India has been warned

[Spring Onion]

India will only violate sanctions if they create hurdles in economic development. Since oil is a part of economy, it is likely they will violate. Moreover, large investment has been done by Indian Oil companies in Iran that would also influence the Indian Strategy. Chabber port is also being developed. Currently access to Afghan, is only through Iran, therefore 90% India would go with Iran but any wrong decision by Iran on Nuclear thing but disturb the whole thing. Since Russia is supporting the Iran, it does means Iran might be using for peaceful purpose only.

I do understand all these points BUT tell me in that case what do you see what will be US reaction ? does any Indian support to Iran going to affect relations with US ??


Where US stands in that case ?

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

I do understand all these points BUT tell me in that case what do you see what will be US reaction ? does any Indian support to Iran going to affect relations with US ??


Where US stands in that case ?

Maybe this video can clear your questions

 

[corporate_slave]

So what you are basically saying is that India is ready to betray the USA ?

People like you are used to looking at everything from such a narrow angle, and all this nonsense sentimentality like 'betrayal' and all that. You guys have become too used to toeing someone's line.

We don't let others dictate policy to us, we will do what benefits India the most. In this situation, just need to measure what benefit the US can give us if we agree NOT to break the sanction. If it isn't anything much, we will certainly break the sanctions, since that offers greater strategic advantages.

 

[Patrician]

I do understand all these points BUT tell me in that case what do you see what will be US reaction ? does any Indian support to Iran going to affect relations with US ??


Where US stands in that case ?

There could very well be a tacit understanding between India, Iran and the US.

US: Allows india to 'violate' a few sanction in iran and chooses to look the other way

India: Promises NATO supplies into A'stan through chahbahar port severely curtailing America's dependence over an increasingly hostile and estranged 'ally'.

Iran: Let's India deliver NATO supplies to A'stan and get concessions from the US on nuclear front by working with russia in a covert deal with US

Win-win for all except Pakistan (which loses its 'supply route' relevance)

 

[Imperial]

So what you are basically saying is that India is ready to betray the USA ?

Every country protect its own interests. We never took an oath to support USA in everything nor are we their colony or in any kind of pact with them.

We have no obligations to support them and hence cant betray them. The only reasons recently India has been more agreeable to US is because they have been more agreeable to what we want. Its a mutual relationship based on respect.

This is not a master slave relation where US can dictate terms to us. If the GOI who is probably more responsible and have more context than all the internet warriors of PDF combined(myself included) thinks that its wise to break sanctions, we will break them.

Personally, I feel we should not leave a friend just to get some small benefits short term. Iran friendship would get us long term benefits and help us evolve in a fair and trustworthy power.

 

[somebozo]

Isnt is funny that the only candidates able to reach higher ups in UN are those who have mastered the art of kissing western buxoms??

 

[corporate_slave]

Isnt is funny that the only candidates able to reach higher ups in UN are those who have mastered the art of "yes sir" to their western masters??

No, it isn't funny at all because it isn't true at all. Otherwise countries like Pakistan would have been at the top by now, with their years of 'yessing around'.

 

[Spring Onion]

There could very well be a tacit understanding between India, Iran and the US.

US: Allows india to 'violate' a few sanction in iran and chooses to look the other way

India: Promises NATO supplies into A'stan through chahbahar port severely curtailing America's dependence over an increasingly hostile and estranged 'ally'.

Iran: Let's India deliver NATO supplies to A'stan and get concessions from the US on nuclear front by working with russia in a covert deal with US

Win-win for all except Pakistan (which loses its 'supply route' relevance)

mmmm that is a nice hypothetical scenario and some of the points are workable but then where Israel stands here?

Is she going to accept a Nuclear Iran ?


And if at all Iran is going to allow US supplies then why would Iran hand over its business to India in the first place ?


In that case US and Iran can deal for supplies directly and it will also be beneficial for US and NATO to have direct supplies from Iran.


And one more important point is that why would US let Iran get nukes for concession for a short period of time viz a viz Afghanistan ?

And will Iran be willing to consolidate US presence in Afghanistan in a situation where Iran is found helping taliban against US.

 

[somebozo]

Well Pakistan get to foot the bill for WoT; a fallout of americas own short sight politics. And india gets a nuke deal..how fair?

 

[Patrician]

mmmm that is a nice hypothetical scenario and some of the points are workable but then where Israel stands here?

Let's see if Israel can be mollified or not.

Is she going to accept a Nuclear Iran ?

Israel will definitely not accept an iran with nuclear weapons but if pressured by US etc., Israel may accept iran's nuclear energy ambitions provided they are guaranteed by a credible party such as Russia etc.

And if at all Iran is going to allow US supplies then why would Iran hand over its business to India in the first place ?

Iran is not going to 'hand over' anything. Iran will obviously charge for any transit facilities it provides to India and through India, to US indirectly.

In that case US and Iran can deal for supplies directly and it will also be beneficial for US and NATO to have direct supplies from Iran.

In current geopolitical scenario, given their openly anti-Iran stance, the US cannot directly 'negotiate' any deal with Iran with the whole world watching. US needs a fecilitator while dealing with Iran. India and Russia be those 'fecilitators'.

And one more important point is that why would US let Iran get nukes for concession for a short period of time viz a viz Afghanistan?

There's nothing 'short period' happening in A'stan. At most WoT will end (that too only for the name of it). US/NATO are going to have a long term presence in A'stan in the forseeable future and to sustain their bases/presence, they will need an alternate supply route free of any string which Pakistan is not willing to provide if one looks at the recent supply route blockade by pak.

And will Iran be willing to consolidate US presence in Afghanistan in a situation where Iran is found helping taliban against US.

US is going to stay in A'stan whether Iran likes it or not. Only thing Iran can do now is be pragmatic and negotiate a deal with US in order to move forward on its 'nuclear energy ambitions'. It's the only bargainning chip Iran has got.

 

[Hafizzz]

Well Pakistan get to foot the bill for WoT; a fallout of americas own short sight politics. And india gets a nuke deal..how fair?

I know. Pakistan needs to wake up immediately.

 

[SandsofTime]

There's nothing 'short period' happening in A'stan. At most WoT will end (that too only for the name of it). US/NATO are going to have a long term presence in A'stan in the forseeable future and to sustain their bases/presence, they will need an alternate supply route free of any string which Pakistan is not willing to provide if one looks at the recent supply route blockade by pak.

So USA would be trading in one set of strings with another set. Lets see how far that goes. Don't count your hatched eggs yet. The Zionist lobby is quite strong in the US. It would send an uproar if they get a whiff of whats going on around. Besides an alternate route merely reduces dependence on Pakistan to a certain extent, but doesn't come anywhere close to eliminating it. With some collaboration with Iran, we may be able to play the US to our collective interests.

When US makes a deal it expects something in return, and if doesn't get it, be prepared for the consequences.

 

[third eye]

I want your view on this as an Indian. Will India go against the sanctions?

or in other words will it be beneficial to side with US for this and save the accords or India can have more benefits by going against it?

The first principle in international relations as in even personal relations is not to ever burn your bridges unless some vital interest is violated / threatened. Next , is that nothing even enmity is permanent .

As far as Iran & supporting sanctions is concerned India I feel should put itself 1st with little regard to Iran or US. Gas from Iran though desirable seems unlikely as passage thru Pak is fraught with implications. Guarantees from GOP have little meaning as enforcing them is an issue.Pak - Iran relations are diffident at best. The Shia Sunni divide is very strong and shall stay that way.

Supporting Iran does not impinge on Indo Israeli relations as that nation is capable of defending itself and we all have to fight our own battles. The issue is that is it in India’s interest to have a nuke capable Iran ? Is Iran going to be a threat to India’s interests ?

As far as US is concerned , it needs India as much as US needs India. There will be rumblings but can be managed. Iran may not need nukes but does need nuke energy. India can serve as a window to Iran for various reasons. One must keep closest contact with a perceived enemy.The current Iranian & US admin cannot make contact beyond a level.

Also what the US has to offer is available elsewhere as well. India has the money to pay.

The threat of violating the sanctions must be kept alive to get the best deal. India needs to see where its threats / risks best get covered from.