How can CPEC be a Game Changer for Pakistan?

[Goenitz]

Do you know what freights costs are by land compared to sea? 95% of Chinese industrial centres are located on the Chinese seaboard 3,000 miles east of Pak/China border. Then there is 1,000 miles of the CPEC route to Gwadar. By the time the product is exported from Gwadar it would cost more then gold.

Really excuse me.
I meant Chinese plants, industry in Pakistan and their export, while we are focusing on modern agriculture processes and their export. Otherwise transportation between west and east China costs too much.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

How can CPEC be a Game Changer for Pakistan?

In conversation with Mr. Khalid Mansoor, Special Assistant for Prime Minister for CPEC, this episode discusses the significance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects for growth and economic prosperity of Pakistan. What exactly the CPEC is? What are the three phases of CPEC all about? Is common perception about CPEC being another East India Company or a debt trap true? What kind of loans, grants and aid projects China is doing in Pakistan under CPEC? What are the renewable energy options for power generations in Pakistan? How Pakistan’s carbon foot print is comparatively better than the other countries? How many environmentally friendly power projects does Pakistan have? There are issues with circular debt and capacity payments in wake of increased installed capacity; does government has any plans to fix the issues of transmission and distribution in phase 2 and 3 of CPEC? How is government deal with the issue of circular debt? Are we taking full benefit of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) being developed under CPEC or are there some implementation issues at that end? Where is Pakistan now in terms of increasing skill set of youth through vocational training under CPEC projects? How is CPEC going to geographically integrate Pakistan in broader regions? How do you CPEC maneuvering in global geopolitics?

00:00 Introduction
01:05 What is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?
07:10 Phases of CPEC
12:10 CPEC: Another East India Company or A debt trap?
18:00 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) coming under CPEC
19:26 Coal or Renewable energy options for power generation in Pakistan
26:38 Pakistan’s low carbon foot print and environmentally friendly power projects
28:45 Power capacity payments and circular debt
36:29 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC and Industrial
Revolution
45:40 Vocational training institutes
50:50 Geographical integration and regional connectivity
55:15 CPEC in the light of global politics
01:00:12 Outro

@ghazi52 @araz @The Eagle @The Accountant @That Guy @Irfan Baloch @PanzerKiel @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Imran Khan @PAKISTANFOREVER @waz @Windjammer @WinterFangs @KaiserX @niaz @farok84 @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @MastanKhan @krash @FOOLS_NIGHTMARE @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Cookie Monster @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Rafael @Rafi @Trango Towers @TNT @Indus Pakistan @Falcon26 @Norwegian @LeGenD @Iltutmish @notorious_eagle @Akh1112 @mingle @Dazzler @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @Tipu7 @Horus @Ark_Angel @SQ8 @Goenitz @messiach @TaimiKhan @SecularNationalist @farok84 @Blacklight @Meengla @Ahmet Pasha @White and Green with M/S

Projects like CPEC will take at least 15 years to start showing positive outcomes. It's not something that will show fruition in the short term. We have to be patient and show the resilience to see it through.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Really excuse me.
I meant Chinese plants, industry in Pakistan and their export, while we are focusing on modern agriculture processes and their export. Otherwise transportation between west and east China costs too much.

The main goal of CPEC is never really about transporting China export through Pakistan. It is simply impossible to move that much volume, we are talking about gigantic volume, through the mountainous road. The only goal is to develop Pakistani economy, as part of grand BRI initiative.

In my humble view, the fundamental idea of CPEC and BRI in general is that China needs to diversify its trading relationship by actively developing economies of friendly developing countries eg Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan and other developing countries can be more capable of trading with China and enabling China building a more diversified and robust trading portfolio. In a more plain term, China doesn't want all the trade coming from Europe or US, it wants a sizable portion of ttade to be done with its friends. To be able to achieve this even in a moderate success, Pakistani economy needs to expand 5-10 times as of today. It will take a while but it is achievable.

 

[MH.Yang]

Do you know what freights costs are by land compared to sea? 95% of Chinese industrial centres are located on the Chinese seaboard 3,000 miles east of Pak/China border. Then there is 1,000 miles of the CPEC route to Gwadar. By the time the product is exported from Gwadar it would cost more then gold.

The basic freight of China Railway is 10.2CNY/t, and the additional cost per kilometer is 0.0491CNY/t. The distance from Horgos(CPEC port city) to Beijing is 2987km. In other words, the freight per ton from Horgos to Beijing is 156.86CNY(US $24.5).
So China's domestic logistics costs are very low, much lower than shipping.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

If you were on this forum back in 2015/16 you will know I was a big proponent of CPEC and did indeed consider it a 'game changer' but I did say I had concerns, actually just two concerns.

I never doubted CPEC's potential for overhauling Pakistan's infra, power gen, power lines, railways etc that might be called the hardware component of CPEC. I did however worry that CPEC would fail to overhaul Pakistan's cultural outlook and configure it for the modern trading world, call this overhauling the countries 'software'. This concern has come true. CPEC and the Chinese have struggled if even failed to bring about a change in the outlook of the people. TLP and others are as strong as aware. This type of culture militates against a country integrating into world trading system - something Banglasdesh and India have done so successfully.

To put it bluntly Pakistan is configured as a religious state and pretence as guardian of Islam rather then a trading nation like China, Singapore, in South Asia increasingly Bangla/India.

Medina Riyasat might be a great model but it certainly is not a model that will pull in global multi-nationals. Instead it will encourage TLP types and this is exactly what will keep happening.

The bizzare thing is the real Medina riyasat - AKA Saudia Arabia is slowly moving to a modern trading country that is integrated with the global trading order.

I understand your point about the "software" part but I remain very optimistic about it. For I think, with my limited view of Pakistan, there is a significant portion of the society that wants to bring material change to themselves, their families and society in general. All they need is work or business opportunity, which will be bought over with the hardware part. After they found success, they will be the leading force that pulls he whole society into the right track of development. This is human nature to be materially well-off and I see no less in Pakistan people.

 

[Indos]

The power plant project is good, but the road that connect Pakistan into China is something that is not really business minded to be developed. It is in the less populated areas of Pakistan and China. Like in Indonesia, our main industry is located in Java and Sumatra, most populated island.

Dont target export first, target our own people ( import substitution). For export, better use Karachi port or make one near it like in Indonesia we make another port near our biggest port, the toll road high way then built to connect the port into the industry without the need to enter Jakarta road.

New Priok Port, North Jakarta

 

[The Maverick]

on paper it looked good but the reality is that putting all eggs in one basket has,left you at China Mercy.

you lost usa and the west thanks to bedding with only China

no one else is investing serious money in your country now and China is loaning you money and charging billions in interest

mmm not sure this is too clever

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

on paper it looked good but the reality is that putting all eggs in one basket has,left you at China Mercy.

you lost usa and the west thanks to bedding with only China

no one else is investing serious money in your country now and China is loaning you money and charging billions in interest

mmm not sure this is too clever

So now those who call for the death and destruction of the Pakistani people and nation are all of a sudden concerned about CPEC and it's effect on Pakistan............... .............yet you show no care or concern of the 4 million indians who died recently from coronavirus........ :

Redirect Notice

 

[Goenitz]

The main goal of CPEC is never really about transporting China export through Pakistan. It is simply impossible to move that much volume, we are talking about gigantic volume, through the mountainous road. The only goal is to develop Pakistani economy, as part of grand BRI initiative.

In my humble view, the fundamental idea of CPEC and BRI in general is that China needs to diversify its trading relationship by actively developing economies of friendly developing countries eg Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan and other developing countries can be more capable of trading with China and enabling China building a more diversified and robust trading portfolio. In a more plain term, China doesn't want all the trade coming from Europe or US, it wants a sizable portion of ttade to be done with its friends. To be able to achieve this even in a moderate success, Pakistani economy needs to expand 5-10 times as of today. It will take a while but it is achievable.

I didn't mean that we need to transport huge volumes of freight between Kashgar and Giligit. I meant that Chinese companies in Pakistan producing goods and sending cheaply to Africa, Gulf and possibly to India. The infrastructure of high speed railway (in development) in Pakistan is only useful if companies are sending goods through it. So instead of manufacturing at eastern coast of China, manufacturing occurs at south Pakistan, then exporting directly from Gawadar, Pasni and Karachi.

The workforce can include both Chinese and Pakistanis, so that some additional money goes back to China besides company profits. Then Businesses canters and Chinese banks can open up to support Chinese investors.

Then I argued that Pakistan forte is agriculture. Pak needs to adopt some Chinese practices to increase yield. Those products (grains, lentils, etc) can be exported to Gulf, EU, etc. Pakistanis shold focus on agricultural products and Chinese can on finish products (jams, squash, cereals, bars, oil, etc) as we can't beat Chinese's workers skills, ethics and work commitment, but we can slowly follow.

@MH.Yang
I bet internal transportation is subsidized heavily.

 

[MH.Yang]

The power plant project is good, but the road that connect Pakistan into China is something that is not really business minded to be developed. It is in the less populated areas of Pakistan and China. Like in Indonesia, our main industry is located in Java and Sumatra, most populated island.

Dont target export first, target our own people ( import substitution). For export, better use Karachi port or make one near it like in Indonesia we make another port near our biggest port, the toll road high way then built to connect the port into the industry without the need to enter Jakarta road.

New Priok Port, North Jakarta

According to reply 19#, shipping has no advantage.

 

[MH.Yang]

I didn't mean that we need to transport huge volumes of freight between Kashgar and Giligit. I meant that Chinese companies in Pakistan producing goods and sending cheaply to Africa, Gulf and possibly to India. The infrastructure of high speed railway (in development) in Pakistan is only useful if companies are sending goods through it. So instead of manufacturing at eastern coast of China, manufacturing occurs at south Pakistan, then exporting directly from Gawadar, Pasni and Karachi.

The workforce can include both Chinese and Pakistanis, so that some additional money goes back to China besides company profits. Then Businesses canters and Chinese banks can open up to support Chinese investors.

Then I argued that Pakistan forte is agriculture. Pak needs to adopt some Chinese practices to increase yield. Those products (grains, lentils, etc) can be exported to Gulf, EU, etc. Pakistanis shold focus on agricultural products and Chinese can on finish products (jams, squash, cereals, bars, oil, etc) as we can't beat Chinese's workers skills, ethics and work commitment, but we can slowly follow.

@MH.Yang
I bet internal transportation is subsidized heavily.

China's state-owned enterprises are different from those in the Soviet Union. There is no internal price between China's state-owned enterprises, only fierce competition.

 

[alee92nawaz]

How can CPEC be a Game Changer for Pakistan?

In conversation with Mr. Khalid Mansoor, Special Assistant for Prime Minister for CPEC, this episode discusses the significance of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects for growth and economic prosperity of Pakistan. What exactly the CPEC is? What are the three phases of CPEC all about? Is common perception about CPEC being another East India Company or a debt trap true? What kind of loans, grants and aid projects China is doing in Pakistan under CPEC? What are the renewable energy options for power generations in Pakistan? How Pakistan’s carbon foot print is comparatively better than the other countries? How many environmentally friendly power projects does Pakistan have? There are issues with circular debt and capacity payments in wake of increased installed capacity; does government has any plans to fix the issues of transmission and distribution in phase 2 and 3 of CPEC? How is government deal with the issue of circular debt? Are we taking full benefit of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) being developed under CPEC or are there some implementation issues at that end? Where is Pakistan now in terms of increasing skill set of youth through vocational training under CPEC projects? How is CPEC going to geographically integrate Pakistan in broader regions? How do you CPEC maneuvering in global geopolitics?

00:00 Introduction
01:05 What is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?
07:10 Phases of CPEC
12:10 CPEC: Another East India Company or A debt trap?
18:00 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) coming under CPEC
19:26 Coal or Renewable energy options for power generation in Pakistan
26:38 Pakistan’s low carbon foot print and environmentally friendly power projects
28:45 Power capacity payments and circular debt
36:29 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC and Industrial
Revolution
45:40 Vocational training institutes
50:50 Geographical integration and regional connectivity
55:15 CPEC in the light of global politics
01:00:12 Outro

@ghazi52 @araz @The Eagle @The Accountant @That Guy @Irfan Baloch @PanzerKiel @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Imran Khan @PAKISTANFOREVER @waz @Windjammer @WinterFangs @KaiserX @niaz @farok84 @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @MastanKhan @krash @FOOLS_NIGHTMARE @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Cookie Monster @Bratva @Foxtrot Alpha @Rafael @Rafi @Trango Towers @TNT @Indus Pakistan @Falcon26 @Norwegian @LeGenD @Iltutmish @notorious_eagle @Akh1112 @mingle @Dazzler @AZADPAKISTAN2009 @Tipu7 @Horus @Ark_Angel @SQ8 @Goenitz @messiach @TaimiKhan @SecularNationalist @farok84 @Blacklight @Meengla @Ahmet Pasha @White and Green with M/S

When are we going to see any results?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

When are we going to see any results?

It won't just take a few years. It will provably take a few decades. Give it at least 15 years first.

 

[MH.Yang]

When are we going to see any results?

China began industrialization and agricultural modernization in 1978, and its economy began to grow rapidly in 1995. Among them, the exchange rate of CNY against the US dollar fell from 1.57 in 1978 to 8.62 in 1994. It took China 17 years and a 549% currency devaluation to lay the foundation for rapid industrial development, and Pakistan has just begun.


In 2019, Pakistan's per capita GDP was USD 1284. The world's per capita GDP is USD 11400, and Pakistan accounts for 11.3% of the standard. In 1995, China's per capita income was US $609 and the world's per capita GDP was US $5418. China accounted for 11.2% of the standard. Excluding global inflation, Pakistan's current economic situation is actually about the same as that of China in 1995. According to China's economic development history, I think that Pakistan's economic situation and industrial capacity should be greatly improved after 14 years(2035).

 

[ghazi52]

Agriculture should be given priority and the road networks developed will help a lot.