If Grexit happens would Greece be allowed to side with Russia/China?

[atatwolf]

I read some columnists say that the EU shouldn't let Greece go because it could ally with Russia and China. They could let Russia or even China build a military base in Greece in return for hefty loans. I'm going to explain how that will never happen. If Grexit happens and such a possibility arises, Europe would face the same situation it faced in 1946 where Greek communist tried to ally with Russia. If a Grexit happens it will undeniable go with a Greek civil war like in 1946. The Greek left will fight against the Greek right and multiple scenario's are possible:

1. Greece reaches a deal with creditors
This is still likely. In this scenario Greece won't leave European alliance for Russia or even China.

2. Military coup before the shit hits the fan
This option is not very likely. Before the Greek communist can screw things up and let a Grexit happen, the Greek military can do a coup to save Greece from becoming a pariah state. The Greek military won't give up their NATO alliance for unreliable alliance with Russia or even China.

3. Military coupe after the shit hits the fan
Military coup happening before shit hitting the fan is unlikely since there is no public support. I think a military coup happening after a Grexit is much more likely. A Grexit will undeniably go with a lot of chaos and even a possibility of a civil war. In such case, there would be support for a military coup by the Greek public to set things in order. The Greek military will come in power and won't give up their NATO alliance for unreliable alliance with Russia or even China.

4. No military coup and Greece allies with Russia or even China in return for loans
First of all Russia or China doesn't have that kind of money to bail-out Greece. Russia or China can barely keep their own pants up due to their horrific economy at the moment. In all cases Greece allying with Russia or China would be a very bad choice for Greece. I'm saying that assuming that Greeks are logical creatures which is a huge assumption. Greek communist and logic doesn't go together so there would be a possibility that Greece could allow Russian or even Chinese military base in Greece in return for some lousy loans.

In a scenario where Greece allows a Trojan horse into the belly of Europe, things could go very ugly for Greece. We would definitely see a repetition of 1946 Greek civil war where communist will be crushed with the help of the US. There is just absolutely no way Europe will allow a Trojan horse to exist inside Europe. Ukraine is still on the edge of Europe. Greece is right in the belly of Europe.

Answer to Greece in case it let's a Trojan horse into Europe
-Economic sanctions
-Political isolation
-Support for pro-Europe groups in Greece in case of Greek civil war
-Support for neighbors of Greece to take parts of Greece

 

[ArsalanKhan21]

Greeks are free loaders but als know where their meal ticket is coming from. They will accept the terms dictated by Troika and receive loans to pay back loans and support their budget.

 

[As is - where is]

Sadly I'm not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching a deal with the current government. What I predict is that a solution won't be found, we'll default and then we'll have elections where a pro-European coalition wins, manages to reach a deal with Europe in a short time and saves the country.

I hope that we won't have to go through all of this though. If we reach a deal before June 30, that'd be very good but I'm not sure at all if the government MPs will actually vote in favor of the agreement in parliament. In that case we will again have to form a pro-European coalition that will negotiate and manage to save the country again.

And then there's the bad scenario that after the possible default the government either refuses to go to an election or actually wins the election with a pro-Grexit mainfesto...

 

[-SINAN-]

Sadly I'm not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching a deal with the current government. What I predict is that a solution won't be found, we'll default and then we'll have elections where a pro-European coalition wins, manages to reach a deal with Europe in a short time and saves the country.

I hope that we won't have to go through all of this though. If we reach a deal before June 30, that'd be very good but I'm not sure at all if the government MPs will actually vote in favor of the agreement in parliament. In that case we will again have to form a pro-European coalition that will negotiate and manage to save the country again.

And then there's the bad scenario that after the possible default the government either refuses to go to an election or actually wins the election with a pro-Grexit mainfesto...

Mate...do you think Greeks will vote for pro-European parties ? After all Syriza won the previous election in the first place...

Another think i want to ask is; Why you are still spending so much on military ?

Greek Military expenditure (% of GDP) is 2.5
Where as German Military expenditure is 1.3.
Military expenditure (% of GDP) | Data | Table

 

[Steve781]

With Macedonia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Belarus all in the Russian orbit could we be seeing a "great schism" in Europe? Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are now the only Orthodox countries hostile to Russia.

 

[Echo_419]

Sadly I'm not very optimistic about the possibility of reaching a deal with the current government. What I predict is that a solution won't be found, we'll default and then we'll have elections where a pro-European coalition wins, manages to reach a deal with Europe in a short time and saves the country.

I hope that we won't have to go through all of this though. If we reach a deal before June 30, that'd be very good but I'm not sure at all if the government MPs will actually vote in favor of the agreement in parliament. In that case we will again have to form a pro-European coalition that will negotiate and manage to save the country again.

And then there's the bad scenario that after the possible default the government either refuses to go to an election or actually wins the election with a pro-Grexit mainfesto...

Where do you stand personally if Greece defaults

 

[As is - where is]

Mate...do you think Greeks will vote for pro-European parties ? After all Syriza won the previous election in the first place...

Another think i want to ask is; Why you are still spending so much on military ?

Greek Military expenditure (% of GDP) is 2.5
Where as German Military expenditure is 1.3.
Military expenditure (% of GDP) | Data | Table

Well the Greeks voted for pro-European parties in the 2012 elections. Why not now as well? Especially after they see how awful this government was and what it really means to default on your loans...

There was actually a proposal by the creditors recently. They asked us to proceed in cuts of defense spending because, as they claim, military spending in Greece is too high, since they make 2.3% of our GDP.

The weakening of the armed forces would inevitably lead to a geopolitical and geostrategic downgrade of Greece in an area full of problems while at the same time it involves the serious danger of making the defense of the country inadequate in the long term. Greece is geographically positioned between the West and the East. The war in Syria, the war in Ukraine, the political instability in Turkey, the Turkish claims in the Aegean, the Albanian disputes in the Ionian, the intention of Greece for research and exploitation of hydrocarbons are a range issues of national security and vital national interest that need to be safeguarded. Especially when, compared to 2009, the budget of the Armed Forces has shrunk by 58% already.

Where do you stand personally if Greece defaults

I think that if Greece defaults we should have a unity government that will attempt to reach a deal with the EU.

 

[xenon54 out]

the Turkish claims in the Aegean

Not accurate, Turkey doesnt claim Aegean, it just doesnt accept the 12nmi law but proposes 6nmi instead which wont cut Turkeys connection from Black Sea to Mediterranian.
Well there are also disputes about small islands a couple miles away from Turkish coast but all in all thats it.

As the lately deceased ex-Prime Minister/President Süleyman Demirel said ''Aegean is not a Greek Lake, Aegean is also not a Turkish Lake because Aegean isnt a Lake in the first place.''

 

[Saif al-Arab]

@As is - where is

I once read (not long ago) several articles about Arab investments in Greece (mainly coming from the GCC) and also about Egypt increasing their cooperation with Greece. Do you have any information about that? Do Arabs invest in Greece nowadays or have they pulled the stick out due to the economic situation in the country and all the uncertainty that comes with that?

Greece is a neighbor to the Arab world after all and recently I even learned about the Emirate of Crete.

Emirate of Crete - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tourism remains the main source of income for Greece (if I am not wrong) but is tourism going to be effected if the Greek state is declared bankrupt?

 

[atatwolf]

With Macedonia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Belarus all in the Russian orbit could we be seeing a "great schism" in Europe? Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are now the only Orthodox countries hostile to Russia.

These countries won't stick their *** out for Russia. During Bosnia war, Serbs thought Russians would save then again but instead they watched how they got crushed.

Well the Greeks voted for pro-European parties in the 2012 elections. Why not now as well? Especially after they see how awful this government was and what it really means to default on your loans...

There was actually a proposal by the creditors recently. They asked us to proceed in cuts of defense spending because, as they claim, military spending in Greece is too high, since they make 2.3% of our GDP.

The weakening of the armed forces would inevitably lead to a geopolitical and geostrategic downgrade of Greece in an area full of problems while at the same time it involves the serious danger of making the defense of the country inadequate in the long term. Greece is geographically positioned between the West and the East. The war in Syria, the war in Ukraine, the political instability in Turkey, the Turkish claims in the Aegean, the Albanian disputes in the Ionian, the intention of Greece for research and exploitation of hydrocarbons are a range issues of national security and vital national interest that need to be safeguarded. Especially when, compared to 2009, the budget of the Armed Forces has shrunk by 58% already.



I think that if Greece defaults we should have a unity government that will attempt to reach a deal with the EU.

If it is already 58% down and Greece can't afford fuel or to maintain its tanks and jets at current expenditure, just imagine when more cuts come down the road. I mean you can have the physical military assets but without training they are useless. IMHO Greece should switch to a ceremonial army with those Greek revolution costumes. The current army expenditure of Greece is not feasible in the future. It doesn't matter if Greece stays in or out of EU. Greece has to come to good terms with its neighbors. Somehow Greece managed to be hostile to all its neighbors; Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria and Turkey at the same time. It has used EU leverage and military leverage but that is not an option anymore.

 

[flamer84]

With Macedonia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Belarus all in the Russian orbit could we be seeing a "great schism" in Europe? Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are now the only Orthodox countries hostile to Russia.

Moldova is not hostile to Russia,she's just trying to be friendly with everybody in a game way over its head.

 

[As is - where is]

Not accurate, Turkey doesnt claim Aegean, it just doesnt accept the 12nmi law but proposes 6nmi instead which wont cut Turkeys connection from Black Sea to Mediterranian.
Well there are also disputes about small islands a couple miles away from Turkish coast but all in all thats it.

As the lately deceased ex-Prime Minister/President Süleyman Demirel said ''Aegean is not a Greek Lake, Aegean is also not a Turkish Lake because Aegean isnt a Lake in the first place.''

Well I didn't say that it claims all of the Aegean but that it has some claims in the Aegean. The 12nmi/6nmi is the main point of disagreement I guess. Turkey says that 12nmi would cut its connection from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean although Greece argues that it's guaranteed due to the international concept of innocent passage.

I once read (not long ago) several articles about Arab investments in Greece (mainly coming from the GCC) and also about Egypt increasing their cooperation with Greece. Do you have any information about that? Do Arabs invest in Greece nowadays or have they pulled the stick out due to the economic situation in the country and all the uncertainty that comes with that?

Greece is a neighbor to the Arab world after all and recently I even learned about the Emirate of Crete.

Emirate of Crete - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tourism remains the main source of income for Greece (if I am not wrong) but is tourism going to be effected if the Greek state is declared bankrupt?

The previous years there was lots of interest. This year investment has come to a halt from everywhere sadly.
These are interesting articles:
Al Maabar wins $9.7bn Greek contract | ConstructionWeekOnline.com
Prince Alwaleed eyes investment in Greece - ArabianBusiness.com

Tourism makes up 18% of the Greek GDP. Everything will be affected by a possibly bankruptcy. The economy is already in a very bad state. In these five months the economy has gone back into a recession. Nobody would visit a country with serious capital controls that is very unstable fiscally and politically.

 

[Saif al-Arab]

The previous years there was lots of interest. This year investment has come to a halt from everywhere sadly.
These are interesting articles:
Al Maabar wins $9.7bn Greek contract | ConstructionWeekOnline.com
Prince Alwaleed eyes investment in Greece - ArabianBusiness.com

Tourism makes up 18% of the Greek GDP. Everything will be affected by a possibly bankruptcy. The economy is already in a very bad state. In these five months the economy has gone back into a recession. Nobody would visit a country with serious capital controls that is very unstable fiscally and politically.

Well, all the best to Greece. A country that has had very old ties with the Arab world dating back millenniums. Greek was even once spoken in Northern Hijaz as a secondary or third language after Arabic and Aramaic.

Also I have a weak spot for feta cheese and Kalamata olives and olive oil.

Anyway I don't think that Greece will go bankrupt let alone leave the EU and the Euro zone. It would be really bad for the EU considering other struggling economies such as Portugal and Spain that might follow. Then you got all the refugees in Greece and the politics (hardcore right-wing parties and left-wing parties gaining more influence). It could potentially become very ugly.

You will always have the tourism though unless the entire country and infrastructure falls apart.

 

[Serpentine]

Not accurate, Turkey doesnt claim Aegean, it just doesnt accept the 12nmi law but proposes 6nmi instead which wont cut Turkeys connection from Black Sea to Mediterranian.

How will that cut Turkey's route from Black sea to Mediterranean? Can you please explain it on a map?

 

[xenon54 out]

How will that cut Turkey's route from Black sea to Mediterranean? Can you please explain it on a map?

6nmi

12nmi