Zarvan
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by Dibyendu Sekhar Kumar
Present Environment and Points to Ponder:
The border talks between Indian and Pakistan armed forces have been in right spirits because both sides confined the discussions to technicalities of containing the tensions in border. The Pakistani officers were led by Rangers Director General Umar Farooq Burki and the Indian side was led by BSF Director DK Pathak. The Director Generals of the BSF and Pakistan Rangers held discussions till Saturday (12.09.15) and as it appears the situation which was close to boiling point two weeks prior to this had some what settled down as we have not heard large scale cross border firing in last couple of months. The talks as wanted by India had been confined to (1) restraint at LOC and (2) control of infiltration of terrorists.
The situation was in sharp contrast to fanfare with which the rhetoric ridden Pak withdrawal from NSA levels talks occurred two weeks prior to this on the grounds of India’s denial of approval to their meeting the Hurriyat members and incorporating Kashmir on the agenda. If we look into our self interest only India has still nothing to gain in any meeting at levels higher than the DGs as long as the border tension is kept at a low key.
For that reason no undue interest or hurry need to be shown on NSA level meets or meeting between PMs as these meetings for India can produce precious little. Expatriating Dawood and other miscreants can never be possible unless it is done through International pressure and consequent back channel diplomacy as the nexus of Army-ISI-terrorists in Pakistan will never be amenable to Pak PM. This nexus is the protector of Dawood and his compatriots as they protected Laden in Abbotabad fortress. USA and NATO could outplay this nexus for their strategic gains, but for us within our limited means it will remain a far cry.
In strategic international fora China plays its hidden cards to support Pakistan with obvious economic as well as strategic interests. Hence our China policy needs to be seriously revisited. A Chinese incursion in the northern front is quite remote now as it can be noted that China is having border disputes with all its southern neighbours and even with Russia in the north west. They are hard put to maintain a non aggressive image to assume a leading international peace keeping role at least in Asia and the far east from which Pak will gain a distinct advantage over India if we do not play our cards well.
Need of the Coming Decade:
In order to divert attention from domestic problem of terror and smoldering civil unrest, Pak along with its perpetual attempt to set ablaze Kashmir which India is hard put to quell, may also attempt a misadventure with covert help of China on India’s border to advance the LOC of Azad Kashmir as far as possible which inturn will make further ground for harbouring ISIS like terrorist camps of Azad Kashmir. Therefore before a combined combat force consisting of Iran, Afghanistan , India and Russia needs to be formed to confront the advances of ISIS beyond Syria and Iraq. This combined front which should be nuclear capable in short range is essential to be made to resist once and for all the spread of ISIS which can not be subdued by remote control of the West and indirect fueling and funding by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE which will inevitably eclipse this subcontinent if not thwarted on time and persistently on their constant advances over the years.
Hence India’s defense preparedness needs to be on the top order for meeting (a) some such sudden advances from Pakistan in 2 to 3 years and beyond that (b) to confront ISIS in its advances to infiltrate into the subcontinent. In this context it is of absolute importance that Iran and Afganistan are taken in full confidence by India against ISIS siting the instability that the rogue terrorist group has created in Iraq and thus prevent the route of ISIS through Iran which has borders with Iraq and Afganistan as well. It is needless to say that India is already a declared destination in the ISIS agenda.
They would strategically prefer sea route to land for infiltrating into India avoiding the perilous journey through Pakistan. So long India has done very litttle to protect its huge western coastline except deploying a few Pak- specific aircraft carriers. There is much to do in this regard to have a paradigm shift in our naval capability on the west i.e. on the Arabian sea. ISIS invasion will definitely not come by a large armada but may arrive in thousands by means of apparently innocuous fishing boats over several months and years landing stealthily on India’s vast western coastline and releasing terrorists in hundreds with their arsenal. Our naval preparedness should preempt ISIS advances. It will also need a huge paramilitary waiting to crush them on landing. Nabbing them and bringing them to trial would be ineffective as slight delay will enable them to mingle with the Indian population and form an inextricable and unassailable part of the coastal inhabitants on whom we can not wage a war.
Dibyendu Sekhar Kumar is an avid Defence enthusiast and a great Fan of IDN. This analytical piece was written by him exclusively for IDN.
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