able to interfere with the same when it positions some naval effort there. It will also give teeth to the Chinese strategy of "String of Pearls". Already the Chinese have naval facilities in the Myanmar Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal. These two naval facilities of Coco Island and Gwadar will compensate for the weakness of the Chinese Navy of not being a blue water navy to protect its interests in the Indian Ocean, which is very critical since the seaway transport oil to China.

The port of Gwadar is an important issue in the US strategic map. China is assisting Pakistan in developing this port and will be using it as a listening post into US activities in the Middle East as also is able to interfere with the same when it positions some naval effort there. It will also give teeth to the Chinese strategy of "String of Pearls". Already the Chinese have naval facilities in the Myanmar Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal. These two naval facilities of Coco Island and Gwadar will compensate for the weakness of the Chinese Navy of not being a blue water navy to protect its interests in the Indian Ocean, which is very critical since the seaway transport oil to China.

Just a thought.

 

[sparten]

Its also very unlikely Pakistan would let Balochistan go quitly. The US would have to come in directly and that would mean a possible nuclear war.

 

[Jay_]

Its also very unlikely Pakistan would let Balochistan go quitly. The US would have to come in directly and that would mean a possible nuclear war.

Nuclear war with?

 

[sigatoka]

Great games are conducted by great powers whether they be U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Britian or France. India and Pak. are at best fast growing emerging nations on the global scene. It is a decade or so before India actually becomes a global power (if not longer) and few more before Pak. gets there.

 

[sparten]

Pakistan will expend every weapon in its arsenal, to preseve its territorial integrity.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Its also very unlikely Pakistan would let Balochistan go quitly. The US would have to come in directly and that would mean a possible nuclear war.

With the US?

One would require ICBMs.

Pakistan does not have them.

And no country interested in Balochistan will covertly do anything!

It will be like wrestling with shadows.

 

[EagleEyes]

I have seprated the thread. Economic discussion can follow here.

http://www.pakistaniforces.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2009

Continue discussing on the topic. Dont go off topic again.

Thanks.