India loses fastest growing economy tag after sharp growth slowdown

[bhimram]

OMG .... have you applied for political asylum due to persecution by evil Modi ?

What was Demo?
Demo was simply exchanging of notes from one type to another. Deposit the existing cash and use the new currency.

Who were affected by Demo?
Poor people were least affected by it. They have no large cash to deposit, hence no impact. The middle class was little affected by it but all of them deposited their existing notes and moved on.
The Corrupt rich who had unaccounted cash, either earned though illegal means or without paying tax, were brutally affected and rightly so. These people thought it's their right to loot or not pay taxes.

What about non-available of new notes?
Shortage of new notes does NOT MEAN A PERSON LOST HIS CASH. A person who has deposited his existing notes has his monies in the bank for use. The shortage of notes for a little while mainly resulted in bit of cash transactions becoming difficult. People still retained all their money, unless of course, if a person is corrupt and had illegal wealth.

Bottom line: Demo is a huge hit with people and will ensure BJP get another couple of terms.

Good news: 2000 rupee note will be banned soon. Get ready for Demo 2.0, the father of the guy who was crying on Modi will need to get express visa to Mars after that.

 

[Mufflerman]

No matter fastest or not, China is still adding entire indian GDP every 3 years.
Western China, the poorest region in China, is a 2 trillion dollar economy growing at 8%.

China is also adding an entire China as debt every 3 years. Did you know Mr CCP bot?

 

[Dungeness]

This demonetisation, expected slowdown, expected pickup in next quarter, previous quarter being higher than expected....all have nothing to do with that.

Not far from my birthplace, the most heinous things happened to so called "untouchable" people in the 50s and 60s when my parents were just kids.....on a near regular basis. The odd snippet of preserved news sometimes captures the larger "incidents" when word of mouth didn't. Those papers back then were often the only one published, now you have to dig for them at the news-stand....and look for the date they were established to know their heritage.

Now the local district elections have many "untouchable" candidates as well regularly competing. Neither are they staunchly segregated and used as total slaves for what others deem them fit for. Is it perfect, ideal situation today? Nope. Is it a lot better than before? Definitely. Will it be better in future? For sure.

This trend goes for every other non-GDP issue. In the birth year of my mom, 165+ babies out of 1000 born would die in their first year...almost 1 in every 6. In my birth year it was 98 per 1000. My sister birth year around 80 per 1000. It is currently around 35. It will be likely below 25 when I plan to have a kid.

People forget what India as a newer country was like back then....or they just don't talk much about it. Year on year or even decade on decade GDP growth cannot capture what happens on the ground regarding what you describe...given the time scales and issues involved. Nothing really can.

India today definitely has a much better chance of long term sustainable high growth (both economically and socially) than at any other point in its history. That will further improve as time goes by, now that quality of govt and information chains improve. That's all that really matters.

I missed your reply, my apology.

India has not doubt made the tremendous progress over last 70 years since her independence, but as a casual observer of both China and India, I made my comment with a higher expectation for India, and obviously with China as a gauge back in my mind.

We all know India has a great potential, but it would remain just a potential without much more profound social reforms, for which I am pessimistic. Under Modi administration, India is increasingly becoming a religious country, and IMO it is moving backwards in time. In 21st century in this great country, eating certain meat has become a crime? I don't think this is what your founding fathers had in mind when they declared India's independence exactly 70 years ago.

He is saying the total fiscal year growth is 7.1% growth...4 quarters combined came to 7.1% (and thats still fastest major economy growth by year). It just happens to coincide with the 7.1% (predicted for the quarter) in the article.

Also annual and annualised are not equivalent. Its a typo in the article.

Well, Modi did not wait a full year to declare "the fastest growing major economy in the world" status.

 

[That Guy]

Government never came with a paper on how demonetization helped economy. On the contrary it effected India growth rate. Modi should answer this.

I can't believe I'm actually defending Modi here, but demonetization was never about growing the economy. The goal was to combat corruption, as demonetizing the most used notes would make it harder for corrupt individuals to move money, without raising suspicion; It was also about keeping track of the currency in circulation.

This is likely a small part of a much larger plan, which envisions a (physical) cashless society. Such a plan would make it easier for the government to regulate inflation, make sure taxes are paid, and keep track of corruption. In the short term, it is harmful for the economy, because you're quickly demonetizing a widely used currency, which will likely result in losses worth billions of dollars, but in the long term, it will likely bring stability and security to India's economy.

It's honestly a good move, and one that other developing nations could tremendously benefit from, if they themselves implement it.

Pakistan itself has been debating such a move for years now, but corrupt officials have stifled any move towards such a goal.

 

[MultaniGuy]

India is not the fastest growing economy in the world anymore.

 

[That Guy]

India is not the fastest growing economy in the world anymore.

I mean, it's still respectable, and way above Pakistan. :/

Let's not lose sight of things. The only way to beat India is for Pakistan to grow even faster than it.

 

[bhimram]

Under Modi administration, India is increasingly becoming a religious country, and IMO it is moving backwards in time. In 21st century in this great country, eating certain meat has become a crime? I don't think this is what your founding fathers had in mind when they declared India's independence exactly 70 years ago.

What has eating habbits got to do with progress?
What has religion got to do with progress?

There are 1.2 Billion people who are not allowed to eat pork - Strangely no one has any issue with this BUT hindus not eating beef is a huge issue, wonder why?
US does not allow eating of horse. It does not even allow export of horses to other countries for purposes for eating. In fact it jails them - Strangely not an issue when USA does it, but becomes an issue when India does it.
A Billion plus people eat dogs - Strangely I am yet to see these people when in other countries, taking a Golden retrieval to Times Square, cutting it's head off, making mince meat of the body, distributing the meat to on-lookers and carrying the dogs cut head on a parade around New York. Must have missed the memo but isn't USA a much better placed nation with all the restrictions on food?

The arguments border on being pedantic, linking issues that have no relation to each other.
The argument that a religious society can not progress is banal, since progress depends on what kind of religion those people are practicing. You know this to be the truth, yet, you will continue to be banal & pedantic. Unfortunately this forum rules forbid me to be more forthright in my explanation.

 

[rott]

I don't think the Indians are smart enough to get your point

He says, "grow smart, not fast". I just came to the conclusion that a not so smart person would want to grow smart and not grow fast.

 

[MultaniGuy]

I mean, it's still respectable, and way above Pakistan. :/

Let's not lose sight of things. The only way to beat India is for Pakistan to grow even faster than it.

And to have a lower poverty level than india which we have.

 

[bhimram]

I can't believe I'm actually defending Modi here, but demonetization was never about growing the economy. The goal was to combat corruption, as demonetizing the most used notes would make it harder for corrupt individuals to move money, without raising suspicion; It was also about keeping track of the currency in circulation.

This is likely a small part of a much larger plan, which envisions a (physical) cashless society. Such a plan would make it easier for the government to regulate inflation, make sure taxes are paid, and keep track of corruption. In the short term, it is harmful for the economy, because you're quickly demonetizing a widely used currency, which will likely result in losses worth billions of dollars, but in the long term, it will likely bring stability and security to India's economy.

It's honestly a good move, and one that other developing nations could tremendously benefit from, if they themselves implement it.

Pakistan itself has been debating such a move for years now, but corrupt officials have stifled any move towards such a goal.

Spot on.
The tax base after Demo has gone up tremendously.

For the asking for white paper, the cycle is not over yet for govt to release a white paper.
India's financial year ended on March. People & companies are filing their returns. After this is complete, the actual impact of Demo will be known. Only then govt can release a white paper, releasing all facts backed with numbers.

Loads of corrupt people were impacted by Demo.
Even the best connected corrupt people lost nearly 30% getting their money converted using illegal means. Less connected people were completely screwed.

Demo is not working in isolation. What people forget is the new Benami act which the govt has brought in. Coupled with Demo, this will have an impact on corrupt people in India.

 

[MULUBJA]

A fudge up GDP to make Indian the fastest economy last yr to fool the Indian after Modi was elected, Indian real grown in GDP was around 5-6 percent and not around 7-8 percent claimed by Indian government.

And you know that??? Your source of the great inside information?? CPC reeducation camp, I guess.

 

[MULUBJA]

At the time of demonetization, when some media predicted that India's growth rate shall slow down, Many chinese member had started celebration even before the GDP figures of 3rd quarter is out. They got disappointed subsequently. Few cheer leaders have started celebrating once again merely on the GDP figure of 4th quarter GDP data ignoring yearly figure of 7.1 which is still No 1.

 

[bhimram]

Mother fucker we are middle class Businessman only reason we lost everything this is because our rich clients got bankrupt due to your madarchod modi.

Abusing?
Cool, why would your rich clients going bankrupt impact your business? Unless the deals were illegal?

please explain?

I am trying to come up with a logic how a business would go bankrupt by depositing it's existing cash and getting new cash. The logic eludes me, so, please explain.

 

[phancong]

At the time of demonetization, when some media predicted that India's growth rate shall slow down, Many chinese member had started celebration even before the GDP figures of 3rd quarter is out. They got disappointed subsequently. Few cheer leaders have started celebrating once again merely on the GDP figure of 4th quarter GDP data ignoring yearly figure of 7.1 which is still No 1.

All the data don't add up. India real growth rate around 5 percent.

 

[bhimram]

If I am a business man and I have 100 crores in Cash.
Once Demo kicks in, I can deposit the 100 crores in any bank in my account. I will still have 100 crores on my cash with me. for doing business, I can still proceed to give checks or use cash transfer, which are the "legal" way of doing business.

So, I am at a loss to understand why anyone would go bankrupt by Demo?!
I mean, was it difficult to take the cash from your home to Bank to deposit? Had something more urgent to do in those months? Perhaps forgot to deposit the cash? Or may be felt too lay to do it?
Please tell us one valid reason why a genuine, honest business would go Bankrupt by Demo?