FuturePAF
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North Korea probably just tested its newest ICBM, the Hwasong 17/KN-28. It’s larger then it’s last most recent successful ICBM test of the Hwasong-15 a few years ago.
The Hwasong-17 probably is larger so it can accommodate 3-4 MIRVs and many Decoys. Considering the yield of the H-bomb test was approx. 250-300 kilotons (“A few hundred kilotons” per the Arms control Wonk podcast; yield calculated at seismic scale of 6.06 with the rock poor propagation formula inside a deep cavern), this new missile is probably just as capable as a missile of the major powers, except that it is liquid fueled. The size of the missile also limits its ability to hide and the time (hours) it takes to fuel on the grounds makes it a sitting duck to be knocked out before it can launch. If the North Koreans get a Solid Fueled ICBM with the capabilities of the Hwasong-17 it will be much harder to detect and defeat. Thankfully they are still dependent on using a liquid fueled system.
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The Hwasong-17 probably is larger so it can accommodate 3-4 MIRVs and many Decoys. Considering the yield of the H-bomb test was approx. 250-300 kilotons (“A few hundred kilotons” per the Arms control Wonk podcast; yield calculated at seismic scale of 6.06 with the rock poor propagation formula inside a deep cavern), this new missile is probably just as capable as a missile of the major powers, except that it is liquid fueled. The size of the missile also limits its ability to hide and the time (hours) it takes to fuel on the grounds makes it a sitting duck to be knocked out before it can launch. If the North Koreans get a Solid Fueled ICBM with the capabilities of the Hwasong-17 it will be much harder to detect and defeat. Thankfully they are still dependent on using a liquid fueled system.

North Korea fires first suspected ICBM since 2017
North Korea has fired what is believed to be its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in more than four years as Western leaders gather in Brussels for a security summit.

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