How is GDP calculated by IMF, World Bank etc

[Indus Pakistan]

We always get these GDP per capita etc touted for countries but can anybody explain exactly how, for instance in a country like Pakistan is GDP calculated? I mean does a bloke go to every district of Pakistan and collate the economic activity? For instance did some dude go around in my native village in Pakistan and tabulate the economic productivity of the local barber, taxi driverm shop, farmer, butcher etc etc???

 

[Indos]

We always get these GDP per capita etc touted for countries but can anybody explain exactly how, for instance in a country like Pakistan is GDP calculated? I mean does a bloke go to every district of Pakistan and collate the economic activity? For instance did some dude go around in my native village in Pakistan and tabulate the economic productivity of the local barber, taxi driverm shop, farmer, butcher etc etc???

@Mista bro, this is your area of expertise, can you explain it to us here ......?

 

[Mrc]

It's all up in air.. Certainly in Pakistan its doesnt feel or look like its a lower income country

 

[ebrahym]

It's all up in air.. Certainly in Pakistan its doesnt feel or look like its a lower income country

well i think you need to travel more of the country and change your circle perheps..... there is a severe class divide in our country and moat of the wealth is held by few if not very few ......

 

[charene514]

We always get these GDP per capita etc touted for countries but can anybody explain exactly how, for instance in a country like Pakistan is GDP calculated? I mean does a bloke go to every district of Pakistan and collate the economic activity? For instance did some dude go around in my native village in Pakistan and tabulate the economic productivity of the local barber, taxi driverm shop, farmer, butcher etc etc???

IMF in particular relies on the govt data furnished to IMF.

They don't take the final figure of course but they take 1 or 2 level deeper data like auto sales / people who took loans / FDI / Interest Rate / Wage data etc etc. (furnished by govt or federal sources) and do their own calculation.

Since IMF captures data on a periodic basis, they cannot be retrospectively fudged at the very least.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

We always get these GDP per capita etc touted for countries but can anybody explain exactly how, for instance in a country like Pakistan is GDP calculated? I mean does a bloke go to every district of Pakistan and collate the economic activity? For instance did some dude go around in my native village in Pakistan and tabulate the economic productivity of the local barber, taxi driverm shop, farmer, butcher etc etc???

Not sure about the precise details of how it is done but I know it is NOT done independently. It can be open up to severe manipulation as the IMF has to rely on government data from the Countries concerned. There is NO standard basis where all countries are judged from the SAME criteria.

 

[Mista]

@Mista bro, this is your area of expertise, can you explain it to us here ......?

It's not my area of expertise, I just used to do some self-reading on the internet lol.

For developing countries with 'underground' economy, it's usually done through a process of sampling and estimation. Eg; out of 10000 people surveyed across the country, 2000 are farmers > roughly 20% of the population are farmers. The average farmer surveyed makes $1k a month, and then you multiply it by 20% of the population etc.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Here is a PHD analysis on how governments can manipulate data provided to the IMF:

It's not my area of expertise, I just used to do some self-reading on the internet lol.

For developing countries with 'underground' economy, it's usually done through a process of sampling and estimation. Eg; out of 10000 people surveyed across the country, 2000 are farmers > roughly 20% of the population are farmers. The average farmer surveyed makes $1k a month, and then you multiply it by 20% of the population etc.

So that means that depending on country, the IMF data for that particular country can be heavily manipulated by it's government?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

For developing countries with 'underground' economy,

For developing countries GDP figures will be way off the mark? On my last visit to Pakistan the country visibly felt more prosperous than the GDP figures that WB cites. I am pretty sure in my native village all economic activity was unregistered. This also applies to large areas of Pakistan. This below is pickups smuggling Iranian oil into Pakistan pictured in Balochistan.

This is the poorest province of Pakistan but just look at number of pick ups.

" These pick-up vehicles are manufactured by Zamyad Co. in Tehran. These are non-custom paid vehicles. As they are unregistered, there is no official count of their numbers. There are roughly thousands of Zamyad vehicles in Balochistan, each costing lakhs. An old Zamyad can be bought for around 200,000 rupees; for a new one, the price can go up to more than a million. These vehicles are solely used for oil and diesel smuggling in Balochistan, and loaded with blue barrels in the back, they can be easily spotted across the province. "

"All these vehicles belong to one arbab (the owner of the vehicles) who is based in Dalbandin and has more than 20 vehicles. The arbab are Baloch on both sides of the Pak-Iran border who are in direct contact with each other. When the Pakistani arbab receives an order through his Iranian counterpart, he sends his Zamyads to the border. The Pakistani arbab can make around 40,000 rupees off one truckful of oil or diesel."

Thousands of young men are involved in this racket. They make a living. Own vehicles, buy products, eat food, build houses etc but all this economic activity is NOT recorded.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

For developing countries GDP figures will be way off the mark? On my last visit to Pakistan the country visibly felt more prosperous than the GDP figures that WB cites. I am pretty sure in my native village all economic activity was unregistered. This also applies to large areas of Pakistan. This below is pickups smuggling Iranian oil into Pakistan pictured in Balochistan.

View attachment 715934

This is the poorest province of Pakistan but just look at number of pick ups.


View attachment 715936

" These pick-up vehicles are manufactured by Zamyad Co. in Tehran. These are non-custom paid vehicles. As they are unregistered, there is no official count of their numbers. There are roughly thousands of Zamyad vehicles in Balochistan, each costing lakhs. An old Zamyad can be bought for around 200,000 rupees; for a new one, the price can go up to more than a million. These vehicles are solely used for oil and diesel smuggling in Balochistan, and loaded with blue barrels in the back, they can be easily spotted across the province. "

"All these vehicles belong to one arbab (the owner of the vehicles) who is based in Dalbandin and has more than 20 vehicles. The arbab are Baloch on both sides of the Pak-Iran border who are in direct contact with each other. When the Pakistani arbab receives an order through his Iranian counterpart, he sends his Zamyads to the border. The Pakistani arbab can make around 40,000 rupees off one truckful of oil or diesel."

Thousands of young men are involved in this racket. They make a living. Own vehicles, buy products, eat food, build houses etc but all this economic activity is NOT recorded.

Thing is there is NO Universal standard that all countries follow in providing their economic data to the IMF. Even if there was, how would you ensure that EVERY country is not falsifying or manipulating their data anyway? So the IMF economic data can potentially be VERY UNRELIABLE in giving a TRUE economic picture of any country. A country may claim that their GDP per capita is $10,000 yet their living standard is WAYYYYYY below another country who claims to have a GDP per capita of $10,000.

Apparently, it is very easy for a country to provide falsified data to the IMF, here is a Phd thesis on this very subject:

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00482106v3/document

Everything claimed in the above thesis has been cross-referenced with supporting evidence.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

We always get these GDP per capita etc touted for countries but can anybody explain exactly how, for instance in a country like Pakistan is GDP calculated? I mean does a bloke go to every district of Pakistan and collate the economic activity? For instance did some dude go around in my native village in Pakistan and tabulate the economic productivity of the local barber, taxi driverm shop, farmer, butcher etc etc???

GDP is a bird's eye view, but it doesn't break out finer details about economic wellbeing. You'd have to look at many different indexes and measurements, like HDI, Gini Coefficient, etc. If you look across the board, Pak is not in a good position, though I don't think it's as bad as just GDP per capita would suggest.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

GDP is a bird's eye view, but it doesn't break out finer details about economic wellbeing. You'd have to look at many different indexes and measurements, like HDI, Gini Coefficient, etc. If you look across the board, Pak is not in a good position, though I don't think it's as bad as just GDP per capita would suggest.

All of which has been proven to be easy to manipulate:


https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00482106v3/document


Everything claimed in the above has been cross-referenced with supporting evidence.

 

[Indos]

There should be census

Economic Census shows businesses still concentrated in Java ​

Stefani Ribka
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta / Fri, April 28, 2017 / 07:45 am

Central Statistics Agency (BPS) head Suhariyanto (center) speaks to journalists at a press briefing at his office in Jakarta. (JP/Prima Wirayani)



Results of the Economic Census 2016 show that most businesses are still concentrated in Java Island, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Thursday. About 60.74 percent of 26.71 million businesses are located in Java, 18.61 percent in Sumatra, 8.09 percent in Sulawesi, 5.68 percent in Bali and Nusa Tenggara, 5.16 percent in Kalimantan and 1.72 percent in Maluku and Papua.

“It is up to us to develop eastern Indonesia,” BPS head Kecuk Suhariyanto said during his opening for the reading of the census. Conducted every decade, the Economic Census surveys businesses of all sizes, except those in the agriculture sector.

The number of companies it covers has increased by 17.51 percent to 26.71 million in May 2016 from 22.73 million in 2006. Retail and wholesale trade, as well as car and motorcycle reparation and maintenance services dominated the census, with 46.17 percent, or roughly 12.3 million, of all business units surveyed. Accommodation and/or food and beverage providers made up 16.27 percent of the survey, and manufacturing took up 16.53 percent.

The remaining 12 sectors consisted of businesses in construction, mining, water management, transportation and warehouses, information and communication, finance and insurance, real estate, corporate services, and health and social activities. (bbn)

Economic Census shows businesses still concentrated in Java

Results of the Economic Census 2016 show that most businesses are still concentrated in Java Island, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Thursday

www.thejakartapost.com