IMF only viable option, PM Imran Khan told: Is it true?

[BATMAN]

Saudia Joining CPEC AS Partner or investor is another win for CPEC

Last i remember PTI had cancelled CPEC !? When did the resume CPEC?

elayed Projects have been which were not part of CPEC directly (i.e Management)
All the workers which worked for Chinese firmed feared for their Jobs and Chinese Government

You are make a false statement…. Chinese companies working in Pakistan had admired the diligency of local staff on many occasions.
Thus far projects were ahead of schedule and the quality is such that never applied in Pakistan.
Projects started to face hurdles from the moment Imran Khan took over. Now Chinese are made to run after bureaucracy appointed by Khawar Manik via Usman Buzdar.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

All CPEC project are 100% ahead of time or on time it is fact all projects under local management have been marred with problems

a) Riqo Diq Minning Project :
Delayed due to mismanagement and confusion

• Nothing extracted for 10 years

b) Nandi Poor DAM project :
Launched 2 times and then it crashed and new parts ordered from USA and then work repeated second time for already completed work

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nandipur_Power_Project

Ownership
Nandipur Power Project is owned by Government of Punjab and operated by the Nandipur Thermal Power Generation Company Limited, which was incorporated on 2 January 2014 with its head office located in Lahore. this in punjab​

c) Islamabad Airport :
Delayed , Delayed and then Delayed again while contractor repeated work is 95% done

 

[pragmatic_dude]

A lot of cheer-leading , a lot of wishful thinking in this thread. Before i put my two cents forward , a little preface :
I have just recently interned with an IIM-B prof helping him with a whitepaper on Indian Fiscal deficit situation, so while not an expert in this field , I have gained a fair idea.( The prof. was congress aligned so the paper was quite adversarial in nature) .
I am also very involved with policy work on other fronts (mostly related to parliamentary reforms , if you think your government is fucked up, you will be surprised to learn how much of that is due to the bad policy infrastructure that is available to MP's)

So, with that being said . let's just jump in .....

On a global level three major things are happening :-

1. Crude prices are going up due to Iran sanctions, OPEC countries reducing Oil production after Shell got successfully killed .This particularly hits hard on oil dependent countries like India , Pakistan
2. US macroeconomic data has been doing well.
   
3. A lot of developing economies are in trouble ( S.A, Brazil, Turkey, Russia).This is resulting in Global Investors pulling out in general from developing countries and reinvesting in U.S .I see @BHarwana posting some odd threads about investors pulling out money from Indian markets, while i suspect his numbers but that phenomena is happening across all developing countries

So, some people here comment about loans from China/Saudi/ . Either they are kids with no knowledge of economics or jingoistic Drum Beaters. It's almost cringey reading their comments.
From DAY - 1 it was clear that Pakistan had no other option other than going to the IMF.Even a second grade economist would have told you that (privately at least).All this bullshit about loans, about getting investment from overseas Pakistani's was just that ...B.S.

So , We got that clear, let me tell you why IMF is good, a hard sell I know but hear me out :

1. IMF provides the loans at the cheapest rates ( STFU, i already knew that , you shout at me, bear with me till the second point please....)
2. Government Economic bodies secretly love IMF World Over. IMF suggest or rather forces reforms most which the economic council of Pakistan would have already suggested/pleaded/begged the GOP to implement.Now they have no choice to but implement these policies.
3. These policies can be labelled in two buckets :
   1. Short Term : Slashing developmental budgets, raising taxes, increasing interest rates ( All of these very unpopular with the populace)
   2. Long Term and Frankly the most important : Introducing frameworks like Congressional Budget Office in USA, setting up fiscal policy institutes ( via legislature) which sets binding fiscal targets/Debt ceiling for government at both state and federal level (All of these are very unpopular with ruling govt. and bureaucracy)

If you want to know why Pakistan in this mess , its because of point number 2.IMF is an enabler for these polity changes in loads of developing countries, which otherwise the rulers will never implement.

So there my two cents, oh...wait, coming from an Indian that would be my (2/million) cents....coincidentally this also happens to be the probability that Pakistani won't go to IMF to solve it BOP crisis.

 

[shah_123]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1049126796027985920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1048998781189013504

The nation (common people) must get ready, chuna lagnay wala hai.

 

[RoadRunner401]

you cannot privatize loss making entities because no one will buy them...

We lose 500 billion rupees annually because of failing enterprises. This can't go on, no matter what! Pakistan can raise up to $5 billion in privatization revenue in the next two years to ease pressure on strained public finance.

Several foreign investors, including the World Bank's private-sector arm, the International Finance Corporation, and the U.S. mutual fund Fidelity Investments had shown interest in the companies, but Nawaz government back down because of the resistance from thousands of political appointees (workers) and opposition parties(pee pee pee,MQM) who were and are against the plan.

"The answer to our current economic malaise lies not in hawking of state-owned institutions but in restructuring these industries," Bilawal Bhutto, chief of the former ruling Pakistan People's Party.

why is an agriculture country producing surplus wheat which no one will buy, but imports oil,pulses and tea worth 3-4 billion dollars?

Not sure, can't answer that without looking deep into it, but from what I have gathered so far, since last couple of years, is simple Pakistani bureaucrats and their political daddies(PML-N OR PEE PEE PEE) will sell and buy anything that will help their personal finances they don't care what happens to the country for example PIA profitable routes given to Turkish and GCC airlines.

IK has to make the tough decision and make them fast revenue collection and stop the bleeding should be priority number one. you have to remember the silent majority that wanted the change, came out and voted for IK making PML_N and Pee Pee Pee irrelevant and If IK was to show he is serious about getting the job done, those political dynasties are as good as dead.

 

[xyxmt]

I am going to give one example for the situation of Pakistan and mental status of Pakistani people:

in 1980s I left Pakistan, before I left I visited my father's village, it was lush green with huge trees and farmers were sowing all kind of corps in their fields.

my Last trip to Pakistan in 2017, the entire village looks like barren land, no crops to see anywhere, all trees have gone, apparently sold for wood and no new trees planted. Trees sold for money, no need to grow any new crops no need to hard work, enjoy money from trees your parents planted but don't plant anything for your kids.

Youth in the village believe PTI can change the fortunes of this country.

keep blaming politicians as if they came from another planet and stole your riches, keep hoping for next Khan after this one leaves.

 

[ziaulislam]

Imran khan needs to do the right thing ..if people rejects him for doing the right thing than the country doesnt deserve to exist

 

[!eon]

Imran khan needs to do the right thing ..if people rejects him for doing the right thing than the country doesnt deserve to exist

Govt leader must not be a corrupt, but also must not be a dumb

Yar we cannot look to past and present and mourn and do nothing for future. It's my personal opinion that tax base can be broadened if we start collecting Zakat as tax, which it is actually.

Institutions are corrupt to the core and are huge money pits. What is the use of tax collection, even if everyone starts paying half of the earned income in income tax?
Though many General ranked experts on this forum don't agree, but the basic problem is corruption and all other problems are due to this basic problem.
Govt has resources, and other than tax, resource generation is not a problem. This country is full of resources, but the first thing is to fix the money pits.
At the moment, if you calculate indirect taxes in Pakistan, they might reach half of the income of a common man. So they are already paying more than enough, but all this money ends up in shadow accounts.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Unlike PPP and PML-N who took many turns to rob and indebt Pakistan with massive loans many PTI supporters are much more critical and balanced when it comes to accountability. PPP and PML-N supporters usually vote on ethnic and linguistic basis. They don't look at the performance of their leaders and parties. Many PTI supporters consist of swing and new voters. Once they see any negligence or mismanagement PTI will suffer.

Whether you like it or not, it is a bitter fact that past policies by PML-N and PPP have put Pakistan in this economic malaise. Asad Umar had clearly outlined all options even before his government was sworne in. For some people, barring Indians, to act like this wasn't part of the deal is a little awkward.

Imran Khan and PTI are not above the law. Neither do they have a magic wand to solve all problems. When time comes everyone will judge Imran Khan's performance pragmatically and in a balanced manner.

We will be lenient on economic measures though. The state that Imran Khan's government inherited the ill economy was never easy. Basically, PML-N has put the economy into the intensive care unit. PTI will be trying to recover this mess during their entire term. The plan will be to increase reserves, formulate policies which prevent Pakistan from ever getting into this state and revive the economy as much as possible. No, this won't be an easy task. Even the whole term will realistically be very short to properly take care of these problems.

Having said that, right know we will give them benefit of doubt. Even if they go for IMF loans there is obviously a good reason for doing so. When other nations aren't willing to provide money the government has to take a decision.

 

[!eon]

Imran Khan and PTI are not above the law. Neither do they have a magic wand to solve all problems. When time comes everyone will judge Imran Khan's performance pragmatically and in a balanced manner.

It's actually another Bhutto in making and PTI walas are another form Jialas.

All the actions of Imran, good or bad are legitimate and he is an untouched holy.

 

[I.R.A]

Institutions are corrupt to the core and are huge money pits. What is the use of tax collection, even if everyone starts paying half of the earned income in income tax?
Though many General ranked experts on this forum don't agree, but the basic problem is corruption and all other problems are due to this basic problem.
Govt has resources, and other than tax, resource generation is not a problem. This country is full of resources, but the first thing is to fix the money pits.
At the moment, if you calculate indirect taxes in Pakistan, they might reach half of the income of a common man. So they are already paying more than enough, but all this money ends up in shadow accounts.

My proposal for Zakat to be declared as tax on everyone is

• To make tax laws and system tax payer friendly and easy to understand
• When the law is simple and implementation is universal and uniform, the chances of corruption go down
• This way tax litigation an unnecessary burden on our judicial system will be reduced to almost nil
• This would break the tax practitioner and lawyer mafia, who have plagued the whole system and made it so complicated that 90% of Pakistanis including organisations would need their services. And this same mafia happens to be behind the scene adviser on tax reforms. So you can imagine.

 

[Super Falcon]

Policies of IK no difference from harif and zardari putting all finacial burden on public which is already cash strapped private sector is forgotten by govt to put govt hold on them so they pay atleast salaries so worker in private sector can keep up with increasing prices
Bringing forwign investment creating jobs easy but forgoteen how should they pay the workers in provate sector civil war in pak im seeing is imminent current dollar 135 per dollar is a nail in a public coffin

 

[maithil]

So China was giving loans at 13-14% interest.
While IMF last time gave at 8.76%. Guess you need to pay 5% extra for "sweeter than honey" loans.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1049395546098724866

 

[ziaulislam]

It's actually another Bhutto in making and PTI walas are another form Jialas.

All the actions of Imran, good or bad are legitimate and he is an untouched holy.

PTI had two options after other states refused to help
Either be defaulted and rupee will have NO VALUE at all
Or do devaluation of 10-15% as told by IMF given regional devaluation of 10-15% ..

Now what would sane person do...

Remwber this us not first time when nawaz let the country at bink of default it happned in 1998 which led to not 10-15% devaluation but 100% i mean 100% devaluation

So China was giving loans at 13-14% interest.
While IMF last time gave at 8.76%. Guess you need to pay 5% extra for "sweeter than honey" loans.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1049395546098724866

False IMF loans at 2-3% vs china 3-4% vs bonds 6-7%

Other countries that throw in bonds early pay a much larger interest but its worth the economic independence

Bond was not an option as it was too late....the tine was last year
I think the AB announcement was after they were told about IMF

It's actually another Bhutto in making and PTI walas are another form Jialas.

All the actions of Imran, good or bad are legitimate and he is an untouched holy.

What proof do you have...not speaking facts is diagnostic sign of jiyalas, youthias and matwals

If he performs bad and is defended than yeah but so far i dont see him performing bad...probabydelay in going to IMF can be an issue but he wanted to avoid it which is obviously logical to follow hugh growth trajectory ..currently though growth will not exceed 5% given high inflation and fiscal tightening

Textile should be haooy labour just got a lot cheaper

 

[maithil]

False IMF loans at 2-3% vs china 3-4% vs bonds 6-7%

Other countries that throw in bonds early pay a much larger interest but its worth the economic independence

Bond was not an option as it was too late....the tine was last year
I think the AB announcement was after they were told about IMF

This is what a PTI minister is telling. I am sure he is better informed than either of us after all he has insider information.