Imported Prime Minister Shehbaz says, "IMF giving tough time to finance minister, team during talks"

[epebble]

He had degree in public finance and political economy. That is quite a fluffy field . Not hardcore quantitative economics.

This:

Dr. Miftah Ismail​ Special Assistant to the Prime Minister and Chairman Prime Minister’s Office, Board of Investment Dr. Miftah Ismail holds a PhD in Public Finance and Political Economy from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania. A professional economist, he worked at the IMF before coming back to Pakistan. He has a proven track record of leading some of the exciting names in the Country including Chairman- Suit Northern Gas Company Pakistan, Director Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (2013 – present), Vice Chairman Punjab Board of Investment and Trade – 2012, CEO Ismail Industries Ltd, and Candyland Confectionery (1993 – present) and CEO Astroplastics Pvt. Limited

Makes me believe he is a genuine economist. Working in IMF is the equivalent of being a surgeon in a surgery or a soldier in a war. Being a quant is not an advantage in dealing with sovereign debt crises. Being a political economist is a plus.

This seems good work:

Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes​ Miftah Ismail Ahmad, University of Pennsylvania Abstract​ This dissertation seeks to provide a rational explanation of legislative decisions on distributive issues. The legislative process is modeled as a non-cooperative majority rule game with an external veto, and agenda independent equilibria are characterized for this game. Three separate essays apply the model to important areas of public policy. The first essay models Distributive Policy and shows that a Veto-Overriding coalition would form in every period if the game is finitely repeated, and the universal coalition will form if the game is infinitely repeated. Without assuming fiscal illusion, it is shown that the universal coalition may be inefficient, and an upper bound on the level of inefficiency is obtained. Empirical tests, based on federal expenditure data, support the theoretical predictions. The second essay studies distributive tax expenditures, which are tax benefits (exemptions, deductions, credits) provided to narrowly targeted groups. Equilibrium predictions are generated for a dynamic game played by forward-looking players. When all legislators do not have the same ex ante probability of being part of the winning coalition, the model predicts the existence of a tax expenditure cycle, with the universal coalition alternating with a minimum winning coalition. Empirical tests find the existence of cycles in distributive tax expenditures. A study of amendments to the tax code also supports the theoretical predictions. In the third essay, a noxious facility is modeled as sited by a legislature. We examine two regimes. The first has A Priori Guaranteed Compensation (APGC), the second does not, although compensation is allowed to emerge as part of the equilibrium. For each regime, equilibria are characterized under three institutions: legislative majority rule, host-site veto rule, and unrestricted veto rule. The APGC regime leads to efficient equilibria under all three institutions. Furthermore, a majority of legislators prefers the APGC regime, even when the majority does not benefit from a noxious facility. Thus, the sophisticated voting equivalent of the "metagame" (choice over regimes) produces efficiency. The results are applied to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. It is argued that Congress adopted all the provisions identified for an equilibrium repository selection. Subject Area​ Political science|Economics Recommended Citation​ Ahmad, Miftah Ismail, "Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes" (1990). Dissertations available from ProQuest. AAI9112531. Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes This dissertation seeks to provide a rational explanation of legislative decisions on distributive issues. The legislative process is modeled as a non-cooperative majority rule game with an external veto, and agenda independent equilibria are characterized for this game. Three separate essays... repository.upenn.edu

 

[Paji]

A professional economist, he worked at the IMF before coming back to Pakistan.

Sir, anyone can call himself a professional economist. I personally know several people who graduated from schools like Harvard, MIT, Stanford, etc with a PhD in economics. A job at the IMF is quite low down the pecking order for the top candidates who prefer to get academic jobs.

 

[Ssan]

I like Miftah- he is not the smartest cookie as far as cookies we have seen in govt in the last two decades or so. You should see what he said on muzzamil podcast before assuming office. About how to adequately price electricity.

Tells you all you need to know about his convictions in political economy. Much better than Dar though. By entire boatloads.

 

[epebble]

Sir, anyone can call himself a professional economist. I personally know several people who graduated from schools like Harvard, MIT, Stanford, etc with a PhD in economics. A job at the IMF is quite low down the pecking order for the top candidates who prefer to get academic jobs.

It is all relative. I am not saying Miftah Ismail is same caliber as Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke. Just comparing him to the incumbent Dar who replaced Miftah. Dar is so clueless that he has a deer in headlights look since the crisis hit. He is so genuinely lost in terror that he is constantly praying.

 

[S.Y.A]

a few steps that can be immediately taken:
1. end 150% allowance that showbaaz gave to civil servants and sectt employees in july budget.
2. End petrol monetization admissible to civil servants and sectt employees.
3. reduce petrol quota available to all deptts, judiciary and military included.
4. reduce working days to 4 days a week. 1 day should be wfh. or implement hybrid system to reduce energy, petrol etc consumption, across the country.
5. stop all imports and force the industries to develop local parts and materials. only allow imports for export-oriented industries.
6. document economy. increasing duties, and sales taxes will achieve nothing. direct taxation needs to improve, but that requires legwork, and the FBR, and the politicians are too corrupt to do that.
7. adopt e-office adn erp systems in all govt deptts, including military and judiciary. be transparent about all purchases and dealings. improve the puplic procurement system.

 

[maithil]

This:

Dr. Miftah Ismail​ Special Assistant to the Prime Minister and Chairman Prime Minister’s Office, Board of Investment Dr. Miftah Ismail holds a PhD in Public Finance and Political Economy from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania. A professional economist, he worked at the IMF before coming back to Pakistan. He has a proven track record of leading some of the exciting names in the Country including Chairman- Suit Northern Gas Company Pakistan, Director Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (2013 – present), Vice Chairman Punjab Board of Investment and Trade – 2012, CEO Ismail Industries Ltd, and Candyland Confectionery (1993 – present) and CEO Astroplastics Pvt. Limited

Makes me believe he is a genuine economist. Working in IMF is the equivalent of being a surgeon in a surgery or a soldier in a war. Being a quant is not an advantage in dealing with sovereign debt crises. Being a political economist is a plus.

This seems good work:

Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes​ Miftah Ismail Ahmad, University of Pennsylvania Abstract​ This dissertation seeks to provide a rational explanation of legislative decisions on distributive issues. The legislative process is modeled as a non-cooperative majority rule game with an external veto, and agenda independent equilibria are characterized for this game. Three separate essays apply the model to important areas of public policy. The first essay models Distributive Policy and shows that a Veto-Overriding coalition would form in every period if the game is finitely repeated, and the universal coalition will form if the game is infinitely repeated. Without assuming fiscal illusion, it is shown that the universal coalition may be inefficient, and an upper bound on the level of inefficiency is obtained. Empirical tests, based on federal expenditure data, support the theoretical predictions. The second essay studies distributive tax expenditures, which are tax benefits (exemptions, deductions, credits) provided to narrowly targeted groups. Equilibrium predictions are generated for a dynamic game played by forward-looking players. When all legislators do not have the same ex ante probability of being part of the winning coalition, the model predicts the existence of a tax expenditure cycle, with the universal coalition alternating with a minimum winning coalition. Empirical tests find the existence of cycles in distributive tax expenditures. A study of amendments to the tax code also supports the theoretical predictions. In the third essay, a noxious facility is modeled as sited by a legislature. We examine two regimes. The first has A Priori Guaranteed Compensation (APGC), the second does not, although compensation is allowed to emerge as part of the equilibrium. For each regime, equilibria are characterized under three institutions: legislative majority rule, host-site veto rule, and unrestricted veto rule. The APGC regime leads to efficient equilibria under all three institutions. Furthermore, a majority of legislators prefers the APGC regime, even when the majority does not benefit from a noxious facility. Thus, the sophisticated voting equivalent of the "metagame" (choice over regimes) produces efficiency. The results are applied to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. It is argued that Congress adopted all the provisions identified for an equilibrium repository selection. Subject Area​ Political science|Economics Recommended Citation​ Ahmad, Miftah Ismail, "Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes" (1990). Dissertations available from ProQuest. AAI9112531. Essays on the political economy of resource allocation through democratic processes This dissertation seeks to provide a rational explanation of legislative decisions on distributive issues. The legislative process is modeled as a non-cooperative majority rule game with an external veto, and agenda independent equilibria are characterized for this game. Three separate essays... repository.upenn.edu

Better than Dar for sure. It's amazing how the worst person is handling such crucial ministry when Country is facing its worst financial crisis.

 

[hembo]

His opinions may be unpopular, but 'idiot' is not an appellation one can attach to a Ph.D. in Economics from Wharton. Nathan Porter of IMF, currently performing a colonoscopy on Dar is also a Ph.D. in Economics from Wharton.

About the smarter people: why don't they raise their voice and suggest some solutions? At least they can write Op-eds. I have not seen any. Except one or two from Ex SBP Governors, who do appear to know a thing or two about economics.

There was also this other guy from IMF, who was hastily called by IK for consultation and was thrown out at equal speed due to strong resistance by religious parties including Maulana Diesel. The guy probably was an Ahmedi. He was also supposed to be a good economist. Forgot his name.

 

[epebble]

It's amazing how the worst person is handling such crucial ministry when Country is facing its worst financial crisis.

Here is my hypothesis: Pakistan is a car stranded on roadside because the fuel gauge is reading empty. That is a big pain if nearby gas station is far. But to your good fortune, a good Samaritan stops over and gives you a five-gallon gas can and goes his way. You are overjoyed and get down to filling the gas tank. After you pour the gas into tank, you try to start but the engine cranks but doesn't start. Because the spark plugs are worn out. That is Pakistan's problem now. Money can be arranged somehow, but there is no capacity to run a functioning polity. That can't be fixed with dollars. This is the new Lebanon. Times 40.

 

[ghazi52]

,.,.,.

Pakistan Premier Says IMF Giving Nation ‘Tough Time’ on Loan​

• Currency and bonds fell after Prime Minister Sharif’s remarks
• Pakistan reserves dwindled further to $3.09 billion on Jan. 27

Kamran Haider and Faseeh Mangi
February 3, 2023

The International Monetary Fund is giving Pakistan a difficult time in ongoing bailout negotiations, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, heightening the stakes for a country already in the throes of its worst economic crisis in decades.

“As I’m speaking, the IMF delegation is in Islamabad and definitely giving a tough time to the finance minister and his team,” Sharif said in a speech Friday in the city of Peshawar. The IMF is scheduled to hold talks in Pakistan through Feb. 9 to revive a stalled $6.5 billion loan program.

Shehbaz Sharif
Photographer: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP

Sharif said the IMF’s requests for unlocking funds from the program are “beyond imagination,” casting doubt on how soon the nation can expect money to ease 48-year-high inflation and supply shortages.

The IMF funds are also crucial for securing more aid from Middle Eastern countries. Pakistan is struggling to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves to pay for imports and interest on its debt. After Sharif’s speech, the country’s currency and dollar bonds fell.

“The prime minister is under a lot of pressure as he has to face people in upcoming elections due at the end of this year,” said Adnan Khan, head of international sales at Intermarket Securities in Karachi. “He is left with no choice but to accept the harsh IMF conditions. Anyone in his position would do the same.”

Pakistan has a tumultuous track record with the IMF. Most of its previous bailouts — 13 since the late 1980s — weren’t completed. But earlier this year, Sharif’s government loosened its grip on the Pakistani rupee and raised fuel prices, signaling its determination to negotiate.

Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves have dwindled to $3.09 billion as of Jan. 27 — equivalent to less than a month of imports. Local banks are refusing to issue letters of credit, leading to a standstill that could force businesses to shut down.

The rupee fell 1.7% to a record low 275.0250 on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bonds due in April 2024 were indicated 0.3 cents lower at 56.94 cents on the dollar.

Last year’s devastating floods, which caused billions in damage, have added to the woes of an economy already reeling from political turmoil and fallout from the war in Ukraine. Borrowing costs are the highest in 24 years..

The government secured a $1.1 billion loan last year, part of a $6.5 billion package that was stalled due to Islamabad’s failure to meet loan conditions, including boosting energy prices. On Friday, Sharif said Pakistan has no choice but to make compromises.
“We have to meet them in any condition,” he said.

— With assistance by Karl Lester M Yap

Pakistan Premier Says IMF Giving Nation ‘Tough Time’ on Loan

The International Monetary Fund is giving Pakistan a difficult time in ongoing bailout negotiations, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, heightening the stakes for a country already in the throes of its worst economic crisis in decades.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[blain2]

Honestly if PTI were to come back to power and ask the people to help out…overseas and local combined will give more aid than IMF with no strings attached nor promise of payment back…only if Pakistan was this lucky..

I understand your sentiment but that is not true nor is it possible. Had it been possible then in the past 3 years of PTI rule, expat Pakistanis would have done their part to bridge the gap in our deficit. It did not happen even though the PTI government was flirting with the IMF this entire time.

So let's no over-promise what we as a nation cannot deliver.

Relying on remittances to run your economy is a pathetic solution. We should either export enough or not import too much to run a deficit.

Our single biggest inefficiency is the underperforming sea of masses along with an abysmal tax collection rate. Nothing except retooling the useless awaam towards more meaningful export ventures will help.

As much as the IMF is maligned, they should beat our governments (PDM, PTI no exception) with jootay on their heads....no slack. This is because our own fiscal indiscipline leads us to this bakvas. Tax the useless money sitting in real estate. Tax agriculture, be extremely judicious in giving subsidies to industries on the basis of performance. Industries/industrialists who don't perform, their subsidies should be withdrawn. If industries are importing then they must export as well....(not my idea but that of a very learned Pakistani whose name I am forgetting.)

 

[TheSolution]

The tragedy for Pakistan is, however far and wide you seek, there are no intelligent leaders. The entire 'brain' trust consists of { Sharifs, Zardaris, IK, Dar, ....... } Unfortunately, I will not hire any of them to manage my local Walmart or Costco. If an empirical observation may be made, it is this: Pakistan has sorted itself into two fractions. The more intelligent Pakistanis are outside Pakistan, and the less intelligent Pakistanis are inside Pakistan. The ones on the outside are wondering, how come all those in the country are so stupid, either unwilling or pretending not to understand how it happened.

Brain drain is a valid point but it's also severe nepotism

Family/political connections can even get a failed homosexual into governing positions.

 

[epebble]

Brain drain is a valid point but it's also severe nepotism

Family/political connections can even get a failed homosexual into governing positions.

Civil-military strife and inter-party and intra-party disputes get a lot of airtime here and elsewhere. But not much analysis on crowding out of talented by the talentless in the government and administrations.