How will Turkey respond to Assad's Idlib operation?

[Agha Sher]

The last week has brought significant changes to Turkey's regional and global status, as the United States has imposed sanctions on a key NATO ally (?!) and is acting directly against the interest and internal security of Turkey in Syria.

Simultaneously, Russia seems to have backstabbed Turkey in Syria and started bombing Idlib in preparation for a large-scale Assad operation on the final remaining rebel territory. Assad has been moving masses of troops armour north to Idlib, where Turkey has several observation posts.

While Assad, Russia, the USA clearly are preparing themselves for their next move against Turkey with troop deployments, airstrikes and promises of conquest, we have heard and seen little from Turkey. We have observed no/little military movements on the Turkish side, despite claims from Erdogan on Idlib being a red line?

I hoped we could start a fruitful discussion on exploring Turkey's strategy on Idlib, if there is any? What preparation has the military taken to defend their outpost and what do Turkish leaders say about what's going on?

Hoping for a favourable outcome for Turkey and the safety of deployed soldiers in Idlib/Turkey.

 

[ScreamLikeMe]

They will talk to NATO and then act.

 

[HAIDER]

The last week has brought significant changes to Turkey's regional and global status, as the United States has imposed sanctions on a key NATO ally (?!) and is acting directly against the interest and internal security of Turkey in Syria.

Simultaneously, Russia seems to have backstabbed Turkey in Syria and started bombing Idlib in preparation for a large-scale Assad operation on the final remaining rebel territory. Assad has been moving masses of troops armour north to Idlib, where Turkey has several observation posts.

While Assad, Russia, the USA clearly are preparing themselves for their next move against Turkey with troop deployments, airstrikes and promises of conquest, we have heard and seen little from Turkey. We have observed no/little military movements on the Turkish side, despite claims from Erdogan on Idlib being a red line?

I hoped we could start a fruitful discussion on exploring Turkey's strategy on Idlib, if there is any? What preparation has the military taken to defend their outpost and what do Turkish leaders say about what's going on?

Hoping for a favourable outcome for Turkey and the safety of deployed soldiers in Idlib/Turkey.

Because of this ...presence of Chechen fighters in Idlib. When Russia was not part of Syrian war, when i saw first picture of Chechen fighter in Syria ,I predicated Russia is coming soon. Even if West try to stop. Also Turkey is more interested in ending Kurd uprising and armed groups .

 

[Agha Sher]

They will talk to NATO and then act.

NATO does not seem to be backing Turkey lately..

It seems like that Turkey has been isolated with no real/trustworthy allies in Syria. Russia backstabbed Turkey and bombed Idlib. the US continues to support YPG/PKK in Syria (which will fight Turkey's allies in Idlib), Saudi Arabia will not back Turkey given the Qatar issue...

 

[Faith_of_the_Fallen]

The last week has brought significant changes to Turkey's regional and global status, as the United States has imposed sanctions on a key NATO ally (?!) and is acting directly against the interest and internal security of Turkey in Syria.

Simultaneously, Russia seems to have backstabbed Turkey in Syria and started bombing Idlib in preparation for a large-scale Assad operation on the final remaining rebel territory. Assad has been moving masses of troops armour north to Idlib, where Turkey has several observation posts.

While Assad, Russia, the USA clearly are preparing themselves for their next move against Turkey with troop deployments, airstrikes and promises of conquest, we have heard and seen little from Turkey. We have observed no/little military movements on the Turkish side, despite claims from Erdogan on Idlib being a red line?

I hoped we could start a fruitful discussion on exploring Turkey's strategy on Idlib, if there is any? What preparation has the military taken to defend their outpost and what do Turkish leaders say about what's going on?

Hoping for a favourable outcome for Turkey and the safety of deployed soldiers in Idlib/Turkey.

It will be major blow to Erdoğan, if Turkish soldiers die due to Idlib Operation. Turkey cant stop Syria. Unfortunately, Turkey is an isolated actor currently. Greece+GreeekCyrpus+Egypt+Israel+Saudi+US+PKK, on the other hand Iran+Syria+Iraq+Lebanon+Russia+China and Turkey by itself with no allies. As you can see, Turkey will abide. Erdoğan will find some way to save face.

 

[Yatağanlı]

Turkey has lost in Syria and has almost no leverage on her rivals. So Erdogan is probably transform it into some kind of fake victory and blame everything on CIA.

 

[Agha Sher]

It will be major blow to Erdoğan, if Turkish soldiers die due to Idlib Operation. Turkey cant stop Syria. Unfortunately, Turkey is an isolated actor currently. Greece+GreeekCyrpus+Egypt+Israel+Saudi+US+PKK, on the other hand Iran+Syria+Iraq+Lebanon+Russia+China and Turkey by itself with no allies. As you can see, Turkey will abide. Erdoğan will find some way to save face.

Why can't Turkey stop Syria's operation?

I mean, Turkey has a dozen outposts there. These outposts and soldiers will be in danger once the fight starts, likely leading to casualties among the Turkish soldiers. Turkey needs to put its foot down and let Assad know that he cannot do whatever he wants. Turkey is well capable of leading a proper air raid on Assad's militia army and annihilate it.

 

[ghilzai]

Why can't Turkey stop Syria's operation?

I mean, Turkey has a dozen outposts there. These outposts and soldiers will be in danger once the fight starts, likely leading to casualties among the Turkish soldiers. Turkey needs to put its foot down and let Assad know that he cannot do whatever he wants. Turkey is well capable of leading a proper air raid on Assad's militia army and annihilate it.

Because these posts are in another sovereign nations territory.

 

[Agha Sher]

Because these posts are in another sovereign nations territory.

Syria is far from a sovereign country. It occupied by US, YPG, Hezbollah, & Iran - none which are loyal to Assad. Turkey should stop caring about the sovereignty of Assad's Syria and use force to show Assad his place

 

[ghilzai]

Syria is far from a sovereign country. It occupied by US, YPG, Hezbollah, & Iran - none which are loyal to Assad. Turkey should stop caring about the sovereignty of Assad's Syria and use force to show Assad his place

While I strongly oppose the pkk and any other group that wants to break turkey I can’t accept turkey taking land and setting up posts which belongs to others, turkey has love of many and these types of actions will only alienate it.

 

[Kamil_baku]

While I strongly oppose the pkk and any other group that wants to break turkey I can’t accept turkey taking land and setting up posts which belongs to others, turkey has love of many and these types of actions will only alienate it.

Turkey spent almost 45 billion$ for refugees.. its easy to say when nobody want to accept these refugees.. Turkey will save the area no matter what as its the only hope to return refugees and focus on economy...
I think Russia attack there just because they know that there is misunderstanding between HTS and FSA there and Russia take advantage.. But, when these countries are so close to each other, by adding US sanctions to Russia, Iran and Turkey at the same time recently, they will never fight each other as they also understand how important these places to Turkey..
DOnt really expect much from these attacks...

 

[Agha Sher]

Turkey spent almost 45 billion$ for refugees.. its easy to say when nobody want to accept these refugees.. Turkey will save the area no matter what as its the only hope to return refugees and focus on economy...
I think Russia attack there just because they know that there is misunderstanding between HTS and FSA there and Russia take advantage.. But, when these countries are so close to each other, by adding US sanctions to Russia, Iran and Turkey at the same time recently, they will never fight each other as they also understand how important these places to Turkey..
DOnt really expect much from these attacks...

The only solution for Syria is the creation of a democratic state of Northern Syria supported and protected by Turkey. Only in this way can refugees go home to a secure environment.

 

[blackeyes90]

The only solution for Syria is the creation of a democratic state of Northern Syria supported and protected by Turkey. Only in this way can refugees go home to a secure environment.

What kind a drug are you using ?

 

[Agha Sher]

What kind a drug are you using ?

They did it in Northern Cyprus in order to protect the Turk population from tyranny and oppression. They can do it in Northern Syria as well to protect the Sunni population from the tyrant Assad.

By any means, the creation of Northern Syria will in no way be as difficult as Northern Cyprus..

(cautious with your language - we are not baboons are we?)

 

[what]

They did it in Northern Cyprus in order to protect the Turk population from tyranny and oppression. They can do it in Northern Syria as well to protect the Sunni population from the tyrant Assad.

By any means, the creation of Northern Syria will in no way be as difficult as Northern Cyprus..

(cautious with your language - we are not baboons are we?)

We have no interest in creating a separate state, thats exactly the thing we're against in Iraq or Syria. And second I doubt that even our Islamists government would be interested in having an extremist neighbour in Idlib.

I would drop Idlib like its hot and keep whats left until negotiations are finished.