How much should India spend on defence?

[Abingdonboy]

This is a very tricky subject as I understand the demands on the national budget are extensive and I would like to make it clear that the economy and spending on infrastructure is paramount and should be the first priority of the GoI no matter what. However in the past few years an alarming trend has crept in wherein India is now spending around 1.8% of its GDP on defence, this is the lowest levels for many decades. For comparison's sake Pakistan spends around 4-5% of its GDP on defence, China around 2%, the UK and France around 2% also with the US around 3% of GDP. NATO requires all partners nations to spend a minimum of 2% of their respective GDPs on defence, I know India is in no way associated with NATO but I am using this as a benchmark.


I have just done some very quick and back of the envelope calculations, if India were to spend 2% of GDP on defence for the next 5 years its defence budgets would look like (assuming an average rate of 8% GDP growth):


2016- approximately $50 billion USD
2017- approximately $54 billion USD
2018- approximately $58 billion USD
2019- approximately $63 billion USD
2020- approximately $68 billion USD


Considering the state the Indian military has been allowed to get into thanks to a decade of neglect and even before that there was the so-called "lost decade" in the 90s, I would propose a hike to 2.5% of GDP temporarily for the next 5 years before the defence budget can be reduced back to the 2% of GDP annual figure thereafter. In such a scenario the defence budgets would look like:


2016- approximately $62 billion USD
2017- approximately $67 billion USD
2018- approximately $72 billion USD
2019- approximately $78 billion USD
2020- approximately $83 billion USD



As one can see this is quite a considerable difference we are talking about and that extra funding would be a great boost to the CAPEX budgets of all three forces and would certainly get the Indian military's modernisation drive back on track for 2020.





All (constructive) thoughts are welcome, thanks guys and girls






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[Khalid Newazi]

Why would you need a defence budget of 2.5% of GDP? Even some of the most developed countries use less than that and India has still a long way to go for development.

 

[UKBengali]

It is useless for India to be spending any more money as it would not guarantee any extra security.

India is already more powerful than Pakistan by a fair margin but a long way from even trying to match China. If India was to increase like is being proposed a far richer China would just need to spend a tiny amount more to maintain the power difference.

If anything, India should look at gradually reducing the defence budget down to at most 1.5% of GDP by 2020. The extra money could be funnelled into the economic and social development of India.

 

[Jungibaaz]

20% at least. Otherwise none of us will take you seriously.

 

[Quibbler]

Every penny in defence that is not technology development is a penny away from the infrastructural needs of the economy. I am a proponent for developing economy as the first line of defence followed by a armed forces supported by the economy .

So to give it a direction i would say acquisition plans requiring large capital should be avoided for 5-7 years wherever possible but capacity to build our needs indigenously should be a focus area .

Thus i would say 1.7 pc would be an ideal figure till we get our economic fundamentals back on track and the engines roaring.

 

[Agent_47]

20% at least. Otherwise none of us will take you seriously.

So, you were doing it to get our attention? You are not doing a good job.

 

[indo]

Mr Big Dong Boy, you live in UK. You are not Indian (as you say) but of course of Indian origin. You would like to see India strong, so do I. But we in India, have to live in misery.

I would like India to keep a deterrence. There are always holes in armor but so do our opponents. Let's make a $5 trillion economy, more jobs and better infrastructure first.

Dude , that's a bad way to talk to our own kin. Be polite please. He's just asking a question.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is a defense forum, people here will generally prefer a large defense budget for their country.

And I agree with them.

Being rich without having military strength will just lead to a Century of Humiliation.

 

[The Huskar]

A temporary hike of 2.5% may seem good but we do have to understand that GOI just slashed the education budget to make some room for more infrastructure fund in its latest budget.So I don't think that this government is going to increase its military budget beyond 2%.
More useful decision would be to reduce the Army personnal expansion plans and further reduce the manpower so that more money is there for mordernisation.

 

[Skull and Bones]

For 3 years, the budget should be increased to 2.5% of the GDP to provide extra funds for modernization of equipments, and then gradually reduced to 2% on a long term basis.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Does anyone take pakistan seriously, oconsidering 100% of the country is run for and by the army?

Looks like I pushed all your buttons.

 

[Mike_Brando]

@Abingdonboy mate,personally i think that a country like India which is surrounded by two nuclear armed potential adversaries with whom we have fought 5 wars in the past should spend at least 3% of it's GDP on military.3% of GDP roughly translates to around $68.5 billions which will be more than enough to cater the needs of our armed forces in the near future.

 

[Genesis]

For 3 years, the budget should be increased to 2.5% of the GDP to provide extra funds for modernization of equipments, and then gradually reduced to 2% on a long term basis.

This is a very tricky subject as I understand the demands on the national budget are extensive and I would like to make it clear that the economy and spending on infrastructure is paramount and should be the first priority of the GoI no matter what. However in the past few years an alarming trend has crept in wherein India is now spending around 1.8% of its GDP on defence, this is the lowest levels for many decades. For comparison's sake Pakistan spends around 4-5% of its GDP on defence, China around 2%, the UK and France around 2% also with the US around 3% of GDP. NATO requires all partners nations to spend a minimum of 2% of their respective GDPs on defence, I know India is in no way associated with NATO but I am using this as a benchmark.


I have just done some very quick and back of the envelope calculations, if India were to spend 2% of GDP on defence for the next 5 years its defence budgets would look like (assuming an average rate of 8% GDP growth):


2016- approximately $50 billion USD
2017- approximately $54 billion USD
2018- approximately $58 billion USD
2019- approximately $63 billion USD
2020- approximately $68 billion USD


Considering the state the Indian military has been allowed to get into thanks to a decade of neglect and even before that there was the so-called "lost decade" in the 90s, I would propose a hike to 2.5% of GDP temporarily for the next 5 years before the defence budget can be reduced back to the 2% of GDP annual figure thereafter. In such a scenario the defence budgets would look like:


2016- approximately $62 billion USD
2017- approximately $67 billion USD
2018- approximately $72 billion USD
2019- approximately $78 billion USD
2020- approximately $83 billion USD



As one can see this is quite a considerable difference we are talking about and that extra funding would be a great boost to the CAPEX budgets of all three forces and would certainly get the Indian military's modernisation drive back on track for 2020.





All (constructive) thoughts are welcome, thanks guys and girls






@sancho @Dillinger @AUSTERLITZ @Koovie @COLDHEARTED AVIATOR @bloo @Water Car Engineer @PARIKRAMA @JanjaWeed @Gabriel92 @nair @Span @levina @ayesha.a @IndoCarib @Indo-guy @janon @Mike_Brando @gslv @gslv mk3 @CONNAN @Unknowncommando @special @Chanakya's_Chant @Star Wars @Stark @anant_s @OrionHunter @Omega007 @indianrabbit @Bang Galore @tsinga @Major Shaitan Singh @kurup @Bombaywalla @wolfschanzze @Hindustani78 @The_Sidewinder

Out of curiosity, when is this end? When can Modernization be "finished?" It didn't end with T-90s, type 99 and even Armada or F-22, J-20 and FGFA, I doubt it's ever going to end.

So how can you hike it up a few years and then decrease? Today's treasure is tomorrow's garbage.

 

[Ajai Ghale]

For 2016

$50 Billion on Armed Forces

$15 Billion on CAPFs

 

[Armstrong]

Just a little correction : Pakistan's GDP (nominal) in 2014-15 stood at $250 billion1 whereas its Defense Budget was around $7 billion2,3 ; which means that Pakistan spends about 2.8% of its GDP (nominal) on defense and not 4-5% as stated above. If this was in PPP terms it would go down even further.

REFERENCES:

1. Report for Selected Country Groups and Subjects

2. Pakistan - Defense Spending

3. Budget 2014: Govt announces 700bn defence budget - The Express Tribune