Gwadar’s Contribution to Pakistan’s GDP to Cross $200 Billion by 2050

[Haris Ali2140]

and what do you observe?

Project managers are Chinese. Other than that everyone is local from machinery operators to labor.

 

[V. Makarov]

$200B out of $500B isn't paltry lol.....that's 40% of your GDP, if the GDP is $300B by 2050...which it won't....but yes, $200B is very low at around 2050.

By 2050, I think the overall GDP will increase to about 750 billion usd. The contribution of the city of Gwadar will be around $150 billion. The rest of the increase in the GDP would be from industrialization. In this situation Gwadar's own contribution would be significant but still not as large as the one coming from Pakistani exports and manufacturing industry. Maybe 50-60 years down the road, Gwadar might become a very big Economic center like the Shenzhen in China but in the coming 20-30 years, all of the GDP growth will be attributed to the growing manufacturing sector.

However you are right, if Pakistan fails to industrialize and is not able to attract FDI due to political uncertainty and other chutyapas , then definitely Pakistan's GDP would increase to only 550 billion usd. Then Gwadar's contribution would be significant because the rest of the country would be doing nothing.

The percentage contribution of Gwadar's GDP in the future will be a great indicator of showing whether Pakistan has been able to industrialize or not. I expect the current govt. to systematically work to industrialize Pakistan. Pakistan should also work hard to take the benefit of a developed port of Gwadar or else only Chinese products would be exported to the Middle East and Europe from that port. I wish to see large number of Pakistani items reaching far and wide into the west.

 

[Itachi]

Project managers are Chinese. Other than that everyone is local from machinery operators to labor.

Well, I'm not on the ground but there can be exceptions to the rule. Sources say that there are upto 10k Chinese in Pakistan.

By 2050, I think the overall GDP will increase to about 750 billion usd. The contribution of the city of Gwadar will be around $150 billion. The rest of the increase in the GDP would be from industrialization. In this situation Gwadar's own contribution would be significant but still not as large as the one coming from Pakistani exports and manufacturing industry. Maybe 50-60 years down the road, Gwadar might become a very big Economic center like the Shenzhen in China but in the coming 20-30 years, all of the GDP growth will be attributed to the growing manufacturing sector.

However you are right, if Pakistan fails to industrialize and is not able to attract FDI due to political uncertainty and other chutyapas , then definitely Pakistan's GDP would increase to only 550 billion usd. Then Gwadar's contribution would be significant because the rest of the country would be doing nothing.

The percentage contribution of Gwadar's GDP in the future will be a great indicator of showing whether Pakistan has been able to industrialize or not. I expect the current govt. to systematically work to industrialize Pakistan. Pakistan should also work hard to take the benefit of a developed port of Gwadar or else only Chinese products would be exported to the Middle East and Europe from that port. I wish to see large number of Pakistani items reaching far and wide into the west.

I don't see the future but by 2050...anything less than 1T, heck 2T, is pretty low for Pakistan imo...

For example, in the image above/in thumbnail, you can see the rise in Indias GDP from less than 1T in 2000, to more than 2T by now, in 20 years. Similarly, UK's went from ~1.6/7T to 2.6T....now remember, UK's pop. is way smaller than us and it has no port like Pakistan that lies on a strategically important location like Gwadar, which also feeds a economy like China....so the combo should help us make more $$$ than what the article predicts.

 

[Haris Ali2140]

Well, I'm not on the ground but there can be exceptions to the rule. Sources say that there are upto 10k Chinese in Pakistan.

In last five years we have gone from 16 hours of no electricity to 24 hours of electricity. 5 years ago we had only 4 motorways. Now we have more than 14. And Chinese are not only involved in CPEC. There are hundreds of other Chinese companies in various sectors and they will always have some Chinese working in them.

 

[Itachi]

The percentage contribution of Gwadar's GDP in the future will be a great indicator of showing whether Pakistan has been able to industrialize or not. I expect the current govt. to systematically work to industrialize Pakistan. Pakistan should also work hard to take the benefit of a developed port of Gwadar or else only Chinese products would be exported to the Middle East and Europe from that port. I wish to see large number of Pakistani items reaching far and wide into the west.

I fully agree on this part....the Chinese are already capitalizing on Gwadar by using it to ship their products to ME, Africa & Europe......while avoiding the SCS!!

Remember, one of the major reasons why they need Pakistan, and Gwadar, is because they don't have to be dependent on SCS (South China Sea) route to bring in imports like oil, raw materials etc etc

So we should definitely capitalize on this rather than taking idiotic measures like giving them control of Gwadar for next 40 years...

 

[Haris Ali2140]

Well, I'm not on the ground but there can be exceptions to the rule. Sources say that there are upto 10k Chinese in Pakistan.



I don't see the future but by 2050...anything less than 1T, heck 2T, is pretty low for Pakistan imo...

View attachment 595253

For example, in the image above/in thumbnail, you can see the rise in Indias GDP from less than 1T in 2000, to more than 2T by now, in 20 years. Similarly, UK's went from ~1.6/7T to 2.6T....now remember, UK's pop. is way smaller than us and it has no port like Pakistan that lies on a strategically important location like Gwadar, which also feeds a economy like China....so the combo should help us make more $$$ than what the article predicts.

It all depends upon Pakistan. If they utilize it well we can reclaim the title of Asian Tiger. If we fail we will start blaming Chinese like we blame Americans now.

 

[Itachi]

In last five years we have gone from 16 hours of no electricity to 24 hours of electricity. 5 years ago we had only 4 motorways. Now we have more than 14. And Chinese are not only involved in CPEC. There are hundreds of other Chinese companies in various sectors and they will always have some Chinese working in them.

Failure of past Pakistani governments...not the miracle of the Chinese, in regards to the electricity problem.

As for the motorways, I applaud the Chinese but if you don't see the different ways that Pakistan is getting the shorter end of the stick, well I can't help you there.

 

[Haris Ali2140]

Failure of past Pakistani governments...not the miracle of the Chinese, in regards to the electricity problem.

As for the motorways, I applaud the Chinese but if you don't see the different ways that Pakistan is getting the shorter end of the stick, well I can't help you there.

Well Chinese provided the loan when no one came. It was the shorter end on nothing else.
As they say,"A bird in Hand is worth two in the bush".

 

[Itachi]

It all depends upon Pakistan. If they utilize it well we can reclaim the title of Asian Tiger. If we fail we will start blaming Chinese like we blame Americans now.

Nah, US never helped Pakistan like China....it gave aid yes but it took back more than what it took, way more.

China is similar although gives and takes almost equally but almost isn't good enough when you're talking in Billions of $$$. And the future is unpredictable too.

China is getting a route safer than SCS too. We're literally protecting their merchant ships from being blown away from USN (US Navy) in case of warfare. And helping them develop their Western Region, which helps them move assets away from their coast in the East too.

There are many many dimensions to CPEC & OBOR.....and I have only lightly touched upon OBOR...that's where the whole issue lies....it'll give China dominance in the region like never before. One even greater than anything even US had.....and remember, it's a zero sum game.....if someone gain power, someone else loses it.

We already see the political power China has over Pakistan....what's next if that increases?

Well Chinese provided the loan when no one came. It was the shorter end on nothing else.
As they say,"A bird in Hand is worth two in the bush".

Well the loan isn't much of a problem since it can be paid back...but they own the revenues of Gwadar for the next 40 years! at a high percentage too!

Also, the reason they came while no one else did is touched upon above too. Basically, they need Gwadar, as a backup &/or as a supplement if they don't want their economy to be chokeholded in the SCS by USN.

You can see even see it as us, the Pakistanis & the govt., holding more leverage over them...as opposed to what is commonly believed.

But only if the govt. and it's workers have any spine.

 

[Haris Ali2140]

Nah, US never helped Pakistan like China....it gave aid yes but it took back more than what it took, way more.

China is similar although gives and takes almost equally but almost isn't good enough when you're talking in Billions of $$$. And the future is unpredictable too.

China is getting a route safer than SCS too. We're literally protecting their merchant ships from being blown away from USN (US Navy) in case of warfare. And helping them develop their Western Region, which helps them move assets away from their coast in the East too.

There are many many dimensions to CPEC & OBOR.....and I have only lightly touched upon OBOR...that's where the whole issue lies....it'll give China dominance in the region like never before. One even greater than anything even US had.....and remember, it's a zero sum game.....if someone gain power, someone else loses it.

We already see the political power China has over Pakistan....what's next if that increases?



Well the loan isn't much of a problem since it can be paid back...but they own the revenues of Gwadar for the next 40 years! at a high percentage too!

Also, the reason they came while no one else did is touched upon above too. Basically, they need Gwadar, as a backup &/or as a supplement if they don't want their economy to be chokeholded in the SCS by USN.

You can see even see it as us, the Pakistanis & the govt., holding more leverage over them...as opposed to what is commonly believed.

But only if the govt. and it's workers have any spine.

So it all depends on Pakistanis how they utilizes their cards.

 

[That Guy]

Doubt it. If its CPEC as a whole, maybe.

While I do think that Gwadar will eventually become another major economic cash cow for pakistan, like Karachi, I doubt its gonna occur in just 30/31 years.

 

[Lincoln]

View attachment 595244

The current GDP of Pakistan is $305 billion. You are saying that it will "increase" to $200 billion in 2050 (30 years from now)?

It's saying what ever the gdp will be by 2050, $200 bil of that would've come gwadar

 

[Itachi]

So it all depends on Pakistanis how they utilizes their cards.

Yes but do they even realize that they hold cards up their sleeves?

As of right now, they're acting the same way as they worked with the US; afraid of to speak up against their partner, have done some deals that aren't beneficial to us like giving the Chinese operating power over Gwadar over the next 40 years!, the ratio of revenue is pretty bad, in my opinion, also....hopefully we can renegotiate some deals.

Also, there has been much secrecy around the actual agreements in CPEC, no one but a few know what the agreements, the points of the agreements and so on are. In my opinion, the public should at least know more about what we gave up for the economic prosperity we're experiencing or should be experiencing.

 

[That Guy]

By 2050, I think the overall GDP will increase to about 750 billion usd. The contribution of the city of Gwadar will be around $150 billion. The rest of the increase in the GDP would be from industrialization. In this situation Gwadar's own contribution would be significant but still not as large as the one coming from Pakistani exports and manufacturing industry. Maybe 50-60 years down the road, Gwadar might become a very big Economic center like the Shenzhen in China but in the coming 20-30 years, all of the GDP growth will be attributed to the growing manufacturing sector.

However you are right, if Pakistan fails to industrialize and is not able to attract FDI due to political uncertainty and other chutyapas , then definitely Pakistan's GDP would increase to only 550 billion usd. Then Gwadar's contribution would be significant because the rest of the country would be doing nothing.

The percentage contribution of Gwadar's GDP in the future will be a great indicator of showing whether Pakistan has been able to industrialize or not. I expect the current govt. to systematically work to industrialize Pakistan. Pakistan should also work hard to take the benefit of a developed port of Gwadar or else only Chinese products would be exported to the Middle East and Europe from that port. I wish to see large number of Pakistani items reaching far and wide into the west.

Most financial institutions and economists put Pakistan's GDP to be between 1.5 to 3.5 trillion by 2050, depending on how slow/fast Pakistan's economy grows.