In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72%

[The Accountant]

i think, you aren't reading my posts carefully out of love for the govt.
there's no point in arguing and wasting time --- but the fact is, fbr dogs have been unleashed on orders of current govt.

I am reading all your posts

The fact is that the current government is pushing FBR for achieving the tax target and to increase the tax net but FBR dogs are incompetent to do so and rather going after already registered taxpayers ...

Can you please nominate a single person or single event where departments as big as FBR were reformed within 1 year of time anywhere in the world ... Just give me one such example ?

 

[ziaulislam]

I am reading all your posts

The fact is that the current government is pushing FBR for achieving the tax target and to increase the tax net but FBR dogs are incompetent to do so and rather going after already registered taxpayers ...

Can you please nominate a single person or single event where departments as big as FBR were reformed within 1 year of time anywhere in the world ... Just give me one such example ?

You will not find it done in 3-4 years either

Reality is reforms take time

If you read this purely economics sans emotion - basically the consumed imported services is down 2bn and worker remittances are up 2bn - over an 8 month period - like for like.

Would not call that as any change without understanding why only service imports changed and nothing else has moved. Never take a single month for national debt/deficit or trend calculations - at least take 3-4 quarters put together, else a big month of shipments will make you feel like all is well.

My 2 cents

You missed the point
The important thing is imports have flatline even if you exculde services

Exports will not pick up anytime soon..it will take another 6-12 months

Services are down due to devaluation and its still good news

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit Falls by 22.56 percent during July-Feb 19
By
admin
-
March 15, 2019

March 15, 2019 (MLN): Pakistan’s Current Account Deficit fell by 59.22 percent to USD 356 Million in February 2019 compared to January 2019.

According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the July-Feb 19 Current Account Deficit fell by 22.56 percent to USD 8,844 Million compared to USD 11,421 Million during the corresponding period from last year.

 

[Syed1.]

Excellent news.... The exports are not picking up though which is worrying.

 

[mastaan]

You will not find it done in 3-4 years either

Reality is reforms take time


You missed the point
The important thing is imports have flatline even if you exculde services

Exports will not pick up anytime soon..it will take another 6-12 months

Services are down due to devaluation and its still good news

imports falling given the treasury situation in last 1 year should be natural.. isn;t it? it is exports increasing that would be a leading indicator in case of Pakistan? Honest question - no cynicism

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

The general public does not understands the meaning of Deficit or Surplus what they understand is has the rupee value rose or dropped and have they gotten a salary boost or not


The news of drop in deficit is great , that economy is becoming healthy , we still need to fix our tax collection capabilities

a) How to extract taxes from every day man
b) How to extract taxes from small businesses that use paper money for day to day dealings

 

[ziaulislam]

imports falling given the treasury situation in last 1 year should be natural.. isn;t it? it is exports increasing that would be a leading indicator in case of Pakistan? Honest question - no cynicism

Correct but thinking export will rise suddenly is un realistic ...
14% rise in remittances is as good as exports

Imports drop is also due to local production of food becoming more competitive

So So import drop is useful regardless

The general public does not understands the meaning of Deficit or Surplus what they understand is has the rupee value rose or dropped and have they gotten a salary boost or not


The news of drop in deficit is great , that economy is becoming healthy , we still need to fix our tax collection capabilities

a) How to extract taxes from every day man
b) How to extract taxes from small businesses that use paper money for day to day dealings

Well than general public are idiots..
Example China devalued it rupee for last 20 years
So did turkey and india

So general public go by rupee value than God help us

 

[mastaan]

Correct but thinking export will rise suddenly is un realistic ...
14% rise in remittances is as good as exports

Imports drop is also due to local production of food becoming more competitive

So So import drop is useful regardless


Well than general public are idiots..
Example China devalued it rupee for last 20 years
So did turkey and india

So general public go by rupee value than God help us

Feb 18 and Jan 19 export and import numbers are pretty close.. this one month number of Feb has too much variance for an economy of the size of Pakistan.. Have a look at it your self.. plus it is one month.. may be good news but too short a time frame and too radical a change within a month for that to be representative.

If true on sustainable basis, it will be great for any economy. but this looks like a smudge, rather than a full stop. just saying

 

[CrazyZ]

Good start. Energy independence is key to our trade situation. Electricity from imported oil is more the twice as expensive as electricity in India, Bangladesh or Vietnam. That makes our manufacturing not as competitive and hurts our currency reserves. Thar coal power is coming online soon at rates lower then rivals. Hydro is also very cheap electricity...Basha and Mohmond dam have to be built ASAP. Pakistan has over 60 GW of cheap electricity potential just from Thar coal and Hydro...invest at least 5% of GDP in developing our indigenous energy and water infrastructure for a decade and the forex problems disappear and our economy will prosper.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Every Day Pakistani on Streets look at simple things

a) Are the roads Safe , police is there , theft is low
b) Water is available , clean and fresh , available when needed
c) Food markets are selling properly price items
d) Hospitals are being upgraded with new equipment , new beds , medicine cards
e) Tree plantation , across neighborhood and streets
f) Collection of garbage and cleaning
g) Transportation problems resolution
h) Entertainment avenues to spend the weekend
i) Street children or orphans are being moved to education centers
j) Is the graffiti on walls being cleaned removed and flowers are planted in towns
l) Electric wires are being replaced with new ones and less clutter

When Pakistan's currency becomes stronger , it opens avenue for foreign education or visiting foreign countries , shortages in Pakistan can be filled by purchasing from outside less money is needed to bring in more goods


Pakistan's general population won't be able to figure out impact of these accounting deficits or reduction but what people can see is changes on streets , school and hospitals and that needs to start happening in major cities mid level cities

80% of Pakistani people do not understand the term deficit or surplus
Today is so much deficit , tomorrow will be such and such deficit , and may be profit


If it was me I would impose a 100% ban on import of every thing except oil and gas into Pakistan


Asaad can say , about deficit reduction it is great news but the bottom news really is the impact on the streets of Pakistan!!! At grass root level

 

[ziaulislam]

Feb 18 and Jan 19 export and import numbers are pretty close.. this one month number of Feb has too much variance for an economy of the size of Pakistan.. Have a look at it your self.. plus it is one month.. may be good news but too short a time frame and too radical a change within a month for that to be representative.

If true on sustainable basis, it will be great for any economy. but this looks like a smudge, rather than a full stop. just saying

• last 6 months data is trend
• ignoring this month CAD still went down by 20%..that is not a smudge
• 14% consistent rise of remittances is not a smudge
• exports rise of 2-3% after down trend for 4 years is not a smudge
• exports will pick up in next 5-6 months once the effects of textile package and more market access in china kicks in
• significant change will only happen once all EPZ are build this will take 2-3 years

 

[mastaan]

• last 6 months data is trend
• ignoring this month CAD still went down by 20%..that is not a smudge
• 14% consistent rise of remittances is not a smudge
• exports rise of 2-3% after down trend for 4 years is not a smudge
• exports will pick up in next 5-6 months once the effects of textile package and more market access in china kicks in
• significant change will only happen once all EPZ are build this will take 2-3 years

6 months data was not visible in the report, so i had no way to assess that.. My comments were only based on Jan'19, Feb'19 and Feb'18 numbers. Remittances increasing is great news, but has little or not effect from Pakistan Govt.. It is your diaspora doing well? Market Access in china has never been your problem, ability to manufacture and export good quality stuff has been the challenge. Has the Govt announced some SOPs for the textile business that you are referring to?

The rest, I agree with you that trend would be encouraging; if your numbers are true.

 

[Shahzaz ud din]

Economy to grow at average of 5.4% in 5 years, 4% in 2018-19
By
admin
-
March 17, 2019

March 17, 2019: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at an average of 5.4 percent during the next five years, with highest growth of 6.7 percent to be witnessed in fiscal year 2022-23, according to preliminary figures of 12th Five Year Plan (2018-23).

According to the provisional figures of the draft 12th Five Year Plan, the economy would grow at four percent during the current fiscal year (2018-19), followed by 4.6 percent growth rate in FY 2019-20, 5.5 percent growth in 2020-21, 6.2 percent in 2021-22 and 6.7 percent in 2022-23. At average, the economy would grow at the rate of 5.4, according to draft of the Five-Year Plan.

The break up figures reveal that the agriculture sector would grow by 1.9 percent during the current year followed by 3.2 percent growth in 2019-20, 3.7 percent in 2020-21, 3.9 percent in 2021-22 and four percent in 2022-23. At an average, the agriculture sector would grow at 3.3 in next five years.

The industrial growth is expected at 2.8 percent during the current fiscal year, followed by 4.3 percent expansion in 2019-20, 6.1 percent in 2020-21, 7.6 percent in 2021-22 and 8.4 percent in 2022-23. The average growth of Industrial sector is expected at 5.8 percent during the next five years.

The services sector of the country is projected to grow at 5.1 percent during the fiscal year 2018-19, followed by 5.2 percent in 2019-20, 5.8 percent in 2020-21, 6.4 percent in 2021-22 and 6.9 percent in 2022-23. The average growth during the next five years is expected to remain at 5.9 percent.

The plan identified eight main drivers of economy including rural transformation (farm and non-farm sector), productivity and efficiency, broadening of industrial base through vibrant small medium enterprises sector and mining clusters. In addition, private sector investment and competitiveness, governance, innovation and reforms in various sectors, construction sector, specialized economic zones enhancing domestic production base would be main drivers of economy.

The 12th Five Year Plan envisages balanced and equitable regional development, sustainable, inclusive, job creating, and export led growth besides ensuring food, energy and water security.

The plan also aims social protection and poverty alleviation, improving human resources, governance and gender balance, improving local and regional connectivity, moving towards knowledge economy and green and clean Pakistan.

(APP)