India airlifts military hospital to Tajikistan

[bloo]

Mate , a " lonely outpost " in a remote location with only a military hospital currrently isn't going to tighten the scruff around Pakistan's neck , maybe divert some resources to the West border if I accept for the sake for argument that in case of hostilities , these countries are going to allow Indians to attack from their soil , knowing what kind of retaliation they may face later . You are actually banking on a lot of countries in the CIS and Iran now to assist you in a war , this isn't how it works and this is what is unrealistic . Why would they fight a war for you ? Russia and Pakistan ties are getting warmer now and I suggest you keep a look at them , high level meetings have taken place recently along with increased cooperation in various sectors , just days ago , Russian AF chief for the first time in history visited Pakistan and held talks with his Pakistani counterparts , now this represents a very positive development . I am not expecting them to go to the " India - Russia " level but just enough for the Kremlin to not remain hostile to the state of Pakistan and trust me , that is quite easy to achieve . Russians were mainly interested in Pakistan's assistance for peace and stability in the Central Asia and Chechnya , quite similar to what Americans wanted in Afghanistan , doesn't it tell you that Islamabad can actually provide that much needed " peace " for the trade to flourish in the region ? As for the Russian claim that it doesn't sell weapon to India's enemies , I suggest you research just a little about RD-93 deal . As for the " situation on ground " thing , things like this cant be kept secret like you people assume sometimes , because it involves complicated geopolitics of the region and various countries . Lets say , you station a squadron at Ayni , cant the " eyes in the sky " notice that ? No , it can . I will leave the debate about IAF's depleting squadron strength for some other thread here .

As for Iran , Pakistan enjoys excellent relations with Tehran and I do not see any reason how you are expecting their help in resupplying the base case of hostilities , things are fine for now , I have said it . But when hostilities commence , you will find things a lot more different than they are now , logistics is always the key problem in maintaining a foreign base . The trade between both countries is increasing and the pipeline is being worked on by the Iranians . Think of the massiveness of the gas deal which has been signed and work is completed on their side .

By mentioning the International North-South Transport Corridor , you are further painting a gloomy picture for your logistics problem , first of all trade routes aren't meant for logistics for the base and Iran will more likely be neutral at times of hostilities because of the trade it has with both countries . Afghanistan isn't stable and isn't expected to be in the near future , you can plan it all and post it here , but the things aren't really fine there in absence of anything such as Govt . Extension of diplomacy with the CIS countries doesn't mean that a country will fight a war for India and put itself in danger , why ? I am not banking of Afghanistan's failure because it has already happened , I speak of the future fearing a civil war there as soon as the coalition departs which is neither good for my country nor for the region .

My argument " that the route has to bypass all the countries considering India as hostile " is still valid and I am not sure what you understood by it , looking at the geography , the easiest and safest way to Central Asia goes from China and Pakistan and both aren't going to allow any resupply , are they ?

Lethality of Farkhor ? Mate , you have leased a squadron Russian Mig29's there , practically they supply the base whilst you pay for it , again would I be right in saying that de facto they are running the base ? Again , if Dushanbe is ready for PAF's retaliation and allows you to attack from there , besides diverting some resources to the Western border , I do not see any cause of worry . ISI has nothing to do with media , in fact the most commonly criticized institution in Pakistani media is the army itself .

Oman listening station , like the half of the things your media exaggerates beyond limit cant be used to spy on Gwadar or any Pakistani region , I have seen the Google imagery of the area in the thread posted in Indian section and read the details and the opinion of the people , I have seen the few small towers on the coast , SIGINT or Signals Intelligence isn't done by such a little setup , physics has everything to do with it , there's no workaround around getting big dishes and domes to get the job done , the size of the towers suggest and give an approximate idea of their listening power and this come is just too small to pose a threat to us for now . You mention ECHELON , are you comparing that vast setup of 5 different countries and the station at Menwith Hill and the giant domes with a few small towers on the coast of Oman ? Have you looked at the vastness of the ECHELON setup to claim such a thing ? Both airforces possess aircraft capable of spying purposes , what is so new about it ?

Yes , Russian reluctancy , they allowed Farkhor at times when they were unable to operate it , now things have changed and Moscow is reluctant to allow India or any other country a stronger footprint in the Central Asia which they consider to be their backyard . I suggest you read this .

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...i-military-base-tajikistan-russia-locked.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...-airbase-tajikistan-now-settles-hospital.html

As for the second part of your post , I suggest you read my post again which said " without getting Pakistan on board " , you will need us to get a pipeline from there . That is what I said and that is what you have proved by posting links That was in response to another member's claim that India is planning a pipeline from Central Asia and I never mentioned " China " in my reply . It is an alternate route , sure .

Not now it isn't but yes with situation slowly improving it will be in time.
You are completely putting an unnecessary scenario, why would India fight a full fledged war fom two fronts?
The western side will just help us put the nail in the coffin, the main battle(if ever) will of course happen from the original side.
Rather I should say that Indian influence in the CIS region is just providing a buffer.
NO ONE IS SAYING ANYONE WILL FIGHT FOR US, ALL EVERYONE IS SAYING IS THAT WE WILL ENCIRCLE WITH OUR OWN RESOURCES. THAT'S IT.
What benefit will the other country have if they battle for us? NONE, That's common sense.
We'll just use those countries as platforms.US does it.


As for, "Russia and Pakistan ties are getting warmer now and I suggest you keep a look at them "
I know but unfortunately for you they are not "warm" enough. And I know that too coz Russia refused to sell arms of any kind, and "various sectors" as u say are not much as far as i know.
Its basic diplomacy, as 2014 inches closer Russia too needs to keep a check in Central Asia, its that simple, this for the fact I know coz Russia is "warming up" to almost all the CIS nations nothing special.
U r right they are getting "warmer", but of course only for their own ends as I explained(post 2014).
You don't exactly think that Russia JUST wants goodwill at a time where India-Pakistan relations are going no where and US is "warming up" to India????
You don't actually think they would prioritize Pakistan over India do you????
They may not be hostile to Pak anymore(or less) but I am damn well sure at a time of an exigency they will definitely side with us, the reason is simple, our history and we have more to offer.


RD-93 deal is through a third party and was a haggling process of years ago which India still doesn't seem to object to and the news of not selling arms to Pak came after Putin's visit to Pak.
So is there any thing else that Russia is currently selling to Pak. It'd be better if u check that out.

Geo politics is not THAT complicated and the good thing is that they are not "hostile" to India as you say.
IAF's depleting squadrons are not in anyway related to Ayni, the first thing is to get the base finalized before even thinking of putting more planes, and with MMRCA and Tejas on the pipeline regardless of their current status there is still no deficiency, as both will be done before 2020.

And no one is denying that the "eye in the sky" can't figure it out however I doubt u can figure that out by just google earth, anyways as I said even if IAF had jets there why would Islamabad have the compulsion to tell everyone?
Which is basically why you like me will never know about Farkhor's current state until India officially announces it and your assumptions are just a hit and a miss.

Is it really?
Pakistan and Iran's Dysfunctional Relationship :: Middle East Quarterly

Again we have more to offer Iran than Pakistan can.
http://www.tdap.gov.pk/doc_reports/TDAP%20REPORT%20ON%20IRAN.pdf
And as reported trade between Iran and India can rise upto $5 billion by 2013-14.


INSTC doesn't particularly mean Iran and u didn't quite read what i wrote, constant trade eventually decreases logistical problem.
And though business logistics is different from military logistics, business more often than not
has paved the way for military occupancy.
And as I showed you from the link of a new route in the region which is 40% shorter and 30% cheaper. This will eventually happen with the other CIS as well.

Pakistan's sole hope is in Afghanistan failing.
As we can gather from the news India is not the only one wary of the US departure but all the neighboring countries around it including China and Russia.
We can see a slow yet good enough progress.
And withdrawal doesn't mean 100% withdrawal.
Even though the majority of the forces will go away the US still will be there that includes trainers, SpecOp forces and military assets it will keep in the country after the drawdown to support ANA and police and separately an American counter-terrorism force consisting of around 1000 American troops, et cetra.
A separate NATO mission for training and assisting of the Afghan security forces.
There are many post 2014 plans.
Basically Afghanistan will become another S.Korea. And the american forces present there will become another USFK.
Panetta heads to Asia, as Obama administration makes strategic ‘pivot’ - The Washington Post
You are hoping too much on Afghanistan to fail which day by day to me seems very unlikely.
Everyone expected South Korea to fail too but its still there.
Even though I don't like American diplomacy they are capable of quite a few things.

And your argument " that the route has to bypass all the countries considering India as hostile " is still NOT valid.
Coz I don't see any central Asian states except Pakistan that is hostile to India.
So yes resupplying is still on the cards wth the way India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ Policy is progressing I don't see otherwise, unless of course u have valid reason, rather than just claiming it is still valid.
And if you are sooooo sure then please name a few central Asian countries that are hostile to India???

Yes that seems that they are practically running the base.
And again I am confident a little strong-arming the Russians will yield the results as we were supposed to flee it 6 years ago and yet the matter came into talks a few months ago during Putin's visit.

First thing's first which intelligence agency has a media wing that screens news of its country??
Ahmed Rashid the Pakistani revoloutionary, journalist and writer states in his book 'Pakistan on the Brink' that ISI has been known to screen news and "eliminate" media people.
So yes, ISI has more or less everything to do with Pakistani media.

OH you mean to say that you know more than the Joint Cypher Bureau, IB and RAW?????????
"I have seen the Google imagery of the area in the thread posted in Indian section and read the details and the opinion of the people , I have seen the few small towers on the coast "
When did I ever compare ECHELON OR MENWITH HILL TO THE "LISTENING POST"?
If u notice the word "LISTENING POST" u will realize ur folly of comparing them, they are literally used for missile defense among other things, why will it even come to ur mind.
If you got fooled by the size of the radomes on the pictures then u should know that bigger size of the radomes means is to equally transmit as to receive, however a listening post is not doing such a complicated task.
Please read my post before prematurely evaluating it, again.
I am basically denying ur claim of a SIGINT setup having to defy physics to cover large distances.
If you know about NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter then nothing is beyond physics.
And where did you see the image "with a few small towers"?
If you would be so kind as to share them??????
And I am sure u are knowledgeable since google maps are known to show top secret locations..........
Just like the listening station in Madagascar, this too probably has a few antennas.

AND FOR YOUR KIND INFORMATION it is not the Indian media that propagated the news, but was
"claimed by the France-based, privately-operated, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications, in its 'Intelligence Online' publication."
That should clear it up.

Maybe you should read it yourself that is Ayni not Farkhor.

Setting up a military hospital, though, seems to be in line with the Indian military's new soft power strategy in Central Asia. A few weeks ago, India's defense minister announced that the country would be establishing a high-altitude military research center in Kyrgyzstan, as well as to begin training Kyrgyzstan's soldiers for United Nations peacekeeping missions. That seems to be a smart tack for India: they'll build relationships with the region's militaries without provoking Russia into reacting against them. It's not as splashy as an airbase, but in the long run it will probably be more productive for them.

The fact is that advancing slowly, though it may not seem much it still is a thorn in Pakistan's side.
Ayni was supposed to be fled in 2007 and yet IAF still has it and why are the Tajikistanis denying that the military officials' visit to Tajikistan has nothing to do with the transfer of Ayni military airdrome to India? I WONDER WHY???????????

Why don't you read my post carefully.
Where was I denying your post or trying to prove otherwise from my links? If you're not too busy replying to me rather than understanding it, u would have.
Yes it IS an alternate route and it is still in talks.

 

[Secur]

Not now it isn't but yes with situation slowly improving it will be in time.
You are completely putting an unnecessary scenario, why would India fight a full fledged war fom two fronts?
The western side will just help us put the nail in the coffin, the main battle(if ever) will of course happen from the original side.
Rather I should say that Indian influence in the CIS region is just providing a buffer.
NO ONE IS SAYING ANYONE WILL FIGHT FOR US, ALL EVERYONE IS SAYING IS THAT WE WILL ENCIRCLE WITH OUR OWN RESOURCES. THAT'S IT.
What benefit will the other country have if they battle for us? NONE, That's common sense.
We'll just use those countries as platforms.US does it.


As for, "Russia and Pakistan ties are getting warmer now and I suggest you keep a look at them "
I know but unfortunately for you they are not "warm" enough. And I know that too coz Russia refused to sell arms of any kind, and "various sectors" as u say are not much as far as i know.
Its basic diplomacy, as 2014 inches closer Russia too needs to keep a check in Central Asia, its that simple, this for the fact I know coz Russia is "warming up" to almost all the CIS nations nothing special.
U r right they are getting "warmer", but of course only for their own ends as I explained(post 2014).
You don't exactly think that Russia JUST wants goodwill at a time where India-Pakistan relations are going no where and US is "warming up" to India????
You don't actually think they would prioritize Pakistan over India do you????
They may not be hostile to Pak anymore(or less) but I am damn well sure at a time of an exigency they will definitely side with us, the reason is simple, our history and we have more to offer.


RD-93 deal is through a third party and was a haggling process of years ago which India still doesn't seem to object to and the news of not selling arms to Pak came after Putin's visit to Pak.
So is there any thing else that Russia is currently selling to Pak. It'd be better if u check that out.

Geo politics is not THAT complicated and the good thing is that they are not "hostile" to India as you say.
IAF's depleting squadrons are not in anyway related to Ayni, the first thing is to get the base finalized before even thinking of putting more planes, and with MMRCA and Tejas on the pipeline regardless of their current status there is still no deficiency, as both will be done before 2020.

And no one is denying that the "eye in the sky" can't figure it out however I doubt u can figure that out by just google earth, anyways as I said even if IAF had jets there why would Islamabad have the compulsion to tell everyone?
Which is basically why you like me will never know about Farkhor's current state until India officially announces it and your assumptions are just a hit and a miss.

Is it really?
Pakistan and Iran's Dysfunctional Relationship :: Middle East Quarterly

Again we have more to offer Iran than Pakistan can.
http://www.tdap.gov.pk/doc_reports/TDAP%20REPORT%20ON%20IRAN.pdf
And as reported trade between Iran and India can rise upto $5 billion by 2013-14.


INSTC doesn't particularly mean Iran and u didn't quite read what i wrote, constant trade eventually decreases logistical problem.
And though business logistics is different from military logistics, business more often than not
has paved the way for military occupancy.
And as I showed you from the link of a new route in the region which is 40% shorter and 30% cheaper. This will eventually happen with the other CIS as well.

Pakistan's sole hope is in Afghanistan failing.
As we can gather from the news India is not the only one wary of the US departure but all the neighboring countries around it including China and Russia.
We can see a slow yet good enough progress.
And withdrawal doesn't mean 100% withdrawal.
Even though the majority of the forces will go away the US still will be there that includes trainers, SpecOp forces and military assets it will keep in the country after the drawdown to support ANA and police and separately an American counter-terrorism force consisting of around 1000 American troops, et cetra.
A separate NATO mission for training and assisting of the Afghan security forces.
There are many post 2014 plans.
Basically Afghanistan will become another S.Korea. And the american forces present there will become another USFK.
Panetta heads to Asia, as Obama administration makes strategic ‘pivot’ - The Washington Post
You are hoping too much on Afghanistan to fail which day by day to me seems very unlikely.
Everyone expected South Korea to fail too but its still there.
Even though I don't like American diplomacy they are capable of quite a few things.

And your argument " that the route has to bypass all the countries considering India as hostile " is still NOT valid.
Coz I don't see any central Asian states except Pakistan that is hostile to India.
So yes resupplying is still on the cards wth the way India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ Policy is progressing I don't see otherwise, unless of course u have valid reason, rather than just claiming it is still valid.
And if you are sooooo sure then please name a few central Asian countries that are hostile to India???

Yes that seems that they are practically running the base.
And again I am confident a little strong-arming the Russians will yield the results as we were supposed to flee it 6 years ago and yet the matter came into talks a few months ago during Putin's visit.

First thing's first which intelligence agency has a media wing that screens news of its country??
Ahmed Rashid the Pakistani revoloutionary, journalist and writer states in his book 'Pakistan on the Brink' that ISI has been known to screen news and "eliminate" media people.
So yes, ISI has more or less everything to do with Pakistani media.

OH you mean to say that you know more than the Joint Cypher Bureau, IB and RAW?????????
"I have seen the Google imagery of the area in the thread posted in Indian section and read the details and the opinion of the people , I have seen the few small towers on the coast "
When did I ever compare ECHELON OR MENWITH HILL TO THE "LISTENING POST"?
If u notice the word "LISTENING POST" u will realize ur folly of comparing them, they are literally used for missile defense among other things, why will it even come to ur mind.
If you got fooled by the size of the radomes on the pictures then u should know that bigger size of the radomes means is to equally transmit as to receive, however a listening post is not doing such a complicated task.
Please read my post before prematurely evaluating it, again.
I am basically denying ur claim of a SIGINT setup having to defy physics to cover large distances.
If you know about NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter then nothing is beyond physics.
And where did you see the image "with a few small towers"?
If you would be so kind as to share them??????
And I am sure u are knowledgeable since google maps are known to show top secret locations..........
Just like the listening station in Madagascar, this too probably has a few antennas.

AND FOR YOUR KIND INFORMATION it is not the Indian media that propagated the news, but was
"claimed by the France-based, privately-operated, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications, in its 'Intelligence Online' publication."
That should clear it up.

Maybe you should read it yourself that is Ayni not Farkhor.

The fact is that advancing slowly, though it may not seem much it still is a thorn in Pakistan's side.
Ayni was supposed to be fled in 2007 and yet IAF still has it and why are the Tajikistanis denying that the military officials' visit to Tajikistan has nothing to do with the transfer of Ayni military airdrome to India? I WONDER WHY???????????

Why don't you read my post carefully.
Where was I denying your post or trying to prove otherwise from my links? If you're not too busy replying to me rather than understanding it, u would have.
Yes it IS an alternate route and it is still in talks.

Alright , then we will see in future when it happens , why go all berserk and exaggerate it now , create encirclement theories where there is none ? The " attack from a foreign base in case of hostilities " was a hypothetical scenario being discussed by some members when I reminded them of the difficulty of resupplying the base currently and the high unlikely case that any country will allow that to happen due to various reasons . I , personally , know that it isn't going to happen , increase your influence , sure , but things aren't that way at the moment . Exactly , what benefit does a country get by fighting other's war ? None .

When did I mention they are warm enough at the moment ? I said " they are getting so " in my post , keeping in view the recent developments and high level visits by Russian top brass and reciprocated by Islamabad . Russia has offered to invest in various projects and signed a number of agreements , a significant development taking in account the past relations and hostilities . It isn't " basic diplomacy " , it is called " strategic diplomacy " , because they want the same thing which US is asking for " assistance in peace and stability in the region " . Russia considers the Central Asia its backyard and already maintains a number of bases and other facilities in their jurisdiction , why would it need to warm up to CIS countries now ? They are already under the influence of Kremlin and heavily dependent on them , nothing more needs to be done with them . Well , experts in International relations are of the opinion that Russian recent seeking of some sort of " modus vivendi " with Pakistan maybe because of the American strengthening its relation with India . The Moscow has lost significant military deals by now and even though I do not think that is because they are warming up to Islamabad , I still think they want a more balanced approach towards both countries now . So , what do you think " if they are doing it for their own needs and interests " , there's nothing that we seek and we will collaborate with them on good will basis and without keeping our interests in mind ? Of course , no . The world runs on " quid pro quos " and Russians have to provide some , to seek some . No , I am not expecting them to prioritize my country over India but still I am quite certain that they will not remain hostile in future , which means that they would most likely be neutral in times of conflict .

Even though , Moscow denies providing arms to Pakistan officially but covertly it has authorized the sale of many tank parts through third parties and now engines for the JF-17 , did they not know where was it going to used in ? Aren't they aware now because even today Klimov supplies engines and spare parts for the aircraft ? Actually , they are going to design a new engine for the fighter with higher thrust , the reports are in the media . As far as I remember , India strongly protested against the sale of engines back then but they were rejected by the Russian Govt . Claim a thousands things and make excuses for that but that is what happened . The RD-93 powers the workhouse of the Pakistan Airforce . Things change fast in the International arena , who's to say that in the future they will not sell weapons to us openly ?

Geopolitics gets complicated as it starts to involve more countries and you start banking on a whole region for your interests knowing that there are their own interests and other countries already having an influence on them . IAF's sanctioned squadron strength has everything to do with it , otherwise what would you station there with the already depleting strength in the mainland ? We will see that when the base finalizes and the LCA and MMRCA goes through in the future . For now , a military hospital is what it is .

Actually , Chinese have been providing satellite feeds to my country for quite sometime and it is high unlikely that they wouldn't have notified Islamabad if there was anything of concern , because they would consider the base hostile . Islamabad object to Dushanbe's decision and that is all , I know that no further reports or concerns have been expressed by the Govt of Pakistan on that subject so whatever it is , it is more likely something largely ignorable and not a cause of worry .

If you see the INSTC route , you mentioned yourself , it starts from Iran , crosses several countries and is supposed to be a trade route , not a logistics one for resupplying the base . I said that Tehran may be allowing that for now , but in times of conflict , they would more likely prefer to be neutral if hostilities break , because of the relations they have with more countries and with the expanding trade with Pakistan and now their investments in several projects and of course the massive pipeline , there's more evidence to support that instead of relying of reports by Middle Eastern reports * who happen to be sworn enemies of Iran * who if Tehran refuses , the INSTC route other members cant allow you to use the route for military purposes . Leave their isolation in the International community and sanctions for some other thread .

Pakistan doesn't have to rely on any one factor , specially any civil war in Afghanistan which will affect it most spilling into our tribal areas . Through Gwadar we can facilitate trade to CIS bypassing Iran and getting there through China instead . Beijing has taken control of that port and is now funding to expand its operations . Not to mention developing infrastructure in Pakistan and a proposal of railway to the KKH which will eventually help them reducing their dependence on Malacca straits and revive the silk route to the North West China to help develop the region and supply their energy needs from Gulf countries . The expansion of the strategic highway has already taken place . Arab countries prefer not to trade with Iran because of the historic animosity . So , China finds a new route and we get economic prosperity and transit money - a win win situation for both .

Let us just say that if a million soldiers couldn't do nothing in Afghanistan in a decade , then we must not attach any hope with several thousand special forces , again not confirmed , majority of the country is still controlled by Taliban and the Afghan Govt is as non existent as always . If the current state of ANA is any sign for the future , they are merely some criminals provided shiny uniforms with ruthless nature , zero morale , corrupt men , heavy drug use and not a match for the insurgents in the country . Now how that will improve as soon as coalition departs from my country is beyond me , when it is more likely to deteriorate . They are speculated to disintegrate and join with different militias in post 2014 Afghanistan's civil war . You are attaching just too much hope from people who couldn't things in control in ten years and thousands lost , who spend trillions for the armies there and at the end of the war , still want to negotiate with Taliban so badly that they have been allowed to open an office in Qatar and requesting Islamabad's assistance to help them reconcile with insurgents . What does that tell you ? A tell of victory for the coalition ? A becoming of another South Korea ? The situation of the Korean peninsula and its division after the war has no parallel with that of Afghanistan , I do not know where did you figure it out honestly .

The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China , do you think both countries will ever allow you to supply the base from there ? No . That is what I meant by bypassing all countries considering India as hostile because you do not have a common boundary with any of the Central Asian states . I remember not mentioning any C.A country being hostile to India . Again , you have to take an expensive and lengthy route to trade with Central Asia without us . Geography is the culprit here for you .

If it is them practically running the base , then it is their influence which is further expanding and not yours , see you cant even get the supplies by there and hence rely on Moscow to do the job for you , ironic , shall I call it , mate ?

I will leave the conspiracy theory of one man which you take as gospel truth about the ISI out of this thread here , it is certainly of no relevance to the thread at all . You can open another thread for that .

First tell me , why would Oman allow you to open a spying base from there ? Is there a particular reason you can think of or I will be hearing the same " more trade that we can offer " thing here ? It is more likely a listening station to help the maritime ships and maintain local communications , this is what few small towers can do , grossly exaggerated in my opinion . Actually big massive dish antennas are needed for listening stations to accumulate enough signals for analysis . You mentioned the ECHELON as an example of long range surveillance systems in your post seemingly comparing the vast network with little towers . The radomes are being used for very long SIGINT purposes , their range is just too much to compare to some tiny stations . I never said that SIGINT bases have to defy physics to collect signals intelligence , I just said that size is too important here because it helps us determine the energy being consumed by them again for the estimation of their receiving power . Tropospheric scatter is an advanced technology requiring extensive equipment of much large size with too much losses , Non Line of Sight propagation is simply not relevant at all here mostly used for wireless communication and being very imprecise .

High gain dish or billboard antennae are required for tropospheric scatter systems as the propagation losses are very high; only about one billion-billionth (1 x 10−12) of the transmit power is available at the receiver.

Are you sure that you aren't merely mentioning things to make your argument look technical without knowing the limitations and their principle of working ?

Here's the picture for you .

Ra's al Hadd,listening station - Google Maps

Except for 3 towers and desert as far as you look , there's nothing of interest on the whole eastern coast of Oman , if you think you can listen 400 km's away with these relatively tiny little structures without having any idea of transmission power and signal obstruction , then I have nothing further to say on this topic .

Let it advance slowly , it isn't worrying for now after all and post 2014 the region will be very different from what it is now . I assure you on that . Tajiks are even denying the stationing of Indian troops or other foreign troops at the Ayni base , have you read that in the link to the thread I posted ?

I read your posts , it just happens that you tend to complicate things and explain and argue on the same that I have agreed on in my posts As for the second part of your previous posts , I explained to you that it was in answer to another Indian member who said that " they are negotiating a pipeline from Central Asia " and I mentioned that " it cant be done without getting Pakistan on board " , where was the need for your posting so many links confirming Indian interest in the IP project since that was basically what I said that you cant have the pipeline without Islamabad's permission ? I am understanding your posts , you are just very quick to reply and repeat the same argued things again and again , mate .

 

[Mitro]

we should concentrate on Economics and should not worry about Strategic because we are still developing .Now if we have a Airbase in Tajikistan its not bad Ideal but to project to use them against China or Pakistan when we already know TAPI is going through Pakistan and we dont have any direct link to Tajikistan.

There are two types of interests one strategic and the other ecponomic. India has to balance them both. If both of them coincide and is good like the airbase in Tajakistan we should go for it. We will have strategic advantage vis-a-vis china and Pakistan. There is a proposal for a pipe line through Tajikistan.

Chinese are already in tajikistan e.g
China, one of Tajikistan's largest trade partners, has invested over $100 million directly in the Tajikistan mining sector (primarily through Zijin Mining Group and Xinjiang Tacheng International Resources Co Ltd) and over $200 million for the reconstruction of major roads used for trade between the two countries. Additionally, more than 50 Chinese companies are active in Tajikistan and Chinese investments have reached more than $1 billion

Asia Times Online :: Land lease to China upsets Tajiks
Asia Times Online :: Land lease to China upsets Tajiks

There is a strategy called space denial which means occupy the space left by USSR and deny the space for Chinese monopoly,


The reason that Ayni is still idle, many in Dushanbe believe, is Russia: Moscow does not want any other country to have use of the base. "They [Tajik officials] don't know what to do with this airbase. We don't need it for ourselves, but to give it to someone else would create problems with other countries," said Faridoon Khodizoda, a political analyst in Dushanbe.

Information about the base is closely held. The Russian Embassy in Dushanbe did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesman at the Indian Embassy in Dushanbe said he could not comment on Ayni, but referred questions to the Ministry of Defense of Tajikistan. The Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

India has renovated runways and hangars at Ayni, but the Indian government has never publicly stated what its longer-term intentions were for the base. Reports in the Indian press suggested that India hoped to base a squadron of MiG-29 fighter jets there, in an effort to bolster its political clout in Central Asia, and to create a counterweight to Pakistani influence in Afghanistan.

Analysts of India's military suggest those expectations may have been too ambitious. When the base renovations started in 2004, India did not have a clear plan as to how it would eventually utilize the facility, said one source close to the Indian armed forces, whose employer does not allow him to speak on the record. "The point, sadly, remains the same: While the Tajik government has kept doors open, at least in a limited sense, the government here [in India] hasn't quite gotten its act together about precisely what or how to leverage the opportunity," he said.

Why is Tajikistan's Ayni Air Base Idle? | EurasiaNet.org

Russia buys HAL-made radar computers - The Hindu

Is the link, They are also going for avionoics and other stuff related to SU-30MKI, this is the signal that in future both airforces will have common doctrines in Asia. Similarly they are things which are very common in Navy.

 

[bloo]

Alright , then we will see in future when it happens , why go all berserk and exaggerate it now , create encirclement theories where there is none ? The " attack from a foreign base in case of hostilities " was a hypothetical scenario being discussed by some members when I reminded them of the difficulty of resupplying the base currently and the high unlikely case that any country will allow that to happen due to various reasons . I , personally , know that it isn't going to happen , increase your influence , sure , but things aren't that way at the moment . Exactly , what benefit does a country get by fighting other's war ? None .

When did I mention they are warm enough at the moment ? I said " they are getting so " in my post , keeping in view the recent developments and high level visits by Russian top brass and reciprocated by Islamabad . Russia has offered to invest in various projects and signed a number of agreements , a significant development taking in account the past relations and hostilities . It isn't " basic diplomacy " , it is called " strategic diplomacy " , because they want the same thing which US is asking for " assistance in peace and stability in the region " . Russia considers the Central Asia its backyard and already maintains a number of bases and other facilities in their jurisdiction , why would it need to warm up to CIS countries now ? They are already under the influence of Kremlin and heavily dependent on them , nothing more needs to be done with them . Well , experts in International relations are of the opinion that Russian recent seeking of some sort of " modus vivendi " with Pakistan maybe because of the American strengthening its relation with India . The Moscow has lost significant military deals by now and even though I do not think that is because they are warming up to Islamabad , I still think they want a more balanced approach towards both countries now . So , what do you think " if they are doing it for their own needs and interests " , there's nothing that we seek and we will collaborate with them on good will basis and without keeping our interests in mind ? Of course , no . The world runs on " quid pro quos " and Russians have to provide some , to seek some . No , I am not expecting them to prioritize my country over India but still I am quite certain that they will not remain hostile in future , which means that they would most likely be neutral in times of conflict .

Even though , Moscow denies providing arms to Pakistan officially but covertly it has authorized the sale of many tank parts through third parties and now engines for the JF-17 , did they not know where was it going to used in ? Aren't they aware now because even today Klimov supplies engines and spare parts for the aircraft ? Actually , they are going to design a new engine for the fighter with higher thrust , the reports are in the media . As far as I remember , India strongly protested against the sale of engines back then but they were rejected by the Russian Govt . Claim a thousands things and make excuses for that but that is what happened . The RD-93 powers the workhouse of the Pakistan Airforce . Things change fast in the International arena , who's to say that in the future they will not sell weapons to us openly ?

Geopolitics gets complicated as it starts to involve more countries and you start banking on a whole region for your interests knowing that there are their own interests and other countries already having an influence on them . IAF's sanctioned squadron strength has everything to do with it , otherwise what would you station there with the already depleting strength in the mainland ? We will see that when the base finalizes and the LCA and MMRCA goes through in the future . For now , a military hospital is what it is .

Actually , Chinese have been providing satellite feeds to my country for quite sometime and it is high unlikely that they wouldn't have notified Islamabad if there was anything of concern , because they would consider the base hostile . Islamabad object to Dushanbe's decision and that is all , I know that no further reports or concerns have been expressed by the Govt of Pakistan on that subject so whatever it is , it is more likely something largely ignorable and not a cause of worry .

If you see the INSTC route , you mentioned yourself , it starts from Iran , crosses several countries and is supposed to be a trade route , not a logistics one for resupplying the base . I said that Tehran may be allowing that for now , but in times of conflict , they would more likely prefer to be neutral if hostilities break , because of the relations they have with more countries and with the expanding trade with Pakistan and now their investments in several projects and of course the massive pipeline , there's more evidence to support that instead of relying of reports by Middle Eastern reports * who happen to be sworn enemies of Iran * who if Tehran refuses , the INSTC route other members cant allow you to use the route for military purposes . Leave their isolation in the International community and sanctions for some other thread .

Pakistan doesn't have to rely on any one factor , specially any civil war in Afghanistan which will affect it most spilling into our tribal areas . Through Gwadar we can facilitate trade to CIS bypassing Iran and getting there through China instead . Beijing has taken control of that port and is now funding to expand its operations . Not to mention developing infrastructure in Pakistan and a proposal of railway to the KKH which will eventually help them reducing their dependence on Malacca straits and revive the silk route to the North West China to help develop the region and supply their energy needs from Gulf countries . The expansion of the strategic highway has already taken place . Arab countries prefer not to trade with Iran because of the historic animosity . So , China finds a new route and we get economic prosperity and transit money - a win win situation for both .

Let us just say that if a million soldiers couldn't do nothing in Afghanistan in a decade , then we must not attach any hope with several thousand special forces , again not confirmed , majority of the country is still controlled by Taliban and the Afghan Govt is as non existent as always . If the current state of ANA is any sign for the future , they are merely some criminals provided shiny uniforms with ruthless nature , zero morale , corrupt men , heavy drug use and not a match for the insurgents in the country . Now how that will improve as soon as coalition departs from my country is beyond me , when it is more likely to deteriorate . They are speculated to disintegrate and join with different militias in post 2014 Afghanistan's civil war . You are attaching just too much hope from people who couldn't things in control in ten years and thousands lost , who spend trillions for the armies there and at the end of the war , still want to negotiate with Taliban so badly that they have been allowed to open an office in Qatar and requesting Islamabad's assistance to help them reconcile with insurgents . What does that tell you ? A tell of victory for the coalition ? A becoming of another South Korea ? The situation of the Korean peninsula and its division after the war has no parallel with that of Afghanistan , I do not know where did you figure it out honestly .

The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China , do you think both countries will ever allow you to supply the base from there ? No . That is what I meant by bypassing all countries considering India as hostile because you do not have a common boundary with any of the Central Asian states . I remember not mentioning any C.A country being hostile to India . Again , you have to take an expensive and lengthy route to trade with Central Asia without us . Geography is the culprit here for you .

If it is them practically running the base , then it is their influence which is further expanding and not yours , see you cant even get the supplies by there and hence rely on Moscow to do the job for you , ironic , shall I call it , mate ?

I will leave the conspiracy theory of one man which you take as gospel truth about the ISI out of this thread here , it is certainly of no relevance to the thread at all . You can open another thread for that .

First tell me , why would Oman allow you to open a spying base from there ? Is there a particular reason you can think of or I will be hearing the same " more trade that we can offer " thing here ? It is more likely a listening station to help the maritime ships and maintain local communications , this is what few small towers can do , grossly exaggerated in my opinion . Actually big massive dish antennas are needed for listening stations to accumulate enough signals for analysis . You mentioned the ECHELON as an example of long range surveillance systems in your post seemingly comparing the vast network with little towers . The radomes are being used for very long SIGINT purposes , their range is just too much to compare to some tiny stations . I never said that SIGINT bases have to defy physics to collect signals intelligence , I just said that size is too important here because it helps us determine the energy being consumed by them again for the estimation of their receiving power . Tropospheric scatter is an advanced technology requiring extensive equipment of much large size with too much losses , Non Line of Sight propagation is simply not relevant at all here mostly used for wireless communication and being very imprecise .



Are you sure that you aren't merely mentioning things to make your argument look technical without knowing the limitations and their principle of working ?

Here's the picture for you .

Ra's al Hadd,listening station - Google Maps

Except for 3 towers and desert as far as you look , there's nothing of interest on the whole eastern coast of Oman , if you think you can listen 400 km's away with these relatively tiny little structures without having any idea of transmission power and signal obstruction , then I have nothing further to say on this topic .

Let it advance slowly , it isn't worrying for now after all and post 2014 the region will be very different from what it is now . I assure you on that . Tajiks are even denying the stationing of Indian troops or other foreign troops at the Ayni base , have you read that in the link to the thread I posted ?

I read your posts , it just happens that you tend to complicate things and explain and argue on the same that I have agreed on in my posts As for the second part of your previous posts , I explained to you that it was in answer to another Indian member who said that " they are negotiating a pipeline from Central Asia " and I mentioned that " it cant be done without getting Pakistan on board " , where was the need for your posting so many links confirming Indian interest in the IP project since that was basically what I said that you cant have the pipeline without Islamabad's permission ? I am understanding your posts , you are just very quick to reply and repeat the same argued things again and again , mate .

Of course we will see it in the future. But the fact remains that India has its first foreign military base in Tajikistan.
Theories??? well unfortunately for you its not my theory.
India's ambitions to encircle Pakistan - PakTribune
India encircles Pakistan
I am not being over optimistic as to see all the CIS nations to fight our war in times of a contingency. I am hoping that they will co-operate during those times.


Exactly the middle east is already under Kremlin and Pakistan comes in the region too so there's nothing special about their handing an olive branch.
You are saying what I just said, basic diplomacy and its strings.
Exactly a modus vivendi.
As I said however no one is talking about what Russians can do for you or to reap any economical benefits from them, but what Pakistan will do for Russia, coz even I can show stats of China India trade and yet I can gather that China won't support us in times of an insurgency.
And such is the case with Pakistan too.
But again as I said, in future if you are hoping that Russia will remain friendly it will need a lot more than RD-93s and a few "high level" meetings.
And this again seems faaaaar ahead in the future.


Yes of course the Russians knew about it but the point remains that it was a third party sale and the point remains that there is hardly any military equipment sale to Pakistan as of now.
And If you are talking about RD-93MA, it is yet to confirmed to whom the Russians are selling it to.
Was not it that JF-17 was to be powered by the Ws-13 coz of this very reason??

Oh so why won't Russia openly sell arms to Pak in the future?????????

"If someone says otherwise, spit in his face," Rogozin replied when asked whether Russia was planning to sell arms to Pakistan. "We do not deal with your enemies. We don't transfer any arms to them," he said.http://ibnlive.in.com/news/will-not-sell-arms-to-pakistan-says-russia/300451-56.html

I think that's a looooong way out, if you are looking at the future.



You are right geopolitics does get complicated only if you're dependent on continuously using it.
The Tajik military posts will be just a small chip, coz I am very much sure most of what is to be a western front will be in Afghanistan.
Let me tell you if IAF can lease Mig-29s just for a little foothold or can pay $20 Billion for just fighters then they can very much fill the gap as easily, if anything blame the bureaucracy not the ability.
Correction, a 50 bed hospital and 100 Indian military personnel.

I am not saying that China gives or doesn't give satellite feeds to Pakistan.
All I am saying is that if the Indian base in Tajik is a cause of worry why will the Pak government proclaim it to the media?
And as far as I can gather from history, countries are bound to hide their weaknesses.
And yes you are right it can be an unworthy cause to worry about or it can be too worthy a cause to proclaim it to everyone.
Its that simple.

Not unless India gains a foothold in Afghanistan and the case will be same as in 1971 and Kargil resulting in a blockade of Gwadar.

Again you are just too optimistic, do you think every situation will happen all at once like a very convenient coincidence denying Indian Presence?
You actually think that Iran will simultaneously go into a war if ever an insurgency between India and pak arise?
Coz let me tell you that's not even an issue, Iran is not even one of the top oil importers to India, not even top 5.
If Iran is isolated so are you.
The age old habit of denying the reporter doesn't change facts.


Why not? Americans are probably leaving as I type nothing major has happened up till now.
And again no one attached hopes to S.Korea either, when the belligerent were the Soviet and the Chinese.
And you are over exaggerating I wouldn't go as far as to say that the Taliban control most of Afghanistan.
While the American occupation of Afghanistan the untrained ANA were never given that much importance until now.
The drawdown plans will involve extensive training of the ANA the likes of which were not done during the last decade.
As you must have gathered from the news that India too is training the higher level among the ANA, i.e. the officers the real backbone of any force and only recently did Afghanistan sent 150 Afghan Army officers for training which will include the IMA and CIJWS.
Again its not just India that wants to get involved but the countries surrounding it too.
Your point of view remains close minded as you compare the ANA of the past to the ANA of the present, true there are still many problems but that is what is being looked into.
Reconciling tells me that ANA is still not strong enough to maintain the country however the Talibans are not strong enough either to take over.
The post 2014 plans include the self sufficiency of the the police,ANA and the Afghan special forces so they can fight their own fight.
And yes it is confirmed that special forces and other US military assets will be there post 2014.

You are right I cannot compare the Talibans to the North Koreans after all the koreans can make ballistic missile and supernotes, the talibans can reverse engineer Kalashnikovs and propagate drugs.
I know I am hopeful basically coz nothing major has happened as of yet and let me remind you a fallen Afghanistan will probably hurt Pakistan more than a stabilized Afghanistan, you are so intent on denying Indian influence that you have forgotten what a civil war would do to Pak.
A Taliban controlled region holds more danger to Pak than anyone else.
Its almost a win win situation for us.
Afghanistan stabilizes we get a foothold it doesn't it spreads like cancer to Pak.
Afghanistan to Pakistan is what we call 'in cauda venenum'.


Apart from the fact that Oman and India has great relations and a 1000km underwater gas pipeline gas is underway does solve most of the problems.
But here's the big picture, IN has been utilising Oman's ports as bases for conducting anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and defense cooperation between both the countries are at an all time high specially after both countries signed a defence agreement in 2008 which is why I believe that Oman will support India.

"The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China"
What?
So there's nothing called an ocean or the air? Simple, if ever we'll go around it.
But that won't need to come into play after Afghanistan stabilizes a strategic foothold will be all that is necessary to resupply on its own.

Yeah, you can fervently hope so but the military hospital recently transported won't come back just coz you hope so.
So yes it is our influence that trumped in the end.
Again you can keep on ranting about what is not present now but I know I won't see you in a similar thread when India does succeed and that will not be an irony.

Yeah definitely everything out of the ordinary can never concern the ISI, they are white as milk so a legit PAKISTANI journalist and revolutionary's writing become conspiracies automatically

Oh dear.Never mind I'll repeat whatever I said as I am confused as to what you see wrong in it.Either way I'll stand by what I said,

"I am basically denying ur claim of a SIGINT setup having to defy physics to cover large distances.
If you know about NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter then nothing is beyond physics."

as you said interception if 400 miles is not possible for a SIGINT setup.

Alright since you are going there let me explain to you why I mentioned Tropospheric scatter.
Tropospheric scatter systems are basically used by militaries for their very low interception rate but because they are fixed and antennae alignment is an absolute must it is not always possible for naval uses as for which the listening station in Oman possibly is used for, i.e naval COMINT and/or SIGINT.
It basically is a process of transhorizon communication which is more or less not possible in ship to shore based communication.
Forget that, history proves that even transhorizon communication have been intercepted.

Fernmeldeweitverkehrsstelle der Bundeswehr(FmWVStBw) is a SIGINT collection station that was made in the 1988 to intercept tropospheric-scattered radio links of the erstwhile USSR and Europe.
If my memory serves me right one such tropospheric scatter network system of the USSR during the period was P-417 (I don't remember the correct name but it was something called P-417).
It had relay chains of more than 1000km and was built in the late 1970s and it is very much possible that FmWVStBw had been intercepting the P-417 links.

And if you got flabbergasted by the wiki quote then let me remind you size doesn't matter as there are smaller installations of Dipole antennae and high-gain antennae.
As for NLOS propagation, it is not exactly imprecise.
And let me just rephrase what I just said earlier.
I meant to say NLOS propagation path not NLOS propagation.
As per the declassified CRESS(COMBINED RECON, SURVEILLANCE & SIGINT) model NLOS propagation path IS a necessary calculation in SIGINT.

You have just taken my post out of context coz nowhere did I say that NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter are used in SIGINT.I basically wanted to say that NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter are two factors among many considered when setting up a SIGINT platform and I mentioned they clearly show that Signal Intelligence is possible over long distances.

So yes mate I do know what i am talking about.

As for your photo.
The report and the photo you showed do not coincide.
The report says, "Located on an isolated rocky plateau just 2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints".
And the towers are hardly half a kilometer away from the shore.
The map we are seeing is maybe years old and its efficiency depends on when it was updated.
You can use the Google Distance Measurement Tool to see for yourself.
So I stand by what I said we still don't what the the listening post looks like.
As far as I know the Oman listening station will possibly have new antennae like that in Madagascar or will acquire it in the future. The report also says India plans to plant more such stations in Maldives,Seychelles and Mauritius.


Yes you are correct as of now it is probably nothing to worry about, but as I said its status still remains as the 1st Indian military base outside of India.
Post 2014, you have more to worry than we do.
And yes I did read your link, however your link also states "Tajikistan officially launching negotiations with Russia to discuss possible deployment of Russian military at Ayni.", which may mean they are open to the suggestion.
BTW your link is quite old, as of Apr 18, 2013 the news reads,

India already has over 100 Indian military personnel stationed at the Ayni airbase in Tajikistan.........................................................Defence ministry sources say two of the newly-acquired C-130J "Super Hercules" aircraft of the IAF airlifted medical stores, equipment and 55 personnel over the last month to establish the "India-Tajik Friendship Hospital" in southern Tajikistan.

I believe that you have to see all the perspectives to prove a certain point, to you it may seem confusing or like I'm trying to complicate matters or such, but all I'm trying to do is is prove my point by being as much unbiased as possible.
You are just doing the same thing you are blaming me of doing, i.e. ranting on the same thing.
Again I agreed to the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline on the very 1st post itself..............again I WAS NEVER DENYING ANYTHING YOU SAID.
If you would have read my link before replying, you would have known that my point was that Iran was eager to bring in India and NOT the other way round and the other alternative to not involve Pakistan was an underwater pipeline, that's it.
Yeah of course I reply fast, I have a lot of free time right about now & I'm continuously on the net when I'm home so yes.
I don't believe you should have a problem with that too, again if I am bringing the same thing over and over again that must mean ur reply was not satisfactory and nothing else.
And please you are replying just as quick.

 

[Secur]

Of course we will see it in the future. But the fact remains that India has its first foreign military base in Tajikistan.
Theories??? well unfortunately for you its not my theory.
India's ambitions to encircle Pakistan - PakTribune
India encircles Pakistan
I am not being over optimistic as to see all the CIS nations to fight our war in times of a contingency. I am hoping that they will co-operate during those times.


Exactly the middle east is already under Kremlin and Pakistan comes in the region too so there's nothing special about their handing an olive branch.
You are saying what I just said, basic diplomacy and its strings.
Exactly a modus vivendi.
As I said however no one is talking about what Russians can do for you or to reap any economical benefits from them, but what Pakistan will do for Russia, coz even I can show stats of China India trade and yet I can gather that China won't support us in times of an insurgency.
And such is the case with Pakistan too.
But again as I said, in future if you are hoping that Russia will remain friendly it will need a lot more than RD-93s and a few "high level" meetings.
And this again seems faaaaar ahead in the future.


Yes of course the Russians knew about it but the point remains that it was a third party sale and the point remains that there is hardly any military equipment sale to Pakistan as of now.
And If you are talking about RD-93MA, it is yet to confirmed to whom the Russians are selling it to.
Was not it that JF-17 was to be powered by the Ws-13 coz of this very reason??

Oh so why won't Russia openly sell arms to Pak in the future?????????



I think that's a looooong way out, if you are looking at the future.



You are right geopolitics does get complicated only if you're dependent on continuously using it.
The Tajik military posts will be just a small chip, coz I am very much sure most of what is to be a western front will be in Afghanistan.
Let me tell you if IAF can lease Mig-29s just for a little foothold or can pay $20 Billion for just fighters then they can very much fill the gap as easily, if anything blame the bureaucracy not the ability.
Correction, a 50 bed hospital and 100 Indian military personnel.

I am not saying that China gives or doesn't give satellite feeds to Pakistan.
All I am saying is that if the Indian base in Tajik is a cause of worry why will the Pak government proclaim it to the media?
And as far as I can gather from history, countries are bound to hide their weaknesses.
And yes you are right it can be an unworthy cause to worry about or it can be too worthy a cause to proclaim it to everyone.
Its that simple.

Not unless India gains a foothold in Afghanistan and the case will be same as in 1971 and Kargil resulting in a blockade of Gwadar.

Again you are just too optimistic, do you think every situation will happen all at once like a very convenient coincidence denying Indian Presence?
You actually think that Iran will simultaneously go into a war if ever an insurgency between India and pak arise?
Coz let me tell you that's not even an issue, Iran is not even one of the top oil importers to India, not even top 5.
If Iran is isolated so are you.
The age old habit of denying the reporter doesn't change facts.


Why not? Americans are probably leaving as I type nothing major has happened up till now.
And again no one attached hopes to S.Korea either, when the belligerent were the Soviet and the Chinese.
And you are over exaggerating I wouldn't go as far as to say that the Taliban control most of Afghanistan.
While the American occupation of Afghanistan the untrained ANA were never given that much importance until now.
The drawdown plans will involve extensive training of the ANA the likes of which were not done during the last decade.
As you must have gathered from the news that India too is training the higher level among the ANA, i.e. the officers the real backbone of any force and only recently did Afghanistan sent 150 Afghan Army officers for training which will include the IMA and CIJWS.
Again its not just India that wants to get involved but the countries surrounding it too.
Your point of view remains close minded as you compare the ANA of the past to the ANA of the present, true there are still many problems but that is what is being looked into.
Reconciling tells me that ANA is still not strong enough to maintain the country however the Talibans are not strong enough either to take over.
The post 2014 plans include the self sufficiency of the the police,ANA and the Afghan special forces so they can fight their own fight.
And yes it is confirmed that special forces and other US military assets will be there post 2014.

You are right I cannot compare the Talibans to the North Koreans after all the koreans can make ballistic missile and supernotes, the talibans can reverse engineer Kalashnikovs and propagate drugs.
I know I am hopeful basically coz nothing major has happened as of yet and let me remind you a fallen Afghanistan will probably hurt Pakistan more than a stabilized Afghanistan, you are so intent on denying Indian influence that you have forgotten what a civil war would do to Pak.
A Taliban controlled region holds more danger to Pak than anyone else.
Its almost a win win situation for us.
Afghanistan stabilizes we get a foothold it doesn't it spreads like cancer to Pak.
Afghanistan to Pakistan is what we call 'in cauda venenum'.


Apart from the fact that Oman and India has great relations and a 1000km underwater gas pipeline gas is underway does solve most of the problems.
But here's the big picture, IN has been utilising Oman's ports as bases for conducting anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and defense cooperation between both the countries are at an all time high specially after both countries signed a defence agreement in 2008 which is why I believe that Oman will support India.

"The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China"
What?
So there's nothing called an ocean or the air? Simple, if ever we'll go around it.
But that won't need to come into play after Afghanistan stabilizes a strategic foothold will be all that is necessary to resupply on its own.

Yeah, you can fervently hope so but the military hospital recently transported won't come back just coz you hope so.
So yes it is our influence that trumped in the end.
Again you can keep on ranting about what is not present now but I know I won't see you in a similar thread when India does succeed and that will not be an irony.

Yeah definitely everything out of the ordinary can never concern the ISI, they are white as milk so a legit PAKISTANI journalist and revolutionary's writing become conspiracies automatically

Oh dear.Never mind I'll repeat whatever I said as I am confused as to what you see wrong in it.Either way I'll stand by what I said,

"I am basically denying ur claim of a SIGINT setup having to defy physics to cover large distances.
If you know about NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter then nothing is beyond physics."

as you said interception if 400 miles is not possible for a SIGINT setup.

Alright since you are going there let me explain to you why I mentioned Tropospheric scatter.
Tropospheric scatter systems are basically used by militaries for their very low interception rate but because they are fixed and antennae alignment is an absolute must it is not always possible for naval uses as for which the listening station in Oman possibly is used for, i.e naval COMINT and/or SIGINT.
It basically is a process of transhorizon communication which is more or less not possible in ship to shore based communication.
Forget that, history proves that even transhorizon communication have been intercepted.

Fernmeldeweitverkehrsstelle der Bundeswehr(FmWVStBw) is a SIGINT collection station that was made in the 1988 to intercept tropospheric-scattered radio links of the erstwhile USSR and Europe.
If my memory serves me right one such tropospheric scatter network system of the USSR during the period was P-417 (I don't remember the correct name but it was something called P-417).
It had relay chains of more than 1000km and was built in the late 1970s and it is very much possible that FmWVStBw had been intercepting the P-417 links.

And if you got flabbergasted by the wiki quote then let me remind you size doesn't matter as there are smaller installations of Dipole antennae and high-gain antennae.
As for NLOS propagation, it is not exactly imprecise.
And let me just rephrase what I just said earlier.
I meant to say NLOS propagation path not NLOS propagation.
As per the declassified CRESS(COMBINED RECON, SURVEILLANCE & SIGINT) model NLOS propagation path IS a necessary calculation in SIGINT.

You have just taken my post out of context coz nowhere did I say that NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter are used in SIGINT.I basically wanted to say that NLOS propagation and Tropospheric scatter are two factors among many considered when setting up a SIGINT platform and I mentioned they clearly show that Signal Intelligence is possible over long distances.

So yes mate I do know what i am talking about.

As for your photo.
The report and the photo you showed do not coincide.
The report says, "Located on an isolated rocky plateau just 2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints".
And the towers are hardly half a kilometer away from the shore.
The map we are seeing is maybe years old and its efficiency depends on when it was updated.
You can use the Google Distance Measurement Tool to see for yourself.
So I stand by what I said we still don't what the the listening post looks like.
As far as I know the Oman listening station will possibly have new antennae like that in Madagascar or will acquire it in the future. The report also says India plans to plant more such stations in Maldives,Seychelles and Mauritius.


Yes you are correct as of now it is probably nothing to worry about, but as I said its status still remains as the 1st Indian military base outside of India.
Post 2014, you have more to worry than we do.
And yes I did read your link, however your link also states "Tajikistan officially launching negotiations with Russia to discuss possible deployment of Russian military at Ayni.", which may mean they are open to the suggestion.
BTW your link is quite old, as of Apr 18, 2013 the news reads,



I believe that you have to see all the perspectives to prove a certain point, to you it may seem confusing or like I'm trying to complicate matters or such, but all I'm trying to do is is prove my point by being as much unbiased as possible.
You are just doing the same thing you are blaming me of doing, i.e. ranting on the same thing.
Again I agreed to the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline on the very 1st post itself..............again I WAS NEVER DENYING ANYTHING YOU SAID.
If you would have read my link before replying, you would have known that my point was that Iran was eager to bring in India and NOT the other way round and the other alternative to not involve Pakistan was an underwater pipeline, that's it.
Yeah of course I reply fast, I have a lot of free time right about now & I'm continuously on the net when I'm home so yes.
I don't believe you should have a problem with that too, again if I am bringing the same thing over and over again that must mean ur reply was not satisfactory and nothing else.
And please you are replying just as quick.

Looking at the date the negotiations for the base started and the current position now , let me just say that the progress is not satisfactory even for the Indian authorities , with the Russians wary of allowing India another base , it is going to be hard time getting it for military purposes .

Well unfortunately for you , you haven't read your own links you posted carefully . Because the article merely talks about the placement of Indian troops , naval and air power and Cold Start and nothing which is new or not already known . The second one talks about the transit trade the Govt of Pakistan has allowed you with Afghanistan which is again strictly regulated by the state and nothing of worry since it passes our territory . It does mention Indian forays into CIS countries but I fail to see how has it already succeeded when one base is practically being operated by Russia and the second houses some 100 personnel and a military hospital .

Who told you the Middle East is under Kremlin ? Since their independence , they have been heavily under the influence of US to the extent that they rarely buy any Russian weapons let alone be under Moscow's influence . Otherwise it would have been Petrorubbel and not petrodollar . I am not saying what you said about growing Russia-Pakistan relations , its " strategic diplomacy " now with Pakistan because the coalition's departure from Afghanistan draws nearer . It may have been basic diplomacy until 2007 but things have changed fast since then . If Russia is asking Pakistan for something , then what difficulty are you facing in accepting the fact that even Pakistan will seek something for the cooperation it provides ? I ask you to research a little more about it . So , getting Russia not-hostile isn't a hard job for us as you think . 2014 is far ahead in the future ? I do not think so . India and China trade statistics are hardly of any use , since you are still hostile towards each other , trade doesn't change that .

So , if the Russians despite knowing where the RD-93's were going to be used into , allowed the sale to a country hostile to India , despite New Dehli's strong protest , what does that tell you ? Mate , we purchased 500 engines for our JF-17 with spares , imagine the extent of the military deal . Yes , I was referring to RD-93MA and it doesn't need confirmation of any sort because there's only one country which is using that engine family in its aircraft . I said Russia may sell weapons to Pakistan openly in the future , who knows seeing , what they are doing now or do you expect our economy to remain the same in the future ?

"If someone says otherwise, spit in his face," Rogozin replied when asked whether Russia was planning to sell arms to Pakistan. "We do not deal with your enemies. We don't transfer any arms to them," he said.

Actually , you should go and spit in his face because the same country sells Pakistan weapons by third parties such as Ukraine . Did he mention China in his speech ? Did he tell the Indian public how much weapons of what sort have been sold by the late USSR and now Russia to China ? From nuclear technology to submarines , from aircraft to SAM , what is it that Moscow hasn't provided Beijing till now ? But if you are happy with his " we do not deal with your enemies " statement then I shouldn't spoil your happiness .

Pakistan Govt never made a huge noise to the world , it simple did what every country does expressing its reservations on the issue , moreover it warned Dushanbe back then of the consequences of allowing anti-Pakistan activity from its soil and knowing our conventional power , I am quite sure that Tajikistan now understands what kind of retaliation it can face . India protests to every weapon sale to Pakistan and literally everything involving my country , is it your weakness going by your logic ?

How are you getting a foothold in Afghanistan and by that blockading Gwadar is beyond me ! Are the Iranians allowing that just because you provided money for a port ? The same Tehran which is investing heavily in Gwadar refinery , IP pipeline and other projects in Pakistan . Seeing as how Afghanistan is unstable as ever and not expected to get better in the future , there's no question of Indians operating from there . I said " Iran " will remain neutral most likely , nothing about simultaneously going to war .

How are we isolated , if I may know ? Are we sanctioned , barred from the International system of banking / receiving payments , are there embargoes on us on importing stuff / weapons ?

How will the things improve suddenly is the question here . The coalition arrived in 2001 and begins its campaign then spending trillions and loosing thousands of men since then and today when more than a decade has passed , they couldn't control Afghanistan to the extent that majority parts of that country are still controlled by insurgents and the Govt is simply not there since the President has no real power outside Kabul . I asked you how is that a tell of victory or story of triumph when they have to negotiate with Taliban so desperately now that they are allowed to open an office in Qatar ? Do winners usually negotiate , that too US which has a policy of " not negotiating with terrorists " ?

As for Taliban claim , that isn't mine , I merely quoted it from a report .

The International Council on Security and Development, which has fulltime offices in Afghanistan, said in a report that Taliban fighters have advanced out of their bases in the south and east and are infiltrating Kabul at will.“The Taliban are now dictating terms in Afghanistan, both politically and militarily,” Paul Burton, ICOS Director of Policy, said. “There is a real danger the Taliban will simply overrun Afghanistan.”The presence of the Islamist group in Afghanistan has increased from 54 to 72 percent over the past year, according to the report.

Virginia M. Moncrieff: Taliban Support Increasing, Holds 72 % Of Afghanistan: Report

I know the impractical " abandoning " the country plan and the delusional people who believe that things will improve after that , when things didn't improve when the coalition were there . Extensive training of ANA is not new , it has been going since the year the Kabul fell , so what is the result ? The same ANA carries out green-on-blue attacks and smuggles drugs for the corrupt Afghan Govt , their progress against militants is apparent to all . Can they fight without continued support from US troops and air support ? . My point of view is not close minded , it is sadly realistic . I see the grim situation in the country and do not expect ANA to take charge of Afghanistan when the coalition departs . No one expects the Taliban to take over , experts more speculate an open civil war between different factions supported by different countries . They Americans may be present after 2014 , but if a million couldn't do nothing then I do not expect a couple thousand to make any difference , sorry .

Actually , you postulated Afghanistan becoming another South Korea when there is just no parallel , do not twist it now . I know what a failed Afghanistan would mean for the region , I remember mentioning in my post how the violence can spill into tribal areas and cause problem for us , so we will co-operate with them whilst trying to deny India influence .

Oman is a neutral country in the Middle East , if you do not know that . It maintains excellent relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran , without making anyone an enemy . The same Muscat has warm and brotherly relations with Islamabad too . I do not see India-Oman relations causing any problem for us . As for the pipeline from Oman to India , it is impractical and expensive as of now and as of yet just a proposal without any development . Oman similarly allows Pakistan Navy to refuel and conduct anti piracy operations , what is the big thing here ? They like to maintain their neutrality . Defense agreements are signed regularly between countries , doesn't mean this guarantees their support in times of war .

"The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China" is still valid . Going round and round in circles on this-and-that route wont change the ground reality . Yes , there are air and sea ways which I explained myself but they are expensive and rely on just too many countries and thus complicate things .

If your influence trumped by placing a military hospital in a lonely outpost in a remote location as of now , then good for you . Well , when you succeed , your media will make too much noise about it and blow the trumpet all over , we will see it then . Right now , you are just counting the chickens before they hatch .

I never said that a SIGINT setup cant cover long distance , read my post carefully again , since I mentioned the Menwith hill myself , it makes no sense to mention that . I just said that the distance that you are trying to cover and listen to communications isn't done by merely 2-3 small towers in a barren desert . Tropospheric scatter requires extensive equipment since the propagation losses are very high , nothing what I can see in the picture . Size does matter , there is a reason why cant these spying stations be kept discrete and secret that too which are in open deserts because of their massive size . Dipole and high gain antennae still cant give you the necessary range . I can post dozens of pictures of different SIGINT setups and their vastness , signifying and adding weight to the argument that to cover large distances , one has to make it big !

High gain dish or billboard antennae are required for tropospheric scatter systems as the propagation losses are very high; only about one billion-billionth (1 x 10−12) of the transmit power is available at the receiver.

Do you see anything remotely comparative in the picture ?

Forget all that , learn something about military communications using " encryption " which is almost impossible to crack , unless someone actually divulges the key himself , just a scenario which doesn't happen . Current ones use 512 bit AES encryption .

The report clearly mentions " Ra's Al Hadd listening station " giving its exact location in Oman which is what the picture mentions and shows , the area of " Al Had " is well known being the site of a famous resort and fort . Otherwise , there's nothing worth mentioning on the whole eastern Omani coast , you can search it for yourself . Maybe it is just some " radio transmission " towers exaggerated beyond limits of being what-not . Whatever the reports mention is not my concern , the location it mentions is exactly that . As for the map data , you can check the date on which the image was taken in the Google link I posted , it is regularly updated and not usually older than 3 months at best , so I do not see any recent developments since these towers have been here in the same state for long ( check archives ) .

I never said the opposite , I said for now its a lonely outpost in a remote area dependent on literally couple of countries for its operations , not a good bet .

Well I have no problem with you replying fast or explaining my already explained post , I just mentioned it to you because I had to repeat the same thing again all over . I told you " you cant get a pipeline without having Pakistan onboard " , I am not sure how it was unsatisfactory . But if you do not find it so , you can always reply . No problems with that at all .

 

[bloo]

Looking at the date the negotiations for the base started and the current position now , let me just say that the progress is not satisfactory even for the Indian authorities , with the Russians wary of allowing India another base , it is going to be hard time getting it for military purposes .

Well unfortunately for you , you haven't read your own links you posted carefully . Because the article merely talks about the placement of Indian troops , naval and air power and Cold Start and nothing which is new or not already known . The second one talks about the transit trade the Govt of Pakistan has allowed you with Afghanistan which is again strictly regulated by the state and nothing of worry since it passes our territory . It does mention Indian forays into CIS countries but I fail to see how has it already succeeded when one base is practically being operated by Russia and the second houses some 100 personnel and a military hospital .

Who told you the Middle East is under Kremlin ? Since their independence , they have been heavily under the influence of US to the extent that they rarely buy any Russian weapons let alone be under Moscow's influence . Otherwise it would have been Petrorubbel and not petrodollar . I am not saying what you said about growing Russia-Pakistan relations , its " strategic diplomacy " now with Pakistan because the coalition's departure from Afghanistan draws nearer . It may have been basic diplomacy until 2007 but things have changed fast since then . If Russia is asking Pakistan for something , then what difficulty are you facing in accepting the fact that even Pakistan will seek something for the cooperation it provides ? I ask you to research a little more about it . So , getting Russia not-hostile isn't a hard job for us as you think . 2014 is far ahead in the future ? I do not think so . India and China trade statistics are hardly of any use , since you are still hostile towards each other , trade doesn't change that .

So , if the Russians despite knowing where the RD-93's were going to be used into , allowed the sale to a country hostile to India , despite New Dehli's strong protest , what does that tell you ? Mate , we purchased 500 engines for our JF-17 with spares , imagine the extent of the military deal . Yes , I was referring to RD-93MA and it doesn't need confirmation of any sort because there's only one country which is using that engine family in its aircraft . I said Russia may sell weapons to Pakistan openly in the future , who knows seeing , what they are doing now or do you expect our economy to remain the same in the future ?



Actually , you should go and spit in his face because the same country sells Pakistan weapons by third parties such as Ukraine . Did he mention China in his speech ? Did he tell the Indian public how much weapons of what sort have been sold by the late USSR and now Russia to China ? From nuclear technology to submarines , from aircraft to SAM , what is it that Moscow hasn't provided Beijing till now ? But if you are happy with his " we do not deal with your enemies " statement then I shouldn't spoil your happiness .

Pakistan Govt never made a huge noise to the world , it simple did what every country does expressing its reservations on the issue , moreover it warned Dushanbe back then of the consequences of allowing anti-Pakistan activity from its soil and knowing our conventional power , I am quite sure that Tajikistan now understands what kind of retaliation it can face . India protests to every weapon sale to Pakistan and literally everything involving my country , is it your weakness going by your logic ?

How are you getting a foothold in Afghanistan and by that blockading Gwadar is beyond me ! Are the Iranians allowing that just because you provided money for a port ? The same Tehran which is investing heavily in Gwadar refinery , IP pipeline and other projects in Pakistan . Seeing as how Afghanistan is unstable as ever and not expected to get better in the future , there's no question of Indians operating from there . I said " Iran " will remain neutral most likely , nothing about simultaneously going to war .

How are we isolated , if I may know ? Are we sanctioned , barred from the International system of banking / receiving payments , are there embargoes on us on importing stuff / weapons ?

How will the things improve suddenly is the question here . The coalition arrived in 2001 and begins its campaign then spending trillions and loosing thousands of men since then and today when more than a decade has passed , they couldn't control Afghanistan to the extent that majority parts of that country are still controlled by insurgents and the Govt is simply not there since the President has no real power outside Kabul . I asked you how is that a tell of victory or story of triumph when they have to negotiate with Taliban so desperately now that they are allowed to open an office in Qatar ? Do winners usually negotiate , that too US which has a policy of " not negotiating with terrorists " ?

As for Taliban claim , that isn't mine , I merely quoted it from a report .

The International Council on Security and Development, which has fulltime offices in Afghanistan, said in a report that Taliban fighters have advanced out of their bases in the south and east and are infiltrating Kabul at will.“The Taliban are now dictating terms in Afghanistan, both politically and militarily,” Paul Burton, ICOS Director of Policy, said. “There is a real danger the Taliban will simply overrun Afghanistan.”The presence of the Islamist group in Afghanistan has increased from 54 to 72 percent over the past year, according to the report.

Virginia M. Moncrieff: Taliban Support Increasing, Holds 72 % Of Afghanistan: Report

I know the impractical " abandoning " the country plan and the delusional people who believe that things will improve after that , when things didn't improve when the coalition were there . Extensive training of ANA is not new , it has been going since the year the Kabul fell , so what is the result ? The same ANA carries out green-on-blue attacks and smuggles drugs for the corrupt Afghan Govt , their progress against militants is apparent to all . Can they fight without continued support from US troops and air support ? . My point of view is not close minded , it is sadly realistic . I see the grim situation in the country and do not expect ANA to take charge of Afghanistan when the coalition departs . No one expects the Taliban to take over , experts more speculate an open civil war between different factions supported by different countries . They Americans may be present after 2014 , but if a million couldn't do nothing then I do not expect a couple thousand to make any difference , sorry .

Actually , you postulated Afghanistan becoming another South Korea when there is just no parallel , do not twist it now . I know what a failed Afghanistan would mean for the region , I remember mentioning in my post how the violence can spill into tribal areas and cause problem for us , so we will co-operate with them whilst trying to deny India influence .

Oman is a neutral country in the Middle East , if you do not know that . It maintains excellent relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran , without making anyone an enemy . The same Muscat has warm and brotherly relations with Islamabad too . I do not see India-Oman relations causing any problem for us . As for the pipeline from Oman to India , it is impractical and expensive as of now and as of yet just a proposal without any development . Oman similarly allows Pakistan Navy to refuel and conduct anti piracy operations , what is the big thing here ? They like to maintain their neutrality . Defense agreements are signed regularly between countries , doesn't mean this guarantees their support in times of war .

"The immediate and easiest route to the CIS goes from Pakistan and China" is still valid . Going round and round in circles on this-and-that route wont change the ground reality . Yes , there are air and sea ways which I explained myself but they are expensive and rely on just too many countries and thus complicate things .

If your influence trumped by placing a military hospital in a lonely outpost in a remote location as of now , then good for you . Well , when you succeed , your media will make too much noise about it and blow the trumpet all over , we will see it then . Right now , you are just counting the chickens before they hatch .

I never said that a SIGINT setup cant cover long distance , read my post carefully again , since I mentioned the Menwith hill myself , it makes no sense to mention that . I just said that the distance that you are trying to cover and listen to communications isn't done by merely 2-3 small towers in a barren desert . Tropospheric scatter requires extensive equipment since the propagation losses are very high , nothing what I can see in the picture . Size does matter , there is a reason why cant these spying stations be kept discrete and secret that too which are in open deserts because of their massive size . Dipole and high gain antennae still cant give you the necessary range . I can post dozens of pictures of different SIGINT setups and their vastness , signifying and adding weight to the argument that to cover large distances , one has to make it big !



Do you see anything remotely comparative in the picture ?

Forget all that , learn something about military communications using " encryption " which is almost impossible to crack , unless someone actually divulges the key himself , just a scenario which doesn't happen . Current ones use 512 bit AES encryption .

The report clearly mentions " Ra's Al Hadd listening station " giving its exact location in Oman which is what the picture mentions and shows , the area of " Al Had " is well known being the site of a famous resort and fort . Otherwise , there's nothing worth mentioning on the whole eastern Omani coast , you can search it for yourself . Maybe it is just some " radio transmission " towers exaggerated beyond limits of being what-not . Whatever the reports mention is not my concern , the location it mentions is exactly that . As for the map data , you can check the date on which the image was taken in the Google link I posted , it is regularly updated and not usually older than 3 months at best , so I do not see any recent developments since these towers have been here in the same state for long ( check archives ) .

I never said the opposite , I said for now its a lonely outpost in a remote area dependent on literally couple of countries for its operations , not a good bet .

Well I have no problem with you replying fast or explaining my already explained post , I just mentioned it to you because I had to repeat the same thing again all over . I told you " you cant get a pipeline without having Pakistan onboard " , I am not sure how it was unsatisfactory . But if you do not find it so , you can always reply . No problems with that at all .

Well as they say patience is a virtue, coz you'll find it when the time does come until then lets just agree to disagree or as you said a "modus vivendi", coz frankly we ain't goin nowhere.

Oh really.......
You seem to have "missed" out a few things, or maybe "missed" is an understatement

I URGE you to read it again its more than the placement of troops.

Diplomatically it is well placed in the world comity of nations and enjoys best of relations with world powers as well as with the Muslim world. Till 1990 it was strategic partner of former Soviet Union. After latter's demise India snuggled into the lap of USA and became its strategic partner but without damaging its relations with Russia. It also developed close ties with Israel which has over a period of time become India's biggest arms supplier. India then mended fences with China by pushing border dispute in Himalayan region to the back-burner and promoted trade. India got closer to Iran when Afghanistan was under the rule of Taliban and Afghan Northern Alliance (NA) leadership had taken refuge in Tehran. However, Afghanistan under anti-India and pro-Pakistan Taliban rule was a huge loss for India. In anticipation of a regime change in Kabul, it started providing full support to NA leaders during their period of exile. India is now a strategic partner of Afghanistan where Pakistan's influence has diminished considerably.

In marked contrast to its high standing across the globe where it shows a humane face and claims to be the champion of democracy and secularism, India doesn't enjoy good reputation within South Asia where its interests clash with neighboring countries. It has used Chankyan tactics to deceive, beguile or blackmail its adversaries or has used force to browbeat the smaller states and make them submit to its wishes. Among its neighbors, Pakistan is its arch rival since it refuses to accept India's supremacy and wants relationship on equal basis. India has still not reconciled with the existence of Pakistan and keeps hatching conspiracies and even going to war to undo Pakistan.

Out of 13 Corps, seven Indian Corps are deployed against Pakistan. Majority of its airbases are also poised against Pakistan and its Navy is geared toward blocking Karachi in the event of war. Besides equipping its forces with latest weaponry and technology, India is refurbishing the obsolete military equipment with US-Israel efforts. Indian defence budget is increasing annually at an alarming rate. India has since long been aspiring to turn Pakistan into a captive Indian market and to encircle Pakistan. It has partially encircled Pakistan after occupying two-thirds Kashmir, which overlooks AJK, and Siachen Glacier which dominates Gilgit-Baltistan, and substantially enhancing its naval presence in the Indian Ocean to turn Arabian Sea as its exclusive domain so as to quarantine Pakistan. After opening Pakistan specific consulates in Afghanistan and in Iranian provinces bordering Pakistan for the purposes of sabotage and subversion, and helping Iran in building Chahbahar Port and linking it with Indian constructed Highway Delaram-Zaranj in Afghanistan, its strategic encirclement plan is near completion.

I am dwelling at length on the new Transit Trade Accord because it is a part of the India's long-cherished dream of turning Pakistan into its market and encircling Pakistan from war point of view.

Again read it, these things are not to be looked at thru militaristic point of view, an economic warfare happens slowly.

You can keep denying facts of what it is NOT possible now with Ayni and Farkhor but when the time does come u won't be surprised.



Please refrain from premature evaluation I meant under the radar not literally under Kremlin.
Russian-Central Asian Security Relations | Russian Military Reform

even Pakistan will seek something for the cooperation it provides ?

well it is getting all the "invest in various projects and signed a number of agreements" you wanted right?
It seems very difficult that Pakistan will ask for Russian negligence during a Indo-Pak war, thats what I wanted to say.
I didn't mean 2014 to be far ahead, I meant the time when Russia will sit back when India and Pak will, if ever face off.
That is as I said faaaaaar ahead in the future.
Trade does change a few things specially if India's trade with China trumps all other countries' trade with it, as predicted in BRICS.


As for RD-93MA there's the Mig29 or the Mig-35 which can use it and have you seen the list of countries that operate the Mig29 and can you guess how many countries are vying for upgradation?
Until then there's nothing on the card.
Pakistani economy is in dire straits to say the least and what is it to say that won't be even worse in the future.


Well China maybe a tough contender but it is stable so yeah it is our practical enemy but Pakistan on the other hand is a literal enemy with instability its motto.
If you take Rogozin's words literally in this so called messy hypocritical diplomacy, then you 're just stupid.
So yeah we are happy that they wont sell arms to Pakistan.
After all it has market power over us we cant dictate everything just like they cant dictate from whom we buy our stuff from.
China gets Su-35 but we won't see it attacking us any soon.
Its basic diplomacy, and I still don't see Russia directly selling offensive arms.
Il-78 from surplus stock is from Ukraine not Russia.



Things won't change suddenly and I know it wont in fact post 2014 it'll become even more difficult.
But that doesn't mean the approach will be the same either.
The approach will completely be different as the plans are too make ANA self sustaining and as we can see neighboring countries including China and Russia have shown concern.
We are already involved in military training and economy.
India literally has nothing to lose, unlike Pakistan.


Your link says

Presence is defined by "provinces that average one (or more) insurgent attacks (lethal and non-lethal) per week.

As I said situation is definitely bad but their presence doesn't mean they have complete control over a certain region, their control depends on how weak the ANA's and US forces' are there.
You don't think their control means they actually rule all the 72% of the regions with their own Talibani government, do you?

And mind the article says "presence" NOT "control" as you said.


Yes the training of ANA has been done since a long time but not like the one that will be done post 2014, eg. officers and the hierarchy were not trained to that extent before as it will be now.

After that, a new and different NATO mission will advise, train and assist the expected 350,000-strong Afghanistan force, Rasmussen said.

NATO accepts Obama timetable to end war in Afghanistan by 2014 - CNN.com

The mission will be different the threat perception would be different and the main concentration will be on self sustenance as told by Obama.

I see a parallel between the S.Korea and Afghanistan.

we will co-operate with them whilst trying to deny India influence .

This statement of yours is equally absurd as it is extremely difficult.
First things first Pakistan has not been able to stop the Indian influence except a few bombings here there through a 3rd party. Which means that we won't move until we have absolutely no hope.
Secondly, if we have nothing to get from there, we will be forced abandon Afghanistan, however that will be a case where it hurts Pakistan even more coz of its proximity.
Thirdly, Pakistan cooperation doesn't change anything in our approach, only thing that will, will hurt Pakistan as much and as far as I can gather India won't move until she is absolutely desperate and by the time that happens, as I said, it'll be in cauda venenum for Pakistan.

Your statement just states basic denial coz there's practically no way you can get the cake and eat it too.


Yes it is complicated but then again we won't need to continuously use the western frontier that will be only to strike the final nail in the coffin. And that too will not be necessary if india gains a foothold in Afghanistan.


Of course our influence trumped, it starts with the hospital and trade and it ends with foreign bases.
no no no no you got it a tad wrong, when we succeed, we won't be there to see it, only I'll be there to flaunt it, we won't see you there.
Well its better to have count the chickens rather than having none at all.

"I can post dozens of pictures of different SIGINT setups and their vastness , signifying and adding weight to the argument that to cover large distances , one has to make it big !"

You know what let me save you the trouble.

The AN/TRC-170. It is very much mobile and not as big as the radomes you think are necessary everywhere.
So, as I said,

And if you got flabbergasted by the wiki quote then let me remind you size doesn't matter as there are smaller installations of Dipole antennae and high-gain antennae.

I never said that big installations are absolutely necessary.


Alright I get ya, still if you are trying to prove that the Oman listening station is or is not able to cover long distances then your point will continue to remain moot, since your picture is incorrect in the first place, unless you can prove it other wise.
As I told you quoting from the report, 2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints .
As for the date of the picture, the average updation time of google maps are 3-4 years not 3 months and that too depends, i.e. if the picture is not perfect it is left as it is until next time.
https://sites.google.com/site/earthhowdoi/Home/ageandclarityofimagery
And NO google maps don't show the imagery date.
Well it should be your concern coz if the report wouldn't have been there neither would have been your rant.

"The report clearly mentions " Ra's Al Hadd listening station " giving its exact location in Oman which is what the picture mentions and shows , the area of " Al Had ""

Well I don't trust the accuracy of the map, but I can trust the accuracy of the report.
And nowhere is the phrase "Ra's Al Hadd listening station" anywhere on the report so you are wrong.
And again let me remind you it was the France-based, privately-operated, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications's 'Intelligence Online' publication and not any Indian paper that propagated the news.
I'll believe the report as it says "2 km from the sea" and the antennae you showed are NOT even 300m from the sea.
As per the report and your statement, nothing is in accordance.
If I am right which I probably am the landscape might have had some significant changes in the last 3 years or so.

As for encryption, No it is not impossible to crack, that is the very purpose of a cryptanalysis agencies, which you are completely over looking.
WE don't know what equipment JCB uses but I do know some of the most powerful encrpytion bits have been cracked including the 512 and 660bits.
If you have heard of XSL attacks then you can do research on the famous ones where cryptanalysis over brute force have cracked the so called uncrackable bits.
You can check out the RSA challenges too which have cracked far beyond 512.
World's toughest encryption scheme found 'vulnerable'
India has 8 supercomputers in the Top500 list ranking of last year, I don't think its that extremely hard either, however yes it does take time.

Mate I don't see the need to reexplain whatever you said, you do "fine job" there, I am just giving my opinion on the pipeline deal and if it irks you so be it.
I don't think Pakistan will deny it if Iran decides to bring in a "contributor".
If I am not wrong China gave the $500 million loan while the next 500 will be generated through taxes.
India's involvement means a certain load will come off, but even more so the US pressure will most probably decrease(threat of economic sanctions).
Again I was not denying anything you said, I just intended to say the above.

 

[Secur]

Well as they say patience is a virtue, coz you'll find it when the time does come until then lets just agree to disagree or as you said a "modus vivendi", coz frankly we ain't goin nowhere.

Oh really.......
You seem to have "missed" out a few things, or maybe "missed" is an understatement

I URGE you to read it again its more than the placement of troops.

Again read it, these things are not to be looked at thru militaristic point of view, an economic warfare happens slowly.

You can keep denying facts of what it is NOT possible now with Ayni and Farkhor but when the time does come u won't be surprised.



Please refrain from premature evaluation I meant under the radar not literally under Kremlin.
Russian-Central Asian Security Relations | Russian Military Reform

well it is getting all the "invest in various projects and signed a number of agreements" you wanted right?
It seems very difficult that Pakistan will ask for Russian negligence during a Indo-Pak war, thats what I wanted to say.
I didn't mean 2014 to be far ahead, I meant the time when Russia will sit back when India and Pak will, if ever face off.
That is as I said faaaaaar ahead in the future.
Trade does change a few things specially if India's trade with China trumps all other countries' trade with it, as predicted in BRICS.


As for RD-93MA there's the Mig29 or the Mig-35 which can use it and have you seen the list of countries that operate the Mig29 and can you guess how many countries are vying for upgradation?
Until then there's nothing on the card.
Pakistani economy is in dire straits to say the least and what is it to say that won't be even worse in the future.


Well China maybe a tough contender but it is stable so yeah it is our practical enemy but Pakistan on the other hand is a literal enemy with instability its motto.
If you take Rogozin's words literally in this so called messy hypocritical diplomacy, then you 're just stupid.
So yeah we are happy that they wont sell arms to Pakistan.
After all it has market power over us we cant dictate everything just like they cant dictate from whom we buy our stuff from.
China gets Su-35 but we won't see it attacking us any soon.
Its basic diplomacy, and I still don't see Russia directly selling offensive arms.
Il-78 from surplus stock is from Ukraine not Russia.



Things won't change suddenly and I know it wont in fact post 2014 it'll become even more difficult.
But that doesn't mean the approach will be the same either.
The approach will completely be different as the plans are too make ANA self sustaining and as we can see neighboring countries including China and Russia have shown concern.
We are already involved in military training and economy.
India literally has nothing to lose, unlike Pakistan.


Your link says

As I said situation is definitely bad but their presence doesn't mean they have complete control over a certain region, their control depends on how weak the ANA's and US forces' are there.
You don't think their control means they actually rule all the 72% of the regions with their own Talibani government, do you?

And mind the article says "presence" NOT "control" as you said.


Yes the training of ANA has been done since a long time but not like the one that will be done post 2014, eg. officers and the hierarchy were not trained to that extent before as it will be now.

NATO accepts Obama timetable to end war in Afghanistan by 2014 - CNN.com

The mission will be different the threat perception would be different and the main concentration will be on self sustenance as told by Obama.

I see a parallel between the S.Korea and Afghanistan.

This statement of yours is equally absurd as it is extremely difficult.
First things first Pakistan has not been able to stop the Indian influence except a few bombings here there through a 3rd party. Which means that we won't move until we have absolutely no hope.
Secondly, if we have nothing to get from there, we will be forced abandon Afghanistan, however that will be a case where it hurts Pakistan even more coz of its proximity.
Thirdly, Pakistan cooperation doesn't change anything in our approach, only thing that will, will hurt Pakistan as much and as far as I can gather India won't move until she is absolutely desperate and by the time that happens, as I said, it'll be in cauda venenum for Pakistan.

Your statement just states basic denial coz there's practically no way you can get the cake and eat it too.


Yes it is complicated but then again we won't need to continuously use the western frontier that will be only to strike the final nail in the coffin. And that too will not be necessary if india gains a foothold in Afghanistan.


Of course our influence trumped, it starts with the hospital and trade and it ends with foreign bases.
no no no no you got it a tad wrong, when we succeed, we won't be there to see it, only I'll be there to flaunt it, we won't see you there.
Well its better to have count the chickens rather than having none at all.




You know what let me save you the trouble.

The AN/TRC-170. It is very much mobile and not as big as the radomes you think are necessary everywhere.
So, as I said,


I never said that big installations are absolutely necessary.


Alright I get ya, still if you are trying to prove that the Oman listening station is or is not able to cover long distances then your point will continue to remain moot, since your picture is incorrect in the first place, unless you can prove it other wise.
As I told you quoting from the report, 2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints .
As for the date of the picture, the average updation time of google maps are 3-4 years not 3 months and that too depends, i.e. if the picture is not perfect it is left as it is until next time.
https://sites.google.com/site/earthhowdoi/Home/ageandclarityofimagery
And NO google maps don't show the imagery date.
Well it should be your concern coz if the report wouldn't have been there neither would have been your rant.



Well I don't trust the accuracy of the map, but I can trust the accuracy of the report.
And nowhere is the phrase "Ra's Al Hadd listening station" anywhere on the report so you are wrong.
And again let me remind you it was the France-based, privately-operated, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications's 'Intelligence Online' publication and not any Indian paper that propagated the news.
I'll believe the report as it says "2 km from the sea" and the antennae you showed are NOT even 300m from the sea.
As per the report and your statement, nothing is in accordance.
If I am right which I probably am the landscape might have had some significant changes in the last 3 years or so.

As for encryption, No it is not impossible to crack, that is the very purpose of a cryptanalysis agencies, which you are completely over looking.
WE don't know what equipment JCB uses but I do know some of the most powerful encrpytion bits have been cracked including the 512 and 660bits.
If you have heard of XSL attacks then you can do research on the famous ones where cryptanalysis over brute force have cracked the so called uncrackable bits.
You can check out the RSA challenges too which have cracked far beyond 512.
World's toughest encryption scheme found 'vulnerable'
India has 8 supercomputers in the Top500 list ranking of last year, I don't think its that extremely hard either, however yes it does take time.

Mate I don't see the need to reexplain whatever you said, you do "fine job" there, I am just giving my opinion on the pipeline deal and if it irks you so be it.
I don't think Pakistan will deny it if Iran decides to bring in a "contributor".
If I am not wrong China gave the $500 million loan while the next 500 will be generated through taxes.
India's involvement means a certain load will come off, but even more so the US pressure will most probably decrease(threat of economic sanctions).
Again I was not denying anything you said, I just intended to say the above.

The " modus vivendi " diplomacy was mentioned for Russia . I know about patience but what do they say about exaggeration , speculation and counting chickens before they hatch , mate ? I am not denying nothing , even you agree Farkhor is being run practically by the Russians and the status of Ayni is a military hospital and some personnel at the moment .

I read the whole and I found nothing of substance , nothing new or that we do not already know , there may be dozens of article like that warning how grave the Pakistani and Chinese threat is for India , what should I do with them , post them here and ask you to find anything significant ?

Well so far yes , the implementation is yet to be done however , but do you think it ends at it ? Russia will need Pakistan continuously for what it wants , similar how Americans banked on our assistance in Afghanistan for decades . Kremlin realizes the importance of Islamabad for peace and prosperity in the Central Asia - its backyard and hence you see all the high profile visits for the first time in the history . Pakistan can ask for neutrality in a conflict and that wont be difficult to achieve with all the recent developments . Well looking at the stand off happening currently at LAC , I very much doubt your claim of trade changing things that dramatically .

You clearly said " under the Kremlin " and that does mean influence , being under the radar is something very different , of course Middle East has remained like that for every energy hungry country because of obvious reason , what does it change ?

As for RD-93 MA , the most probable country it is being worked for is China itself since no one else will specially ask for a enhanced version of the engine . It will become apparent , Klimov will disclose it in due time . But " unspecified customer " meaning a single one does point in that direction .

Actually you posted his words , asking me to believe it . Now , I had practical examples of Russian sales to both China and Pakistan directly or indirectly - both countries hostile to India . So , I do not understand why you mentioned it at all , did you not know the military relations between Beijing and Moscow ? Maybe the RD 93 sale and the authorization of tank parts and IL-78 sale through third parties was new for you , but everyone knows about the cooperation between Russia and China . So they do sell weapons to your enemies , openly or secretly , it doesn't matter . I will tell you something , PAF operates F16 B52 so if in future they become surplus and their role is taken over by other aircraft , can we sale it without permission from US ? Same is true for Ukraine , mate .

But you are expecting them to change suddenly when they haven't in a decades time , this is what I meant by delusional approach to the whole scenario , the Afghanistan has always been volatile , they have been fighting within themselves for the last 200 years and you expect all to go right just because coalition leaves and aggressively trains the ANA ? They have done so for the last 5-6 years without any significant result . The performance of ANA is apparent to all , it is nothing more than a poor excuse for an army , you can check American General's own assessment about them listing the various problems with the newly raised army which haunts them . How exactly does training by multiple countries or training of high level officers change the fact that Afghan National Army has poor discipline , zero moral , low capability , heavy drug use , involved in crimes and lack of experience and training and that too that quickly ?

No , of course I do not mean they are running the Govt but still majority areas of Afghanistan are under their influence and this shows a very bleak picture of coalition's progress since '01 . Add to that , the negotiation with the same people they came here to fight and the situation on the ground will become very clear . NATO has revised its mission and objectives a few times in the war and frankly looking at the past record , it is not encouraging at all .

Actually , Pakistan has been able to , forget the bombing , the Afghan take almost 90% of their supplies from Pakistan transit route add to that the Pashtun card and you will understand why countries first approach Islamabad when they want to deal with Afghanistan , we have some influence which you aren't able to understand . There's a reason why Chicago summit and Bonn conference failed because we were not on board . You are merely happy because the so called Afghan Govt has allowed you to operate few consulates from where you can cause law and order disturbances in my country . Where is the Indian foothold apart from that ? Post 2014 , when that country is predicted to descend to civil war , I do not see how that will continue so yes you have been counting your chickens even without the eggs here . I said that if the Afghan Govt and ANA can survive the storm after 2014 , we can try to help them under certain conditions . Just like we do when they request us to help them negotiate with Taliban by releasing prisoners .

Seeing how our borders have never been breached after we became nuclear power , I would take " the final nail in the coffin and that too from Afghanistan " with a pinch of salt .

Tajikistan has offered its bases to various countries since it cant manage them , you have renovated them for free , provided them an hospital and think you can operate from there against Pakistan which isn't going to happen knowing Dushanbe's vulnerability reluctant to allow any other base and Russian's wary of India's further leasing of any base . I dont see any influence trumping , mere presence doesn't guarantee influence . Flying just too high too early , huh , you will be flaunting whilst I wont be there when it happens ? Whatever helps you at night , mate .

Well AN TRC/170 is not a SIGINT system , it is used for maintaining communications , if it was that easy to place a few of these like that in a country and hope to spy on some communications 400 km's away which happens to a long distance , then we would have seen a lot of countries do it in absolute secrecy without even notifying the country which it is placed , since its small size would have guaranteed its secret presence in embassies , factories etc , but actually no significant signals intelligence can be kept discreet because of its size . You must look at some of the systems in Russia and ECHELON five countries network and understand what I mean .

The U.S. Army and Air Force use tactical tropospheric scatter systems developed by Raytheon for long haul communications. The systems come in two configurations, the original "heavy tropo", and a newer "light tropo" configuration exist.


Well there was no ranting at all , just a refutation of the exaggeration you people have made about a single report by a organization to the extent that it has become some sort of " gospel truth " for you , since you mention you do not trust the imagery but the accuracy of the report As for the map data , it is old for 1-3 years just for high resolution images which they usually acquire for US , Canada and Europe . It wont be anything more than one year for these low resolution and easy to acquire images .

The areas of high resolution coverage are, on average, one to three years old.


Have a look at the report again , see the Ra's Al Had there mentioned in both the Indian report and the actual one from which it quoted , it is more probable that the report is either exaggerated or wrong , since there's nothing of importance on the eastern Omani coast - the mentioned location and the area hosts just 3 little towers . Actually , we have no reason to worry , since Oman is a neutal country from the start and anyone hoping for Muscat to become its ally would be fooling himself . Oman maintains excellent relations with Pakistan and India at the same time pointing towards balanced diplomacy .
Indian Listening Station In Oman Monitoring Pakistan's Naval Communications [RUMINT] - AA Me, IN

I never said " encryption " is impossible to crack , I said it is " nearly impossible to crack " unless you found vulnerabilities or someone divulges the key himself . By the time it is cracked , you have no idea of the time which would passed by then and the situation that would have been changing continuously . Check the time and computing power required for cracking 128 , 256 and 512 bit AES on the Internet even with super computers .

Faster supercomputer (as per Wikipedia): 10.51 Pentaflops = 10.51 x 1015 Flops [Flops = Floating point operations per second]
No. of Flops required per combination check: 1000 (very optimistic but just assume for now)
No. of combination checks per second = (10.51 x 1015) / 1000 = 10.51 x 1012
No. of seconds in one Year = 365 x 24 x 60 x 60 = 31536000
No. of Years to crack AES with 128-bit Key = (3.4 x 1038) / [(10.51 x 1012) x 31536000] = (0.323 x 1026)/31536000 = 1.02 x 1018 = 1 billion billion years

As shown above, even with a supercomputer, it would take 1 billion billion years to crack the 128-bit AES key using brute force attack. This is more than the age of the universe (13.75 billion years).
How secure is AES against brute force attacks?

So , cracking encryption and listening to military communication isn't a walk in the park as you assume , actually it is like I said near impossible barring certain exceptional circumstances .

Nothing has irked me thus far , mate , I mentioned the futility of arguing with me on things which I mentioned myself and agree on Of course , Pakistan will not deny since it will receive transit fees in return , its just good business , as they say .

 

[Secur]

@bloo

Here are some SIGINT stations for you .

Look at the size , the vastness and the scale and then compare it with rumored little 3 towers which are expected to do what-not . You think anything that big can be kept secret and discreet ?

 

[bloo]

The " modus vivendi " diplomacy was mentioned for Russia . I know about patience but what do they say about exaggeration , speculation and counting chickens before they hatch , mate ? I am not denying nothing , even you agree Farkhor is being run practically by the Russians and the status of Ayni is a military hospital and some personnel at the moment .

I read the whole and I found nothing of substance , nothing new or that we do not already know , there may be dozens of article like that warning how grave the Pakistani and Chinese threat is for India , what should I do with them , post them here and ask you to find anything significant ?

Well so far yes , the implementation is yet to be done however , but do you think it ends at it ? Russia will need Pakistan continuously for what it wants , similar how Americans banked on our assistance in Afghanistan for decades . Kremlin realizes the importance of Islamabad for peace and prosperity in the Central Asia - its backyard and hence you see all the high profile visits for the first time in the history . Pakistan can ask for neutrality in a conflict and that wont be difficult to achieve with all the recent developments . Well looking at the stand off happening currently at LAC , I very much doubt your claim of trade changing things that dramatically .

You clearly said " under the Kremlin " and that does mean influence , being under the radar is something very different , of course Middle East has remained like that for every energy hungry country because of obvious reason , what does it change ?

As for RD-93 MA , the most probable country it is being worked for is China itself since no one else will specially ask for a enhanced version of the engine . It will become apparent , Klimov will disclose it in due time . But " unspecified customer " meaning a single one does point in that direction .

Actually you posted his words , asking me to believe it . Now , I had practical examples of Russian sales to both China and Pakistan directly or indirectly - both countries hostile to India . So , I do not understand why you mentioned it at all , did you not know the military relations between Beijing and Moscow ? Maybe the RD 93 sale and the authorization of tank parts and IL-78 sale through third parties was new for you , but everyone knows about the cooperation between Russia and China . So they do sell weapons to your enemies , openly or secretly , it doesn't matter . I will tell you something , PAF operates F16 B52 so if in future they become surplus and their role is taken over by other aircraft , can we sale it without permission from US ? Same is true for Ukraine , mate .

But you are expecting them to change suddenly when they haven't in a decades time , this is what I meant by delusional approach to the whole scenario , the Afghanistan has always been volatile , they have been fighting within themselves for the last 200 years and you expect all to go right just because coalition leaves and aggressively trains the ANA ? They have done so for the last 5-6 years without any significant result . The performance of ANA is apparent to all , it is nothing more than a poor excuse for an army , you can check American General's own assessment about them listing the various problems with the newly raised army which haunts them . How exactly does training by multiple countries or training of high level officers change the fact that Afghan National Army has poor discipline , zero moral , low capability , heavy drug use , involved in crimes and lack of experience and training and that too that quickly ?

No , of course I do not mean they are running the Govt but still majority areas of Afghanistan are under their influence and this shows a very bleak picture of coalition's progress since '01 . Add to that , the negotiation with the same people they came here to fight and the situation on the ground will become very clear . NATO has revised its mission and objectives a few times in the war and frankly looking at the past record , it is not encouraging at all .

Actually , Pakistan has been able to , forget the bombing , the Afghan take almost 90% of their supplies from Pakistan transit route add to that the Pashtun card and you will understand why countries first approach Islamabad when they want to deal with Afghanistan , we have some influence which you aren't able to understand . There's a reason why Chicago summit and Bonn conference failed because we were not on board . You are merely happy because the so called Afghan Govt has allowed you to operate few consulates from where you can cause law and order disturbances in my country . Where is the Indian foothold apart from that ? Post 2014 , when that country is predicted to descend to civil war , I do not see how that will continue so yes you have been counting your chickens even without the eggs here . I said that if the Afghan Govt and ANA can survive the storm after 2014 , we can try to help them under certain conditions . Just like we do when they request us to help them negotiate with Taliban by releasing prisoners .

Seeing how our borders have never been breached after we became nuclear power , I would take " the final nail in the coffin and that too from Afghanistan " with a pinch of salt .

Tajikistan has offered its bases to various countries since it cant manage them , you have renovated them for free , provided them an hospital and think you can operate from there against Pakistan which isn't going to happen knowing Dushanbe's vulnerability reluctant to allow any other base and Russian's wary of India's further leasing of any base . I dont see any influence trumping , mere presence doesn't guarantee influence . Flying just too high too early , huh , you will be flaunting whilst I wont be there when it happens ? Whatever helps you at night , mate .

Well AN TRC/170 is not a SIGINT system , it is used for maintaining communications , if it was that easy to place a few of these like that in a country and hope to spy on some communications 400 km's away which happens to a long distance , then we would have seen a lot of countries do it in absolute secrecy without even notifying the country which it is placed , since its small size would have guaranteed its secret presence in embassies , factories etc , but actually no significant signals intelligence can be kept discreet because of its size . You must look at some of the systems in Russia and ECHELON five countries network and understand what I mean .

The U.S. Army and Air Force use tactical tropospheric scatter systems developed by Raytheon for long haul communications. The systems come in two configurations, the original "heavy tropo", and a newer "light tropo" configuration exist.


Well there was no ranting at all , just a refutation of the exaggeration you people have made about a single report by a organization to the extent that it has become some sort of " gospel truth " for you , since you mention you do not trust the imagery but the accuracy of the report As for the map data , it is old for 1-3 years just for high resolution images which they usually acquire for US , Canada and Europe . It wont be anything more than one year for these low resolution and easy to acquire images .

The areas of high resolution coverage are, on average, one to three years old.


Have a look at the report again , see the Ra's Al Had there mentioned in both the Indian report and the actual one from which it quoted , it is more probable that the report is either exaggerated or wrong , since there's nothing of importance on the eastern Omani coast - the mentioned location and the area hosts just 3 little towers . Actually , we have no reason to worry , since Oman is a neutal country from the start and anyone hoping for Muscat to become its ally would be fooling himself . Oman maintains excellent relations with Pakistan and India at the same time pointing towards balanced diplomacy .
Indian Listening Station In Oman Monitoring Pakistan's Naval Communications [RUMINT] - AA Me, IN

I never said " encryption " is impossible to crack , I said it is " nearly impossible to crack " unless you found vulnerabilities or someone divulges the key himself . By the time it is cracked , you have no idea of the time which would passed by then and the situation that would have been changing continuously . Check the time and computing power required for cracking 128 , 256 and 512 bit AES on the Internet even with super computers .

Faster supercomputer (as per Wikipedia): 10.51 Pentaflops = 10.51 x 1015 Flops [Flops = Floating point operations per second]
No. of Flops required per combination check: 1000 (very optimistic but just assume for now)
No. of combination checks per second = (10.51 x 1015) / 1000 = 10.51 x 1012
No. of seconds in one Year = 365 x 24 x 60 x 60 = 31536000
No. of Years to crack AES with 128-bit Key = (3.4 x 1038) / [(10.51 x 1012) x 31536000] = (0.323 x 1026)/31536000 = 1.02 x 1018 = 1 billion billion years

As shown above, even with a supercomputer, it would take 1 billion billion years to crack the 128-bit AES key using brute force attack. This is more than the age of the universe (13.75 billion years).
How secure is AES against brute force attacks?

So , cracking encryption and listening to military communication isn't a walk in the park as you assume , actually it is like I said near impossible barring certain exceptional circumstances .

Nothing has irked me thus far , mate , I mentioned the futility of arguing with me on things which I mentioned myself and agree on Of course , Pakistan will not deny since it will receive transit fees in return , its just good business , as they say .

Its fine with me, coz I know am doing the things you mentioned, but I also know you too are doing all the things you mention.
Regardless, chickens or no chickens it will be a fact when it comes true(if).
I was using it as a figure of speech modus vivendi as it literally means agreeing to disagree.
I wouldn't say practically, 50-50 in my opinion.
As for Ayni yup you are right, but something is better than having nothing, and as I said we have nothing to lose.


Why will you do that?
We are discussing Pakistan's encirclement, this whole thread is about that very thing.
So why will you change the subject?
When you are debating, you play with what you've got you don't go someplace else just coz the game's too tough for you.
As for "nothing of substance", do tell me what it is and mind it is a Pakistani article that says so not an Indian?
And as for China's encirclement of India, yes it is true, I am not a hypocrite I won't deny it.
China's geo-strategic position and influence is definitely better than India.


Sure a destabilized Afghanistan will surely irk Russia, but again no matter what it wants from Pakistan its not worth losing in India, that at the least I know you can't deny.
As for "peace and prosperity in the Central Asia", not to bring up the elephant in the room but we all know who is responsible for that.
And as for "Pakistan can ask for neutrality in a conflict and that wont be difficult to achieve with all the recent developments ",
People are jerking off just coz of 1 visit in like forever, that is mere wishful thinking, if Pakistan ever goes into a war with India it automatically means there is nothing it can do to serve the purpose of others thus conflicting with Russia's plans. So in the end will Russia want its influence over a broken and bruised Central Asia or a 2nd fastest growing BRIC nation.
As for Indo-China trade,
India-China bilateral trade projected at $100 bn by 2015 | Business Standard
India set to be fastest growing trading nation: HSBC | India China Economic and Cultural Council
I'd say your doubt is not good enough.



Yes I said " under the Kremlin " sue me already.
As for

what does it change ?

Do you remember when I said that Russia too is worried about a post 2014 CIS?
That's right Russia's sudden interest stems to the fact that it is trying to project its influence as the Americans return and the Talibanis become more mischievous.
Thus an olive branch to them including Pak and not just for the energy.



Yes the most probable country is China.
" unspecified customer " can mean any of the 22 countries that decides to upgrade their migs just like India is doing to the UPG and the SMT.


We cant do anything about the sale to China, Russia has some market power over India we can't simply deny everything.
As I said you are taking his words literally.
Take the tone of his statement, which should be obvious to all of us that selling offensive weapons directly to Pak is a long long way into the future or maybe not even there at all.
In Pakistan's case we all know about Pak's ability to buy something.Its not much.
So you buy a few tank or aircraft engines or 6 transport aircrafts from Russia, so???
As long as they are not giving you offensive weapons directly we are happy.
Going to Ukraine becomes 3rd to 4th party and as I said India doesn't have that much power.
As for surplus sale of F-16s, come on dude give an analogy that is actually ever going to be possible.

you expect all to go right just because coalition leaves and aggressively trains the ANA ?

Yes I do, and as I said its a new set of plans, new infrastructure, new everything.
Pal repeating the same argument over and over again won't change the fact that India's interest in Afghanistan hasn't been hampered and nor will it bring your supposed future quickly.
There's much to gain and as I said Russia and China have also taken an interest.
We are yet to fail and you are yet to succeed.


Bonn conference......failed?
If I'm not mistaken Hamid Karzai is still the Afghan Interim Authority and he is still pro Indian, so what did Pakistan do anyway?
And we all know about ISI's double standards so why will Pakistan cooperate?
As for trade, what influence?
Was Pakistan able to stop the Astara port or the Chahbahar port?
Was it able to stop the possible $3trillion mining contract?
Was it able to stop the 150 or so officers from coming to India to train?


True an alternate route is a more expensive way but we can afford it, unlike Pakistan whose ego is so big that it wont allow trade even though the trade can do good for it, on top of the dwindling economy and the tag of a failed state.

OOOh so you want to say that if Afghanistan ever descends into civil war then Pakistan will make the boo-boo go away with a swish of magic Pakistani stick.
As for negotiating with Talibans you don't help the Afghans you just make the matters worse for the long run.
As far as I can tell Pakistan doesn't have a good history with the talibans either.
Or don't you remember it all went back up to bite Pak in the a$$?
We all know how this is going to end, if the Talibans have their way they'll end up with the whole of Afghanistan and their innovative version of the Shariah law which will end up with an eventual incursion into Pak.
You are betting on the future expecting Afghanistan to fail and you accuse me of counting my chickens ROFLMAO?
Buddy as I said, unlike you we at the least have eggs, so a few if not all chickens will definitely hatch.
I believe a situation will arise that is at the twilight region of both and mine and your thoughts, but as far as I can tell everything Indo-Afghan is going great right now and Pak has done cinch to stop that.



Oh no please add pepper to that too.
2 dozen DEVGRU Navy SEALs infiltrating Pakistani soil and cracking your so called sovereignty like a coconut, doing their stuff and getting back safely is definitely not a breach, right?
As for nukes even that advantage will possibly go down the drain.
US Military Preparing To Steal Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

Whatever you say pal, its only 100 military personnel now, a C-130 flying over, a supposed to be closed airbase in 2007 which is still operational now and a jointly controlled airbase, hanging over your head nothing to worry about it seems.
I know I would be worried.
Help me sleep at night????
You're the one who should worry about Tajikistan.
For us we have nothing to lose, if we get it great if we don't its coz Afghanistan has failed to such a degree that we can no more get a strategic foothold but it escalates into Pak and it still does damage to Pak.So enjoy your denial and as you say it.
Whatever helps you at night , mate .



As for

it is old for 1-3 years just for high resolution images which they usually acquire for US , Canada and Europe . It wont be anything more than one year for these low resolution and easy to acquire images .

You've got any proof of that? I showed you a legit google statement you show me one too?
What makes you think that the pictures all around the world are not unbiased?
It just your denial pal.
You can keep on guessing but as I said your picture itself is wrong no matter ho much you guess.

As for

just a refutation of the exaggeration you people have made about a single report by a organization to the extent that it has become some sort of " gospel truth " for you

Why not? Since you don't believe Indian media, after all they portray false crap, so for once we are looking elsewhere for "LEGIT" news.
Or do you want to say that, "I don't believe anything that is against Pakistan be it Indian or anyone else".



Dude you are embarrassing your self give it up already.
The claim, "2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints" crumbles your entire argument, you are not even contradicting my posts anymore, you are just denying it with no proof what so ever.
The only thing left for you to say is that you don't believe the report coz you don't like it.
This is the original report of the France-based, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications's 'Intelligence Online'.

The FACT is that there IS a listening station and who knows what is going on in there and that is what pricks you.



You are correct AES is yet to be cracked or yet to be publicized that it was cracked.
Your article mentions brute force tactics which is among many that can be used to crack an AES encryption.
A cryptographer's adage is.
"Attacks always get better, they never get worse."
And it has never proven to be untrue.

There are ways to crack AES without brute force, and if you wouldn't have breezed past my link you would have known that,

AES crypto broken by 'groundbreaking' attack ? The Register

AES proved vulnerable by Microsoft researchers - Computerworld

Black-bag, Replay attack, Timing attack, Acoustic cryptanalysis, Rubber-hose, Differential fault analysis, Data remanence, Power monitoring attack, MITM et cetra are some of the few symmetric ciphers.

Only recently did a symmetric cipher form of the "meet-in-the-middle" known as the Biclique was used to show various deficiencies in the AES.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/cryptanalysis/aesbc.pdf


It is not possible to use AES every single time how many a P25 radio schemes or similar schemes does Pak use? What about COMINT, Voice interception, SCI you must know that cryptanalysis is still possible there.



And when did I say it was a walk in the park?

Arguing?
Please dude I am showing you a different perspective, of the pipeline deal.
Again no one disagreed with you.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

As for size,

The CR-2800 ELISRA has a range of 330km.
Theses are a few systems among many that are capable SIGINT.


www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/37544.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/36826.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/38025.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/27578.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/36825.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/38026.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/1/39871.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/36828.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/2/36052.pdf

So again, size does not always matter. Menwith hill, onyx, echelon et cetra are huge as they have a multitude of task to perform besides SIGINT, which is probably the reason why they look emasculating to you.

"little 3 towers" as I PROVED are not even the Indian listening post.

 

[Secur]

Its fine with me, coz I know am doing the things you mentioned, but I also know you too are doing all the things you mention.
Regardless, chickens or no chickens it will be a fact when it comes true(if).
I was using it as a figure of speech modus vivendi as it literally means agreeing to disagree.
I wouldn't say practically, 50-50 in my opinion.
As for Ayni yup you are right, but something is better than having nothing, and as I said we have nothing to lose.


Why will you do that?
We are discussing Pakistan's encirclement, this whole thread is about that very thing.
So why will you change the subject?
When you are debating, you play with what you've got you don't go someplace else just coz the game's too tough for you.
As for "nothing of substance", do tell me what it is and mind it is a Pakistani article that says so not an Indian?
And as for China's encirclement of India, yes it is true, I am not a hypocrite I won't deny it.
China's geo-strategic position and influence is definitely better than India.


Sure a destabilized Afghanistan will surely irk Russia, but again no matter what it wants from Pakistan its not worth losing in India, that at the least I know you can't deny.
As for "peace and prosperity in the Central Asia", not to bring up the elephant in the room but we all know who is responsible for that.
And as for "Pakistan can ask for neutrality in a conflict and that wont be difficult to achieve with all the recent developments ",
People are jerking off just coz of 1 visit in like forever, that is mere wishful thinking, if Pakistan ever goes into a war with India it automatically means there is nothing it can do to serve the purpose of others thus conflicting with Russia's plans. So in the end will Russia want its influence over a broken and bruised Central Asia or a 2nd fastest growing BRIC nation.
As for Indo-China trade,
India-China bilateral trade projected at $100 bn by 2015 | Business Standard
India set to be fastest growing trading nation: HSBC | India China Economic and Cultural Council
I'd say your doubt is not good enough.



Yes I said " under the Kremlin " sue me already.
As for

Do you remember when I said that Russia too is worried about a post 2014 CIS?
That's right Russia's sudden interest stems to the fact that it is trying to project its influence as the Americans return and the Talibanis become more mischievous.
Thus an olive branch to them including Pak and not just for the energy.



Yes the most probable country is China.
" unspecified customer " can mean any of the 22 countries that decides to upgrade their migs just like India is doing to the UPG and the SMT.


We cant do anything about the sale to China, Russia has some market power over India we can't simply deny everything.
As I said you are taking his words literally.
Take the tone of his statement, which should be obvious to all of us that selling offensive weapons directly to Pak is a long long way into the future or maybe not even there at all.
In Pakistan's case we all know about Pak's ability to buy something.Its not much.
So you buy a few tank or aircraft engines or 6 transport aircrafts from Russia, so???
As long as they are not giving you offensive weapons directly we are happy.
Going to Ukraine becomes 3rd to 4th party and as I said India doesn't have that much power.
As for surplus sale of F-16s, come on dude give an analogy that is actually ever going to be possible.




Yes I do, and as I said its a new set of plans, new infrastructure, new everything.
Pal repeating the same argument over and over again won't change the fact that India's interest in Afghanistan hasn't been hampered and nor will it bring your supposed future quickly.
There's much to gain and as I said Russia and China have also taken an interest.
We are yet to fail and you are yet to succeed.


Bonn conference......failed?
If I'm not mistaken Hamid Karzai is still the Afghan Interim Authority and he is still pro Indian, so what did Pakistan do anyway?
And we all know about ISI's double standards so why will Pakistan cooperate?
As for trade, what influence?
Was Pakistan able to stop the Astara port or the Chahbahar port?
Was it able to stop the possible $3trillion mining contract?
Was it able to stop the 150 or so officers from coming to India to train?


True an alternate route is a more expensive way but we can afford it, unlike Pakistan whose ego is so big that it wont allow trade even though the trade can do good for it, on top of the dwindling economy and the tag of a failed state.

OOOh so you want to say that if Afghanistan ever descends into civil war then Pakistan will make the boo-boo go away with a swish of magic Pakistani stick.
As for negotiating with Talibans you don't help the Afghans you just make the matters worse for the long run.
As far as I can tell Pakistan doesn't have a good history with the talibans either.
Or don't you remember it all went back up to bite Pak in the a$$?
We all know how this is going to end, if the Talibans have their way they'll end up with the whole of Afghanistan and their innovative version of the Shariah law which will end up with an eventual incursion into Pak.
You are betting on the future expecting Afghanistan to fail and you accuse me of counting my chickens ROFLMAO?
Buddy as I said, unlike you we at the least have eggs, so a few if not all chickens will definitely hatch.
I believe a situation will arise that is at the twilight region of both and mine and your thoughts, but as far as I can tell everything Indo-Afghan is going great right now and Pak has done cinch to stop that.



Oh no please add pepper to that too.
2 dozen DEVGRU Navy SEALs infiltrating Pakistani soil and cracking your so called sovereignty like a coconut, doing their stuff and getting back safely is definitely not a breach, right?
As for nukes even that advantage will possibly go down the drain.
US Military Preparing To Steal Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

Whatever you say pal, its only 100 military personnel now, a C-130 flying over, a supposed to be closed airbase in 2007 which is still operational now and a jointly controlled airbase, hanging over your head nothing to worry about it seems.
I know I would be worried.
Help me sleep at night????
You're the one who should worry about Tajikistan.
For us we have nothing to lose, if we get it great if we don't its coz Afghanistan has failed to such a degree that we can no more get a strategic foothold but it escalates into Pak and it still does damage to Pak.So enjoy your denial and as you say it.
Whatever helps you at night , mate .



As for

You've got any proof of that? I showed you a legit google statement you show me one too?
What makes you think that the pictures all around the world are not unbiased?
It just your denial pal.
You can keep on guessing but as I said your picture itself is wrong no matter ho much you guess.

As for

Why not? Since you don't believe Indian media, after all they portray false crap, so for once we are looking elsewhere for "LEGIT" news.
Or do you want to say that, "I don't believe anything that is against Pakistan be it Indian or anyone else".



Dude you are embarrassing your self give it up already.
The claim, "2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints" crumbles your entire argument, you are not even contradicting my posts anymore, you are just denying it with no proof what so ever.
The only thing left for you to say is that you don't believe the report coz you don't like it.
This is the original report of the France-based, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications's 'Intelligence Online'.

The FACT is that there IS a listening station and who knows what is going on in there and that is what pricks you.



You are correct AES is yet to be cracked or yet to be publicized that it was cracked.
Your article mentions brute force tactics which is among many that can be used to crack an AES encryption.
A cryptographer's adage is.
"Attacks always get better, they never get worse."
And it has never proven to be untrue.

There are ways to crack AES without brute force, and if you wouldn't have breezed past my link you would have known that,

AES crypto broken by 'groundbreaking' attack ? The Register

AES proved vulnerable by Microsoft researchers - Computerworld

Black-bag, Replay attack, Timing attack, Acoustic cryptanalysis, Rubber-hose, Differential fault analysis, Data remanence, Power monitoring attack, MITM et cetra are some of the few symmetric ciphers.

Only recently did a symmetric cipher form of the "meet-in-the-middle" known as the Biclique was used to show various deficiencies in the AES.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/cryptanalysis/aesbc.pdf


It is not possible to use AES every single time how many a P25 radio schemes or similar schemes does Pak use? What about COMINT, Voice interception, SCI you must know that cryptanalysis is still possible there.



And when did I say it was a walk in the park?

Arguing?
Please dude I am showing you a different perspective, of the pipeline deal.
Again no one disagreed with you.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

As for size,

The CR-2800 ELISRA has a range of 330km.
Theses are a few systems among many that are capable SIGINT.


www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/37544.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/36826.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/38025.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/27578.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/36825.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/38026.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/1/39871.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/36828.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/2/36052.pdf

So again, size does not always matter. Menwith hill, onyx, echelon et cetra are huge as they have a multitude of task to perform besides SIGINT, which is probably the reason why they look emasculating to you.

"little 3 towers" as I PROVED are not even the Indian listening post.

The "if" condition is another proof that you are banking on a lot of countries and future , mate , nothing else . Well , its them running whilst you are paying for the base , ever heard of this sort of lease of a foreign base ? I do not remember except some old examples from WW .

I was saying that if you want to debate with news articles which you are posting just because they suit you , other can bring a lot of stuff like that from your side and believe me , it will worse . So why do not we concentrate on arguments rather than whole stories from independence and measures and counter measures by both countries like in the ones you posted ? It matters not if it is a Pakistani article , it mentions nothing new or not already known , it mentions " India is trying to gain influence in the CIS " whilst mentioning things we know that haven't been successful thus far . This is what I mean by " nothing to substance " . If you post something specific from a credible source , I will be happy to share my views . Admitting something isn't hypocrisy , but why make " bogeyman " when none exist ?

Well , a destabilized Afghanistan which happens to be most probable scenario will irk and affect every single of its neighbors including Pakistan . I haven't said anything about losing anything in India , I believe I said on this thread that the relations will not be at the cost of India , just like India-China relations do not come at the cost of Islamabad . Yeah , we know that already , dirty geopolitics and interests of different countries . The same thing which is happening now , the Americans aren't there for the love of Afghans and neither are you , right ? So to put the blame on a single country is most unwise . Actually people , some of them , are seeing the big picture here , first visit in the history , surely he wasn't wasting his time , he came with an agenda which suggest changing situations in the regions . As I said , trade changes nothing between two hostiles , at times it helps in maintaining better relations , but as I am seeing in the face off in Ladakh region at the moment not to mention continuous incursions along the LAC by both parties - PLA may have a higher number here , so things haven't gone that way .

The whole Middle East remains in the radar of big energy hungry countries - even yourself , I asked you what is the big deal about the Kremlin's desire to warm up its ties with GCC members ? Russians cant get over with an " olive branch " , if they want peace and stability in the Central Asia , they will need us for decades to come like the Americans and just like other International relations , it will run of quid pro quos , Pakistan will ask for favors for what it provides , it is as simple as that . There's a reason why I didn't rule future Russian weapons sale to Islamabad .

Since they haven't disclosed the name of the "unspecified customer" , we have to rely on probability and they seem to be the only one with reasons to get that engine . I didn't say anything about stopping arms sale to China , it simple isn't possible since they pay and sign deals worth double or triple of what you do , look at the merchandise purchased from Soviets before . There's no comparison at all here . You need Russia more than it needs you so you cant dictate terms . Directly or indirectly to Pakistan , how does it matter ? You posted that statement and it said " something not selling any weapon " at all , I am not taking it literally , there's no other way to understand it . Both the IL-78 and tank parts sale were authorized by the Kremlin , that is the reason Kiev agreed to the deal in the first place . If you do not understand the meaning of the word " analogy " that isn't my problem .

You are free to live in delusion , what couldn't be done in 200 years and specially the last ten cant be suddenly changed back to normal just because coalition departs , which ironically would more worsen matters than improving it . Ground realities is what you should focus on and it remains grim as always . The Americans can propose and implement thousands plans and objectives but their progress during the last decade shows that it is mere "damage control" and " face saving exit" from a war now which they can neither fight to victory declaring Taliban to be not their enemies nor have the will left . Afghanistan hasn't hampered because there's nothing more left to be hampered , understand it that way .

Yes , it failed , research a little about it or just check the ending remarks where members expressed disappointment about not having Pakistan on board . If I am not mistaken , Hamid Karzai doesn't have any real power outside Kabul , that is why I called him an American installed puppet and sorry excuse of a Govt . Every country has double standards in the game of interests , call whatever you want to ISI wont change nothing . I never denied you have been allowed some presence for now but seeing how Mr Karzai is desperately negotiating for peace with Taliban as withdrawals draws nearer , I wouldn't be happy . A possible mining contract and training of some personnel is what you have to show in your progress card ? Actually the same Chahbahar port provides electricity to Gwadar and seeing how Iranians are more interested in co-operating by offering investments in Gwadar including building refinery rather than seeing us rivals or competing , there's nothing to worry about seeing how Tehran hasn't ever allowed anti-Pakistan activity from its soil .

I will ignore the tantrum about " failed state " here , not interested in taking flame baits . As for Afghanistan descending into civil war , I said it wont be harmful for the region including my country itself but seeing the number of players who are expected to fight with their own supported militias like before , Pakistan will not be able to do anything in that situation . Who are you to say anything if it is the Americans and Afghan Govt interested in negotiating with Taliban , not us ? I am not betting on future , I am just mentioning the most probable scenario which the analysts agree on .

I was expecting this OBL raid rhetoric to come in , possibly you do not have a habit of understanding statements in the right context or properly , how many times have someone fought a war inside our borders since we became nuclear power , now go and read again the thing about the " borders not being breached " and hence any future possibility being very little . Nothing is hanging over our head , because Dushanbe knows its vulnerabilities and is just too little to involve itself in a fight of big countries so again I doubt any attack taking place from there ever . So , what help is a base which cant be allowed to used in in case of hostilities because the country hosting it understands its delicate situation ?

I showed you a picture of the exact same location mentioned in the article , now it can be 1-3 year old even though more chances are that it is recent , but since you believe more a report than a satellite image , I have nothing more to say except that it is merely exaggeration . You can search up the whole eastern Omani coast minus the Ra's Al Had and tell me if you find something of interest . I told you that original report mentions the same area when you were denying it , read it again and see what it says . Relearn the meaning of the word " FACT " instead of attaching it with every report that suits you . The google statement says the time to acquire high resolution is 1-3 years so common sense dictates that the time would be much less for extremely low resolution images ( comparatively ) like these .

Even using the finest of the supercomputers , it is just impossible to crack AES . Except I accept by taking advantage of rarely found vulnerabilities , I know there are other methods but has it been cracked yet ? Any exploits are quickly taken care of by the experts and the algorithms are refined . For here " the offense is not developing faster than defense " . Sensitive military communications are usually encrypted to the highest levels of security and you know that , why would Pakistan be any exception ?

Now that is a fine example , proving that required range is indeed achievable , but still I see nothing like that in the picture of the area , mate , hence no reason to believe that it is there . Remaining Oman being a neutral country in its history will not allow anything that may develop animosity towards Muscat in either country . As they call them " The Swiss of the Middle East " .

No worries at all , drop the pipeline issue since you agree with me on " its just good business "

 

[Secur]

Its fine with me, coz I know am doing the things you mentioned, but I also know you too are doing all the things you mention.
Regardless, chickens or no chickens it will be a fact when it comes true(if).
I was using it as a figure of speech modus vivendi as it literally means agreeing to disagree.
I wouldn't say practically, 50-50 in my opinion.
As for Ayni yup you are right, but something is better than having nothing, and as I said we have nothing to lose.


Why will you do that?
We are discussing Pakistan's encirclement, this whole thread is about that very thing.
So why will you change the subject?
When you are debating, you play with what you've got you don't go someplace else just coz the game's too tough for you.
As for "nothing of substance", do tell me what it is and mind it is a Pakistani article that says so not an Indian?
And as for China's encirclement of India, yes it is true, I am not a hypocrite I won't deny it.
China's geo-strategic position and influence is definitely better than India.


Sure a destabilized Afghanistan will surely irk Russia, but again no matter what it wants from Pakistan its not worth losing in India, that at the least I know you can't deny.
As for "peace and prosperity in the Central Asia", not to bring up the elephant in the room but we all know who is responsible for that.
And as for "Pakistan can ask for neutrality in a conflict and that wont be difficult to achieve with all the recent developments ",
People are jerking off just coz of 1 visit in like forever, that is mere wishful thinking, if Pakistan ever goes into a war with India it automatically means there is nothing it can do to serve the purpose of others thus conflicting with Russia's plans. So in the end will Russia want its influence over a broken and bruised Central Asia or a 2nd fastest growing BRIC nation.
As for Indo-China trade,
India-China bilateral trade projected at $100 bn by 2015 | Business Standard
India set to be fastest growing trading nation: HSBC | India China Economic and Cultural Council
I'd say your doubt is not good enough.



Yes I said " under the Kremlin " sue me already.
As for

Do you remember when I said that Russia too is worried about a post 2014 CIS?
That's right Russia's sudden interest stems to the fact that it is trying to project its influence as the Americans return and the Talibanis become more mischievous.
Thus an olive branch to them including Pak and not just for the energy.



Yes the most probable country is China.
" unspecified customer " can mean any of the 22 countries that decides to upgrade their migs just like India is doing to the UPG and the SMT.


We cant do anything about the sale to China, Russia has some market power over India we can't simply deny everything.
As I said you are taking his words literally.
Take the tone of his statement, which should be obvious to all of us that selling offensive weapons directly to Pak is a long long way into the future or maybe not even there at all.
In Pakistan's case we all know about Pak's ability to buy something.Its not much.
So you buy a few tank or aircraft engines or 6 transport aircrafts from Russia, so???
As long as they are not giving you offensive weapons directly we are happy.
Going to Ukraine becomes 3rd to 4th party and as I said India doesn't have that much power.
As for surplus sale of F-16s, come on dude give an analogy that is actually ever going to be possible.




Yes I do, and as I said its a new set of plans, new infrastructure, new everything.
Pal repeating the same argument over and over again won't change the fact that India's interest in Afghanistan hasn't been hampered and nor will it bring your supposed future quickly.
There's much to gain and as I said Russia and China have also taken an interest.
We are yet to fail and you are yet to succeed.


Bonn conference......failed?
If I'm not mistaken Hamid Karzai is still the Afghan Interim Authority and he is still pro Indian, so what did Pakistan do anyway?
And we all know about ISI's double standards so why will Pakistan cooperate?
As for trade, what influence?
Was Pakistan able to stop the Astara port or the Chahbahar port?
Was it able to stop the possible $3trillion mining contract?
Was it able to stop the 150 or so officers from coming to India to train?


True an alternate route is a more expensive way but we can afford it, unlike Pakistan whose ego is so big that it wont allow trade even though the trade can do good for it, on top of the dwindling economy and the tag of a failed state.

OOOh so you want to say that if Afghanistan ever descends into civil war then Pakistan will make the boo-boo go away with a swish of magic Pakistani stick.
As for negotiating with Talibans you don't help the Afghans you just make the matters worse for the long run.
As far as I can tell Pakistan doesn't have a good history with the talibans either.
Or don't you remember it all went back up to bite Pak in the a$$?
We all know how this is going to end, if the Talibans have their way they'll end up with the whole of Afghanistan and their innovative version of the Shariah law which will end up with an eventual incursion into Pak.
You are betting on the future expecting Afghanistan to fail and you accuse me of counting my chickens ROFLMAO?
Buddy as I said, unlike you we at the least have eggs, so a few if not all chickens will definitely hatch.
I believe a situation will arise that is at the twilight region of both and mine and your thoughts, but as far as I can tell everything Indo-Afghan is going great right now and Pak has done cinch to stop that.



Oh no please add pepper to that too.
2 dozen DEVGRU Navy SEALs infiltrating Pakistani soil and cracking your so called sovereignty like a coconut, doing their stuff and getting back safely is definitely not a breach, right?
As for nukes even that advantage will possibly go down the drain.
US Military Preparing To Steal Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons

Whatever you say pal, its only 100 military personnel now, a C-130 flying over, a supposed to be closed airbase in 2007 which is still operational now and a jointly controlled airbase, hanging over your head nothing to worry about it seems.
I know I would be worried.
Help me sleep at night????
You're the one who should worry about Tajikistan.
For us we have nothing to lose, if we get it great if we don't its coz Afghanistan has failed to such a degree that we can no more get a strategic foothold but it escalates into Pak and it still does damage to Pak.So enjoy your denial and as you say it.
Whatever helps you at night , mate .



As for

You've got any proof of that? I showed you a legit google statement you show me one too?
What makes you think that the pictures all around the world are not unbiased?
It just your denial pal.
You can keep on guessing but as I said your picture itself is wrong no matter ho much you guess.

As for

Why not? Since you don't believe Indian media, after all they portray false crap, so for once we are looking elsewhere for "LEGIT" news.
Or do you want to say that, "I don't believe anything that is against Pakistan be it Indian or anyone else".



Dude you are embarrassing your self give it up already.
The claim, "2 km from the sea, the site which is protected by police checkpoints" crumbles your entire argument, you are not even contradicting my posts anymore, you are just denying it with no proof what so ever.
The only thing left for you to say is that you don't believe the report coz you don't like it.
This is the original report of the France-based, global intelligence gathering organisation, Indigo Publications's 'Intelligence Online'.

The FACT is that there IS a listening station and who knows what is going on in there and that is what pricks you.



You are correct AES is yet to be cracked or yet to be publicized that it was cracked.
Your article mentions brute force tactics which is among many that can be used to crack an AES encryption.
A cryptographer's adage is.
"Attacks always get better, they never get worse."
And it has never proven to be untrue.

There are ways to crack AES without brute force, and if you wouldn't have breezed past my link you would have known that,

AES crypto broken by 'groundbreaking' attack ? The Register

AES proved vulnerable by Microsoft researchers - Computerworld

Black-bag, Replay attack, Timing attack, Acoustic cryptanalysis, Rubber-hose, Differential fault analysis, Data remanence, Power monitoring attack, MITM et cetra are some of the few symmetric ciphers.

Only recently did a symmetric cipher form of the "meet-in-the-middle" known as the Biclique was used to show various deficiencies in the AES.
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/cryptanalysis/aesbc.pdf


It is not possible to use AES every single time how many a P25 radio schemes or similar schemes does Pak use? What about COMINT, Voice interception, SCI you must know that cryptanalysis is still possible there.



And when did I say it was a walk in the park?

Arguing?
Please dude I am showing you a different perspective, of the pipeline deal.
Again no one disagreed with you.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

As for size,

The CR-2800 ELISRA has a range of 330km.
Theses are a few systems among many that are capable SIGINT.


www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/37544.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/36826.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/4/38024.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/38025.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/27578.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/5/36825.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/6/38026.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/1/39871.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/8/36828.pdf
www.iai.co.il/sip_storage/FILES/2/36052.pdf

So again, size does not always matter. Menwith hill, onyx, echelon et cetra are huge as they have a multitude of task to perform besides SIGINT, which is probably the reason why they look emasculating to you.

"little 3 towers" as I PROVED are not even the Indian listening post.

The "if" condition is another proof that you are banking on a lot of countries and future , mate , nothing else . Well , its them running whilst you are paying for the base , ever heard of this sort of lease of a foreign base ? I do not remember except some old examples from WW .

I was saying that if you want to debate with news articles which you are posting just because they suit you , others can bring a lot of stuff like that from your side and believe me , it will be worse . So why do not we concentrate on arguments rather than whole stories from independence and measures and counter measures by both countries like in the ones you posted ? It matters not if it is a Pakistani article , it mentions nothing new or not already known , it mentions " India is trying to gain influence in the CIS " whilst mentioning things we know that haven't been successful thus far . This is what I mean by " nothing to substance " . If you post something specific from a credible source , I will be happy to share my views . Admitting something isn't hypocrisy , but why make " bogeyman " when none exist ?

Well , a destabilized Afghanistan which happens to be most probable scenario will irk and affect every single of its neighbors including Pakistan . I haven't said anything about losing anything in India , I believe I said on this thread that the relations will not be at the cost of India , just like India-China relations do not come at the cost of Islamabad . Yeah , we know that already , dirty geopolitics and interests of different countries . The same thing which is happening now , the Americans aren't there for the love of Afghans and neither are you , right ? So to put the blame on a single country is most unwise . Actually people , some of them , are seeing the big picture here , first visit in the history , surely he wasn't wasting his time , he came with an agenda which suggest changing situations in the regions . As I said , trade changes nothing between two hostiles , at times it helps in maintaining better relations , but as I am seeing in the face off in Ladakh region at the moment not to mention continuous incursions along the LAC by both parties - PLA may have a higher number here , so things haven't gone that way .

The whole Middle East remains in the radar of big energy hungry countries - even yourself , I asked you what is the big deal about the Kremlin's desire to warm up its ties with GCC members ? Russians cant get over with an " olive branch " , if they want peace and stability in the Central Asia , they will need us for decades to come like the Americans and just like other International relations , it will run of quid pro quos , Pakistan will ask for favors for what it provides , it is as simple as that . There's a reason why I didn't rule out future Russian weapons sale to Islamabad .

Since they haven't disclosed the name of the "unspecified customer" , we have to rely on probability and they seem to be the only one with strong reasons to get that engine . I didn't say anything about stopping arms sale to China , it simple isn't possible since they pay and sign deals worth double or triple of what you do , look at the merchandise purchased from Soviets before . There's no comparison at all here . You need Russia more than it needs you so you cant dictate terms . Directly or indirectly to Pakistan , how does it matter ? You posted that statement and it said " something not selling any weapon " at all , I am not taking it literally , there's no other way to understand it . Both the IL-78 and tank parts sale were authorized by the Kremlin , that is the reason Kiev agreed to the deal in the first place . If you do not understand the meaning of the word " analogy " that isn't my problem .

You are free to live in delusion , what couldn't be done in 200 years and specially the last ten cant be suddenly changed back to normal just because coalition departs , which ironically would more worsen matters than improving it . Ground realities is what you should focus on and it remains grim as always . The Americans can propose and implement thousands plans and objectives but their progress during the last decade shows that it is mere "damage control" and " face saving exit" from a war now which they can neither fight to victory declaring Taliban to be not their enemies nor have the will left . Afghanistan hasn't hampered because there's nothing more left to be hampered , understand it that way .

Yes , it failed , research a little about it or just check the ending remarks where members expressed disappointment about not having Pakistan on board . If I am not mistaken , Hamid Karzai doesn't have any real power outside Kabul , that is why I called him an American installed puppet and sorry excuse of a Govt . Every country has double standards in the game of interests , call whatever you want to ISI wont change nothing . I never denied you have been allowed some presence for now but seeing how Mr Karzai is desperately negotiating for peace with Taliban as withdrawals draws nearer , I wouldn't be happy . A possible mining contract and training of some personnel is what you have to show in your progress card ? Actually the same Chahbahar port provides electricity to Gwadar and seeing how Iranians are more interested in co-operating by offering investments in Gwadar including building refinery rather than seeing us rivals or competing , there's nothing to worry about seeing how Tehran hasn't ever allowed anti-Pakistan activity from its soil .

I will ignore the tantrum about " failed state " here , not interested in taking flame baits . As for Afghanistan descending into civil war , I said it wont be harmful for the region including my country itself but seeing the number of players who are expected to fight with their own supported militias like before , Pakistan will not be able to do anything in that situation . Who are you to say anything if it is the Americans and Afghan Govt interested in negotiating with Taliban , not us ? I am not betting on future , I am just mentioning the most probable scenario which the analysts agree on .

I was expecting this OBL raid rhetoric to come in , possibly you do not have a habit of understanding statements in the right context or properly , how many times have someone fought a war inside our borders since we became nuclear power , now go and read again the thing about the " borders not being breached " and hence any future possibility being very little . Nothing is hanging over our head , because Dushanbe knows its vulnerabilities and is just too little to involve itself in a fight of big countries so again I doubt any attack taking place from there ever . So , what help is a base which cant be allowed to used in in case of hostilities because the country hosting it understands its delicate situation ?

I showed you a picture of the exact same location mentioned in the article , now it can be 1-3 year old even though more chances are that it is recent , but since you believe more a report than a satellite image , I have nothing more to say except that it is merely exaggeration . You can search up the whole eastern Omani coast minus the Ra's Al Had and tell me if you find something of interest . I told you that original report mentions the same area when you were denying it , read it again and see what it says . Relearn the meaning of the word " FACT " instead of attaching it with every report that suits you . The google statement says the time to acquire high resolution is 1-3 years so common sense dictates that the time would be much less for extremely low resolution images ( comparatively ) like these .

Even using the finest of the supercomputers , it is just impossible to crack AES . Except I accept by taking advantage of rarely found vulnerabilities , I know there are other methods but has it been cracked yet ? Any exploits are quickly taken care of by the experts and the algorithms are refined . For here " the offense is not developing faster than defense " . Sensitive military communications are usually encrypted to the highest levels of security and you know that , why would Pakistan be any exception ?

Now that is a fine example , proving that required range is indeed achievable , but still I see nothing like that in the picture of the area , mate , hence no reason to believe that it is there . Remaining Oman being a neutral country in its history will not allow anything that may develop animosity towards Muscat in either country . As they call them " The Swiss of the Middle East " .

No worries at all , drop the pipeline issue since you agree with me on " its just good business "

 

[kalu_miah]

Much ado about nothing. Tajikistan will remain a Russian satellite state as it always has been. The Russians allow Tajiks to make some money from Indians, just like they allow Kyrgyz to make some money from the US, with their Manas base. That is the model here. In the end the Russians call the shots in this space and no one else. Everything else is pure speculation and wishful thinking.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Much ado about nothing. Tajikistan will remain a Russian satellite state as it always has been. The Russians allow Tajiks to make some money from Indians, just like they allow Kyrgyz to make some money from the US, with their Manas base. That is the model here. In the end the Russians call the shots in this space and no one else. Everything else is pure speculation and wishful thinking.

Now you understand why we've been waltzing with Petrushka from Rossiya for all these years, to get some of the action. That is what the report is all about!

 

[kalu_miah]

Now you understand why we've been waltzing with Petrushka from Rossiya for all these years, to get some of the action. That is what the report is all about!

Cold war has ended. Everyone is working towards a new future. Russia has and will have different evolving priorities. It may not want to loose its biggest defense customer, but what other source does India have? European and US sources are too expensive. You cannot go to China. Russians know it and that is why they can do as they please and not worry about loosing their customer.

 

[MilSpec]

Cold war has ended. Everyone is working towards a new future. Russia has and will have different evolving priorities. It may not want to loose its biggest defense customer, but what other source does India have? European and US sources are too expensive. You cannot go to China. Russians know it and that is why they can do as they please and not worry about loosing their customer.

An guess what Indian defence portfolio is not completely dependent on russia alone, there is significant involvement from france (Subs, avionics, combat aircrafts, Helicoptors), Germany (small arms, infantry systems), US (transport , combat heli's, missiles, munitions, ) Italy (arty systems, helicoptors, Naval vessels), Israel (avionics, missile, upgrades, munitions, small arms, UAV's, UCAV's, naval vessels), Poland (arty and land systems), U.K (arty systems, combat aircrafts, missile systems, avionics, enginers, trainer aircrafts).

With almost every major defence supplier courting Indian markets, it will be ridiculous for russia to take actions that would be counter productive to excellent relations it shares with india and loose it's share to eager suppliers waiting in line!