History of how China won the Star Wars

[ChinaToday]

Quietly and efficiently, China is working towards catching up with the US in the exploration of the final frontier — space. Of course, as things stand now, China would need to cover much ground before it matches and outperforms US in the race for space. But there is no denying the fact that China, the world’s second largest economy, has resources, competence and a clear cut political commitment to surge ahead as a global space power.

Technology management consulting firm Futron Corporation’s Space Competitiveness Index reveals that the Asian Communist giant matched America’s number of launches during 2010 for the first time. As it is, the conclusion of Futron Corp’s analysis is that the US is fast losing ground to global competitors as its space policy continues to be vulnerable to political compulsions compounded by economic recession.

Indeed, after space shuttle Atlantis made its final touchdown at the Kennedy Space Centre for the last time in July, the US has been left without a manned space vehicle for the first time in five decades. And with the budgetary support to the Chinese space programme continuing to be steady and robust, it stands to reason that China would join the ranks of the advanced space-faring nations.

Western space analysts believe that China’s impressive strides in space is, in a way, a reflection of the country’s rapid military modernisation on ground, sea and air. ‘Over the past decade, China has arguably gone further, faster than any other space faring nations,’ says Futron Corporation.

In the US, space enthusiasts rue the fact that the Obama administration’s failure to support the Constellation Program has left the field wide open for China to forge ahead with manned conquest of space.

In keeping with its grand strategy of staying ahead in space, China has already hinted at sending a manned expedition to earth’s nearest celestial neighbour in the none too distant future. ‘The moon is an obvious target for China and they would be there by 2020,’ observes Ken Pounds, professor, space science, Leicester University. Clearly, neither the Europeans nor the Russians have evinced interest in sending a manned mission to the moon. China, which has already sent an orbiter around the moon, is planning to launch a robotic probe to the moon sometime next year.

Further into the future, China has a plan up its sleeve to realise a sample return mission to the moon. China has also spoken of setting up a human base on the moon and work towards mining lunar resources including Helium-3, an abundant and eco-friendly energy source.

Significantly, in 2003 China became the third country — after USA and Russia — to send an astronaut into space. In 2005, China repeated this feat by launching two astronauts into orbit onboard its Shenzhou spaceship. China stunned the world when in 2008 it successfully performed a space walking feat. The successful completion of the human space flight and space walking exercise have given impetus to the Chinese plan to build and launch an orbital complex. An orbital complex, besides helping China undertake cutting edge research, could also serve as a strategic platform in space to bolster its space war efforts.

As pointed out by Ashley Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, space has come to acquire a privileged position in China’s military thinking. Tellis says China sees space as a vital platform to effectively use its armed forces against adversaries.

In 2007, China stunned the world by successfully destroying is aging weather watch satellite, located 537 miles above the earth by making use of a ground-based medium range ballistic missile.

This shocking development provided unflinching evidence of China’s efforts to perfect anti-satellite devices. China is also known to be experimenting with laser devices to realise space-based weapons.

Confirming its growing prowess in space, China on September 29 successfully launched its Tiangong-1 (Heavenly Palace) space laboratory module as a stepping stone to its ambitious plan of eventually setting up a permanent orbiting complex in space in 2020.

Tiangong-1 would serve as a platform for validating rendezvous and docking procedures, and its test will come several weeks into the mission when it would dock with Shenzhou-8 spacecraft.

‘Tiangong-1 is primarily a technology test bed. It is not going to immediately provide China any military capabilities,’ says Joan Johnson Fresse, an expert on the Chinese space programme at the US Navy War College on Rhode Island. All said and done, this space accomplishment is expected to bring Bejing closer to Moscow and Washington with a long-term manned outpost in space.

The author specialises in defence and aerospace issues


History of how China won the Star Wars - Analysis - DNA

 

[anon45]

I guess ill take this chance to post some news about the dismal future of the US in space


SpaceX Unveils Plan for World's First Fully Reusable Rocket | SpaceX & Private Spaceflight | Reusable Launch Vehicles & Mars Colonization | Space.com

The private spaceflight firm SpaceX will try to build the world's first completely reusable rocket and spaceship, a space travel method that could open the gates of Mars for humanity, the company's milionaire CEO Elon Musk announced Thursday (Sept. 29).

A fully reusable rocket would dramatically decrease the cost of lofting cargo and humans to space, making the exploration and colonization of other worlds such as Mars more feasible, Musk said in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.
Musk did not guarantee success, acknowledging the daunting task his SpaceX team has taken on. SpaceX released a video animation of its proposed reusable rocket and space capsule system to illustrate how it would work. "We will see if this works," Musk said. "And if it does work, it'll be pretty huge."

The hunt for an economic and reusable method for space travel has been a goal of many companies and government agencies from the Space Age's inception.

The only reusable manned spaceships built to date have been NASA's winged space shuttles, which were retired this year. The shuttles used reusable orbiters and solid rocket boosters for 30 years, but the system was not completely reusable.

Each of NASA's 135 shuttle missions also used a disposable 15-story external fuel tank. The tank was jettisoned once a shuttle reached orbit and ultimately burned up during re-entry.



Going to Mars?

Musk has said repeatedly over the years that he founded SpaceX in 2002 with the primary goal of helping humanity establish a lasting presence beyond Earth. Such expansion is necessary to ensure our species' survival, according to Musk, since a catastrophic asteroid strike or other calamity could one day wipe out life on our home planet.

Mars is a prime candidate for human settlement, and Musk has said he hopes SpaceX can send astronauts to the Red Planet within 10 or 20 years.

Colonizing Mars — or any other world — would require ferrying thousands of people and millions of tons of cargo through space. That's just not feasible with today's launch costs, Musk has said.

But a fully reusable rocket could change the equation dramatically. Musk illustrated the point by citing SpaceX's Falcon 9, which costs between $50 million to $60 million per launch in its current configuration.

"But the cost of the fuel and oxygen and so forth is only about $200,000," Musk said."So obviously, if we can reuse the rocket, say, a thousand times, then that would make the capital cost of the rocket for launch only about $50,000." [Vote Now! Best Spaceships of All Time]




A heat shield protects the second stage of SpaceX's planned fully reusable rocket during its re-entry through Earth's atmosphere in this still from a SpaceX video. The second stage rocket, like SpaceX's first stage, would make a vertical landing at its launch site.
CREDIT: SpaceX
View full size imageHow it would work

In its video new animation, SpaceX officials detail how their new launch vehicle, which is based on the Falcon 9 rocket, would work.

After separating in orbit, the two stages of the rocket would come back to Earth and land at the launch pad. The stages would not glide back using wings like the space shuttle; rather, they'd descend vertically, eventually settling down on four legs.

They could then be refueled, reintegrated and relaunched.

In the video, the Falcon 9 launches SpaceX's Dragon capsule to the International Space Station. NASA has contracted the company to make cargo flights to the orbiting lab.

Falcon 9 lofted Dragon to Earth orbit for the first time last December, and SpaceX had been planning to launch a demonstration mission docking Dragon to the station in January 2012. SpaceX officials announced late today (Sept. 30) that the firm could be ready to launch the next Dragon test flight by Dec. 19, but that target is still awaiting review by the U.S. Air Force and NASA.

Whenever that demo launches, if all goes well, Dragon's next flight would be an operational cargo mission to the space station, SpaceX officials have said.


This still from a SpaceX video shows the company's Dragon space capsule firing thrusters during a powered descent as it aims for a vertical landing at its launch site. The plan is part of SpaceX's vision for a completely reusable rocket and spacecraft.
CREDIT: SpaceX
View full size imageDragon is also designed to be reusable, and SpaceX is modifying it to carry crew as well as supplies. The company hopes NASA eventually uses Dragon to launch its astronauts to low-Earth orbit. The country has lacked this capability since NASA's space shuttle fleet retired in July and currently depends on Russian Soyuz vehicles to provide this taxi service.

Musk did not say when he hopes the reusable rocket would be operational, or how much its development would cost. But SpaceX is going to give the enterprise its best shot.

"We have a design that on paper — doing the calculations, doing the simulations — it does work," Musk said. "Now we need to make sure those simulations and reality agree because generally, when they don't, reality wins."

Meanwhile for a bit further out, or closer if you feel pessimistic about commercial companies...

SLS mission schedule improving – Crewed Moon mission moving to 2019 | NASASpaceFlight.com

SLS mission schedule improving – Crewed Moon mission moving to 2019
September 30th, 2011 by Chris Bergin
With all cylinders now firing on NASA’s exploration planning effort, the development and early mission schedule for the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion are starting to fall into place, with dramatic improvements being worked for NASA’s opening crewed Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO) mission with the Orion (MPCV), which is moving to the left by two years.

SLS Missions:

Only one long term manifest for the SLS had been listed in recent months, showing the debut of the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLV) in 2017 – an unmanned mission around the moon – prior to a four year gap until the crewed version was to be launched.

That manifest showed that it would take until SLS-13 for the debut of the fully evolved 130mt version of the SLS, scheduled for 2032.

The schedule was rightly criticized. However, it was always represented as a worst case scenario manifest – not least because the full mission outline for the SLS launches was yet to be created. This work is currently ongoing under the leadership of former Space Shuttle Program (SSP) manager John Shannon.

The expected realization of an improved manifest is now starting to be fulfilled, just weeks after the SLS was officially announced, in turn allowing for a full test plan effort to be worked.

SLS-1, a 70mt version of the SLS, is still expected to debut in 2017, with a “crew capable” Orion (Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle) being sent on a test trip around the Moon. The 2021 debut of SLS/Orion for the crewed version of this mission is now being pushed to the left by two years, with a launch date of 2019.

The news came via notes associated with a meeting between SLS and Orion managers, which discussed the upcoming Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution (PPBE) process, in turn providing “high level guidance” to schedule planning.

“MOD (Mission Operations Directorate) is to prepare a bottoms up budget for an 2017 un-crewed circum lunar mission. MPCV (Orion) wants that vehicle to be crew capable. Additionally MPCV wants to pull the proposed 2021 manned mission to the left to 2019,” added the notes on L2, dated September 26. “MOD is also to prepare a budget for a 2019 crewed High Lunar Orbit mission.”

This realigned schedule effort slips the Orion Flight Test (OFT-1) – involving the MPCV being sent on a multi-orbit mission around the Earth via a Delta IV-H – to December, 2013. This slip of around six months had been expected for some time, and the test may yet slip into 2014.

The AA2 test – which involves an unmanned ascent abort test of Orion at MaxQ velocities – will follow the OFT-1 mission, although no date has yet been listed.

“The (new) schedule is OFT-1, Dec 2013. AA2 following that mission, then the 2017 and 2019 flight. Guidance from (managers) will be forth coming, as there is open work on procedure, displays, training, etc to support the purposed schedule.”

Unlike the Constellation Program (CxP) – which appeared to start with an unsustainable schedule, prior to almost yearly slips being noted during Program Milestone Reviews (PMRs) – sources note that all SLS mission schedules are being worked with large amounts of margin.

It has been noted that the crewed mission around the moon may even be advanced to 2018, one year after the debut SLS-1 launch, should funding projections remain stable over the coming years. Even with the two year advance to SLS-2, the downstream manifest is expected to improve to the point the evolved SLS may be ready “many years” ahead of the previous schedule.

However, no official notes – which would counter the long-term worst case scenario from SLS-3 onwards – have been published at this time.

SLS Development:

Although teams at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) had already moved from the study phase into the development phase, prior to the official SLS announcement – known as the RAC (Requirements Analysis Cycle) and DAC (Design Analysis Cycle) efforts, with a System Requirements Review (SRR)/Checkpoint Review later this month – there continues to be a notable increase of activity within the SLS related community.

At a public level, NASA leaders met with space flight companies on Thursday in what was known as the SLS industry day – used to discuss acquisition plans for NASA’s new flagship launch vehicle.

The meeting involved hundreds of representatives of aerospace industry companies, small businesses and independent entrepreneurs, hosted at MSFC, providing industry with an overview of the SLS Program and defined its near-term business requirements, including details of NASA’s acquisition strategy for procurement of critical hardware, systems and vehicle elements.

“We’re proud to be where we are today,” noted Marshall Center Director Robert Lightfoot, who used the opportunity to remind people just how much effort went into what turned out to be many, many months of seemingly endless trade studies into the SLS configuration.

“We’ve done the due diligence necessary to get to this point – thousands of configuration trades and studies – and now it’s time for us to start working on the hardware.”

Mr Lightfoot’s “time to start working on hardware” comment appeared to point to earlier comments he made about his frustration with the fallout during the FY2011 budget proposal and post Authorization Act timeframe.

At that time the MSFC leader intimated they had no need to go through yet another study, that they had the vehicle design, and that it was time to start building it – only to be put through several more months of studies, which resulted in the pre-FY2011 winning design of a Shuttle Derived (SD) HLV.

Delayed yet again by a decision to put the vehicle through a cost study, and then only announced days after the estimates had been reviewed, following pressure from several Senators, NASA’s administrator, Charlie Bolden, and deputy administrator, Lori Garver, often took the brunt of the accusations relating to “stalling tactics” - as much as it’s their job to follow orders from their political paymasters.

For SLS/HLV Articles, click here: HLV | NASASpaceFlight.com

Ironically, with SLS now officially announced, Ms Garver is now full of praise for the monster rocket.

“This is a milestone moment for NASA, for our industry partners and for our economy,” noted the Deputy Administrator Lori Garver. “We at NASA have worked hard the past year to analyse and select our Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and space launch systems designs.

“The SLS heavy-lift rocket will take American astronauts farther into space than any human has ever gone before. It will expand our knowledge of the universe, reap benefits to improve life on Earth, inspire millions around the world and create good jobs right here at home.”

Importantly, signs of progress at a program and engineering level are being seen, with an updated SLS presentation acquired by L2 this week, showing both MOD working their involvement into the program, whilst a proposed refinement of the SLS configuration was also shown for the first time (article upcoming).

This “trade study” effort is a natural element of the development drive, although it is encouraging that such changes are being made very early in the post-announcement timeframe, as opposed to Constellation’s continual design changes years into the program, which played a major role in causing delays to the overall schedule.

Yes, America's future in space is looking dismal indeed.

 

[desimorty]

Space is no longer something the US has a monopoly on. Japan is well capable of manned space missions and so is france. But the payoff is small. Instead it would be more prudent for nations to work together in space technology. Unfortunately for China, its not on the list of nations of have a mutual understanding with other space powers. China has no choice but to go at the space exploration alone, a costly venture. Eventually, leaving on China out of international space collaboration will cost the international community and that's when China gets it's foot in the door.

 

[amalakas]

US ??????


cHINA ????

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Space is no longer something the US has a monopoly on. Japan is well capable of manned space missions and so is france. But the payoff is small. Instead it would be more prudent for nations to work together in space technology. Unfortunately for China, its not on the list of nations of have a mutual understanding with other space powers. China has no choice but to go at the space exploration alone, a costly venture. Eventually, leaving on China out of international space collaboration will cost the international community and that's when China gets it's foot in the door.

Japan and others would have done this long before if they have such capability.

The manned mission is a huge difference with the unmanned mission.

The life support systems and the reliability that grants the safety of the astronauts simply require a tremendous amount of work.

 

[desimorty]

Japan and others would have done this long before if they have such capability.

The manned mission is a huge difference with the unmanned mission.

The life support systems and the reliability that grants the safety of the astronauts simply require a tremendous amount of work.

Whats your point? France or Japan can not do a manned mission?
I say yes, as France and Japan would say. The problem being that they wouldn't be able to justify a manned mission. Its not about the life support alone, its about the tonnage you can send into LEO. Japan has the capability, but they don't need such a thing, it is far cheaper to send a astronut through NASA, the same applies for France.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Whats your point? France or Japan can not do a manned mission?
I say yes, as France and Japan would say. The problem being that they wouldn't be able to justify a manned mission. Its not about the life support alone, its about the tonnage you can send into LEO. Japan has the capability, but they don't need such a thing, it is far cheaper to send a astronut through NASA, the same applies for France.

Of course, they can't.

You may arguably say that they built better cars and civilian electronics than us, but when it comes to the space program and aerospace industry, they are not even remotely close.

Just see they can't build anything close to J-20 that all pretty sum up my points.

 

[desimorty]

Of course, they can't.

You may arguably say that they built better cars and civilian electronics than us, but when it comes to the space program and aerospace industry, they are not even remotely close.

Just see they can't build anything close to J-20 that all pretty sum up my points.

What? What do you know about their industry? I didn't say its because they can build a Honda but rather they have had the capability to launch a tonnage into space since the 80's especially france. They never went ahead with a manned mission program. SO the french and japanese can't biuld a J-20 so they don't have the know on how to send humans to space? your special. I'm done. I think I made my points. BTW the Japanese T-90 tank and their newer tanks are far more advanced than what the Chinese have or even Russians, they also have AESA radars that are more mature than the Rusiians.