IAF’s Possible Alternatives to the Rafale Deal

[shree835]

The IAF could, in the face of Dassault’s unrelenting series of unreasonable demands leading
to a total breakdown of the negotiations, take any of the following actions:

—1. IAF could quite easily close negotiations with Dassault citing the company’s desire to
reverse all the conditions set out in the very first call for participation as being totally
unacceptable; and opt to enter into negotiations with any of the other contestants
(Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing’s F-18E/F “Super Hornet”, Lockheed Martin’s F-16IN
“Viper”, SAAB’s JAS 39 “Gripen” or the Russian MiG-35) in the MMRCA competition.
From the point of view of costs alone; and also considering the larger strategic picture
given the increasing assertiveness and belligerence of the Peoples Republic of China
(PRC) as seen in the South China Sea, Senkaku Islands dispute with Japan and the more recent deep incursions by the Peoples Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) troops into Indian Ladakh near Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO), the Boeing F-18E/F “Super Hornet” may be the most suitable alternative aircraft to the Rafale in the long term interests of IAF and India.


2.
IAF could even forego the MMRCA altogether in favour of larger numbers of Su-
30MKIs and deeper upgrades to older types (Mig-29, MiG-27, Jaguar and Mirage-
2000), in order to extend their service life, as well as place larger orders of the LCA.
More Su-30MKIs would require just an extension of the license terms with Russia and
these aircraft would be built in India itself giving better control on technology
ownership while reducing the number of types in service. LCAs in larger numbers in
conjunction with more Su-30s would lead to a larger heavy and light end and a
relatively less populated medium force level; but all built in India with primarily
Indian acquired or owned technology. However, the weak middle end of the force
structure issue apart, in the long run this option is likely to give a major impetus to
indigenous design and development if for no other reason than there being no other
choice and for this reason this option may thus be in the longer term interests of the
country as well as the IAF.

3.

IAF could also forego the MMRCA in favour of larger numbers of Su-30MKI (including
the proposed deep upgrade of the Su-30MKIs to Super 3011 standard, which would
include several Fifth Generation features) and earlier induction of enhanced numbers
of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on Russia’s Sukhoi T-50
prototype, being developed jointly with Russia.

4.

Some of the funds currently earmarked for the Rafale purchase could be diverted
towards accelerating development of the LCA’s later and more advanced variants
(LCA Mk-II/III etc)12 as well as towards accelerated induction of FGFAs.

The possible options available bring out that the IAF is by no means powerless in face of
the apparent bullying by Dassault in the negotiations to finalise the MMRCA contract.
Unnecessary delay tactics by Dassault can be countered by IAF. The possible options
available make clear that the IAF can ensure its force structure remains as potent as desired
even without the Rafale deal fructifying, though with some re working of the long term plans already in place along with a reallocation of available funding. As per reports in
magazines such as India Strategic IAF is planning its long term structure to include 272
Su-30MKI, 126 MMRCA, incremental orders of LCA and 144 FGFA, aiming to build up to
42 Squadrons by 202713. In case MMRCA does not fructify the funds earmarked for this
program could be diverted towards increased numbers of any of the other aircraft types.
While the seller does have some advantages over the buyer in the prevailing situation,
however, long term interests dictate that undue advantages will be detrimental to the
overall strategic relationship between France-India. Historically, France’s aircraft industry
has had its footprint in India ever since the IAF first bought fighters from Dassault in the
early 1950s.
It would be prudent for Dassault to keep the negotiations for finalising the contract within
the boundaries set out in the initial RfI, RfP and Tender.

Conclusion
The MMRCA deal has progressed from the initial RfP to selection on technical merits
with Rafale as the first choice. However, exclusive negotiations with Dassault have dragged
on for over a year with media reports suggesting that Dassault is trying to change the
initial terms to evade several crucial clauses regarding ToT, work share to be undertaken
by HAL and overall responsibility, etc. All these points were the initial requirements to
be met by the vendor. Hence Dassault’s demand for changes is surprising. The IAF does
have several alternative options in case it becomes clear that Dassault is not really serious
about concluding the contract in line with the parameters set out from the beginning. In
the bargain it is possible that Dassault may lose out on this contract as well as vitiate the
atmosphere to the extent that in future the Indian military keeps the French arms industry
at arms length.

Vivek Kapur
Group Captain Vivek Kapur is Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence
Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi.

 

[Badbadman]

The deal will go through. Either way we have to fill the gap in our squadron strength. Mass producing Su 30 mki's and LCA mk2 with introduction of PAKFA could be financially better and good for our home made maal effort.

 

[shree835]

Bullying nature of Dassault is major issue for this MMRCA deal... It will be not surprising news if deal is getting canceled...I believe India should invest more on Super Sukhoi and mass produce LCA MK2...Dassault has done enough arm twisting job in case of mirage upgradation....In case deal is getting canceled France will be a big looser....Possibly they will have to shutdown Rafale Production line.

 

[anant_s]

Nothing concrete is in public domain as of now, so i suppose it is not correct to speculate why the deal is taking so long to get signed. Additionally there could be arm twisting from both sides as both parties want to get maximum out of the gigantic deal. to top it all impending General elections aren't making the matters any easier for the govt. Let us all be patient for a while, may be we are within 6 months of signing the deal.

 

[rockstarIN]

Investing in super sukois is a way out which should be over and above 272 mkis.

Apart from more lca mk2 and su30s we can get 50..70 m2ks from qatar or uae etc.

Remember the the Switzerland result where the same engied griptn fared rafale 70% at least.

So lca 2 in high numbers armed with Rafael or elta system stand off weapons will do the job.

 

[sancho]

—1. and opt to enter into negotiations with any of the other contestants

Wrong, if at all only the EF could be considered as an alternative, since it's the only other fighter that passed the technical evaluations (however it did that?), so no other fighter could be considered again.

2.
IAF could even forego the MMRCA altogether in favour of larger numbers of Su-
30MKIs and deeper upgrades to older types (Mig-29, MiG-27, Jaguar and Mirage-
2000), in order to extend their service life, as well as place larger orders of the LCA.

No, the MMRCA was needed mainly for 2 reasons. 1 because LCA is delayed, so that can't be an alternative to MMRCA again. Secondly, to have a capable alternative to the Russian fighters, mainly the Su 30, to not to be overdependent. That rules out more MKIs, or further extention of unreliable and less capable Migs too.

4.

Some of the funds currently earmarked for the Rafale purchase could be diverted
towards accelerating development of the LCA’s later and more advanced variants
(LCA Mk-II/III etc)12 as well as towards accelerated induction of FGFAs.

Doesn't make sense, because not a lack of funding is the problem for the delays in the LCA program, but development failures of core techs. Similarly, it's not money that holds up FGFA development, but slow decision making on our side, as well as not much focus on FGFA from Russian side.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The IAF categorically stated there was no back up plan involving additional MKIs or any other solution. The ONLY possible candiate is the EFT as it was declared the L2 bidder however I don't know if there are mechanisms in place to select a L2 bidder if talks with the L1 collapse. I'd say this option is doubtful as the CAG would certainly have a field day if such a decision was taken.



Latest official news is the Rafale deal will be inked by March 31st 2014 so this is just more hot air and blah blah blah.

 

[HIMALYA]

Doesn't make sense, because not a lack of funding is the problem for the delays in the LCA program, but development failures of core techs. Similarly, it's not money that holds up FGFA development, but slow decision making on our side, as well as not much focus on FGFA from Russian side.

Yes exactly and it has already cost us dear , since M777 plant has stopped production yesterday and BAE laid off their 200-300 employees .Yesterday was the dead line which GOI didn't meet. They said they can't continue the production in absence of new orders as that plant was already running in loss

 

[hari sud]

The French would not come around for any deal.

The sticking point is not French manufactured planes but planes to be assembled at HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited).

HAL has been a sticking point with IAF and elsewhere as unwieldy public sector undertaking where civil servants rule. It has to be broken up and some parts privatised. The forgoing is a long range solution.

Immediately, India has to begin negotiating with other number two contender (i.e. Euro - Fighter). I believe the same thing would happen a year later. They would not guarantee anything made by HAL. Hence time wasted.

Alternative would be to pick some of the alternatives discussed by the lead article and use next ten years to fix HAL.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The French would not come around for any deal.

The sticking point is not French manufactured planes but planes to be assembled at HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited).

HAL has been a sticking point with IAF and elsewhere as unwieldy public sector undertaking where civil servants rule. It has to be broken up and some parts privatised. The forgoing is a long range solution.

Immediately, India has to begin negotiating with other number two contender (i.e. Euro - Fighter). I believe the same thing would happen a year later. They would not guarantee anything made by HAL. Hence time wasted.

Alternative would be to pick some of the alternatives discussed by the lead article and use next ten years to fix HAL.

Well they actually have overcome this issue a while back so, moot point now.

Yes exactly and it has already cost us dear , since M777 plant has stopped production yesterday and BAE laid off their 200-300 employees .Yesterday was the dead line which GOI didn't meet. They said they can't continue the production in absence of new orders as that plant was already running in loss

Bro, this M777 deal will be signed in this fiscal and this job loss news will be ancient history. This is purely a short-term measure but WHEN India places the orders they'll be given the hours and be back to it.



No one is saying thats it for the M777 production line for good.

 

[HIMALYA]

Bro, this M777 deal will be signed in this fiscal and this job loss news will be ancient history. This is purely a short-term measure but WHEN India places the orders they'll be given the hours and be back to it.



No one is saying thats it for the M777 production line for good.

I hope you words prove to be true. Four years and M777 is still dragging on. I don't understand why our ministers and officials are trying to undermine our security requirements.

 

[shree835]

I hope you words prove to be true. Four years and M777 is still dragging on. I don't understand why our ministers and officials are trying to undermine our security requirements.

Coz those guys are highly corrupt...for them nation's security requirements is nothing... they are finding room for their pocket.

 

[rockstarIN]

@sancho

Welcome back bro...took long leave ..what happened?

on topic,

Since you mentioned MMRCA is because of the delay by LCA, why can't we 'lease' some fighters the way we leased nuke sub and long range bombers from Russia? like for 10 years 100 or so Mig 29ks or M2ks from Russia or French? till we get LCA?

 

[sancho]

@sancho

Welcome back bro...took long leave ..what happened?

on topic,

Since you mentioned MMRCA is because of the delay by LCA, why can't we 'lease' some fighters the way we leased nuke sub and long range bombers from Russia? like for 10 years 100 or so Mig 29ks or M2ks from Russia or French? till we get LCA?

Family matters got more priotities than hobbies, but now I got some more time again.

We leased a sub, that otherwise could't be bought and that lacked fundings to finish the construction. That's not the case with fighters, the M2K production for example is stopped and nobody is buying Mig 29Ks now, so who would take over 100 of them after 10 years or so? Buying 2nd hand fighters would have been an option and IAF tried it with Qatari M2Ks, but they asked for too high costs.
Infact, we should try to sell our last 2 Jaguar squads now, because nobody will buy them in a few years either and they are next to useless for us, other than keeping the squadron levels on paper.

 

[kaykay]

There's no alternative to Rafale now. We have to seal the deal by next year and I am sure that we will do that.