Govt turned banking sector an orphan: CPD

[bluesky]

Govt turns banking sector into an orphan: CPD
FE Online Report | Published: April 17, 2018 15:11:16 | Updated: April 17, 2018 20:12:14

Country's veteran economist Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya is seen in this internet photo

Private think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has termed the country's banking sector as an 'orphan' due to continual abuse of the government.

While presenting the budget recommendations for Fiscal Year 2018-19 at city's CIRDAP auditorium on Tuesday, CPD's distinguished fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya said the government -- the protector of the banking sector -- abused it and made it into an orphan.

He also said the country is experiencing 'income less employment' as unemployment rate increased among the educated group of people, among the female, and population living in the country's rural area.

Dr Bhattacharya urged the government for keeping a tight rein on interest rates, exchange rates of currency, and credit flow.

He also expressed his fears of a capital flight through import of capital goods ahead of the national elections.

The veteran economist said banking sector, capital market, and import activities should be monitored closely by the government.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, a research fellow at CPD, recommended to increase the tax-free threshold for individual taxpayers to Tk 0.3 million from existing Tk 2,50,000 and cut the rate of minimum tax slab to 7.5 per cent from existing 10 per cent.

He projected Tk 500 billion shortfall in the government's revenue collection, both tax and non-tax in the current fiscal year.

 

[bluesky]

He also said the country is experiencing 'income less employment' as unemployment rate increased among the educated group of people, among the female, and population living in the country's rural area.

@UKBengali, @Homo Sapiens: By reading the news account, It seems that the Center for Policy Dialogue has been hijacked by @idune. What is your opinion? One thing I must also ask you. Usually, the exchange rate of a currency goes upward when the economic growth is robust. But, why it is that the Shonar Bangla Taka has depreciated to the level of $1.00= Tk.84.00 from the previous 78 Taka when you talk about the GDP growth @7.65%? Can you guys tell us the deep meaning of this opposite effect?
@Nilgiri

 

[Homo Sapiens]

@UKBengali, @Homo Sapiens: By reading the news account, It seems that the Center for Policy Dialogue has been hijacked by @idune. What is your opinion? One thing I must also ask you. Usually, the exchange rate of a currency goes upward when the economic growth is robust. But, why it is that the Shonar Bangla Taka has depreciated to the level of $1.00= Tk.84.00 from the previous 78 Taka when you talk about the GDP growth @7.65%? Can you guys tell us the deep meaning of this opposite effect?
@Nilgiri

I am not interested to do mud sliding with you. I am positive about the future of Bangladesh not because govt. claimed so but because personally I see many positive indicators are at play in Bangladesh which will propel the growth of this country and due to the fact that, all the international institutions which we use as a reference point also maintain positive outlook for Bangladesh.

Some of those positive indicators I have mentioned in a post Bangladesh GDP 286 billion USD, Per capita 1,733 USD in 2018.few days ago.There are also some other factors which will works in favor of Bangladesh which I had not mentioned there related to geographic and neighborhood advantage .And for reference, IMF in their forecast up to 2023, held the opinion that Bangladesh will continue to grow at average 7 percent up to 2023.There is a slight possibility that it may not materialize in some unexpected reasons, as future can not be predicted with 100 percent precision, but I would rather believe them than disbelieve. If you want to believe that Bangladesh will fail no matter what, then it is entirely within the limit of your freedoms. I am least bothered about it.

 

[UKBengali]

@UKBengali, @Homo Sapiens: By reading the news account, It seems that the Center for Policy Dialogue has been hijacked by @idune. What is your opinion? One thing I must also ask you. Usually, the exchange rate of a currency goes upward when the economic growth is robust. But, why it is that the Shonar Bangla Taka has depreciated to the level of $1.00= Tk.84.00 from the previous 78 Taka when you talk about the GDP growth @7.65%? Can you guys tell us the deep meaning of this opposite effect?
@Nilgiri

Not really. A developing country that is reliant on exports likes to have a weak currency in order to be able to increase exports.

Around 45 Indian Rupees were worth 1 US dollar in the 2000s and now it is around 65 Rupees to 1 dollar this decade. So if the value of the currency is related to economic growth then both BD and India are lying!

As I have explained to your new friend @Nilgiri , since BD GDP per capita at PPP is rising at the same rate as India, then BD must be telling the truth for GDP growth or both BD and India are lying.

You say you are a civil engineer but I notice that you do not seem to understand simple arithmetic?

But I do not believe that, Bangladesh as well as entire South Asia can become highly developed countries like USA, Australia or Germany due to the fact that south Asian countries are highly overpopulated and has a low per capita resource base. but these countries has potential to become developed countries of lower rug like Portugal, Greece or Poland. If you want to believe, Bangladesh will fail no matter what, then it is entirely within the limit of your freedoms. I am least bothered about it.

I am optimistic that with proper investment in human resource allocation and full economic links between all countries in S Asia, then it will be possible for BD to one day become as highly developed as the richest countries like Germany and Japan. In the future a lot of energy will be produced mainly by renewable like nuclear, hydro, solar and wind and there will be mass recycling of basic materials like plastics and steel with advanced technology.

 

[UKBengali]

Yes, it is entirely possible in a long term.But for that to happen we(south asians) need to stabilize our population at 700 million(like Europe). It will be very difficult, almost impossible to become highly developed with staggering 2 billion people in south asia with roughly same landmass and resource base as EU.If south asian countries can maintain very low fertility for 100 years, then it's 2 billion people will reduce to a manageable 700 million and the region can become as developed as the USA or Germany long term.Until that happen, we have to be content with 25,000-30,000 current ppp dollar per capita income(like Portugal, Greece,Poland, Turkey). Even this level of prosperity is very good.You will not see much difference of infrastructure or people's lifestyle between highly developed and these borderline developed countries.At least, it will not be visible with the naked eyes.

Do not think you read my post properly.

With almost unlimited power and advanced technology to allow recycling of raw materials like steel and plastics, resource base will not count as much in the future as there will be not be this resource-constraint as there is now.

As long as there is the correct focus on human resources and South Asian countries have the necessary economic links then no reason they cannot be as developed as any other country in the world.

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Do not think you read my post properly.

With almost unlimited power and advanced technology to allow recycling of raw materials like steel and plastics, resource base will not count as much in the future as there will be not be this resource-constraint as there is now.

As long as there is the correct focus on human resources and South Asian countries have the necessary economic links then no reason they cannot be as developed as any other country in the world.

Let's hope mankind achieve breakthrough in getting nuclear fusion energy.If that happen, then mankind will never ever face any energy or metal shortage or limit to growth.I am not sure whether currently known renewable(Hydro, solar, wind) will be able to give us unlimited amount of energy.

 

[bluesky]

Not really. A developing country that is reliant on exports likes to have a weak currency in order to be able to increase exports.

Around 45 Indian Rupees were worth 1 US dollar in the 2000s and now it is around 65 Rupees to 1 dollar this decade. So if the value of the currency is related to economic growth then both BD and India are lying!

When a country exports and again imports almost the same amount or above the export, the currency depreciates. It is happening to BD. It is 84 to a dollar. It was 78 only a few months before. It shows a weak economy.

Do not talk about Indian currency. You probably do not know BD currency was also 30 Taka to a dollar. Indian example is irrelevant. My point is if BD economy is really progressing, then why its currency is depreciating instead of appreciating? Think of Japanese and Chinese currencies. They appreciate when the economy goes up. It is very normal.

BD data are lies and fraudulent no doubt, I am not sure about Indian data. But, India builds buses, trucks, cars, railway coaches, freight trains etc. among others. India engineers are capable to build barrages, dams, bridges, tunnels, elevated highways etc. How about Shonar BD people, can they do anything like the Indians can do? We just should not compare BD progress with the Indian one.

You say you are a civil engineer but I notice that you do not seem to understand simple arithmetic?

I am not an engineer of any disciplne, I never claimed anything falsely. I am an almost uneducated or a self-educated man without even a single basic certificate. However, about simple math you will never come close to me. Note one point. You have a very simplistic approach about the national development process.

 

[Skies]

I am optimistic that with proper investment in human resource allocation and full economic links between all countries in S Asia, then it will be possible for BD to one day become as highly developed as the richest countries like Germany and Japan. In the future a lot of energy will be produced mainly by renewable like nuclear, hydro, solar and wind and there will be mass recycling of basic materials like plastics and steel with advanced technology.

What human resource allocation? Where is the new job vacancy?

If the DSE market cap is not increasing enough, it also implies not enough new job creation.

I think we need more information on job creation to find the political lies.


And Germany and Japan ? Really?!

.

 

[Nilgiri]

since BD GDP per capita at PPP is rising at the same rate as India, then BD must be telling the truth for GDP growth

Nope. I have already told you Nominal and PPP are nowhere near 1:1 correlation even within one country's growth...and here you are trying to compare 2 yet again. Frankly you are just focking stupid. The end.

 

[Nilgiri]

@UKBengali, @Homo Sapiens: By reading the news account, It seems that the Center for Policy Dialogue has been hijacked by @idune. What is your opinion? One thing I must also ask you. Usually, the exchange rate of a currency goes upward when the economic growth is robust. But, why it is that the Shonar Bangla Taka has depreciated to the level of $1.00= Tk.84.00 from the previous 78 Taka when you talk about the GDP growth @7.65%? Can you guys tell us the deep meaning of this opposite effect?
@Nilgiri

Relatively easy answer:

There are other CA components (services, remittances etc) but they seem to be holding more or less steady compared to merchandise exchange situation (esp if you account for the employment sensitivities in what BD exports, thus BD central bank has little lee-way to hold any over-valuation).

 

[UKBengali]

Nope. I have already told you Nominal and PPP are nowhere near 1:1 correlation even within one country's growth...and here you are trying to compare 2 yet again. Frankly you are just focking stupid. The end.

Think you are the stupid one here.

Indian and BD GDP per capita PPP are growing at the same rate since the year 2000 - cannot be bothered to pull out IMF figures as it is very late in UK and I need to go to sleep soon.

If you cannot understand this, then not my fault bud.

 

[bluesky]

I am optimistic that with proper investment in human resource allocation and full economic links between all countries in S Asia, then it will be possible for BD to one day become as highly developed as the richest countries like Germany and Japan. In the future a lot of energy will be produced mainly by renewable like nuclear, hydro, solar and wind and there will be mass recycling of basic materials like plastics and steel with advanced technology.

Have you ever been to a developed country to know about the components of development? You are talking here of high technology. But, build at least the low technology sewing machines and needles needed in the textile sector. How about producing steel nails in BD that do not bend at the first strike of a hammer. All are imported from China and you are here day dreaming of advanced technology. When BD will develop such technologies? Oh!! You guys love the word ToT. So, which country is giving BD the ToT?

 

[Homo Sapiens]

Have you ever been to a developed country to know about the components of development?

You seems to have forgotten his two flag in his profile.

In this age of high speed Internet, it is not too difficult to gasp of what a developed country look like or study their development component.So you are lame repeating this phrase so often.

You seems to be stuck in 1960s and 1970s, when the world was clearly divided among three blocks with minimal information flow among them.

 

[Al-zakir]

Most successful private Bank, The Bangladesh Islamic Bank on life support just in year since Awami daku took over this bank by force. All the hard work by Islamist has gone to drain.

Bd people will realize how broke their country went once Awami daku league leave the scene.

 

[Nilgiri]

Think you are the stupid one here.

Indian and BD GDP per capita PPP are growing at the same rate since the year 2000 - cannot be bothered to pull out IMF figures as it is very late in UK and I need to go to sleep soon.

If you cannot understand this, then not my fault bud.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/f....&br=1&c=513,564,534&s=NGDPDPC,PPPPC&grp=0&a=

Over the last 5 years or so (2012 - 2017):

BD claimed to grow its nominal per capita by 75%, but its PPP increased by 41% only. (Total difference = 34% in the wrong direction)

Compare this for India in same time period: 34% increase in nominal per capita, but 43% increase in PPP (total difference = 9% in the right direction)

Pakistan: 23% increase in nominal, 21% increase in PPP (2 % in the wrong direction)

Right and wrong direction is governed by the overall direction of trade, investment from foreign liquidity pools (i.e delta imprint of their local currency vis a vis global reference the USD) for this region from the world....i.e Consumption/Foreign CA/ Cap A trends.

Heck compare to your own self since you want to go back to 2000:

From 2000 to 2012 for BD:

122% in nominal per capita, 119% for PPP. (only a 3% difference).

So don't frigging launder into a whole time period the BS that's going on now (in last 5 or so years) w.r.t BBS crap (CLEARLY showing up in the household income stagnation)...Bangladesh now is laundering a magnitude more inflation into its nominal than before (and compared to regional peers by far), its crystal clear.

@Skies @Ashes @Tanveer666 @bluesky @Chak Bamu @Xlvee01 @django @Zibago