India is sitting on Half Trillion $$ in Foreign exchange Reserves Tonight

[Nilgiri]

AT LAST he gets it.

Welcome home, champ.

It's important you let people (esp those you trust) learn from being out in pasture a bit. Give it time etc etc.

Don't steer them to and fro too hard!

 

[Joe Shearer]

Who was claiming to be a superpower by 2020?

Dr. Kalam.

You wouldn't even begin to understand.

That low man goes on adding one to one,
His hundred's soon hit:
This high man, aiming at a million,
Misses an unit.

We will take all your wealth and enslave all Bollywood fake beauties.

No more desperate starlets trying to get in and get their share of the booty? Oh, policy changed then.

Why the anger? Failed your screen-test?

russia is also sitting on more than indian reserves and have much less population but that not make them economic power

Quite right.

They are failing; their strength is now reduced to their mineral reserves.

They are not India.

You need to get your equivalencies worked out clearly.

it's actually $2200. Meanwhile it is $1450 for Pakistan. Lol


Don't go bursting their propaganda. India's external public debt is only 20% of its total external debt while the same is 80% in case of Pakistan. Lol.

There is no need to compare with anyone else. Please stop thinking that our success or failure depends on competing with another nation.

It's the same. Debt is debt, no matter it's sovereign debt, or private debt. When repayment is needed, it will be paid in USD.

I owe some money to others. Please step forward and pay those for me.

It's important you let people (esp those you trust) learn from being out in pasture a bit. Give it time etc etc.

Don't steer them to and fro too hard!

I never tried steering anyone. Just held on to what I felt was right and wrong. The economics of it was a bonus for my point of view; it sprang from the essential lack of intellect in a gathering of the single-minded, one-track thought process of the exclusivists, who have only the disenfranchisement of one religious group as their raison d'etre. How can these run a country?

Do you not understand english? I said my government is little less indebted which is true as sovereign guaranteed public debt is just over $100 billion. Private entities securing external loan in most cases the interest rate is actually dependent on their financial health. For example Reliance with its credit rating of BBB+ (S&P) avails cheaper loans than even GOI.



A private entity would stop paying back loan only when it is not in pink of health as such unemployment is eventuality. What exactly is GOI is getting in return for saving such companies. India is market economy as such people will find alternate jobs in other competing companies. It is not like all private companies would go under all at the same time. It is the risk that is attributed to company and its lenders and not GOI. If lender has to sell property to recover its loan (if not all) then so be it but GOI is not liable in any way.

In my opinion, it is a waste of time arguing in detail with such a post; it seeks merely to score a debating point, and has no real world significance.

why banya talking about money all of a sudden they should be talking about how well train and supa their surmas are and how they will kick cheenis ***! but no for some reason banyas talking ablut money!!

Can you write a single post without ethnic abuse? Just curious.

That is factually incorrect. Pakistan's GDP per capita is $1482 and india's is $2010:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=BM

At last, some incontrovertible proof. Well done.

All this taunting going on this thread, compared to us Indian economy is doing significantly better, we who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

Our PM (he has no choice) is busy literally begging lenders and world community to aid developing countries like ours due to Covid and existing pressures. The purpose also is largely to bolster our forex reserves that to this day are propped up by loans. Compare that to Indian burgeoning reserves that are their own. So let’s stay humble and work hard, taunting isn’t going to knock them down a peg or help us.

Very true, but our keyboard warriors also need to learn some humility. This is not about competing with Pakistan; this is about doing well on our own, by absolute, not relative, standards. If anything, we should rally to the aid of our neighbours, and build dependencies that will help to reduce the totally irrational mutual hostility.

Your post makes sense for all of us, not simply for posts from one nationality.

lol, exactly in case of pakistan state.
you must question your army cum government you know

Not needed.

Let us not discuss others. Our success or failure is not a comparative success or failure. Let us not respond to baiting.

The official figures for the 2019 GDP per capita figures have not been released yet. You have clicked on the projected figures. Here are the official confirmed GDP per capita data:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD

india's GDP per capita is 1.37× greater than that of Pakistan. You need to have a greater GDP per capita of a factor of 4.8x before the economic difference is too great to be bridged within 30-50 years. That means india's GDP per capita has to increase by more than 340% and Pakistan's has to decrease by 10% before the economic gap is unbridgeable. Between 1950-2006, Pakistan had a higher GDP per capita than india. Between 2007-present, india's GDP per capita has been higher. With the WOT finishing, CPEC and the emergence of other similar initiatives, within 10 to 20 years, Pakistan's economic growth will increase exponentially and most likely propel it to economic heights never witnessed before in Pakistan.

And why not? It would be a happy day for the world to see the per capital income in one country rise so much. Why would this make a difference to others trying to eradicate poverty?

Oh My Gawd! The 10x has become reversed

Just ignore stupid posts and members making them consistently.

So many delusional Indians.little beams of sunshine, who run down others without doing anything themselves, and who talk about others without looking at themselves.

Indias economy in a deep sense of coma and the little goblins sitting behind the keyboards in Indian call centers want us to believe they are a world economic superpower. Keep believing your press and government - we the sane society know the reality of the situation.

Lockdown has completely flat lined them.

Irony just went on the ventilator.

Our army voluntarily reduced its budget last year. Your army purchased billions of $ stuff almost 5 time the budget of Pak military.

And....?

Your point being?

 

[vi-va]

I owe some money to others. Please step forward and pay those for me.

You don't get it. Your so called "others", are foreign investors. India companies can NOT just default without any severe consequence. They will sue you either in India court, or Hague if the money is big enough.

If you lose the case in Hague, you better pay. Otherwise, they can seize your property oversees as well, like your foreign exchange.

Those investors like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Sequoia Capital, Carlyle Group, or Chinese Fosun International are not vegetarians. They love flesh, and flesh only.

 

[Robbie]

Well why not move it to Rs 90 or Rs 100?

There is plenty to do first within this setting we have now before we fiddle too much with this lever and ignore the costs and current needs of current people on ground. Balance like I said....and the best people find and understand balance in all that they do...the best way to find greater truth imo.

There is afterall no totalitarian setup to start sending tanks and machine-gun grunts to "deal" with demonstrators that gather in city squares...say if they cannot consume basic foodstuffs, energy and things like that (to subsist on) because you drastically pushed a big buffer space for higher order corporate development for the long term stuff (as well intended you may have been)....when you could have done a bunch of other things first instead (and get your own bureaucrats in better line and shipshape for example).

For good reason too.

This was the bad driving force of demonetisation for example and leaving better crucial reforms to gather dust still (it is becoming increasingly apparent to me, I was far more neutral and wait+see for it in the past)...I dont want these ham-fisted sanghi-stronk fellows having yet another lever (this time INR setting + complete diktat to RBI as you hypothesize here) to do real damage for some mere political gain and emboldening.

Thankfully they dont have it....India just isnt that kind of CA surplus country at all. They are forced to operate within these constraints imposed and baked in by betters before them (that also stayed well away form totalitarian thought too...whew!)

I am a supporter of ramrodding certain decisions based on their need and likely opposition. If India were to wait for consensus then even essential reforms like those carried on in 1991 would still not be passed. Only the basic or small part of the reforms done in 1991 and after were required by IMF, for everything else that was passed, the Government lied to the public and presented it as IMF led fait accompli to defuse public blowback. Those reforms were passed by 'deceiving' the public as it were.

With a heavy dose of crony socialism and communism embedded in politics of the earlier part of the 20th century and still embedded in the education system, opposition in India is ideological and dogmatic, not logical, data-based or pragmatic.

Therefore, there is only so much (which is a nice way of saying very little) democratic consensus that can be achieved on economic reforms. In the name of consensus, labor law, electricity reforms are hanging fire, all of which are needed for a shift to manufacturing.

Yes, demonetization was a huge disaster but other reforms like the IBC have been excellent for the system. Agriculture reforms were passed by ordinance because, despite the Government trying to broad base support for it over the last 4 years, nothing came out of it. Aadhar was passed as a money bill, resulting in DBT and massive savings in leakage, because Congress was opposed to it. These are just a few examples of why less than consensus-based methods are needed.

I don't deny you the fallacies of the current government, but I don't buy the 'let's all wait till everyone agrees' concept on economic reforms.

 

[Joe Shearer]

You don't get it. Your so called "others", are foreign investors. India companies can NOT just default without any severe consequence. They will sue you either in India court, or Hague if the money is big enough.

If you lose the case in Hague, you better pay. Otherwise, they can seize your property oversees as well, like your foreign exchange.

Those investors like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Sequoia Capital, Carlyle Group, or Chinese Fosun International are not vegetarians. They love flesh, and flesh only.

They are investing in risk, and their high expected returns factor in failure in 9 out of 10 cases. Try not to think of debt; this is equity. You can recover nothing from a failed investment in equity unless there is serious fraud.

I do not want to waste time on you, otherwise I could point to the huge losses these same investors have made in some cases, and no action taken about them.

Please keep your posts realistic and conforming to facts.

I am a supporter of ramrodding certain decisions based on their need and likely opposition. If India were to wait for consensus then even essential reforms like those carried on in 1991 would still not be passed. Only the basic or small part of the reforms done in 1991 and after were required by IMF, for everything else that was passed, the Government lied to the public and presented it as fait accompli because of IMF so that they don't get public blowback. Those reforms were passed by 'deceiving' the public as it were.

With a heavy dose of crony socialism and communism embedded during the earlier part of the 20th century, opposition in India is ideological and dogmatic, not logical, data-based or pragmatic.

Therefore, there is only so much (which is a nice way of saying very little) democratic consensus that can be achieved on economic reforms. In the name of consensus, labor law, electricity reforms are hanging fire, all of which are needed for a shift to manufacturing.

Yes, demonetization was a huge disaster but other reforms like the IBC have been excellent for the system. Agriculture reforms were passed by ordinance because, despite the Government trying to broad base support for it over the last 4 years, nothing came out of it.

I don't deny you the fallacies of the current government, but I don't buy the 'let's all wait till everyone agrees' concept on economic reforms.

Like the government itself, your post has some good points buried deep inside a lot of not-so-good points. If you find the time, do look up the Punch cartoon about the Curate's egg.

 

[Dark1]

Hope the Indian rupee comes to around 60 to 65 to a dollar by the holiday season and then by start of next year it can revert to 75.

 

[Joe Shearer]

They are part of your forex. Please I know for a fact. But I'll leave it to you to decide. I have no problem.

You are being foolish, arguing with someone who is trying to be clever on an online forum and score points to thrill his audience. There is nothing that you can do to convince him. Please stop wasting your own time.

The thread was about Indian force approaching $500 billion

What this means in terms power projection industrial might sustaining arms race or fighting a war in ladakh or Kashmir. Etc.

Let's leave out Chinese forex

The last word in your post was superfluous.

 

[Nilgiri]

I never tried steering anyone.

Yes this is apparent to those that know you better now (back then or now).

For many others, its not known...they thus see your polished English and refined respected stature here...that is what becomes the thing they experience and judge upon.

They then treat that as some entirety of your raison d'etre and imply and then apply bad-faith purpose on top.... for they are not so aware of certain realities. They want you to play their game on their terms...and you doggedly do your best with that all. You come off a certain way to many, that is what I'm describing (in somewhat backwards fashion). Let them all have solid pasture, as long as they prefer, and you will see who come to truth ...and those are the ones that know such a thing as trust too.

Let me give you a small story from Plutarch...which I am unaware if you know:

================================

Twas very very late, as the story goes, a notable man remembered just what a true exceptional man another truly was....one in far younger, turbulent life he consented (though very reluctantly) a doomed pitiful ending on for reasons too long to list here...and circumstance would have it he would go on to be the First Emperor of a most mighty Empire.

This Emperor in old life, his own mortal end likely approaching.....saw his young grandson reading one of his mentor's work...and one would assume he was angry at the young lad for reading of an "enemy" he condemned so.

But he calmly read what the young boy was so interested in, no doubt reminiscing to a fairer time....and gave it back to the boy....saying "My child, this was a learned man, and a lover of his country".

=================================

He (Augustus) was of course talking about Cicero.

I thankfully do not need anywhere near a poignant, deep regretful reality to say same of you. You long earned it and there it will stay, always remembered well.

You see my friend that is truth in the end and what a worthy is in the end...even among the most bitter endings on the ground of far greater more well known men. It goes far past the corporeal.

 

[Joe Shearer]

why this is something to brag about while 95% wealth is controlled by 50 families and your farmer kill themselves in droves

We chose a free economy with partial state control, and removed most of the state controls a little more than halfway through. That dictates the shape of society, and it is nothing that cannot be corrected by the reintroduction of state controls at a later stage.

The difference is that the shape of the Chinese economy that you are alluding to without mentioning it is formed by government policy, and controls enforcing that policy. That is not something that is suitable for Indian politics.

 

[Robbie]

Like the government itself, your post has some good points buried deep inside a lot of not-so-good points. If you find the time, do look up the Punch cartoon about the Curate's egg.

India is not as lucky as the Chinese to have gotten Deng Xiaoping who consistently got the policies right. Nor as lucky as the Americans who garnered issue-based consensus on economics largely on logic or on individual deals. We must make do with a Government that is willing to try - get it right some times and learn from their mistakes on others. Even when their failures become as crippling as demonetization.

It is still a sight better than the socialist paradise promised by Congress to eternity. I watched in horror as UPA 2 practically said that any economic reforms were wrong and started leading India through the garden path of becoming the next Venezuela.

 

[Joe Shearer]

India is not as lucky as the Chinese to have gotten Deng Xiaoping who consistently got the policies right. Nor as lucky as the Americans who garnered issue-based consensus on economics largely on logic or on individual deals. We must make do with a Government that is willing to try - get it right some times and learn from their mistakes on others. Even when their failures become as crippling as demonetization.

It is still a sight better than the socialist paradise promised by Congress to eternity. I watched in horror as UPA 2 practically said that any economic reforms were wrong and started leading India through the garden path of becoming the next Venezuela.

Deng was the best thing that happened to China.

Why do you quote the Congress at me, as if to disprove some point I had made or currently support? Just curious.

 

[Robbie]

Deng was the best thing that happened to China.

Why do you quote the Congress at me, as if to disprove some point I had made or currently support? Just curious.

You're absolutely right, there was no logical reason for me to do that. I apologise.

Debates on Indian politics (and by extension, economics) have become so polarised that it's almost become a reflex. Woefully, we have two choices and no more.

 

[Joe Shearer]

You're absolutely right, there was no logical reason for me to do that. I apologise.

Good Heavens, calm down. I just asked, nothing stressful about this!

Debates on Indian politics (and by extension, economics) have become so polarised that it's almost become a reflex. Woefully, we have two choices and no more.

TELL me about it.

 

[letsrock]

7


Also consider what is leveraged on the forex (for further foreign loans/investment assurance etc). Its not some liquid cash pile of USD Benjamin notes at all...rather most of it is locked store values with maturities of different lengths. It affects how you can deploy them and the policy intensities and inertias. This is all what is analysed by RBI for example....largely behind the scenes...and they give the larger policy thresholds and settings for the bureaucrats and politicians....who impose their counter-pressure, action-directive and feedback on it.

B

Right..behind the scenes chanakya like RBI economists do some mantra tantra jantra. Even a kid can figure out Indian foreign exchange reserves come by selling indian assets whether it is equities or investment.

 

[Nilgiri]

I am a supporter of ramrodding certain decisions based on their need and likely opposition. If India were to wait for consensus then even essential reforms like those carried on in 1991 would still not be passed. Only the basic or small part of the reforms done in 1991 and after were required by IMF, for everything else that was passed, the Government lied to the public and presented it as IMF led fait accompli to defuse public blowback. Those reforms were passed by 'deceiving' the public as it were.

With a heavy dose of crony socialism and communism embedded in politics of the earlier part of the 20th century and still embedded in the education system, opposition in India is ideological and dogmatic, not logical, data-based or pragmatic.

Therefore, there is only so much (which is a nice way of saying very little) democratic consensus that can be achieved on economic reforms. In the name of consensus, labor law, electricity reforms are hanging fire, all of which are needed for a shift to manufacturing.

Yes, demonetization was a huge disaster but other reforms like the IBC have been excellent for the system. Agriculture reforms were passed by ordinance because, despite the Government trying to broad base support for it over the last 4 years, nothing came out of it. Aadhar was passed as a money bill, resulting in DBT and massive savings in leakage, because Congress was opposed to it. These are just a few examples of why less than consensus-based methods are needed.

I don't deny you the fallacies of the current government, but I don't buy the 'let's all wait till everyone agrees' concept on economic reforms.

Problem is ramrodding concept means you get things wrong as much as you get right. At great cost compared to gain overall given the non-level ground caused by the moral depravity that is politics more generally.

It is better to cultivate all that you say intrinsically and institutionally.

The institutions were really what formulated the prescription for the high fever episode (and worse to come) that India was experiencing in the early 90s. It went past politics.

Hypothetically a ramrod resistance offered by say a despot in some absolute sense, could have stopped those reforms and let everyone sweat it out and badly too....for the purpose of staunch "stability" and control etc.

They (institutions) can do lot better...a lot lot better....if only allowed to develop and strengthen. They are the counterweight to political flavours and dispositions and fickleness. Really only a much wealthier, developed country is where the latter can afford to really become more prevalent, its way too early for India's case imo....we must ally with apolitical institutionalism as far as possible.

But Indians are naturally very chip on shoulder types (putting it mildly)...they are not so cold and stoic and logical like Spock, they are hot headed Kirks so here we are.

I am not putting down the accomplishments of this administration either, you mention some. But the packaging and motive and intent does matter....because that guides the implementation and honesty/commitment as compared to what is merely politically expedient and more frivolously arranged and directed. If its the latter, we end up basically "lucking out" or "non lucking out" more than is desirable for a country as massive as India. We are not so downstream as Europe and USA development wise for this nonsense.

They are basically driven by reactionary populism. They likely inevitably would have been far-left wing socialist types today if the secular/founder types were more pro-free market during the cold war era...and that was somehow what was (sentimentally yet successfully perception wise) blamed for say some turmoil that happened in some space of years at some point....or harnessed in some fashion for historic grievances and blame games etc etc.

My reference point basically is what would happen if there was strong enough institutionalism in India. i.e all these good reforms would have happened with that and probably lot earlier and lot better organised too....and independent of having political drama and big leader personality complexes etc.

If Congress could sort itself out, push a better control structure and ally with what I want allied with (forfeiting hot politics to cold logic wherever possible)...this would not even be a tough choice at all for me. They are unfortunately just as much as part of the greater problem....they created lot of precedent BJP craftily uses now....and they seem to not understand need of the hour is an all in phoenix-style rebirth and renewal. Eggheads the lot of them.