India Economy Survey 2021-22, GDP growth 9.2%, GDP $2.98 trillion, Debt to GDP 89.3%

[MH.Yang]

Internal debt is not important? No, hedge fund crocodiles like to attack countries with high internal debt.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Ironically, most Indians are under the impression that Indian economy is at an all time high


As per the recent budget,

1) CAD is projected to be near the current rate until 24-25. Government says that it will come down after that, but who can predict with certainty that far out?

2) Some of the debt classified as infra spend is actually debt taken for disinvestment like in the case of AI.

Debt allocated for AI failure is 52k crores. Equal to around 7.3B dollars. That is not huge comparing to 1.4T planned. Even Railways capital budget has received a huge boost. As I said infra covers lot of things including airports, Railways, small ports, cargo vessels, godowns etc. Some will be done through PSUs. But knowing Mr. Gadkari, highway and ports will get to do the maximum works and money.

And if CAD stays like this till 2024-25, then yes we would be paying more loans in the second half of this decade even if the economy grows at 8%. The govt is hoping the revenue increase will help keep balancing payments and continue to fund social projects.

 

[Wood]

Debt allocated for AI failure is 52k crores. Equal to around 7.3B dollars. That is not huge comparing to 1.4T planned. Even Railways capital budget has received a huge boost. As I said infra covers lot of things including airports, Railways, small ports, cargo vessels, godowns etc. Some will be done through PSUs. But knowing Mr. Gadkari, highway and ports will get to do the maximum works and money.

And if CAD stays like this till 2024-25, then yes we would be paying more loans in the second half of this decade even if the economy grows at 8%. The govt is hoping the revenue increase will help keep balancing payments and continue to fund social projects.

I specifically referred to the current budget. The $1 trillion infrastructure spend is something we hear from UPA time.. we will probably hear about it for next 10 or 20 years.

 

[nang2]

Internal debt is not important? No, hedge fund crocodiles like to attack countries with high internal debt.

I am curious on how this kind of attacks proceeds. I'd love to see such an attack on Japan which has a massive internal debt.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

I specifically referred to the current budget. The $1 trillion infrastructure spend is something we hear from UPA time.. we will probably hear about it for next 10 or 20 years.

Nope. I think we are really doing that. Again govt cannot invest that money. For example the GoI itself through it's own money directly invests around 200B on highways, Railways, Ports, Airports etc. Other infra includes building houses, water pipelines, canals are.covered in other Dept budgets but still counted as infra.
It also includes PPP projects where for example Ontario Pension insitution is investing in.highway projects. Likewise lots of other private funds are investing in such projects. And refineries, power stations, solar plants etc. So yes we did nearly meet our previous targets. We might need the next target. Problem comes when people think 1.4T infra simply means highway and ports.

 

[Indos]

Ironically, most Indians are under the impression that Indian economy is at an all time high

All nations where their economies are among the most effected by Covid 19 economic effect ( due to lock down measure ) have some what high growth in 2021 as the economy rebound from huge recession in 2020. It is created by lower base growth where for India it is minus 6.6 percent. You can check Singapore, Philippine, and Malaysia ( at first semester of 2021, before Delta variant forced government to do lock down again ) economic growth rate in 2020 and compare it with 2021 data which for Malaysia better if we use first semester data as second semester 2021 they do strick lock down again.

From what I understand IMF and many Economists use trend data and many variables like PMI index, tax collection, etc to make an economic projection. The trend data according to me has more weight to be used by institution like IMF and this is some what quite logic since this is the safest thing to do projection, even if the economy growth shows some changes, it will be usually around that trend figure whether up or down. But current IMF projection on India is some how doesnt follow that, dont know why but they do now have the same believe with Indian government for 2022 and 2023 growth projection despite with a bit slower rate than what Indian government had projected.

India economy actually was slowing under Modi rule, the 2019 growth is just around 4 percent, it is quite different if we compare the period before Modi rule India. So if we use trend data, the growth happened during Modi period has more ground to be used as future projection than single year in 2021 that happened due to very low based of growth in 2020 (minus 6.6 percent ).

I think we should look the actual 2022 and 2023 growth rate first before we can be quite confidence to say whether India economic growth do come back to its previous growth figure before Modi rule India. This is also why for Indonesia's case, our government still use the figure of 5-5.5 percent for growth projection in 2022 since it is our economic growth trend for the last 7 years before the pandemic struct the world in 2020.

 

[Andhadhun]

 

[Indos]

All nations where their economies are among the most effected by Covid 19 economic effect ( due to lock down measure ) have some what high growth in 2021 as the economy rebound from huge recession in 2020. It is created by lower base growth where for India it is minus 6.6 percent. You can check Singapore, Philippine, and Malaysia ( at first semester of 2021, before Delta variant forced government to do lock down again ) economic growth rate in 2020 and compare it with 2021 data which for Malaysia better if we use first semester data as second semester 2021 they do strick lock down again.

From what I understand IMF and many Economists use trend data and many variables like PMI index, tax collection, etc to make an economic projection. The trend data according to me has more weight to be used by institution like IMF and this is some what quite logic since this is the safest thing to do projection, even if the economy growth shows some changes, it will be usually around that trend figure whether up or down. But current IMF projection on India is some how doesnt follow that, dont know why but they do now have the same believe with Indian government for 2022 and 2023 growth projection despite with a bit slower rate than what Indian government had projected.

India economy actually was slowing under Modi rule, the 2019 growth is just around 4 percent, it is quite different if we compare the period before Modi rule India. So if we use trend data, the growth happened during Modi period has more ground to be used as future projection than single year in 2021 that happened due to very low based of growth in 2020 (minus 6.6 percent ).

I think we should look the actual 2022 and 2023 growth rate first before we can be quite confidence to say whether India economic growth do come back to its previous growth figure before Modi rule India. This is also why for Indonesia's case, our government still use the figure of 5-5.5 percent for growth projection in 2022 since it is our economic growth trend for the last 7 years before the pandemic struct the world in 2020.

Now Economist starts to believe me ............

India's economy may have grown 6% in the third quarter​

By
Kirtika Suneja
Last Updated: Feb 24, 2022, 06:15 AM IST


India's economy likely grew 6% in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, slower than the first two quarters, as the waning base effect overshadowed an economic recovery, an ET poll of economists showed.

The 11 economists polled by ET predicted the October-December quarter growth in the 4-6.6% range, with a median estimate of 6%. India's gross domestic product had grown 20.1% and 8.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and 0.5% a year earlier.

"Even as a normalising base is expected to dampen the growth in GDP in sequential terms, the performance relative to the pre-Covid level is likely to have improved markedly in the third quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ratings firm ICRA.


Economists said at the expected range in the third-quarter expansion and with the Omicron wave denting the economy in the current quarter, the fiscal 2022 growth could be lower than the 9.2% forecast by the government.


India Ratings expects GDP growth in the first two quarters to be 0.9-1.1 percentage point lower than previously reported and has lowered its projection to 5.6% for the third quarter and 5.1% for the fourth, from 6% and 5.7%, respectively.

High-frequency Indicators Present a Mixed Picture
"This would translate into a GDP growth rate of 8.6% on-year for FY22 compared to 9.2% in the first advance estimates," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings & Research.

The National Statistical Organisation will release the third-quarter GDP and second advanced estimate of national income for FY22 on February 28.

India's economic recovery gained some traction, and a cautious reviva ..

India's economy may have grown 6% in the third quarter

estimate of 6%. India's gross domestic product had grown 20.1% and 8.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and 0.5% a year earlier.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

@Bilal9

@Sudarshan

@Arulmozhi Varman

 

[Bilal9]

Now Economist starts to believe me ............

India's economy may have grown 6% in the third quarter​

By
Kirtika Suneja
Last Updated: Feb 24, 2022, 06:15 AM IST


India's economy likely grew 6% in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, slower than the first two quarters, as the waning base effect overshadowed an economic recovery, an ET poll of economists showed.

The 11 economists polled by ET predicted the October-December quarter growth in the 4-6.6% range, with a median estimate of 6%. India's gross domestic product had grown 20.1% and 8.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and 0.5% a year earlier.

"Even as a normalising base is expected to dampen the growth in GDP in sequential terms, the performance relative to the pre-Covid level is likely to have improved markedly in the third quarter," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ratings firm ICRA.


Economists said at the expected range in the third-quarter expansion and with the Omicron wave denting the economy in the current quarter, the fiscal 2022 growth could be lower than the 9.2% forecast by the government.


India Ratings expects GDP growth in the first two quarters to be 0.9-1.1 percentage point lower than previously reported and has lowered its projection to 5.6% for the third quarter and 5.1% for the fourth, from 6% and 5.7%, respectively.

High-frequency Indicators Present a Mixed Picture
"This would translate into a GDP growth rate of 8.6% on-year for FY22 compared to 9.2% in the first advance estimates," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings & Research.

The National Statistical Organisation will release the third-quarter GDP and second advanced estimate of national income for FY22 on February 28.

India's economic recovery gained some traction, and a cautious reviva ..

India's economy may have grown 6% in the third quarter

estimate of 6%. India's gross domestic product had grown 20.1% and 8.4% in the first and second quarters, respectively, and 0.5% a year earlier.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

@Bilal9

@Sudarshan

@Arulmozhi Varman

@Indos this was expected. Modi continues to mismanage the Indian economy.

But its okay. I am no expert on any economies.

I don't want to rain on the Sanghi Chest-beaters' parade...

I think growth in Bangladesh conservatively will also be average better than 6% GDP growth overall for the last 3 quarters....despite Omicron....exports have exceeded expectations.

 

[Indos]

@Indos this was expected. Modi continues to mismanage the Indian economy.

But its okay. I am no expert on any economies.

I don't want to rain on the Sanghi Chest-beaters' parade...

I think growth in Bangladesh conservatively will also be average better than 6% GDP growth overall for the last 3 quarters....despite Omicron....exports have exceeded expectations.

We will see the credibility of Indian economists working in IMF soon, both Chief IMF economist and Chief for Asia region are Indians.

At least their projection to Indonesian economy in 2021 is less optimist (3.2 %) then the reality (3.69%).

Optimist projection of course will help future investment appetite for both FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and financial market (stock/currency/bond market) but if the number has much deviation then they will be accused as bias as an economists.

 

[Indos]

All nations where their economies are among the most effected by Covid 19 economic effect ( due to lock down measure ) have some what high growth in 2021 as the economy rebound from huge recession in 2020. It is created by lower base growth where for India it is minus 6.6 percent. You can check Singapore, Philippine, and Malaysia ( at first semester of 2021, before Delta variant forced government to do lock down again ) economic growth rate in 2020 and compare it with 2021 data which for Malaysia better if we use first semester data as second semester 2021 they do strick lock down again.

From what I understand IMF and many Economists use trend data and many variables like PMI index, tax collection, etc to make an economic projection. The trend data according to me has more weight to be used by institution like IMF and this is some what quite logic since this is the safest thing to do projection, even if the economy growth shows some changes, it will be usually around that trend figure whether up or down. But current IMF projection on India is some how doesnt follow that, dont know why but they do now have the same believe with Indian government for 2022 and 2023 growth projection despite with a bit slower rate than what Indian government had projected.

India economy actually was slowing under Modi rule, the 2019 growth is just around 4 percent, it is quite different if we compare the period before Modi rule India. So if we use trend data, the growth happened during Modi period has more ground to be used as future projection than single year in 2021 that happened due to very low based of growth in 2020 (minus 6.6 percent ).

I think we should look the actual 2022 and 2023 growth rate first before we can be quite confidence to say whether India economic growth do come back to its previous growth figure before Modi rule India. This is also why for Indonesia's case, our government still use the figure of 5-5.5 percent for growth projection in 2022 since it is our economic growth trend for the last 7 years before the pandemic struct the world in 2020.

Look like my prediction is better than IMF and Moody

Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2021-22, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) today. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 0.7 per cent in the corresponding period of 2020-21, the NSO said.

In its second advance estimates of national accounts, the NSO has projected 8.9 per cent growth in 2021-22. In its first advance estimates released in January, it had projected 9.2 per cent growth for 2021-22 as against a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21. The economy had grown by 20.3 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal due to lower base effect. In the second quarter, the GDP grew by 8.5 per cent.Barclays had projected a GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in Q3, while SBI had expected it to be 5.8 per cent. An ET poll of 11 economists had predicted the October-December quarter growth in the 4-6.6% range.

India GDP News Updates: Q3 GDP expands at 5.4%, govt revises FY22 GDP growth estimate to 8.9% from 9.2% earlier - The Economic Times

Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2021-22, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) today. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 0.7 per cent in the corresponding period of 2020-21, the NSO said.In its second advance...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

@Bilal9

 

[Indos]

The growth is nearing the trend data of previous years under Modi, excluding the 2020 and first 9 months of 2021 ( high growth due to low base effect ), which I have stated in February 2, while IMF still believe on Indian government projection in February 2022.

The Indian government estimate posted here is a very advance estimate after they see the data is not like what they expected.

 

[Bilal9]

Look like my prediction is better than IMF and Moody

Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2021-22, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) today. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 0.7 per cent in the corresponding period of 2020-21, the NSO said.

In its second advance estimates of national accounts, the NSO has projected 8.9 per cent growth in 2021-22. In its first advance estimates released in January, it had projected 9.2 per cent growth for 2021-22 as against a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21. The economy had grown by 20.3 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal due to lower base effect. In the second quarter, the GDP grew by 8.5 per cent.Barclays had projected a GDP growth of 6.6 per cent in Q3, while SBI had expected it to be 5.8 per cent. An ET poll of 11 economists had predicted the October-December quarter growth in the 4-6.6% range.

India GDP News Updates: Q3 GDP expands at 5.4%, govt revises FY22 GDP growth estimate to 8.9% from 9.2% earlier - The Economic Times

Indian economy grew by 5.4 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2021-22, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) today. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 0.7 per cent in the corresponding period of 2020-21, the NSO said.In its second advance...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

@Bilal9

Your views also jive with what I predicted as a non-expert.

Dismal show for manufacturing and construction growth (0.2 percent) while bhakt cheerleaders are jumping up and down for no reason to get Modi his popularity numbers.

@Homo Sapiens bhai is more of an economics expert and I will ask his opinion.

 

[Indos]

Your views also jive with what I predicted as a non-expert.

Dismal show for manufacturing and construction growth (0.2 percent) while bhakt cheerleaders are jumping up and down for no reason to get Modi his popularity numbers.

@Homo Sapiens bhai is more of an economics expert and I will ask his opinion.

Indian FDI also include financial sector where Indonesia doesnt include that component, we only calculate the money disburse to real FDI and the ones build factories, building, etc, even we dont include investment in oil and gas sector in government official investment figure despite we have huge oil and gas sector.

Last year Pertamina revenues alone is around 45 billion USD. Their capex (capital expenditure) is huge, their current refinery project on one refinery alone is around 45 billion USD in Balikpapan refinery, they still have mega oil and gas refinery and chemical project in Tuban, let alone their investment in drilling, retail sector, and renewable like battery and solar panel production and others), not to mention foreign companies like BP, Exxon, Shell, and others operating in Indonesia and also our private own oil and gas company like Medco Energy.

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

The growth is nearing the trend data of previous years under Modi, excluding the 2020 and first 9 months of 2021 ( high growth due to low base effect ), which I have stated in February 2, while IMF still believe on Indian government projection in February 2022.

The Indian government estimate posted here is a very advance estimate after they see the data is not like what they expected.


View attachment 819526

This FY it looks like 8.4% GDP growth instead of 9.2%. Next year estimate of 8.2% look optimistic, more like 6% maybe.