In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72%

[Shahzaz ud din]

In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72%
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1106653445983854592
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PTI

✔@PTIofficial

PTI govt policies gradually improving external indicators of Pakistan. In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72% and at a 29 month low of $356M compared to $1280M in last Feb. Less deficit means lesser reliance on external debt & more space for providing relief to public.

 

[ziaulislam]

If CAD of 400 million is maintained for next 12 months this will be 5b dollars which is the target (~1.7-2% of GDP)

This will be difficult if oil picks up and once summer fuel import start to kick in but will hope exports and remittances keep the current pace of 12-14% and 2%(hopefully near to 10%)

This will mean adjustment of 70% from projected 24b dollars without really hurting the growth(down to 4.4% from 5.2%) the drop in growth is more due to fiscal adjustment rather than CAD curtail(down to 5% from 6.6%)

The fiscal deficit will probably touch 5.5 and may even go further due to three reasons
1. Additional 400b in interest rates
2. Loss of 400b from oil and mobile and early tax relief by PMLN govt
3. War expensive of tune of 20b rupees

5.5% will still be a big achievement if it can be achieved..the key will be gas GIDS ..if that materialize govt will acheive 5-5.5%

Next year will be real challenge !

Will FBR deliver or not

Will see how exports do..the signs are not encouraging ..obviously the reforms package was just implemented so i dont expect changbefore 2 years

 

[Yaseen1]

good achievement we should determine the imported goods with countries having huge trade surplus with us and negotiate with them to reduce that surplus or import from countries with less trade surplus with us it will improve cad position without affecting growth and standard of living of public

 

[The Accountant]

If CAD of 400 million is maintained for next 12 months this will be 5b dollars which is the target (~1.7-2% of GDP)

This will be difficult if oil picks up and once summer fuel import start to kick in but will hope exports and remittances keep the current pace of 12-14% and 2%(hopefully near to 10%)

This will mean adjustment of 70% from projected 24b dollars without really hurting the growth(down to 4.4% from 5.2%) the drop in growth is more due to fiscal adjustment rather than CAD curtail(down to 5% from 6.6%)

The fiscal deficit will probably touch 5.5 and may even go further due to three reasons
1. Additional 400b in interest rates
2. Loss of 400b from oil and mobile and early tax relief by PMLN govt
3. War expensive of tune of 20b rupees

5.5% will still be a big achievement if it can be achieved..the key will be gas GIDS ..if that materialize govt will acheive 5-5.5%

Next year will be real challenge !

Will FBR deliver or not

Will see how exports do..the signs are not encouraging ..obviously the reforms package was just implemented so i dont expect changbefore 2 years

Fbr cant delievr ... the only tool they know is to keep pushibg existing tax payers ... they create baseless demands and the only justification they gave is they have targets

 

[ziaulislam]

Fbr cant delievr ... the only tool they know is to keep pushibg existing tax payers ... they create baseless demands and the only justification they gave is they have targets

Well than they will go home. Ik has made that clear

Build another institutions like motorway police if FBR doesnt work up

Send people to another country for trianing if needed

Digitialize economy

Send every FBR member records to audit to third party

good achievement we should determine the imported goods with countries having huge trade surplus with us and negotiate with them to reduce that surplus or import from countries with less trade surplus with us it will improve cad position without affecting growth and standard of living of public

Issue is simple we dont produce...why blame it on others

For reference bangladesh CAD was 8-9b which is slightly higher than sustainable ..but never the less better than what pakistan had

Whole point is simple ..CAD didnt existed in 2007, 2010-211, 2014-2016

It happens when govt artificially manipulate the currency to keep inflation low which causes a vicious cycle of uncontrolled CAD ..secondly also uncontrolled and expensive debt

CAD WAS ARTIFICALLY CREATED BY PMLN PPPP AND LOGICALLY QUESTION ARISE WHO ASKED THEM TO DO IT

 

[shah_123]

Fbr cant delievr ... the only tool they know is to keep pushibg existing tax payers ... they create baseless demands and the only justification they gave is they have targets

this is on the current incompetent govt -- they have given the instructions to increase tax revenue.
the baboons in FBR are giving notices after notices to the existing tax payers. ---- After sending huge amount of notices, than starts the muk muka ---- it's money making season for the corrupt fbr.

 

[graphican]

The way Pakistan was being robbed, I expect IK to stop its rate of fall within the next 2 years, and then start a slow upwards recover and eventually gain within the next 5 years. If IK is able to do that, that will be human level miracle in itself.

 

[Death Professor]

Well than they will go home. Ik has made that clear

Build another institutions like motorway police if FBR doesnt work up

Send people to another country for trianing if needed

Digitialize economy

Send every FBR member records to audit to third party

its a tough task, can't happen in this democracy. People are not educated enough to know the role of government and what is responsibility of the citizens. Tax evasion and looking for loopholes is common, idher jab tak phanisan nahien lagien gi tub tuk kuch nahi honay wala.

There needs to be national emergency on tax collection but if they do it, they will lose vote bank. They can't remove FBR or any department because if they do, people working in those departments start a protest. I remember a couple of months ago they decided to do some changes to, i think radio pakistan or ptv, then they had to roll back or take back the decision because employees in those institutions started protesting.

Do you even know how much panic and chaos it will create if they put every business in the tax net? People would just straight up riot. In west you can't even start a food card without permit and papers. Here every corner you see a shop, thaila or whatever. They pay tax no... That's why I say it can't happen in a democracy, it happened in west because people were educated there, or the reforms were done 50 or 100 years ago. It happened in china because 'danda' rules, continuous reforms for last 100 years, people had to die in Mao era. Meanwhile our nation has become lazy and looks only for shortcuts. Here we have been molded into a corrupt culture and system, and people live with corruption as its part of their lives.

 

[The Accountant]

this is on the current incompetent govt -- they have given the instructions to increase tax revenue.
the baboons in FBR are giving notices after notices to the existing tax payers. ---- After sending huge amount of notices, than starts the muk muka ---- it's money making season for the corrupt fbr.

Dont you realize that mess of 4 decades cannot be cleared in few months ... can you please give a method by which any government can change this in few months ?

When did this practice started ? Who trained fbr for this practice ?

Government is not happy with this method of fbr but current priority of government is correction of external account and thats why they are givibg time to fbr for self correction ... its a war against corruption and you cant fight all the battles at the same time ... government has done remarkably well on foreign relations' security and external account ... fbr will be tackled in next financial year

Well than they will go home. Ik has made that clear

Build another institutions like motorway police if FBR doesnt work up

Send people to another country for trianing if needed

Digitialize economy

Send every FBR member records to audit to third party


Issue is simple we dont produce...why blame it on others

For reference bangladesh CAD was 8-9b which is slightly higher than sustainable ..but never the less better than what pakistan had

Whole point is simple ..CAD didnt existed in 2007, 2010-211, 2014-2016

It happens when govt artificially manipulate the currency to keep inflation low which causes a vicious cycle of uncontrolled CAD ..secondly also uncontrolled and expensive debt

CAD WAS ARTIFICALLY CREATED BY PMLN PPPP AND LOGICALLY QUESTION ARISE WHO ASKED THEM TO DO IT

I agree ... we need a new department specially to increase the tax base ...

 

[shah_123]

Dont you realize that mess of 4 decades cannot be cleared in few months ... can you please give a method by which any government can change this in few months ?

When did this practice started ? Who trained fbr for this practice ?

Government is not happy with this method of fbr but current priority of government is correction of external account and thats why they are givibg time to fbr for self correction ... its a war against corruption and you cant fight all the battles at the same time ... government has done remarkably well on foreign relations' security and external account ... fbr will be tackled in next financial year

I agree ... we need a new department specially to increase the tax base ...

i am sick & tired of hearing this again & again that the mess of four decades can't be cleared in few months, this has started sounding like a broken record.

this same fbr didn't black mailed/ threatened existing tax payers in the last govt.- why it's happening now ------- The fbr guyz clearly says that they have instructions to collect money * Full Stop --

by the time the fbr corrects itself ( 0% chance), business community & other tax payers will be on roads begging ---- and what sort of explanation is this that govt is busy with foreign relation, i mean this is the job of foreign affairs department --- what the hell that duffer Asad Umer has got to do with foreigh affairs??

suggestion is simple (given by lots of experts) , decrease tax rates & increase tax base --- This incompetent govt is content with the existing tax base + have increased tax rates, thereby, burdening existing tax base.

This govt. has unleashed wild dogs of fbr and they are having a field day black mailing tax payers --- and sorry to say, tax evaders belongs to elite class, forget abt increase in tax base.

 

[The Accountant]

i am sick & tired of hearing this again & again that the mess of four decades can't be cleared in few months, this has started sounding like a broken record.

this same fbr didn't black mailed/ threatened existing tax payers in the last govt.- why it's happening now ------- The fbr guyz clearly says that they have instructions to collect money * Full Stop --

by the time the fbr corrects itself ( 0% chance), business community & other tax payers will be on roads begging ---- and what sort of explanation is this that govt is busy with foreign relation, i mean this is the job of foreign affairs department --- what the hell that duffer Asad Umer has got to do with foreigh affairs??

suggestion is simple (given by lots of experts) , decrease tax rates & increase tax base --- This incompetent govt is content with the existing tax base + have increased tax rates, thereby, burdening existing tax base.

This govt. has unleashed wild dogs of fbr and they are having a field day black mailing tax payers --- and sorry to say, tax evaders belongs to elite class, forget abt increase in tax base.

If you r tired then why were you sleeping for past 4 decades?

Who told you that it is the first tjme FBR is coming after the tax payers because of targets onky? Do u havr any experience if dealing with them?

This is happening since atleast 5 years ... this is how ishaq dar operates ... they sometime demand to submit taxes in advances just to meet the target and it was completeky fine with pmln ... asad umer is irritated over this approach and thats why they r issuing warnings to fbr to change the attitutde ...

Regarding asad umer ... look at the current account deficit ... it has fallen sharply ... his focus is not on foreign affairs but external account ... i know how difficult it has become to remitt foreign currency outside Pakistan ... the questions being asked for every transaction are trumendous ... there r lot of changes in working mechanisim of sbp and commercial banks ...

How u suggest to broaden the tax base ? Do asad amar needs to go personally to all the non payers and demand tax ? He need team and the team he got is fbr ... if fbr has become incompetent in past now hiw u r supposed to replace a whole fucking organization in a short span ? You need laws' you need people' you need infrastructure you need trainings ...

We Pakistanies are out of mind ... we think everything can be done in a fraction of second whereas in reality most of dont want to take the pain ... look at how imran khan was back stabbed by his own people in punjab assembly ... this is our attitude ... there r only handful of honest people with imran khan and i think asad umar is one of them ... given him couple of years atleast ...

 

[shah_123]

If you r tired then why were you sleeping for past 4 decades?

Who told you that it is the first tjme FBR is coming after the tax payers because of targets onky? Do u havr any experience if dealing with them?

This is happening since atleast 5 years ... this is how ishaq dar operates ... they sometime demand to submit taxes in advances just to meet the target and it was completeky fine with pmln ... asad umer is irritated over this approach and thats why they r issuing warnings to fbr to change the attitutde ...

Regarding asad umer ... look at the current account deficit ... it has fallen sharply ... his focus is not on foreign affairs but external account ... i know how difficult it has become to remitt foreign currency outside Pakistan ... the questions being asked for every transaction are trumendous ... there r lot of changes in working mechanisim of sbp and commercial banks ...

How u suggest to broaden the tax base ? Do asad amar needs to go personally to all the non payers and demand tax ? He need team and the team he got is fbr ... if fbr has become incompetent in past now hiw u r supposed to replace a whole fucking organization in a short span ? You need laws' you need people' you need infrastructure you need trainings ...

We Pakistanies are out of mind ... we think everything can be done in a fraction of second whereas in reality most of dont want to take the pain ... look at how imran khan was back stabbed by his own people in punjab assembly ... this is our attitude ... there r only handful of honest people with imran khan and i think asad umar is one of them ... given him couple of years atleast ...

what should have i done for the last four decades?
yes i have 15 years experience of dealing with fbr -- and this is the first time they are attacking like wild dogs.
i am not saying that they were angels in the past, but this time it's different because Asad Umer has told them to collect money by hook or by crook.

Didn't i told you that it's the fucking elite which evades taxes and i can guarantee you that this fuckin govt can't do a thing about this --- okay fine, the organization can't be replaced overnight ( i never said to replace it overnight) --- i was talking about increasing taxes, now don't tell me that it's because of pvs govt' s this fuckin govt had to increase fuckin taxes.

 

[The Accountant]

what should have i done for the last four decades?
yes i have 15 years experience of dealing with fbr -- and this is the first time they are attacking like wild dogs.
i am not saying that they were angels in the past, but this time it's different because Asad Umer has told them to collect money by hook or by crook.

Didn't i told you that it's the fucking elite which evades taxes and i can guarantee you that this fuckin govt can't do a thing about this --- okay fine, the organization can't be replaced overnight ( i never said to replace it overnight) --- i was talking about increasing taxes, now don't tell me that it's because of pvs govt' s this fuckin govt had to increase fuckin taxes.

This is a big flat lie ... FBR was always like this ... Can you please tell me which zone and region are you talking about as I will be surprised to find angels ...

For the first time in history 2 biggest business tycoon are facing trials (mansha and malik riaz) and you are talking about nothing is happening ... are you blind or what ? Can you share one single such example from past ?

 

[shah_123]

This is a big flat lie ... FBR was always like this ... Can you please tell me which zone and region are you talking about as I will be surprised to find angels ...

For the first time in history 2 biggest business tycoon are facing trials (mansha and malik riaz) and you are talking about nothing is happening ... are you blind or what ? Can you share one single such example from past ?

i think, you aren't reading my posts carefully out of love for the govt.
there's no point in arguing and wasting time --- but the fact is, fbr dogs have been unleashed on orders of current govt.

 

[mastaan]

In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72%
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1106653445983854592
View image on Twitter


PTI

✔@PTIofficial

PTI govt policies gradually improving external indicators of Pakistan. In Feb, Current Account Deficit decreased by 72% and at a 29 month low of $356M compared to $1280M in last Feb. Less deficit means lesser reliance on external debt & more space for providing relief to public.

If you read this purely economics sans emotion - basically the consumed imported services is down 2bn and worker remittances are up 2bn - over an 8 month period - like for like.

Would not call that as any change without understanding why only service imports changed and nothing else has moved. Never take a single month for national debt/deficit or trend calculations - at least take 3-4 quarters put together, else a big month of shipments will make you feel like all is well.

My 2 cents