Goldman Sachs Projects Pakistan Economy to Become the World's 6th Largest by 2075
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Goldman Sachs Projects Pakistan Economy to Become the World's 6th Largest by 2075
Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. In a ...www.southasiainvestor.com
Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. The authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100. India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300. By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th.
GDP Ranking Changes Till 2075. Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Economic Impact of Slower Population Growth:
Daly and Gedminas argue that slowing population growth in the developed world is causing their economic growth to decelerate. At the same time, the economies of the developing countries are driven by their rising populations. Here are four key points made in the report:
1) Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth.
2) EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth.
3) A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated.
4) Less global inequality, more local inequality.
Demographic Dividend:
With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting country where the working age population is still rising faster than the birth rate.
Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade.
World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:
Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico. Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan. Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups.
Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis:
Pakistan is already seeing high levels of labor export and record remittances of over $30 billion pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.
Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.
Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.
Pakistan Demographics
About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances.
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Goldman Sachs Projects Pakistan Economy to Become the World's 6th Largest by 2075
Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. In a ...
I would be 83 in year 2075.
Titanium100
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In last 65 years (1952-2018), #Pakistan's #GDP growth rate has averaged 4.92%, reaching an all time high of 10.22% in 1954 & a record low of -1.80% in 1952. If Pakistan continues to average 4.92% over the next 53 years until 2075, it will be $4.9 trillion GDP in today's dollars
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$1 in 2021 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $5.27 in 2075, an increase of $4.27 over 54 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.13% per year between 2021 and 2075, producing a cumulative price increase of 426.85%. The buying power of $1 in 2021 is predicted to be equivalent to $5.27 in 2075.
2075 Inflation Prediction | Future Inflation Calculator
US inflation predictor. See what inflation and purchasing power will look like in 2075.www.in2013dollars.com
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Multiplying $4.9 trillion in today's dollars by 5.27 gives us $25.8 trillion in 2075 dollars.
Finally a guy who understand this...
This is a natural economy growth dynamic it has nothing to do with wrongs or rights
SoulSpokesman
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A major factor in Goldman Sachs 2075 forecast is the change in working age population between now and 2075. The GDP of countries like Nigeria and Pakistan with rising working age populations will grow faster. That's also the reason why countries in Europe and East Asia will see slower growth.
GS forecasts Bangladesh economy to be about $6.3 trillion with per capita income of $31,000 in 2075.
The projected size of BD economy ($6.3 trillion) is about half of Pakistan's ($12.7 trillion) but BD will have higher per capita income ($31,000) than Pakistan's ($27,100).
SoulSpokesman
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@RiazHaq
Thanks Brofessor sb. There is another thing I notice. Right now the differential between IND/BD and PAK GDP per capita is almost 40%- 2200 v/s 1600. But by 2075, it is converging to less than 10%. Obviously GS sees Pak doing much better in the growth department (even after adjusting for population growth) than IND/BD. Presumably, they are looking at a higher working age population for Pak as compared to IND/BD.
Regards
Thanks Brofessor sb. There is another thing I notice. Right now the differential between IND/BD and PAK GDP per capita is almost 40%- 2200 v/s 1600. But by 2075, it is converging to less than 10%. Obviously GS sees Pak doing much better in the growth department (even after adjusting for population growth) than IND/BD. Presumably, they are looking at a higher working age population for Pak as compared to IND/BD.
Regards
Yes, higher working age population as percentage of the total population.
With a bigger percentage of population is working age and fewer children and retired people, there is an increase in economic activity and output. It's called "demographic dividend".
Pakistan's Demographic Dividend: Record Remittances From Overseas Workers
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Enigma SIG
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There will only be brain dead people in Pakistan by 2075 who will vote Sher. All people looking for greener grass will be moving their kids out of this cuntry. I am in the process right now.
There's a lot more to Pakistan than Sharif and Zardari. Pakistan will do well in spite of its self-serving politicians.
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