Things are unraveling real fast. I am disappointed at how the military is behaving. It makes little sense to me what is going on.
There is no head of tale on the strategy by the military.
Someone needs to give them some guidance on how this will play itself out, and in every scenario the choices are from bad to worse. Right now the only thing the army can do is to opt for the least painful choice for them. I am glad however that it seems like they have taken advice I had given earlier on, on how Bajwa needs to manage his brand.
Here are the 3 potential scenarios: Bad, worse and horrible.
Bad scenario - a limping gov somehow manages to cling to power for 6 months. In the process they rip apart any semblance of institutions, resulting in press suppression, Pakistani Expat suppression, political suppression. Economy goes from bad to worse, and country teeters towards default, and becomes even more dependent on Western foreign powers. Alliances with China erode, and Western and Indian influence increases in political and military circles.
Worse Scenario - Some leadership quarter in the army push the military to more of a confrontational path. They go after PTI, press and foreign Pakistanis, doing exactly what they are saying they are likely to do. Issue Red notices for Pakistanis and Media. Country moves further to polarization, and Army goes fully Egypt mode. People and the Army move towards a clash and we see their core bases within Punjab and KP openly revolt. Army discipline and Formation's are eroded and we see some parts openly flout orders. Resignations and outright refusal of orders begin and we see and clash between the public and the Army. Western powers take advantage of this an given our Nuclear abilities raises issues in the UN and force direct intervention to save nuclear sites.
Horrible scenario: IK or some of the PTI supporters are hurt or killed. Open anti-Army sentiment boils over to an armed resistance. Leadership is vilified and chased, and army splits within itself from the weight of the tugs from different quarters. Foreign intervention as above stated happens as well.
The above are likely scenarios at play. In each of these the economy will be another major player, and we'll see a complete unraveling of the economic fabric of the nation. The enemies of Pakistan will use this opportunity to pump in money and links, further ripping the nation apart. In the end people will forget PML and PPP, and the Army will have to face the back lash. And no matter how many PRs they do it will not help. They will loose from all ends. They never had any natural alliance with PML and PPP, and the one potential alliance which does exist with the PTI supporters will be lost as well.
The only somewhat decent choice for Bajwa is the following: If he fails to implement the following, he and his family will face the brunt of Pakistanis wherever they go, even if it is Belgium or some other national capital. I am afraid he does not appreciate the extend of the animus that exists. Not sure how he thinks he can come out of this clean in anyway.
In the end Bajwa has two options: Martial law, and be prepared for a massive national insurgency.
Second option: conduct national elections while still army chief and find power restored back to IK, while still a chief so he has the ability to truly say I was neutral. That will be the only way to manage this crisis. No other way works for him and the Army. Another option which is a slight derivative is to have the speaker/ECP reject the resignations. Move BAP and a few others back to the PTI camp. Have another VNC, and elect IK back and then allow for a dissolution of assemblies. THIS IS THE BEST SCENARIO.
Army has lost its national support, even within its own ranks. The leadership needs to take heed and change before it harms the institution beyond what it already has. The harm to the current leaders who have participated in this intrigue is unavoidable. The question is how bad will it be. Some of the above options give them a slightly face-saving, somewhat graceful exit. For them they only have a bad choice in a list of terrible choices.
