How 5 Countries could become 14

[Audio]

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meanwhile, in the real world........

-ISIS captures biggest Iraqi refinery.
it's controlled territory already looks somewhat like on the map you labeled as failure. All they need is some desert now to make it complete. Similarly Kurdistan is almost and independent country as of late, issuing oil contracts bypassing central government in Iraq, flying Kurdish flag instead of Iraqi whenever there's a chance.
-Shiite cleric issues threats to all Kurds.
-Kurds made deal with former Baathists. When IA ran away, they simply seized territory, but there's no real fighting with ISIS, they all know where future borders will be.

 

[user1]

meanwhile, in the real world........

-ISIS captures biggest Iraqi refinery.
it's controlled territory already looks somewhat like on the map you labeled as failure. All they need is some desert now to make it complete. Similarly Kurdistan is almost and independent country as of late, issuing oil contracts bypassing central government in Iraq, flying Kurdish flag instead of Iraqi whenever there's a chance.
-Shiite cleric issues threats to all Kurds.
-Kurds made deal with former Baathists. When IA ran away, they simply seized territory, but there's no real fighting with ISIS, they all know where future borders will be.

About 1000 ISIS fighters attacked Mosul which was defended by 30,000 strong Iraqi Army. They turned their tails and fled. There was hardly any resistance. Reason: Current Iraqi Army is all trained and established by US Army. They have placed their puppets in commanding positions. They do what they are told to do.

They were told to flee, so, they did. Same is not true for the capital, Nuri-al-Maliki who himself is a Shia, can clearly see an extremist Sunni? army marching towards him. He will definitely try to employ - and that is questionable - his most loyal forces who will be Shia.

Also, when the ISIS reaches the Shia Strongholds, there will be strong resistance, plus Ayatollah Sistani has issued a fatwa to the Shia to arm themselves.

This ISIS may just be a ploy to get US bases back in Iraq.

If you are pointing at what's next? i.e. Iran or Pakistan - you are only delusional. Iraqi army was fragmented with no internal support using technologies from 70s when 'Operation Desert Storm' occured.

Iranians are united as a nation - and they have an assertive Russia backing them.
Pakistanis are united as a nation - and they have an all weather friend (China) backing them, not to forget the Nukes.

As for breaking-up Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the staunchest (and most black-mailed) ally of USA, is strictly against any re-defining of the borders. It knows that if any Middle Eastern country is allowed to Balkanise, Saudi Arabia can be next.

Did you forget, just a few months ago, Americans were only days away from attacking Syria; then Putin happened. He can happen again and again. Things are not going to be easy for the Empire.

 

[mohsinkid]

i have a question: is this so band isis the weap0n of mass destruction that colinp owell once talkk about in invason speech?

 

[Thoryalai Zazai]

This ISIS may just be a ploy to get US bases back in Iraq.

Why place the blame on the US, when Maliki has done everything in his ower to enflame the Sunis rather than to accomodate them? When the American forces were still present, they made a concrete effort to turn Sunis against the Al Qaeda and helped assimilate them into the Iraq government. Maliki simply disarmed them and kicked them out.

Do you seriously believe that the Americans would compromise their vocal support for a Democracy in Iraq by replacing one tyrant with another? Get real, for the fault clearly rests with the stupid Iraqi government.

 

[Audio]

About 1000 ISIS fighters attacked Mosul which was defended by 30,000 strong Iraqi Army. They turned their tails and fled. There was hardly any resistance. Reason: Current Iraqi Army is all trained and established by US Army. They have placed their puppets in commanding positions. They do what they are told to do.
They were told to flee, so, they did. Same is not true for the capital, Nuri-al-Maliki who himself is a Shia, can clearly see an extremist Sunni? army marching towards him. He will definitely try to employ - and that is questionable - his most loyal forces who will be Shia.

Their leading cadre we're all Sunnis, and when those defected, the command structure collapsed.
I call bollocks on 1000 fighters. You can't control an area that size and fight government forces at multiple locations with 1000 men. This is a ludicrous proposition.

Also, when the ISIS reaches the Shia Strongholds, there will be strong resistance, plus Ayatollah Sistani has issued a fatwa to the Shia to arm themselves.

Ya, i never said there won't be. Through my post it is even implied Shia's will never be driven out of southeastern and eastern Iraq

This ISIS may just be a ploy to get US bases back in Iraq.

They hardly need bases in Iraq, they have bases all around the region.

If you are pointing at what's next? i.e. Iran or Pakistan - you are only delusional. Iraqi army was fragmented with no internal support using technologies from 70s when 'Operation Desert Storm' occured.

What has operation Desert Storm have to do with anything?
And no, in my post to you i wasn't implying anything in regards to Pakistan or Iran. I was implying Kurds already made a deal with ISIS, because this is what suits them best.
Namely, if the central government in Baghdad is weak or powerless, it cannot whine about the oil Kurdistan exports on its own accord to it's own customers.

Iranians are united as a nation - and they have an assertive Russia backing them.
Pakistanis are united as a nation - and they have an all weather friend (China) backing them, not to forget the Nukes.

This is laughable. The enemy won't be the kind you will be able to point nukes at. They are already in the system. But + points for patriotism.
Assertive Russia, you mean the one who denied sale of S-300 a few years ago, and who loves the current state of embargo on Iran because it helps keep prices artificially high propping up their outdated economy?

As for breaking-up Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the staunchest (and most black-mailed) ally of USA, is strictly against any re-defining of the borders. It knows that if any Middle Eastern country is allowed to Balkanise, Saudi Arabia can be next.

lol, note how you contradict yourself in this paragraph and the one below. Here you say Americans are against the redrawing of any borders, but down below you imply they will bomb a despot down from his throne, which can only bring partition of Syria and consequentially, a redrawing of maps along ethnic/sectarian lines.

Did you forget, just a few months ago, Americans were only days away from attacking Syria; then Putin happened. He can happen again and again. Things are not going to be easy for the Empire.

No, the US Congress happened, and European allies happened, denying support for air strikes.
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Writing in bold doesn't make statements any more true. It only makes you look silly, when you bold such naive stuff.
But i know, mix of patriotism, blind hope and not being educated on at least basics of geopolitics.....and we have what we have, you saying the leaked map failed on all accounts, when there's already two entities alive from that very same Pentagon map (Sunni Iraq and Kurdistan) on today's real world map.

 

[user1]

Their leading cadre we're all Sunnis, and when those defected, the command structure collapsed.
I call bollocks on 1000 fighters. You can't control an area that size and fight government forces at multiple locations with 1000 men. This is a ludicrous proposition.




Ya, i never said there won't be. Through my post it is even implied Shia's will never be driven out of southeastern and eastern Iraq



They hardly need bases in Iraq, they have bases all around the region.



What has operation Desert Storm have to do with anything?
And no, in my post to you i wasn't implying anything in regards to Pakistan or Iran. I was implying Kurds already made a deal with ISIS, because this is what suits them best.
Namely, if the central government in Baghdad is weak or powerless, it cannot whine about the oil Kurdistan exports on its own accord to it's own customers.



This is laughable. The enemy won't be the kind you will be able to point nukes at. They are already in the system. But + points for patriotism.
Assertive Russia, you mean the one who denied sale of S-300 a few years ago, and who loves the current state of embargo on Iran because it helps keep prices artificially high propping up their outdated economy?



lol, note how you contradict yourself in this paragraph and the one below. Here you say Americans are against the redrawing of any borders, but down below you imply they will bomb a despot down from his throne, which can only bring partition of Syria and consequentially, a redrawing of maps along ethnic/sectarian lines.



No, the US Congress happened, and European allies happened, denying support for air strikes.
------------------------------

Writing in bold doesn't make statements any more true. It only makes you look silly, when you bold such naive stuff.
But i know, mix of patriotism, blind hope and not being educated on at least basics of geopolitics.....and we have what we have, you saying the leaked map failed on all accounts, when there's already two entities alive from that very same Pentagon map (Sunni Iraq and Kurdistan) on today's real world map.

Link for 1000 ISIS rebels:

The Engineered Destruction and Political Fragmentation of Iraq. Towards the Creation of a US Sponsored Islamist Caliphate | Global Research

Why Iraq? According to Book 'American Theocracy' by Kevin Phillips, as of 2006 there were only 2300 wells drilled, compare that with 1 Million wells in Texas. There were 80 oilfields discovered, only 21 developed. No cutting edge technology used so far in exploration. Estimated 200 bbl still undiscovered, i.e. almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia. That's the reason why Baghdad has World's largest US embassy.

A status quo has been established between Kurdistan and Central Shia govt. for some time; Kurdistan behaves like an independent territory, but is happy to stay a part of Iraq. Unfortunately, I do not have the link.

Russia does have a reason to support Iran, the one that you have given that Russia loves the current state of embargo on Iran because it helps keep prices artificially high. I am saying the same thing.

I never said, USA is against re-defining borders; where was it? please show me! Read the post again carefully.

 

[Audio]

Read the post again carefully.

lol. okay.
I'm sure that's the only thing missing for me to understand your , very elaborate, source supported views. And if that's not good enough, i can always rely on you bolding bits for me to understand.

Kurdistan behaves like an independent territory, but is happy to stay a part of Iraq. Unfortunately, I do not have the link.

"Time of self-determination has come for the Kurds in Iraq. 90% of the Kurds will say yes to independence. Iraq has been openly divided and Maliki must leave his position," said Masoud Barzani, President of Kurdistan Region, to Christiane Amanpour on CNN yesterday.

EXCLUSIVE: Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani says 'the time is here' for self-determination – Amanpour - CNN.com Blogs

Kurdish endgame is an independant state. Now is the perfect time, best in centuries if not the last thousand years probably. Only a fool would not take it, especially if it's sugar coated with oil wells and no obligation to southern "Iraqi's", which won't be able to object because they will be (they already are!) in the midst of an insurgency.

Russia does have a reason to support Iran

No, it doesn't. If Russia does anything to support Iran, it will find a path to international oil markets even faster than at it's present pace. Thus, more competition, and lower prices.

I never said, USA is against re-defining borders; where was it?

Ya, you didn't. But it was implied with the comment that Saudis don't want partitions. I think this is a wrong conclusion, as Saudis would very much like to see a fragmented Iraq, as that means a weaker Iran and weaker Assad.

 

[Juice]

I wouldn't be surprised if this happened with Iraq beginning at first.

More and more it is looking like the only real solution. how can it ever be a united country after this?

I think US and EU should be worried about their own as they are breaking a part.....

Lol....Nice try....I live in the US....spending time between Texas and Colorado now. Lived in Florida, Texas, Missouri, Virginia, California, Washington state...many other places. So, genius....which part is splintering? Where do you live? Some real evidence? We are not some tribal old-world place. Our paradigm is completely different. The only two who are even close are Canada and Australia. Even the Latin American nations are different. (Mainly Native-Spanish mix and culture).

 

[jupiter2007]

Impossible....all people have their own interests and national aspirations that need to be respected. You cannot ignore all that and pretend a "unity" can be had which can only be imposed through Tyranny, hence running contrary to the Quran's teachings. If enough people hold your view, then the misjudged notion of "Dar al-Harb" (land of war) will remain the abode of "Muslims" for centuries to come. The Caliphate was destroyed as it became too big to manage, too corrupt to respect, too illiberal to be creative and too unproductive to compete. Given this, it was not difficult for colonial powers such as the French and British to inspire rebellions or non-compliance among Muslims against their rulers across the Muslim world.


As a case in point, one of the last thrusts towards a united Caliphate that sought to stretch from Afghanistan to Turkey came from a Turko-Iranian leader in Nadir Quli Beg of Afshar. Backed by a large military contingent of Afghans, with Ahmed Shah Abdali as his appointed treasurer, they essentially sought to create their own greater empire together. However, to appease the predominantly Suni Muslim Afghans, Nadir converted away from his Shia faith. The predominantly Shia Iranians however didn't take too kindly to it and had him assassinated, hence the end of his reign and the beginning of the breakaway Durrani empire which also gradually crumbled over more than two centuries for the same reasons.



The future of Islam belongs to a free people and free nations that inspire others the world over, rather than repel them from the very sight of us. How can we blame them when they see how brutal we are towards one another and our own people, irrespective of the polemics we direct at them? We are our own worst enemies. Just before his brutal death, Muamar Gaddafi once lamented at the OIC about how all Muslim states pretend to be one, when in truth they all view one another with extreme suspicion and prejudice.

How ironic? You are claiming to be from Afghanistan which has so many different ethnic groups and religious/sects. Shouldn't Afghanistan be divided into 5 countries?

 

[Thoryalai Zazai]

How ironic? You are claiming to be from Afghanistan which has so many different ethnic groups and religious/sects. Shouldn't Afghanistan be divided into 5 countries?

Afghans indeed have different ethnecities, all of which share a common history and a common Central Asian heritage. Afghanistan was made by Afghans, with our current borders reduced to their current form by foreign enemies. I can not say the same for Iraqis and others.

 

[jupiter2007]

Afghans indeed have different ethnecities, all of which share a common history and a common Central Asian heritage. Afghanistan was made by Afghans, with our current borders reduced to their current form by foreign enemies. I can not say the same for Iraqis and others.

ME pretty much has the same culture and language. They were divided by British. Just look at the map of ME from 150 years ago.