India likely to surpass U.S to be world's second largest economy by 2030

[HariPrasad]

India likely to surpass U.S to be world's second largest economy by 2030
Bloomberg|
Jan 09, 2019, 08.49 AM IST
5Comments

By Enda Curran

Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

By Enda Curran

Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

India will likely be larger than the U.S. in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top 5 economies.

"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.

They project trend growth for India to accelerate to 7.8 percent by the 2020s while China’s will moderate to 5 percent by 2030 reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.

Asia’s share of global GDP, which rose to 28 percent last year from 20 percent in 2010, will likely reach 35 percent by 2030 -- matching that of the euro area and U.S. combined.

Here are some other findings from Standard Chartered’s economists:

• Waning reform momentum in emerging markets weighs on productivity growth.

• The end of the quantitative easing era may mean more pressure on economies to reform and revive productivity trends.

• The middle-class is at a tipping point, with a majority of the world’s population entering that income group by 2020.

• Middle-class growth driven by urbanization and education should help counter the effects of the rapid population aging trend in many economies, including China.
  
  //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67448036.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[New World]

Why Pakistan is not in the list? we have already crossed +1 Trillion dollar mark.

 

[manga]

Why Pakistan is not in the list? we have already crossed +1 Trillion dollar mark.

There are many countries with 1 trillion mark. What is so special about it to feature in top 10 ?

 

[N.Siddiqui]

Asia’s share of global GDP, which rose to 28 percent last year from 20 percent in 2010, will likely reach 35 percent by 2030 -- matching that of the euro area and U.S. combined.

Here are some other findings from Standard Chartered’s economists:

PPP GDP is a parity, not the real thing, get the nominal GDP, go figure.


BTW India is back at 7th spot as of now in nominal GDP.



France back at No.6 in GDP rankings, India slips to No.7 again

France has replaced India to retain its spot as the sixth largest economy in the world. But the scenario could reverse next year.
Last Updated: November 22, 2018


France has reclaimed the spot of the sixth largest economy in the world, pushing India to the seventh spot again. As per IMF's October numbers, the French economy is valued at $2.79 trillion and Indian economy at $2.69 trillion.

But the scenario could reverse next year. The IMF estimates that India would again be the sixth largest economy by GDP in 2019, valuing at $2.95 trillion. France's economy in 2019 is expected to be at $2.84 trillion.

In July this year, a World Bank report stated that the Indian economy had become the world's sixth-biggest, pushing France to seventh spot.

India's GDP was valued at $2.59 trillion at the end of 2017, while the French economy stood at $2.58 trillion.

As of 2018, the top ten economies of the world are: US $20.51 trillion followed by China at second spot with $13.45 trillion, Japan at $5.07 trillion, Germany at $4.03 trillion, UK at $2.81 trillion, France at $2.79 trillion, India at $2.69 trillion, Italy at $2.09 trillion, Brazil at $1.91 trillion and Canada at $1.73 trillion.

According to IMF's projections for 2019, India is likely to be the fifth largest economy in the world surpassing both the UK and France.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted India to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2018 and 7.8 per cent in 2019. The IMF has predicted the world's economy to grow at 3.9 per cent over the next year.

In a new report titled "The World in 2050," consulting firm PwC projects that India would be the second largest economy in the world with a share of 15 per cent in the world economy. India is predicted to surpass the US economy by the year 2040. This would make India the second largest economy in the world after China.

India is currently the fastest growing economy of the world . But, India witnessed slowdown in six successive quarters beginning from June 2016.
The reasons for slowdown have been attributed to the increase in oil prices, demonetisation and introduction of goods and services tax (GST).

France, on the other hand, had experienced virtual zero growth between 2012 and 2014, with the French economy expanding by 0 per cent in 2012, 0.8 per cent in 2013 and 0.2 per cent in 2014.
French economy's growth picked up in 2015 when it posted a growth of 0.8 per cent and a growth of 1.1 per cent for 2016, to a growth of 2.2 per cent for 2017. Currently French economy is growing at 2.1 per cent in 2018.


https://www.businesstoday.in/top-st...gs-india-slips-to-no7-again/story/293271.html

 

[maximuswarrior]

Even if India or any developing country for that matter became the number one economy of the world it has zero meaning. Poverty, inequality, economic disparity and wealth distribution are the main indicators. None of which are at par with most developed countries.

 

[I S I]

There are many countries with 1 trillion mark. What is so special about it to feature in top 10 ?

Why Pakistan is not in the list? we have already crossed +1 Trillion dollar mark.

Many African countries already got malnutrition kids. What makes India to be on TOP?

 

[New World]

There are many countries with 1 trillion mark. What is so special about it to feature in top 10 ?

I'm talking about present time and Egypt's PPP is around 1.2 Trillion dollars and Pakistan's PPP is around 1.1 Trillion dollar...

in 2030 Egypt's projected PPP is 8.2 Trillion dollar, so where is Pakistan??

 

[Mage]

India Stronk

 

[maximuswarrior]

Many African countries already got malnutrition kids. What makes India to be on TOP?

This is all chest thumping. The "we are great" madness. The whole world knows how great India really is. These numbers mean nothing. When more than 400 million people don't have a roof over their head or three meals a day and the divide between extremely rich and extremely poor is like day and night there is nothing to brag about.

 

[Mage]

in 2030 Egypt's projected PPP is 8.2 Trillion dollar, so where is Pakistan??

Simple. Pakistan's economy isn't expected to grow that much. According to the projection it would be below 6.8 trillion.

 

[HariPrasad]

India likely to surpass U.S to be world's second largest economy by 2030
Bloomberg|
Jan 09, 2019, 08.49 AM IST
5Comments

By Enda Curran

Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

By Enda Curran

Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

India will likely be larger than the U.S. in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top 5 economies.

"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.

They project trend growth for India to accelerate to 7.8 percent by the 2020s while China’s will moderate to 5 percent by 2030 reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy’s size.

Asia’s share of global GDP, which rose to 28 percent last year from 20 percent in 2010, will likely reach 35 percent by 2030 -- matching that of the euro area and U.S. combined.

Here are some other findings from Standard Chartered’s economists:

• Waning reform momentum in emerging markets weighs on productivity growth.

• The end of the quantitative easing era may mean more pressure on economies to reform and revive productivity trends.

• The middle-class is at a tipping point, with a majority of the world’s population entering that income group by 2020.

• Middle-class growth driven by urbanization and education should help counter the effects of the rapid population aging trend in many economies, including China.
  
  //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67448036.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

This projection simply mean that India will rise by over 4 times from its Current PPP 11 TR USd. It is a 12.25% rise on YOY basis. China will rise by almost 2.7 time from current PPP level of 24 TR USD (Please correct me if I am Wrong). This is a 8.6% rise on YOY basis. US will rise by less than twice. This is a rise of 6.8% on YOY basis. By this rate , India will equal china's GDP in 22 years fron now i.e in 2040. In 2041 India will surpass china. i.e by 2041, India should be No 1 Economy of the world in PPP.

BTW India is back at 7th spot as of now in nominal GDP.

There is a very narrow gap between No 5,6 and 7. Position keeps on changing with even a minor variation in currency value against USD. By the year end , we shall be No atleast no 6 if not 5.

PPP GDP is a parity, not the real thing, get the nominal GDP, go figure.

Tell this to your mate who says that Pakistan Economy is 1.1 TR USD. Tell him that it is not even 1/4th.

Why Pakistan is not in the list? we have already crossed +1 Trillion dollar mark.

 

[Mage]

Tell this to your mate who says that Pakistan Economy is 1.1 TR USD. Tell him that it is not even 1/4th.

It's GDP PPP. Pakistan's GDP PPP is 1.1 trillion USD. Although their growth rate is abysmal.

There is a very narrow gap between No 5,6 and 7. Position keeps on changing with even a minor variation in currency value against USD. By the year end , we shall be No atleast no 6 if not 5.

India will easily overtake Germany and Japan too in 4-5 years due to it's size. But after that it would be very hard.

 

[HariPrasad]

This is all chest thumping. The "we are great" madness.

This is not something we are saying about ourselves. This is said by Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann. So it is not chest thumping as your ill logic derives the conclusion out of the Article.

The whole world knows how great India really is. These numbers mean nothing. When more than 400 million people don't have a roof over their head or three meals a day and the divide between extremely rich and extremely poor is like day and night.

The whole world know that how fast we have reduced poverty which is currently in single digit. We are providing Houses for all by 2022. We have biggest health care scheme for 550 million people covered in it. If i state some facts here, many people will get fever. People have underestimated us but we have always proved them wrong. What we are doing for our people and poor, no other country in the world can even imagine in their dream.So do not bluff without knowledge. You may be thinking that you are very smart and you can bluff anything but what these economist has said is said after study. There are enough material from world bank and IMF to show how fast have we reduced poverty. We are in next phase to provide Electricity and Houses to our poor. Simply bluffing will not help.

It's GDP PPP. Pakistan's GDP PPP is 1.1 trillion USD. Although their growth rate is abysmal.

India will easily overtake Germany and Japan too in 4-5 years due to it's size. But after that it would be very hard.

Atleast this study of Standard charter economist doen't say this. It says that India will surpass US by about 30% margin by 2030 so may be India will match US in 2025 or 2026. To surpass China, other two decades will be required.

 

[Mage]

Atleast this study of Standard charter economist doen't say this. It says that India will surpass US by about 30% margin by 2030 so may be India will match US in 2025 or 2026. TO surpass China, other two decades will required.

Be consistent. If you are talking about PPP then India has already overtaken Japan and Germany. And it might overtake US.

If you are talking about nominal then India will overtake Japan and Germany in 4-5 years. Then who knows how long it would take to overtake US.

 

[HariPrasad]

Be consistent. If you are talking about PPP then India has already overtaken Japan and Germany. And it might overtake US.

If you are talking about nominal then India will overtake Japan and Germany in 4-5 years. Then who knows how long it would take to overtake US.

What you say is exactly correct. I am very consistent. When I wrote India being No 5 and 6, it was in response of post of one poster who quoted that india became no 7 (In Nominal). I responded him. I am very much consistent.