INDIA-CHINA STANDOFF OUTCOME

[acid rain]

Whether this act is tactical and limited to a remote icy waste, it is a strategic victory for Chinese policy because it is the Indian authorities – not the Chinese - who have been compelled to explain why the Chinese intruded

In spite of such a growing climate of friendship, the Chinese have chosen to embarrass the Indian government by creating a minor crisis for their own reasons. For the average Indian I think it is difficult to take this issue in the stride. Despite China's action, except for hawks, most of the people in India do not want a war with China, but all of them want India to be treated as a nation with dignity. This is a minimum China cannot ignore in its Machiavellian calculations regarding India.

I also believe, China does not want a shooting war for a very different reason. They remember the Sun Tzu’s quote “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” So it does not make sense for the Chinese to go to war when they can achieve what they want without firing a shot. Why should they? After all by the simple act of moving a platoon of troops into the disputed area, they have managed to divide the nation, confuse the government, frustrate the armed forces and get away with what they want to do.

Actually, India expects the issue to be resolved when the Minister of External Affairs Salman Khurshid visits Beijing on May 9. In other words, they've already accepted the Chinese status quo rather than the Chinese listening to their call. This is not surprising because no responsible person has asked the Chinese the simple questions: why are they intruding? Why don’t the Chinese troops to go back to Depsang Valley – where they came from? Semantics, on which diplomacy depends so heavily, are not only indicators of the mind and but is also Indias lack of clarity.

India and China decided to bury the hatchet and in the interest of fostering better relations when they signed an agreement on November 29, 1996 at New Delhi on a series of confidence building measures (CBM) recognizing the problem of un-demarcated border and accepting an LAC of uncertainty. The present Chinese standoff goes in the face of Article I and II of the CBM.


Article I stipulates: Neither side shall use its military capability against the other side. No armed forces deployed by either side in the border areas along the line of actual control as part of their respective military strength shall be used to attack the other side, or engage in military activities that threaten the other side or undermine peace, tranquillity and stability in the India-China border areas.” In military perception if a subunit of a foreign force supported by helicopters intrudes well inside our LAC and establishes a camp it would be reasonable to construe it as a military preparation to deployment.

Article II makes it even clearer: “Pending an ultimate solution to the boundary question, the two sides reaffirm their commitment to strictly respect and observe the line-of actual control in the India-China border areas. No activities of either side shall overstep the line of actual control.” So every time such an intrusion is perceived by one side as overstepping the LAC they have the right to invoke this article. So a reasonable ground exists for India to object every time a perceived violation of LAC takes place.



Some of the reasons for the Chinese to bring pressure through the intrusion in Ladakh could be –

- The Chinese perhaps want India to halt its much delayed infrastructure development now in progress in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh because it would help Indian troop movements and operations. Strategically it would strengthen the Indian government’s hold on the area, further reinforcing its claim. The most charitable explanation would be the Chinese want to strengthen their bargaining position in the border talks by pressurizing the government to halt the work in progress.

- A new Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping has taken over. Xi had proposed five proposals for improving bilateral ties with India. These included keeping aside differences on various issues while improving mutual ties and accommodation of each other's concerns while dealing with "core interests". He had also suggested that peace and tranquillity should be maintained on the boundary pending settlement of the issue. At the same time, at the recent BRICS summit Xi said “The boundary question is a complex issue left over from history, and solving the issue won’t be easy”. Is the border intrusion to emphasize that India should not pressurise his leadership on the border question as it affects China’s core interest?

- Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang chose to visit New Delhi to be his first trip abroad as Prime Minister perhaps to stress the importance China attached to improve relations with India. Is the DBO intrusion on the eve, a subtle reminder to India that it was China which calls the shot? As Li plans to go to Pakistan, China's long term strategic ally, such a reminder would certainly please Pakistan.

-The Chinese have been carrying out joint exercises involving the PLA, air force and the public security forces involving air lift of troops using trying out their c3s systems in Xinjiang area. Is the PLA testing new drills in a simulated situation in border? Or trying to provoke a military response to understand India's current response mechanism? These are some of the legitimate questions for military analysts to answer.

Unfortunately, the national leadership and Indian people appear to have been lulled into the often repeated cliché "Our government will take every step to protect the national integrity and security" But words do not protect you in actual war. In 1962 you made the same mistake and paid a heavy price that wiped your national confidence, which has not yet been regained while dealing with the Chinese. India is making the same mistake again because the Chinese are sure to exploit this national weakness to achieve many victories applying the Sun Tzu dictum:

“Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:
1. He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2. He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3. He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.
4. He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5. He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”

Even as an embarrassed Indian government was trying to soften the strong public reaction to the intrusion, China released a While paper on PLA for the first time giving details of the organisation and structure of the military, and the country’s major defence priorities. Two of the defence priorities are:
-- Aiming to win local wars under the conditions of informationization and expanding and intensifying military preparedness.
-- Formulating the concept of comprehensive security and effectively conducting military operations other than war (MOOTW).

Does Ladakh fit in the scheme of “local wars” the doctrine talks about? Is PLA intensifying its “informationization and military preparedness” to win a local war there? As Chinese do not indulge in frivolous actions for the sake of form, it would be worthwhile to ponder over these questions and keep the powder dry...

It will do you well to remember what they did so successfully in 1962.

Link please..

 

[acid rain]

India will lose a war to China. Badly. Simple as that. Anyone who says otherwise is a clearly not in touch with reality.

I guess PA generals thought the same each time they started a war with India - a Indo China war will be indecisive with no clear winner - can you imagine 2.5 billion people or worlds 2 biggest armies going at war with each other?

 

[IND151]

the world is aware of the fact that chinese are the men of principal.

Ladakh as well as upto central india and arunchunal pradesh+assam belong to china..
china was long silence doesnt mean this is indian land now..

The best part would be if india give up the land without any war,because if war happened the strength of countries in south asia would increase by atleast 10 more new countries

Let me remind you, there was a nation decades ago which tried to destabilize North east and thought that "oh, its India! it cant do anything even if we harass it and try to destabilize it's border regions, kya kar lega India?"


That nation paid the terrible price for its deeds and it's mighty regional ally kept mum

Any way China has no claim on Central India,Assam.

As for as AP, Ladakh are concerned, they will remain with us.

 

[Jackdaws]

If neccesary we surely can do that,like what Russians did in WW2.the whole country can be put on war mode.but of course that is certainly not the case in a war with India.still,India is in no position to take on China in any aspects,so it'll be wise for India to stay quiet.

And we all know what happened to the erstwhile Soviet Union.